Haha! It did strike 3.00!
Wolverine, what was that we were betting??... Darn, should have put something into it!:-)

No worries. All of this is just in good fun. And besides, no one should make trades based on what others prophesies.

@ueclid, but in real trading (i.e. involves real money), I don't do this:-) Too dangerous to accurately and consistently predict prices in the short-term. And one day is *very* short-term to me. One might get it right but it might result in him being set up for a big fall. Especially when he thinks he's `very smart' and has `a foolproof system'. With trading, I need a reasonable leeway and margin in terms of time.

@wolverine.. Oh, okay, I'm going the other way - it will strike 3.00. At least one of us is going to be right Haha!

And many daring people still buy because there's still the possibility of it spiking a bit sen-wise which will bring in big gains in percentage. It's like those people who buy dead duck warrants at 0.005 - 0.01 will be a 100% gain. With RM1k capital for Keywest, it might be a heavy loss percentage-wise. But ringgit-wise, not so. Not that I'm going to buy:-)

It will strike 3.00 at 09:46:26 today:-)
Regardless of whether it does, I feel having a longer term strategy is better than trying to guess right about its price within such a short period of a few days. For all you know, it might go below 2.90 today, which is not something impossible as we have seen. Not just with AA but also the other counters. Having a timeframe of a few months for things to work out in our favour - I believe this will greatly increase the possibility of success.

As with everyone else, I don't know. BUT if the momentum continues, "tomorrow" is definitely not impossible. After all, what is 5 sen with a counter like this? Heavy institutional buying today, especially in the late afternoon - with these fellows, they tend to continue. Plus they also attract others' attention - institutions, investors and traders. In my opinion, as I had stated some time ago, regardless of Malindo, AirAsia should be between 3.00 - 3.30.

Don't know about "wise". It's just that I had learned some valuable lessons from my failed ventures the first time around in the 1990's. Would like to share the experiences so that others can benefit without having to undergo the same pains.

@ongtkong - I would say those would be among the things that would help. Yes, we all know of many people who are arrogant, selfish etc. but doing well, have a lot of money and are successful when it comes to financial dealings. And `good people' who are not. So, improving one's self won't automatically improve one's luck it would seem. But I believe God will bless and grant us good things in various ways; not just in guiding us to make good trades. This (improving one's self) is an ongoing, whole-life thing.

By the way, don't forget the `usaha' (effort) - can't focus on just the above. One must also be prepared, do the homework (research, analysis, discussion etc.) I believe the combination will make one more successful.

That reminds me - have to monitor its warrants closely. Going to jump in tomorrow if the conditions look good.

Maybe it was someone else who came up with the theory. But it was/is Soros who helped to make it better known. Most people would not listen to some obscure professor or philosopher - or even know he exists. But it's a different matter when someone with a `big name' says it. Especially when he has also proven to be very successful at the war front of markets.

Wow! What a nice surprise when I checked the screen for today's close:-) This strong close should lift the gloom and pessimism. Forget about Malindo, whatever technical readings (two people can give two different interpretations) etc. No need to go too deeply into Europe's financial crisis, oil prices - this is the "analysis paralysis" kind of people who often miss out on upswings (and profits).

George Soros' Reflexivity Theory is right - there are simply variables, the unknowns, that can't be quantified on technical charts. Like what other people/investors/institutions/politicians are going to do or react to the various things every day. If the price is reasonable, just buy it, stuff the technical charts up the analysts' ar*e and wait. Might be a while but a quality stock will inevitably find its right level again. "Sentiments and perceptions" - these are the deciders, not" what the charts say".

This is encouraging - it is seriously challenging the 3.20 resistance. If it can get past this, I believe it will go on its long overdue upswing.

The best-case that all of us dream of whenever we are in the market is to "buy at its lowest point, and then sell at its highest". But how exactly do we know these points? "By technical analysis.", some might say. Yes, it helps but it is by no means perfect and people who depend solely on this have been burnt too. Or miss out on possible profits because their charts (or interpretation of these) say "Don't buy". If not, then - to borrow AirAsia's line - "Everyone can make big profits."

The future - no one knows what will really happen until it does happen. So, I feel we can only do the next-best thing - do our homework, analyse objectively and then make a decision. And if it's "Buy", be committed and not get swayed into cutting loss or whatever just because the market doesn't immediately go your way... unless if some premise or variable had changed. Often, for *investors* or longer-term traders (not contra), it's much better to just check the price once in a while - maybe at noon and the close. Investments/Longer-term trading needs a reasonable timeframe, not on a minute-to-minute or hour basis.

I wouldn't be surprised if it gets past 3.00 again real soon and move back up. Forget about whatever charts, Malindo etc. - perception and sentiments count a lot more. Those who feel 2.90 is "expensive" will likely also be the same people who will then buy at 3.30 in the not-too-far future. I hold onto the basic principle of "If one is convinced a counter is of quality and with potential, AND it is some distance lower than its high, that's a good-enough price to buy. And wait".

It's what *inside* one's self that counts. To be more precise, of what we are... our character, our self, of what we think and do. This kind:-) In short, being a better person. Yeah, I know this is `not scientific' and many would question "What have these to do with the stock market?" But I believe inner guidance beats FA and TA combined. Some might call it "luck" but I believe it's more than that. I've seen and know of people who know nuts about TA and `just enough' of TA who are doing very well in the stock market... including my father (have survived the ups and downs since the 70's and is still around).

Yeah, if you want to make losses:-P
Trying to get the right mix of fundamental AND technical analyses. But I'm very much still a newbie with the latter and am relying only on the basic charts like RSI and moving average. Don't yet understand the more complex ones - it's dangerous to have a little knowledge and thinking that you already know stuff.

But it's that "hidden factors" thing that I would really like to have - the "help from above" which guides our intuition and the gut feeling. Cleansing one's self is one way to achieve this...must get on God's good side:-)

KC, you can say that again. And again. If one is in the market long enough, this keeps repeating - of quality counters going down and down. Most people freeze. But if you are convinced of its quality, this presents a good opportunity to come in. True, it might go down further. But at the very least, you know that you didn't buy near its high, and have a good chance of making a profit.

"Time" - this is of the essence. Perception and sentiments will change over it. In this situation, it's better to stay away from the trading screen because the second-by-second transactions might make you panicky and distort its real value.

@san4477 Very sorry to hear that. How you respond to this event is now more important that the event itself. That's because you can't go back in time to reverse it. Despairing over it will not bring any good at all. The best thing to do is to honestly face reality and also face the music.

There are surely important lessons from the whole thing that can be put to profitable use in the future. Analyse where you have gone wrong, what mistakes you had made and avoid doing the same in the future. Doing this is a lot better than living in despair.

Drat! There goes any chance of getting the CM. Congrats, @kltrader - 0.005 is already in your pocket:-)

@ledzep - am going to pick up. I went in a bit early and have gotten just a few sen now which is nowhere near the 3:1 reward to risk ratio yet. Good that it has rebounded - now momentum will decide whether it goes on or peters out. But I'm also a bit annoyed because there goes the CN warrant which I should have bought (but, of course, didn't) at 0.055/.06 yesterday. But the CM at 0.015 is still remotely possible if the rebound reverses.

At the same time, have to be cautious and not get in too deep in the market. Now Europe are at it again with various troubles. Better to keep some of the capital at the sidelines since "cheap" might become "cheaper" given the current sentiments.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443916104578019570589603566.html

passerby, it seems that I'm doing much better with these warrants than the mother...ever since you explained the fundamentals some weeks ago. Especially with JCY, FGV, AirAsia, IFCA since early this month. And a few the previous months. I do have a few stuck and am holding on - JCY, AA, IHH. But at the same price or just 0.005-.01 off. Yes, I've been taking more risks, more trades but I allocate only a fixed percentage of the capital to warrants:-) The rest are in safer (comparatively) ordinary counters.

Ah, so you are one of them then! I was checking the transaction timeline and saw that 0.015 was actually the Seller's price for quite quite a number of lots. I Q too late. Today some lots were given but I was way behind. But I've set the "Good until" order to Friday, which means I should be higher in the Q tomorrow.

Been trying to get the CM warrant for 0.015 since yesterday. The guys who were more decisive and went in earlier were successful. At this price and with another 6 months, there's more than a fighting chance for really decent profits. Unless if the market undergoes a prolonged slump. I'll keep trying tomorrow. But if the mother recovers, however mild, then the chances at this price are most likely zero. In this situation, the CN at 0.06 might be better - lower exercise price at 5.25 and much longer expiry date in Aug 2013.

I'm more comfortable with a gradual and steady rise of 0.005/.01 is one trading session. Like today. Or at least defend the last closing price. This way it will have a much stronger footing and won't be too subjected to volatility. Based on it being grossly undervalued, I feel it can go far - a 100% return on capital isn't impossible. But it will be over time.

By the way, it hasn't given dividends for a long time. This is understandable when it wasn't doing well. But it is on a much sounder financial footing now and making profits. Don't discount the possibility of a bonus issue in the future. After all, the major shareholders would want to reward themselves too.

There's also the political angle which these analysts haven't considered. Scomi is somewhat handicapped by its connection to Kamaludin and Khairy Jamaludin (real or otherwise). It had an advantage when Dollah Badawi was the Prime Minister. But now they are looked on with suspicion and resentment, plus maybe some jealousy too by those holding the power. Never mind if they are in the same party.

Ironically, IJM has more sway and influence with the government than the Umno people at Scomi! And you need to be in the good books to get oil & gas contracts. Among other things. I think this is where both can help each other, plus the fact that IJM has the financial clout to provide Scomi with much-needed liquidity.

LOL! If you ask three analysts, you can get FOUR opinions:-)

An analyst from RHB IB said yesterday this deal "is not well thought out", or something to this effect. How long did he spend to analyse the whole thing? Since it was only announced a day before that, he would only have known about it during this duration. It would seem that this RHB analyst, with his 24 hours (max) of research, knows better than IJM's management team, who had been working on it for MONTHS.

Time and again, the market has shown that investors would inevitably make profits when they look at and have the patience and staying power for the "longer term". This is valid for quality counters, and in my opinion IJM definitely is. But it's hard to look further ahead when one is glued to the trading screen and limiting his view to second-by-second price movements.

In times like this, if one has done his homework and is convinced of his choice, take the action, be committed to it and wait it out. We have seen this happening over and over again; of many who miss good opportunities to buy at reasonable prices... and some weeks later, will do so at a much higher level. But don't worry - I will gladly sell to them my lots at RM5.50:-) Yeah, it looks `impossible' now. But look further ahead, and also of past lessons. Where were Axiata, TM, Digi, Takaful etc. six months ago?

[Quote] For now, analysts are still waiting for more clarity to the deal as the company is expected to hold an analyst briefing today.

“To me, its an opportunistic deal for IJM as the entry cost of RM150mil is relatively cheap and this will give them an immediate foot print into the oil and gas industry,” said a local research house analyst."[]
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/9/26/business/12081347&sec=business

Trying to get the -CW at 0.015. The exercise price is rather high compared to the mother's present price (and condition). But there is still enough time until the expiry, and I believe the market will revalue IJM to its proper level within this time. But the warrant holders don't seem too desperate to sell, unlike yesterday.

Oh, oh - it's going down again. Now my heart is thumping:-P

Agree with @ismahdimohdnor and @Shanu. Great company but it's facing a huge psychological barrier in getting to 1.00, and then past it. Every time it threatens to do that, there seem to be hesitancy, people take profits or cut loss and the upswing inevitably fizzles out. It then slides to 0.89 or so and the process starts again. And again.

This has been going for months. But if it does go to 1.00 - and I believe it will sooner or later - it will likely not come down again.

Don't know about the mother but I'm keenly following the warrants. CF especially. Big lots sold at 0.025 today and also yesterday - someone or some people throwing 5,000 lots in one shot several times. Forced selling? But when this is over, then the supply-demand principle will also be in action at the other end too... provided JCY picks up a bit.

It's the general market sentiments which is rather pessimistic and gloomy. 2.30 looks to be a very strong support. SKPetro will go up again soon.

Haha! And 0.335 was there for the taking for DAYS:-) But never mind - it's okay to buy something at a higher price IF it's on an uptrend. A very encouraging day today.

I'm less ambitious - will be happy enough if it's near 0.39 this Friday. It's better to go up gradually and building a strong support base. This is one of my longer-term investments. I feel it will get to the investment banks' TP one day. But along the way, I will take the profits when they come because it won't be a straight line upwards.

IJM in yoyo mode:-) Doesn't matter how it ends today. I'm in, committed and will wait.

Too bad, KC. This is where online trading has the edge. Plus in not being `kedekut' all the time and occasionally giving in to the seller's price. Not looking for much - yesterday's closing price would be a good exit point.

In the BSKL filing yesterday, Bank Muamalat was still selling:
Disposed 19/09/2012
590,000
Disposed 20/09/2012
550,600

Don't know yet about yesterday and today. But if there's buying volume and the bank doesn't unload too many lots, the buyer interest and momentum can be sustained.

Good performance today. Keeping my fingers crossed that Mr Kasi's problems are over and his lots won't put a dampener on sentiments. Would be great if it close at 0.36.

It looks very, very attractive at this price. Regardless of how the price will fare today and in the next few days, this is a PROVEN good company. I'm going to take the risk.

Can't get the -CW at 0.04. This would a good price to wait it out. But if there's a rebound plus volume, 0.045 would still be reasonable considering it has some months left.

The really big winners are those who had bought the warrants at 0.01 when it looked like at a dead duck and held on. Now at 0.04, for a 300% return in a couple of months or so.

Some people use a calculated strategy of buying seemingly `useless' warrants that almost certainly won't reach the exercise price. They'd buy different counters at 0.005/0.01 in the hope that something will happen to one or two. Like with that E&O warrant which went from 0.005 to 0.13 some weeks ago. Losses will be made with most of these warrants but they need just one jackpot to not only cover these losses but also make significant profits.

For all you know, it might go back down to 0.78 after this:-P But that's it - no one really knows what will happen after this. We can discuss and argue using all the known factors. However, there are the unknowns and other variables that will come into play, of which we can't quantify to predict the movements. The best that we can do is to evaluate what we do know and then make a decision on whether to buy and at what price.

Anyway, regardless of how the price will be after this, 0.78 is definitely not a sucker's price. One has to take risks in an effort to make profits.

I'm keeping this. But I'll consider selling some at 0.45:-)

From a gloomy 0.78 earlier to 0.815 at the moment - *what* has changed for JCY business-wise during the last couple of hours? Nothing. Sentiments and perception are a lot more important. If momentum is created, I wouldn't be surprised if it shoots past 0.90. This is a trader's counter and not really "investor's" although its dividends are decent enough.

Good, good... Bank Muamalat & Mr Kasi: Please don't kacau daun ye. Thank you.

Even though the CPO price has been dropping, palm oil is something that will always be in demand. I don't think it will go down to that level of some years ago when some settlers had to take on part-time jobs to make ends meet. But even during those times many of the plantation companies still made profits.

The last few years were "exceptional". Can't expect this to go on and on. The mood is subdued but this gives genuine investors (as opposed to "traders") the chance to buy at a more reasonable price. Especially those that pay generous dividends.

Floods, hard disk demand, minimum wage etc. - all these are factors that will definitely decide on the company's business performance. Presumably, these will also affect the share price. But it's fascinating to note that one can use the above factors to argue BOTH ways :-)

With counters like this, I feel "current sentiments" will decide on which direction the price goes. Investors/traders/speculators are very fickle - don't be surprised should the present jittery sentiments are checked and everyone suddenly becomes optimistic. We have seen this happening so many times.

This is one of the trades where I went out too early, timid that I am. But that's okay because I'm thankful I had bought at the ground floor in the first place. It's also good to know that the person who had bought my lots had also most likely made a profit too. The cake is big enough for everyone to have a taste.