pirate99, now that TH Heavy has rebounded, I'm still waiting for one laggard to do the same by getting back to where it should be - MK Land. This one is really annoying me. Bought at 0.36 a month ago and have been waiting for it to go past 0.40 ever since. Each time it gets to 0.38, the upswing will fizzle out. Again and again. But I believe one day real soon, it will become like TH Heavy.

When it goes towards 0.60, I'm going to run away first. This will be a psychological barrier and will require a few attempts to get past. Usually, it creates a chain effect - when people take profits, contra players get jittery and would also sell to either lock in profits or cut loss, depending on what level they got in. You'll see this happening when it approaches 0.585 - there will be hesitancy.

Great counter! It rebounded from 0.47 10 days ago:-) That was the buying opportunity.

When AirAsia was at 2.85, many people would follow others and didn't want to buy. Now it's at 3.12 and they are considering to go in. It might go up further, it might not. Who knows? But that's the lesson with the stockmarket - if you have done your homework, are reasonably convinced a counter has the quality AND it's selling at its lower range, just buy and wait it out.

Something worth pondering whether you are into fundamentals, technical analysis or speculation based mostly on volume etc.:

"Investors need to fully understand the challenges that face them: Capital markets are about making the best probabilistic decisions using imperfect information about an unknowable future."

@Fat Cat, with speculative counters like JCY, "sentiment" is more important than whatever analysis. So why is there a sudden positive interest in it? I don't know...the same way that I don't when it dropped over the past few sessions. Going against the crowd tends to pay with JCY etc. But you will have to keep watch and be fast in getting out - it can change just like that.

0.005 more from -CF please. That's only reasonable to cover for the risk that I had taken.

Wish the investment banks would come up with call warrants for Benalec. It's starting to gain a following and there should be interest in its CWs among speculators. I feel Benalec has some way to go... at least 1.50.

Based on the downturn this morning, had thought that I could easily get the CF at 0.02, especially since this order is already a few days old. Wonder why the sellers are holding on so tightly despite the high premium?

@lmf_hau, yes, there are the cantik-cantik Miss Universe. Like Axiata, Maxis, Digi. But their dowry at more than 5.00 at least... Ouch! And there's no guarantee these quality stock beauties will bring in profits. So, in this regard, they are somewhat `the same' as Amedia in a twisted way:-) Anyway, I went in for Sime-CR at 0.04 today, so that means there is now less capital in my "High Risk" speculation. Amedia will be on hold for now, unless if "something" happens.

Darn tough -CF sellers despite the fall. I still can't get it at 0.02. -CM closed at 0.015, with a longer expiry (April `13). The exercise price of 1.60 looks sky-high though. But then, with warrants, it's momentum that counts the most. During an upswing, speculators don't look and think about the ex price and would just buy. That's the time to get out.

That should be "0.375" not 0.035 of course. Anyway, I believe it now has a very strong foundation at 0.36 - this support has been well-defended. I've now had it for 5 weeks or so. Had come in a bit early at 0.36 and it went to 0.33. Congrats to those people who got it at that juicy price. With MK land, my target is reasonable - I'm willing to hold it for at least a year but the profit must be 30% (11 sen, so must go to 0.47). I think it's achievable.

Now it has raised hopes... yet again. MK Land was sleeping in the morning plus yesterday. Suddenly woke up in the afternoon with an encouraging performance. The momentum was checked somewhat by heavy selling at 0.37 and should have closed at 0.035. Just need to clear those lots and people lined up at 0.38/39. If it does, then we should be looking at 0.40-above next week.

The swing today from highest to lowest - 0.085 sen. This is quite a lot for something at this price. What to read from its performance today? It did rebound in the morning but then faltered and slipped to below yesterday's close. That won't be good on the technical chart's reading.

At 0.38 it's at the `normal' price level before the rumours of its bonus issue started. This would be a very reasonable price to buy for the investor who can pick up and wait. After the steep falls, I don't think it will continue to slip like Cybert did - the latter didn't have any goodies planned while Amedia has the bonus and free warrants, plus main market listing plan. One thing that's preventing me from coming in is Alex Lu's post. But the urge to buy is strong...

Yeah, I remember what you had said about it last month. Unfortunate that I didn't buy then - already had other CW positions and didn't want to over-commit. The CR went up after that and I missed out. But that's alright because my other trades were okay too. Can't be too bold with the stockmarket.

Now that it's gone back to this price, with a very attractive premium plus reasonable time period, I feel it's definitely worth a risk. The only threat is that looming matter in court about the E&O buy. For Sime and CR to go up, an impetus is needed to create renewed interest. I'm banking on the rebound in CPO prices. A modest increase would result in analysts reviewing the plantations sector and fund managers coming back in.

I just did, especially after seeing CPO prices going up significantly today. Still out of the money at ex price of 9.50 (Ratio 8:1) but the date of end-March '13 gives more than a fighting chance. I'd say a 3-sen profit is not overly ambitious although you'd have to pick up and wait.

CPO is now RM2,501, up RM44 or 1.79%. This is interesting...
http://www.palmoilhq.com/

No need to thank. Vested and selfish interest here - I need your involvement to help push the price of my counters HAHA!

It definitely *is* more than possible. But I'd say not advisable. The better way might be to have a fulltime job to ensure the basic necessities are guaranteed. Only then will there be less pressure; and one tends to make better trading decisions when the mind is clear. Once the trading brings regular income, and when you have enough experience and the `right' temperament, only then should the fulltime trading be considered. Just my opinion.

CPO at RM2,490 at the moment - up RM33 or 1.34%. If this continues, sentiment towards the plantation counters should pick up a bit. Looking at the usual suspects - Sime, SOP, FGV, the more speculative RSawit etc. for signs of positive movement to jump in for a (hopefully) short ride.

Trying to get the -CF at 0.02. There's the possibility of it (and the mother) going lower, of course, but at this price, there's a fighting chance.

@talk2pkc, Good luck with your trade! Was/Am suddenly saddled with work since earlier in the morning and had missed the first 30 minutes of trading. Don't know how I'm going to proceed - this one needs to be followed full-time.

@zennix85, yes, that sound like a savvy strategy to play it. Unfortunately, there's also the possibility of the `fake rebounds' where it might look as if a counter had finally reached its bottom. But after closing higher, it then goes south again, trapping people at a higher buying price. This is the worry.

It happened to me with OSK - it fell from 1.70-something to around 1.50 after two days. That was when I came in at 1.53, believing it is rebounding from the bottom. It did... to 1.55 before slipping again to 1.35. But I managed to extricate myself and break even after two months when it was briefly at 1.55 again (now gone back to 1.41). Didn't lose money but don't like having the capital trapped like that.

@pathew, thanks for the link. And to @nicermannson for the caution. We all need to consider these before making any decisions.

I wasn't aware Alex Lu had come up with a post about this. He might be right, he might be wrong. But whatever, it's very good and timely that we now have a "Don't buy" opinion on top of the "Maybe it's worth a risk" comments, including from me. Now Alex Lu is someone whom I follow and I will definitely take into serious consideration what he has said.

There's potential for profits here BUT only if there's a rebound - which *I feel* will happen. Not scientific but this had been successful enough although not all the time:-) Looks like I'll have to sleep on it and see how it goes when the market resumes tomorrow. "Wait and see" - there's potential to either make money or lose it with Amedia.

Now I'm getting scared! Note that even if the arguments above SOUND convincing, the fact is that I have no idea how things will really work out for Amedia either tomorrow or the immediate future. This is just guessing and speculating. The only thing that I can do is write what *I think* (note the emphasis). Hopefully someone will also come up with arguments on why not to buy so that we can have a more balanced view and opinion here. There's always two sides to the coin, and if I put my mind to it, I can probably also come up with why "not to".

@nicermannson - I'm hoping you or someone can give us some idea. This is what the sharemarket is all about: the counter (any counter) is secondary; plus the price too. It's the TIMING in when to come in and get out that count the most. So how to get it right? If only we know.

HAHA! If it doesn't work right, don't blame me ye. These are just "thoughts" and I have been wrong so many times before. Normally I would have just ignored counters like it, Cybert, Ingens, Nicorp and the likes. But that bonus and free warrants; plus its sharp fall have made it attractive.

Shouldn't have gone up that high at 1.12 - might be justified somewhat if the ex-date for the bonus is announced. But not at this stage nor at those previous prices. Anyway, another thing about crowd psychology and (very) fickle sentiments - should it rebound a bit early tomorrow, the momentum will likely move the other way due to these:

1) people who have not bought will jump in to catch the rebound.
2) people who already have it will look to average down by buying some more at a lower price.
3) the technical charts will be positive and encourage more people to buy.
4) the "buy when a counter is going up" crowd will also join in.

Tomorrow will be interesting. I'll have to make a decision tonight on what to do.

@talk2pkc, so I'm not alone with this thought then? You've now made me bolder, and that could be dangerous to myself:-P "Standy" tomorrow is the best strategy because you can't discount a very possible rebound given the steep fall over the past two trading sessions. But will the rebound (if it does come tomorrow) be worth the risk?

Let's consider the risks - how much lower could it possibly go? No one knows, of course, so we will have to do some guesswork. It's previous range before it went up and up was 30-something. So, would 0.35 be reasonable and this will be the maximum bottom? I think so.

Business-wise, Amedia ia okay enough and profits. It's last two quarters saw EPS of around 1.92 sen. It's reasonable to expect this year's EPS at around 7.5 sen. Wouldn't the fair value be around 0.60-0.70 then?

The problem is that speculators had jumped the gun - too soon and too fast - over its plan to move from ACE to the main market, plus the bonus issue, and had pushed the price too high. But I would say a rise from its previous level is still justified since these *are* positive developments. So, in this respect, it's wrong to equate Amedia with Cybert - with the latter, there was no reason to get excited and push up the price from 0.30-something to 2.00 in the first place.

With the stockmarket, and with a counter like this, crowd psychology and sentiments are more important than fundamentals. Not that Amedia lacks the latter although the numbers aren't terribly exciting... just okay enough.

If I do take the risk with Amedia tomorrow, will have to cancel the order for JCY-CF. Can't hold more than a couple of high-risk counters at the same time (already have AirAsia-CW). And if I buy, there won't be any cut loss - will pick up because the bonus issue etc. are worth waiting for. Just sharing my thoughts here and am not encouraging anyone to buy.

@captros, Lucky break for me today - heavy rain at 2PM after lunch made me drowsy. Took a long nap and was thereby spared from the temptation of buying `cheap' at 0.49. Was surprised to see it resuming the slide to 0.42. Thankful for the rain:-) But my hands are still itchy and can't get over this "Rebound!" thing that's provoking me to do something. Yeah, always looking for trouble by playing with fire and falling knives.

Let's revisit the TA Securities link previously provided by @Joe Liam http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/10931.jsp It was written when Amedia was at 0.87. It was a "Sell" and they got it right. The interesting (and tempting) point is this: Amedia, at 0.42, is now below TA's TP of 0.65 - 23 sens below. So, does that mean it is now grossly oversold and due for a technical rebound?

@Shanu, `convincing'... but it might not actually happen Haha! That's the best that we can do - gather information, do some analysing, make the decision and if it's "Buy", wait after doing so. That's what I'm doing and will continue to do unless if some crucial variable were to change. If that were to happen, will have to re-analyse and re-evaluate. But so far all the variables still remain the same so I'll continue to wait although I sometimes do get exasperated.

"Patience" - would be great if a counter that we buy immediately goes up after that. It does happen occasionally but often we have to wait.

The slide appears to have been checked and it has rebounded above today's low. But the question is, will it hold? Wouldn't take much for speculators to get jittery, cut loss and resulting in the slide resuming. To those banking on a rebound (including me) - will it?? Or, would it just languish around this price level? Tak berani la...

@yazid, it's obvious that some other institutions are taking over from them. They had probably planned it this way. If not, MAS' shares would plummet. This is a GLC and I'm sure the government wouldn't be too happy should that happen. Ironic that it has done better for the trader than the profitable AirAsia over the past couple of days, no? That's the stockmarket for you - sometimes, the business side of things take a back seat.

It was the CJ bought and sold, not CF. Could have gotten more had I the guts to wait. Sigh... But have to stick to my basic strategy and gameplan - if there's a profit within the contra period and the same day, take it. I've had profits slip away when I waited for more; sometimes going to even less than the buying price and I would regret and regret not cashing out when I had the chance.

Where's @Namoyaki? Would love to hear what he thinks about Amedia, MAS etc. By the way, when he says "Race!" about some counter, that's the cue to start doing something. He might not be right all the time (no one is) but often you'd have a fighting chance.

@ongtkong, I certainly can't answer that - too dangerous!:-) You will have to evaluate it and decide whether you'd dare to risk your capital. But actually I had bought it at that same price in early June. Was lucky in that it immediately went up the next day and I sold off at 1.17. Will it repeat? I don't know. But the sudden interest and volume do look encouraging and there's the tendency this might continue tomorrow. By the way, I had already gotten out - got my one sen from the CF and that's fine enough with me for today's trade.

Unisem - I don't really follow this counter but I think I remember having read some analysis about it, which was favourable if I'm not mistaken. Try searching at the Unisem post, maybe there's a link to it.

@ongtkong, thank @Joe Liam because it was he who had provided that link.

@King Kong73, are you planning to buy? I've become discouraged after reading the TA report. But that doesn't mean I'm avoiding it "for sure". That's because I still have some capital from my "High Risk" budget and this counter does look interesting from a certain perspective. Not that I'm encouraging anyone to buy because Amedia can get you badly burned. This could be the textbook falling knife and common wisdom says "Avoid".

On the other hand, when something falls this sharply, there's the possibility of a rebound. But would it be enough to justify the 3:1 reward-risk factor? Let's see how it goes tomorrow morning.

Guess what? While most of us were busy watching AirAsia, its down-in-the-dumps rival - the `useless' MAS and its warrants - suddenly went up after lunch:-) Percentage-wise, they would have been better for the trader.

This is yet another lesson and reminder of how the stockmarket market works. Day-to-day business of a company; of costs, strategies, staff deployment, competition etc. etc. are just secondary. It's sentiment and perception that count most. And if you can manage to time your entrance and exit, that would be perfect.

If making profits from the market is one's sole goal, don't be too influenced by things like "trimming costs" etc. and be led to a state of "analysis-paralysis" - trying to find the 100% perfect counter to buy. In the end, you will always miss out on potential profits coming from far-from-perfect counters. Like MAS today. After you've done your homework with some reasonable research and thinking, it's time to make a decision. If not, you'll end up forever analysing... and not making anything.

Keith, probably, if based on TA's report. From their calculations, they say the ex-price should be 0.44 while the TP is even lower at 0.23. True that it made profits but the problem is that the price had been goreng and inflated. 0.58 closing price means it looks like there's still some way to go.

Alamak, TA securities says it's a Sell. Tak berani nak beli...

"No change to our TP of RM0.653 (before bonus issue and warrants issue) based on FY13 EPS of 13.1 sen pegged to a PEof 5x. However, on a fully diluted basis, the adjusted target price isRM0.23, which implies capital downside of 52.3% from the ex-price of RM0.44. Maintain Sell."

@mw_shing, "rock bottom" - if only we really know. Such a sharp fall. This has gotten traders like me very interested. The worry is, of course, "cheap" becomes "cheaper" as had happened to so many counters... Cybert, Ingens etc. Tapi tangan ni RASA GATAL nak try speculate Heheh! Have to do some research first. There are only two probabilities - one either gets significant profits from a rebound OR the other way round.

Maybank today says "Buy", with TP of 1.20. Going to add its warrants to my "KiV" folder and see whether there's a chance to make one or two sen with.

"3Q12 will be black. We think that MAS will breakeven in 3Q12 on a 9% QoQ drop in unit fuel costs, cost savings from capacity cuts, plus higher load factors and yields as 3Q is traditionally a peak period. This will lift sentiment on the stock as the market takes comfort in the successful implementation of its business turnaround efforts. Maintain BUY, with an unchanged target price of MYR1.20/share based on 2013 adjusted EV/EBITDAR of 6.4x – in line with regional peers."

More here http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/10945.jsp

Actually I'm happy enough that it is managing to defend the 3.00 support and remain at this level considering the general market. It's building up a stronger foundation first. If Europe, Us and China don't kacau, I believe it will break 3.10 *soon* <---(depends on how one interprets this).

More volume with its -CK than the mother Haha! Eyeing the CF but I'm not going in just yet. Have to see a more convincing volume. Traders don't look too desperate to sell, so there's potential for an upswing no matter how mild. Let's see how it goes towards mid-day.

I don't think this is a downtrend but just a normal, healthy correction. "normal" and "healthy" remain valid only if the price doesn't go down too much, of course. Perisai has gone up quite significantly over the past few trading sessions... yesterday especially when it finally breached 1.00, which had been a very strong psychological resistance for months.

For investors, the more crucial matter at the moment is not in seeing it go further up. Rather, it must defend that 1.00 level - from being a resistance previously, Perisai must now make it a strong support. Only after a solid base is formed at around this level will it move further up.

Up or down?? This counter - and most others too - seem to be frozen today:-) Those matters about Europe, China and East Asia's slower growth, Huawei's troubles with the US which might start a trade war aren't helping sentiments.

@kcchongnz Thanks for all of your analyses and opinions about call warrants especially; not just in this AirAsia thread but also elsewhere. They have been educational for us here, and when we are better informed, would be in a better position to make decisions.

Anyway, right now I'm a bit uneasy about the market. Yeah, the BSKL index has been breaking records but this is what some analysts say is just a `pseudo bull'. Only certain counters are up where there is no breadth in the general market. But whenever these counters undergo a correction, the rest would follow too!...even when they didn't go up in the first place.

Then there's the situation in Europe. If it deteriorates, we will likely be affected too. Not to say we should stay away from the market - I'm still in, but doing so warily.

That half sen is my safety margin; very, very important to me. BUT if there's momentum, I guess I'll have to give in to the seller...grudgingly:-P

@kcchongnz, now that you have alerted people to the merits of CW, it will be more difficult for me to get it at 0.04:-P It might look heavy footed now but when punters realise its at a discount relatively, the attention will turn to it over CU. I feel CW is the best bet, especially due to the longer expiry date. I'll be comfortable holding it - the year-end window-dressing period should see the mother going up and carrying the CW with it.

Come down just a bit more, please. I've been trying to buy and come back in and now there's an opportunity:-)

I've been fortunate with JCY so far I guess, with both the mother and -CF. This is what I see of JCF: it is a widely-followed and speculative counter but one that is also backed by good fundamentals. It is different from other counters like Ingens, Cybert etc. whose business performances don't justify the attention they've gotten.

From what I see, there seems to be only one negative factor - albeit something that's admittedly critical - i.e. forecasts and projections that its next reported quarter will come up with deteriorating results due to perceived lesser demand for HDD parts. But many automatically "deteriorating" or "poorer" results with "a loss", which is not really correct. For the first two quarters so far, JCY had reported PROFITS. Year-on-Year, it is still way in the black. If things are really going to be THAT bleak for JCY, I'd say the management would have chosen to keep a lid on expenditure, including in not giving out dividends. But they did in the last quarter, despite the `poorer' results.

I'm not recommending for people to buy - I'd never do that with ANY counter. But I still feel there's money to be made with JCY although it will be risky. At the same time, it's risky with ANY counter, including the so-called "quality stocks" because there's no guarantee of anything (Sime Darby, KLK, IJM etc. come to mind).

My strategy with JCY is "hit and run"; go against the crowd. That's what I've been doing with the -CF the past few weeks. But you will have to cash out FAST - one sen profit is A LOT and that's the time to exit. If it goes down, then buy again. I'm trying to get it at 0.02 - although the exercise price of 1.22 looks a bit too high, the four months to expiry date gives the punter a fighting chance. Yes, its premium is also high but then this is JCY - with CWs, interest and momentum are more important. And JCY has both.

Yes, both the US and Europe are doing quite well. There might be a spillover effect next Monday. If so, I'll jump in immediately:-)