I'm going to keep an eye on the put warrant. Esok, dalam sebulan-dua ni rasa-rasa tinggi lagi - investment bank mesti nak cuba pau mahal. Call warrants pun sama sebab expiry date lama lagi. Nak kena tengok Astro camana minggu depan, lepas tu decide call atau put. Atau dua-dua tidak... tunggu investment bank yang lain punya. Kalau ada rezeki dapat harga baik, lepas tu dia perform, warrants ni boleh dapat 50% lebih profit. Silap masuk, boleh kena ketuk 50% Haha!

TA Securities has come up with this TP for Sime - 11.46! http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/11296.jsp These analysts from the various investment banks have had their hits and misses but if this one does get to the TP before the CR expires, this could turn out to be the best trade I've ever made.

The Edge's latest weekly (Oct 29-Nov 4, 2012) has Astro as the main story, with 3 pages. But the content is rather disappointing. You'd gain more knowledge and insight by reading the comments here. Feel that I had wasted my RM5 with this issue, which could have been better spent on Maggi goreng at Subaidah Section 6, Kota Damansara:-P

The beauty of the stockmarket is this - put one's money where his mouth is and either make a profit or loss (or maybe break even). There's a relatively inexpensive way to do this i.e. via the call and put warrants. If you think Astro will be going to the dumps, why not buy the put warrants? Going to see how they go tomorrow when they are listed.

Don't know how to benefit from this yet. The put warrant at 2.28 is too low plus a 4:1 ratio. I don't think it will get that low. But then who knows. It's the same with JCY's put warrant - at one time had thought it was unlikely one could ever strike in that it could go that low. It did.

Have just seen this notice in today's NST: AmBank is coming up with three Astro call warrants and one put warrant. (Also one each CW for TopGlove and Litrak). Listing 29/10/12; Expiry 28/10/13.

ASTRO
CW (I) - Ratio 8:1; Ex Price RM2.88
CW (II) - 5:1; 3.35
CW (III) - 5:1; 4.18

PW - 4:1; 2.28

It's easy for me to say this because I don't have any and there am not facing the same situation as those who do. But maybe we should just step back a bit and not look too closely at what's immediately ahead of us...?

Although I feel the 3.00 IPO is overpriced, at the same time it's not grossly so. Quite unlike Facebook where even a relative newbie who knows just a bit of fundamental analysis would confidently opine that its US$38 IPO was too high. No one can deny that Astro is one of those companies that can rely on regular revenue in the coming quarters and next few years, at least. They only need to try increase this while keeping operating costs as low as possible.

The projected 2-3% dividend yield is low, that's true (one can do better with YTL or YTLP, for instance). But for some institutions, that might be tolerable enough, especially those that want to invest in `safe' companies.

It's difficult to try and see ahead when we are glued to the trading screen, watching the second-by-second transactions. Many people have just a one-to-three days timeframe, like a contra trader - that's too short! But if we have a longer timeframe and horizon of, say six months - after the dust has settled down and with the year-end window-dressing period, traditional Chinese New Year rally etc. who's to say it can't reach the 3.40 TP as projected by some analysts? Or more?

There's no guarantee that will happen in the next 6 months, of course. But we all know things can change very fast in the stockmarket when there's momentum. Seemingly `useless' counters can turn to gold. Doesn't look like it *at the moment* with Astro. But that's also how it was was with Digi (4.01 not too long ago), Axiata (5.20 on 3/4/12), Scomi (0.21 some weeks ago - would have made a 100% gain had you bought and held on).

HAHA! But that's how it is with the sharks who made billions - it has to come from *somebody*. Would they really care if it's from their own employees' pockets, from subscribers, from little old ladies' retirement fund? Nope.

No smarter than the average trader, really. Most of us here can spot the counters that have potential. But why do our results i.e. the bottomlines tend to be vastly different percentage-wise (have to use percentage because the capitals are different) even when we are more or less the same when it comes to "being smart"?

I'm trying to figure out what it is that sets apart those who make exceptional gains, significant gains, average gains, less-than-average and losses (this one also has different grades). "Luck", yes, of course. But there are other factors - temperament is one, which includes the ability to wait (i.e. have patience). Then there's the need to acknowledge that one had made a mistake and immediately rectify something instead of just letting it be. Open-minded while being firm with one's beliefs, humility, generosity - these are the factors that separate the big winners from the typical smart person.

Anyway, back to the real topic - I've never been able to get more at 0.36 either. But there was one time a few weeks ago when it went as low as 0.33. Those who bought at this price are in a comfortable position now. It's great whenever a counter which we bought immediately goes up and up. But often it's not straightforward with small ups and downs, until it goes up and up. With MK Land, I believe it has this potential. The question is WHEN. I certainly don't know. But I want to be there when it happens, so that means having the patience and wait... and wait some more.

YHChan, you know, maybe those traders are on to something. They'd take a 0.015-0.02 sen profit... and then buy again when it gets back to 0.36/0.365 which looks to be a very strong support. I think I'll play along with them - buy more lots specifically to trade and make 2 sen profit while keeping the present lots for a big payday (minimum 0.10 sen profit). This way I won't get too frustrated whenever the price slips back to 0.36.

Really kacau daun - when it builds up steam and goes on an upward trend, many start taking small profits at the 0.38 level. But I'm going to be patient and not let this make me exasperated. The same thing had happened to TH Heavy a few months ago when it would often trip at 0.44. But after that it just went up and up. MK Land has the same potential.

Slow and steady rise. This is what investors like (but not traders). Doesn't have to be spectacular, just bit by bit and then defend the gains. A roadblock at 3.30 but I think this one will be cleared easier than the previous 2.20. One good thing about IHH right now is that those who wanted to sell had already done so. Now it's mostly held by those who are in for the longer term. TP - 3.35 by 31/10/12.

shirley, a bit off-topic from your comments actually -- Maybe we should have a re-think and re-definition of this term of "penny stock". Technically, by BSKL's definition, it's anything and everything that's under 1.00. With investors, it's loosely used and vague - some people refer to BSKL's definition, some think of penny stocks as "those that are speculative" (and are often of lesser quality).

However, there are many counters that are by definition "penny stock" but are of quality. The one that comes to mind immediately is Perisai, before it broke the 1.00 barrier. JCY, despite the sharp fall, is actually of some quality. And what about Scomi? Penny stock by definition but you certainly put them in the same class as Cybert & company.

Anyway, sometimes waiting might not work with some of the so-called quality counters and blue chips. That's especially when you had bought something near its high, and then it goes down. There's no guarantee it will reach its former lofty height again, that's the problem. As I mentioned in the earlier comment, there's no sure-fire method or counter here.

And back to the main point as first stated by @millionaire, penny or quality, I'd say it's the TIMING of it all that counts the most. And it's something that we won't know for sure whether we've gotten right until later. During the times that we don't (which will happen time and again for us), the next-best thing to do is wait.

@fadhlullah, some people claim they can time the market with technical analysis. I'm not so sure. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. It's the same with gut feeling, unscientific as it is. There's no sure-fire way to time it, in my opinion. So we'll have to do the next best thing - do our homework with research, discussion, some TA, make a decision... and then wait.

The "wait" part is crucial. Sometimes when we are lucky, a counter goes up immediately after that. And after we sell, it then goes down. But often, our trades might not work immediately so this is where the waiting part comes in. If we have done our homework, we must then remain committed to it i.e. in not wavering and sell to cut loss just because it had gone down a few sen. Unless if some variable had changed - new information of business problems, general market changing etc.... fundamental reasons.

From my observation and experience, often, the main factor that separates one who makes a profit from the market and another who makes losses over a given period of time is that the former has patience; the ability to sit down and wait things out. The latter who lacks this would think he's `missing the action' because his counter isn't performing (and comparing it to the star-of-the-week). So he sells at a loss just to buy something else. And there's no guarantee the following trade will be profitable immediately. A few weeks later, his previous counter finally wakes up whereas his newer trade doesn't go anywhere. So he sells to buy something new... again.

Actually that was also how I was some years ago. Would have made profits with my selections (which were well researched)... *if only* I had waited instead of selling at a loss just so I can buy other counters.

@millionaire, that's how it works. If we can just get a bit ahead of the crowd with both buying and selling, we're set. Those guys who bought yesterday - they did very well. And also those with UEMLand - they did even better. Especially with the warrants. Now AirAsia has changed position with Astro, with the former under a gloomy cloud. But that's how a trader makes money i.e. by buying at a lower level and then unloading when the crowd rushes in.

Darn, and I had already lari at 0.585... Never mind - the person who had bought at that price and helped to support the counter also deserves to make a profit.

You guys who had bought this one, any other CW or the mother - have to congratulate you all. Please know that I'm very very jealous HAHA! This is what I love about warrants; always hope that the ones that I buy will perform like what UEMLand's CWs have done. Percentage-wise, can't beat warrants, if you've come in at the right time.

@Fasterom, you are right. It's the timing of one's entry and exit that count the most. For traders, it doesn't really matter what counter it is, what its par value, PE, dividend yield and net assets are - buy at any price and then sell it higher. Getting it right consistently is the main difficulty.

There goes another bus, and without me on it - UEMLand! Had thought yesterday was already `too high'. But would actually have made money even at that closing price! This is yet another one of those that got away. And I know many people are also regretting - those spooked by so-called `analysts' and their monotone `political risk' warning about UEMLand etc. I don't think I'll buy. That's because I don't chase and would prefer to just wait for the next bus, whatever that might be:-)

pathew, talk2pkc and those who had bought -- Congratulations that your risk-taking decision is paying off. It's a good feeling to see a trade that's working. Regardless of how it will fare after this, the lower 2.70s was a fair price to pay. Have to consider the almost 30-sen discount. I was too cautious - was worried about forced selling plus the poor performances in Europe and the US might affect KLSE. Another case of fortune favouring the brave. Yeah, not too late to jump in but I don't think I will just yet. Maybe wait for the investments banks to come up with "the poor man's version" of Astro - call warrants:-)

Good luck to everyone holding Astro, especially those who got it before its listing.

Good start for Astro. Trying to find its equilibrium and level and it's all about momentum right now. If it goes higher, more will buy; lower and more will sell. But there are obstacles at certain prices, both ways. Up - there will be profit-taking or/and people cutting loss. Down - bargain hunters come in. That's why those hoping it will get below 2.50 will be disappointed:-) Or at least have to wait some more.

ongtkong, T+4 from OSK? That's great! Maybe I should have opened an account with it instead. Actually I had intended to - had even downloaded its "88" software even before that. But on that particular day when I went to its branch at Sunway Damansara/The Strand area, couldn't find parking. So I went to Affin at The Curve instead.

@Taugeh, okay thanks about DRBHicom. Will definitely watch it closely. Actually, this one is already in my KiV list but I've never bought it before. But now you've given me a good reason to seriously consider it:-)

Now there's another factor to consider although this one might affect most counters and not just Astro. The markets in Europe suffered a sharp fall with some more than a 2% drop. The US is down too with the Dow Jones at -232 or 1.7% at their noon. Will have to wait and see how our own market reacts to these.

@Taugeh, I still remember what you had said about UEM Land some weeks ago when it suffered a sharp drop. I knew you were right and I should have acted. At the very least, bought some of its call warrants. But I didn't, which is unfortunate for me. In mitigation, I think it's because I already had other positions then - AirAsia, FGV, JCY... would not have been prudent to take on more trades (fortunately, all went along quite well). But still, I keep thinking about that (UEM Land) and how it had rebounded.

@ongtkong, the cornerstone investors who sold - if I'm not mistaken, they had bought at about the same price of 3.00. Why are they selling at a loss? I had read that some are foreign hedge funds.

From what I know of them (and that's only through reading about them, not knowing their operations firsthand), they aren't in the same category as institutional investors like our EPF, or CALPERS the California public employees retirement fund (a financial mammoth, but have done poorly in the past few years) etc. These hedge funds are huge risk takers with an almost gambler mentality and approach who are into something to either win big or lose big.

With Astro, they feel that it's not going to make quick returns soon. Rather than wait like the typical institution, they are the number one proponents of the "cut loss early" rule. Lost money, BUT for them, their capital is now freed from Astro and could be used for something else. If their next investment is a good one, then the losses from Astro can be recovered. If it's a very good one, they will also be in the plus.

This isn't good for Astro holders - it HAS to findish strongly today to set up a firmer foundation tomorrow morning. Have to remember that the fall today, yesterday and last Friday's volume are/were VOLUNTARY. These people had sold to cut losses. But tomorrow another variable will come into play i.e. forced selling of lots bought on Friday. The price might come under strong downward pressure.

Your guesses here are as good as mine but I feel it won't go below 2.50...maybe not even 2.55. Although it's not as valuable as those telcos - Axiata, Digi, Maxis, TM - Astro is still in a quite comfortable position being able to collect regular subscription payments. Its huge debts will also be pared down from proceeds derived from the re-listing.

As for competition, I'd say there's nothing serious that can threaten it in the near term. The only possibility is the emergence of companies like Unifi and others that can deliver through fibre. Should they be able to come up with more attractive content and packages, some subscribers might leave Astro. Sports and movies especially. But their content at present isn't near good enough yet so Astro won't be having sleepless nights worrying.

It's doing poorly at the moment but I think there are many serious, long-term investors out there who are waiting for the right time to buy or to add. I believe Astro will pay dividends so this will be an attraction. There's also the potential for capital appreciation although this doesn't look likely now. It's a good-enough company whose IPO wasn't priced attractively enough so as to create a pop and excitement. 3.00 might be okay if this is a bull market. But it's not despite the KLSE index records.

But I feel Astro should have the price volatility range to attract traders. Every counter needs traders and contra players to be in the limelight. 2.55-3.30 -- if this is its range, Astro will be attractive. For now, have to let the dust settle first.

@richchong, just take care not to fully swallow whatever I may comment here without due diligence and comparing notes with others here. Sometimes my comments might sound very convincing. But that's only because I'm somewhat convinced of something. HOWEVER, they might not be correct, accurate or actually happen.

What we can do here is to give opinions, share experiences and try to benefit from the gained knowledge and insights to do better in the stockmarket. It's always a risk and we have heard of many horror stories of people losing a lot of money. But I know for a fact that it's definitely more than possible to also make significant profits through the KLSE.

The beauty of it is that it's so extremely SIMPLE: "Sell higher than the price you bought." The counters don't really matter - heck, even a PN17 company can make you significant money (TH Heavy when it was at 0.39 comes to mind). So, how do we sell higher? Timing, of course. How do we time it right? Ah, this one I don't really know - "simple" doesn't automatically mean "easy":-)

Big roadblock at 9.80. But the prices immediately above that should tumble like bowling pins if the lots remain the same. To institutional buyers: Please buy la. Tabung Haji: ni dah dekat nak raya haji, tolong la sikit... push Sime-CR to 0.07and I can go for haji next year:-)

kcchongnz, now you've gotten me excited, with $$ signs in my eyes:-P The mother share may be rather quiet at the moment but it just needs some impetus to be in the limelight again. Positive, hopefully.

It doesn't take too much for a counter like this to add 0.10 in a single trading session. It's also a "must have" counter for many institutions - if these fellows keep adding, and Sime reaches the average TP of 11.06 before the expiry date, it will be a very happy year for me.

Going up quietly. Started poorly this morning but later recovered and added a few sen. This is a good sign. If momentum builds up, IHH should reach it's long-due level of above 3.40 before long.

@nkaru - Advice about what specifically? If you are looking for tips about the various counters, you will get A LOT. And for free too. But they might not actually work out as the writers had enthusiastically promoted:-) For now, I'd suggest that you just read the posts and comments, follow the popular counters and get a feel of things. Good luck!

@Melvin G, cynical comment but there's a lot of truth. It's not just with Astro but also Maxis. Why did they privatise them previously? Because it was to the major shareholders' advantage.

In companies like these, the interests of minority shareholders aren't seriously considered. Our votes, even when combined, would never be near enough. That's the cold, hard fact. Like it or not, we are in it just for the ride with absolutely no control over the direction. I had read a post from a few years ago somewhere (can't remember - was it Malaysia Finance at Blogspot?) - the major shareholders had gotten Astro and Maxis on the cheap side. Now they have gotten these counters back on KLSE... at a big profit, of course.

Just an armchair guess and idle strategy. But you never know with a high-volume counter like this. It takes just a bit of momentum to turn things the other way. At the moment we are seeing a big struggle of both the buying and selling forces where *it seems* as if there is very strong support at this level. I'm tempted to jump in. After all, this is an almost 30 sen discount over the IPO. But, as seen yesterday when it "appeared" to have stabilised at 2.90, the possibility of a slide is always there. Looks can be deceiving.

Listed last Friday and with very big volume traded. That means the contra players from that day will have to pay up tomorrow. If they don't and haven't already sold, there would be forced selling of course. For traders, maybe it's more prudent to wait until the dust settles first as @Chyleglat Thomas suggests...?

I sympathise with these new Astro shareholders and don't blame them for either subscribing or in not selling. The 3.00 IPO is a bit rich but not excessively so. Conventional wisdom was that many would hold, and institutions plus genuine investors would buy on listing day. After all, this is Astro - never mind the high PE.

Can't blame them for not selling at 3.10 because a 10 sen gain percentage-wise is not worth the trouble to apply, go through balloting and wait for listing day. Never mind if it went back to 3.00, and now even less than that - it's easy to say "Cut loss" in retrospect but this is something which no one is really sure about.

@talk2pkc is right in that it wouldn't really be a surprise either way - 3.20 or down further to 2.50. We have seen this before. Who's to say it won't go back up and above 3.10 in the coming days? Remember how it was with SKPetro? This one went down to 1.93 or so... and then shot up. Good luck to those holding Astro.

ledzepp, Thanks for the link. 0.035 was a great price. I went in a bit early at 0.04, then saw big lots being given at the lower price. By the market maker...?

passerby, sure is boring so far. But I'm attracted by the premium and the relatively reasonable time to expiry. The mother just needs to add bit by bit, defend the gains and this one will be in the money next March. Fantasizing for it to be like some of those CWs that keep going up and up - will be delirious should it get to 0.10:-)

Exe Price: 9.50; Ratio 8-1; Expiry Date 29/3/13. So, at 0.04, the strike price is 9.82 (0.04 x 8). Is my calculation correct?

Taugeh, actually I was thinking about Amedia just 10 minutes ago and seriously considering it!:-) After such a sharp fall and at its current price, the downside risk looks rather minimal. It is now probably held by stronger holders and not contra players, which means they won't be selling at just about any price.

The question is, of course, will it go up again? Those hoping for an immediate rebound have been left disappointed. But what about "after this"...? That bonus and warrants proposals are still on, right? I'd say that's an attraction - something which Cybert doesn't have. But one thing that's holding me back is due to a major shareholder (he's also a director if I'm not mistaken) selling big last week at 0.34. Now why would he do that and at that price? Does he know something which we don't?

@shirley1, those thinkers like Karl Marx did have a valid point. The most crucial thing that separates the rich and the poor (and those in between) is capital. Two persons might be of equal intelligence but the one with capital will always do very well as compared to one without or lacks. The irony is that those with capital have much easier access to more capital in the form of loans than those who really need it. Fair or not, that's how life is unfortunately.

@Taugeh, when it comes to money, it's never enough even when one already has billions. Not saying that it's a bad thing to want accumulate more as AK is doing - heck, that's what we want to do too. I'm sure he has various projects lined up. He seems to be on a roll and it's only natural that he wants to keep it going.

But this Astro listing leaves a bad taste in the mouth. It looks like he and the underwriting bank have taken advantage of a gullible investment public. Plus institutions too (yeah, some are no smarter than us. after all, it's *people* handling the money, just like us).

Yes, investing is a risk and yes, they didn't put a gun to anyone's head and forced them to buy. But they didn't have to - they knew the name "Astro" is enough to attract people. Even someone who isn't too familiar with the stockmarket, if asked, might dare venture an opinion about it; something like "Astro at RM3.00 per share - yes, a good investment. Because it makes a lot of money from subscribers..." That's what people generally think. It's true. But there are also other things to consider.

Steve Jub, it often happens with other counters too. With me it was with JCY-CF a few weeks ago - 100 units, and I lost RM25 due to brokerage costs:-( But that also meant I was at the top of the Sell Q. Fortunately, I had entered a "Good until" date... it was cleared three days later:-) But I don't understand how the buyer would benefit - he has to pay brokerage costs too no?

Dutch Lady, Nestle etc. - their high PE is justified due to the juicy dividends that they consistently pay and their rich cash position. Astro is more of "debt rich". But this will improve. Thanks to new subscribers, it made more than RM4 billion (as reported in FreeMalaysiaToday), of which most will be used to repay a bulk of that. It's true that the rich gets richer... because the poor or definitely not rich help them by taking off those debts.

Congratulations, Ananda Krishnan! You took it and Maxis private at a cheap price... then loaded them back to the public at the top of the range. That's how BILLIONS are made - at the expense of others. Smart!

FINALLY broke past 3.20! Maybe some investors are switching from the disappointing Astro back to IHH? But whatever, it's time for IHH to get to a higher level... 3.40 please.

@ruslimz, true. But the problem is that we don't know what's going to happen in the future - immediate, near, middle or far. Kadang-kadang tu dia memang rebound...yang pergi jual untuk cut loss sebelum tu jadi menyesal. Kadang-kadang terus jatuh, yang tak cut loss awal-awal yang menyesal. No sure way to handle this - the individual will just have to make his own decision and stick to it.

Malaysia was on a roll after the big IPOs/merger of SKPetro, FGV and IHH. Proud that we, a small country relatively, could manage these. But Astro has thrown a spanner in the works. Not that it's a bad company - it's the people behind the IPO who have created this. Ananda Krishnan has a track record with his on-off-on listings with his companies - to his tremendous advantage and profit, of course - treating BSKL like a hotel. Now foreign investors will think twice about subscribing to Malaysian IPOS again.

The major shareholders and investment banks were too greedy. Didn't learn the lessons from Facebook by pricing it too high and not leaving anything on the table for new investors to come in. 2.70 would have been a better IPO price. Nowadays people are wiser and won't simply jump in to buy just because something is well-known.

So tough to get past 3.20. But it's good for the real investors. Even when other quality counters had dropped during the past few weeks, it had remained at this price. But it's a useless counter for traders:-)

Astro re-listing kacau everything. Have to let this one pass first. I think it will be better in the afternoon after people turn their attention away from Astro.

Ironic - an investor would have done much better with the `no glamour' TH Heavy than subscribing to the `much coveted' Astro IPO.