By the way, my comments here should not be taken to mean that I'm saying "Hold or buy JCY because it should rebound soon." Or "Sell now to cut loss because it looks like going down further." I don't have any opinion about its price at the moment because I'm surprised by it all. My focus right now is solely on OSK and its manner with the TP.

If any of you guys are holding JCY, it's best that you make your own decisions. It's very easy for others to say "Cut loss" or "Hold" or whatever. But only those in a similar situation will understand that undecided feeling inside with whatever decision that's made. All of us would have been in this situation - Sell to cut loss... and then the price rebounds. Or hold, only to see it sliding further. That's the dilemma.

I've looked at the price movement and transactions from the start of trading today, trying to visualise what I would have done. Actually I was only able to follow the market at 11am and so had missed the start.

In retrospect, anyone could sagely offer this `advice' of "You should have cut loss early on." How was the trader to know what was to follow??

Notice the huge deviation between this OSK analyst and the other IBs. If it does drop to 0.35, then one thing will be proven - that this guy is a true stockmarket genius who should also be crowned as "The King of Analysts". The least that I can do during his coronation is my "Run to The Curve and Jumping Jacks" as punishment and atonement in not recognising the glorious being that he is.

With these analysts, conveniently, they often do not provide any timeframe. It's like giving a TP of 4.50 for Bumi Armada, for instance (now 3.89). It goes to that... five years later in 2017. And that after ups and downs with a low of 2.50 somewhere along the way. If you put in enough years, any TP of whatever counter is bound to be correct eventually. That's why I had stated JCY *might* be 0.10. Or AirAsia 0.60, Nestle 2.50, TH Heavy 5.00, Mudajaya 8.00, Perisai 6.00... without things like bonus issues, splits, capital reductions, consolidation etc. "TIME"...

Back to OSK's TP - Is it saying that the price will be downhill all the way to 0.35? I'm not totally rejecting this figure "over time". But what if there's a significant rebound along the way?...that it gets to 0.80 or more in the next few months? Where does that leave investors who sell tomorrow at 0.70 "to cut loss", as OSK wants them to do, with its scary TP?

I don't gain or lose anything from JCY because I don't have it. However, I'm really displeased with how the analyst arrives at the TP figure. Hopefully someone can provide a link to this full report so that we can understand better.

KC Loh, JCY might even go to 0.10 for all you know. Not impossible, if the troubles in Europe and the US debt worsens and a worldwide depression follows. But the point here is that let whatever due course follow first. How did the OSK fellow arrive at the 0.35 figure? Why not see how it fares at its immediate supports of 0.67 and then 0.64 first?

If these support levels hold, I'm willing to increase my stake - not only will I run naked to The Curve, I will also do jumping jacks in front of IKEA. On OSK's part, if JCY doesn't get to 0.35, please convert its branches into cybercafes or sell budu and tempoyak there instead. It just doesn't have it to be involved in the stockmarket.

So that explains why the price around the Subang Bestari area is high! Some of the houses are very nice, especially the three-storey ones. But I feel the asking price in the secondary market is too much - many are just a bit cheaper than in Kota Damansara. Yes, it will be like KD eventually but that will take some years yet. These speculators seem to be jumping the gun, assuming that things will roll on sweetly forever as it has over the past few years or so.

Not too familiar with this particular area - I'm often at the other side near to Mah Sing's upcoming Star Avenue and Subang Bestari. But you are right about the value of properties at the Subang Permai area. For one thing, it's closer to KL. The more important factor is its proximity to Guthrie Corridor.

This is one thing that I've realised and accepted of life in the Klang Valley: tolls are a way of life and, instead of fuming about paying, it's much better to accept it as part of one's regular monthly expenditure like electricity etc. and make allocations for it. Should I have the means to buy my own house here, it must be somewhere that's near to a toll entrance/exit.

You guys who have lived here for years and years might not realise it, but for me the road system here is good. Yes, it would be great if using these expressways is free. But we have to accept the fact that it costs a lot of money to build them and the people who risk their capital have the right to make reasonable profits.

Anyway, that's the key factor for me - easy access to the nearest expressway. Plus security.

@mictkp, As I had commented earlier, I think it's because the contra players panicked and this set about a chain reaction. This is especially so with those who had bought on Monday and Tuesday when they see the price rising and the technical readings being positive.

Some of them might not have enough capital to pick up their purchases after the contra period. They might have been ready for a possible loss of a couple of sen. However, nobody anticipated the swiftness of things and the sharpness of the slide. Inevitably, many panicked and rushed to cut loss "before it gets worse". This is the danger of over-extending yourself - you have very few options.

I think there's nasi dagang by a few traders around the Section 6 apartments - stalls by the roadside. But this particular area is somewhat rather messy and a bit chaotic. My wife's favourite is a Kelantan-owned restaurant in Bandar Pinggiran Subang (also known as "Subang 2"): Mak Uda Selera Timur https://foursquare.com/v/mak-uda-selera-timur/4bea47cb62c0c92839b6e0d4 This place is packed with people during breakfast and lunch

One easy way is to look at the weekly PE ratio, Dividend yield and Net Tangible Asset of different counters, plus the one-year high and low. This info is in The Star on Saturdays. Try find the price range over a longer period - five years would be good. That's how I came across and decided on Scomi Group when it was at 0.215, among others.

Another method is through this forum itself. Often, you'd get alerted to some potential counter. See the comments and then decide whether the stated counters might be a good investment. This is one of the reasons why I come here regularly - a lot of information and good opinions.

That's my logic too. Banking on the oversold position to result in a rebound, no matter how mild. The main worry is this - if it breaks below it's support, it will likely go on a downtrend and the -CU will go lower, of course. Well, have to take the risk if one wants to try make a profit.

This is one of my regrets. It was in my list in April, plus Petra Energy, Wah Seong, Deleum etc. Good selections but I didn't buy, unfortunately. The biggest regret is Petra when it was at 1.15 or so.

Oh, you are here too, minitrader? I'm at Section 4...just a bit after the toll exit, left side.

KC Loh, nasi dagang etc. - it's amazing that you can find any type of food not just in KD but in most places in the Klang Valley. This is one of the things that I like here - the variety and choices. Never thought I'd could ever be comfortable here, but to my pleasant surprise, I am. Much higher cost of living, of course. But a lot more opportunities too.

It's like he has some vested interest and doing his darn best to try discourage people from even thinking about buying. Someone holding JCY-HA on the side and hoping to make a bigger killing? Something like a TP of 0.55 or so could have been a lot more reasonable - if it does get near there, then you come up with a revised TP of 0.35. But stating this figure now... it doesn't sound right. For all its problems, JCY isn't Cybert or Ingens. And it's still in the plus for the current financial year.

It's Kelantan, and I had lived in Pasir Mas for 28 years before moving to Batang Kali in 2010, and then Kepong and finally Kota Damansara when I remarried. It took me a quite some time to even understand where the different places are in relation to one another.

The katak bawah tempurung is correct - to my thinking, town "A" follows B, then C, D, E and so on. So, if you are at B and wants to go to E, you MUST pass by C and D first. But that's not so in the Klang Valley! There are different roads that connects one particular area. WOW! Have to say I'm impressed with the road system here.

Had already bought at 0.04 and now nervously hoping the mother wouldn't slide further:-) But one great comfort with CU is its long expiry date.

Oh, ya... now TV3 is under Media Prima. Forgot about that. And to think that I had once worked with NST.

I thought it's at Ampang?? Anyway, I wouldn't even know how to get there on my own. Rather new with the Klang Valley - it's my wife who does the driving 90% of the time (I'm limited to "Slow down, please...making me scared.") I know One Utama is somewhere near the house but I don't know which road to take. KL? I've never driven there on my own Haha!

Toll from my house, Kota Damansara.

But I sympathise with those who had bought this week and didn't get out fast enough. The technical readings were positive and it looked to be on an uptrend. No one can really accuse them of being `impulsive'. The poorer quarter results aren't really a huge surprise. But the sharp fall is. I have the feeling JCY has run its course as one of the top "speculator's counter". When people get burnt too often, they wouldn't return. Time to move on to other counters - the likes of Perisai etc.

Ampang Park - too far, traffic jam. I don't want to pay toll:-P

Been quiet over the past weeks. But it has quietly gone on an uptrend since early October, unnoticed by everyone. Looks promising but the volume is currently low. Worth watching though because this is an oil & gas counter.

The market simply doesn't have any power today. Many other quality counters are also down, including Axiata. The oil & gas counters are generally doing okay. In a market like this, being able to defend the previous day's close should be regarded as okay.

If one cares more about capital gains than dividends, warrants make more sense. Especially if he thinks the mother will go up in the near future. Given the same amount of capital, warrants will beat ordinary shares hands down. If you have a lot of capital and prepared to wait, plus satisfied with smaller gains, then ordinary shares might be better. After all, 10% of RM1 million is a lot. But the warrants kaki would scoff at 10% Haha!

There are the risks, of course. But then there are always risks when you trade/invest in anything; even in the so-called blue chips and `rock solid' counters. In reality, there aren't anything that's truly rock solid. Come in at the wrong time, even with gold etc., and we'll make a loss.

9.4% is definitely attractive - much more than what you'd get with a fixed deposit and most trust funds. And you'd have to wait a year to get that. But the expiry... I wouldn't dare to risk it. However, the other CWs look reasonable. The mother looks to be on an uptrend, especially after the announcement on Honda-Proton.

This is one of the most under-valued counters in BSKL. Unfortunately, only Tabung Haji is interested with other institutional investors seemingly shying away from it. Each time it goes on an upswing, Mudajaya has difficulty breaking past 2.90. But its present range of 2.55-2.90 offers enough margin to make profits from although a trader need to wait a bit.

I don't have any JCY shares or its warrants this time. Was late and hesitant about jumping in last week. Everyone is entitled to his own opinion but an analyst or journalist must also practice some caution and have some reservations knowing that a lot more people would read what they say. That's unlike us here. There might be pessimism about JCY but 0.35?!

By the way, if that's what OSK thinks, it should come out with new call warrants to reflect the current situation. The warrants remaining in the market look very outdated now (except for HA, of course). OSK should come up with one at 0.70 and another at 0.50 and sell them at reasonable prices. Hey, why not 0.50 because OSK will still make money because it says JCY's TP is only 0.35!

Just to up the stake, I'll also run naked until The Curve HAHA! But OSK has to put up something too - can it give me 10,000 units of JCY if it doesn't reach 0.35 within a reasonable period?

People bearish and pessimistic about the market, and especially companies that might be affected by the General Elections like Gamuda and MRCB can consider its put warrant -HA:

Ex. Price 3.68; Ratio 4:1; Expires 28/2/13.
The mother is now at 3.67.

But there aren't any reasonable lots on offer - all at just 100 lots from 0.07 onwards. Which isn't the market maker putting these on the market? Too scared it will strike?

At 0.07, the punter will break even if Gamuda goes down to 3.40 - definitely not impossible. Is this why AM isn't selling? The lots on offer doesn't look sincere - no one will buy so few. Just not worth the brokerage fees.

Keep this report by OSK, highlight and post it to them later. 0.35...? If it really does drop down to this, I'll go to their nearest branch near Sunway Giza and bow to each and every staff including the cleaner. If it doesn't get anywhere near this, I have only one word to describe the person who wrote it - bangang.

Betting on -CW at 0.02. I feel the downside risk is low. At worst, should be able to sell it back at the same price and lose only the brokerage charges, which is considered as break even.

This is similar to what happened after the last quarter report. Did JCY report a LOSS? No, it's just a lower profit. This is something that people have already guessed about. After all there were already concerns about its HDD business and it certainly wasn't expected to improve on quarter. So why such a sharp fall? People may suspect market manipulators but I think one obvious reason is this - it has too many contra players, and the earlier panic started a chain reaction of people wanting to cut loss.

From previous experience with Mudajaya, the share price movements seem unaffected by things like this; of whether a quarterly report is seen as positive or not. We've had news of Mudajaya doing this and that, or getting whatever contract... but yet there was not much impact on the price. With Mudajaya, if it wants to go up, it will do just that. And likewise.

By the way, it has been quiet for some weeks already. Wouldn't be surprised should it suddenly wake up and go on an upswing... and then go back to sleep.

As with ordinary shares, if we can just get the TIMING right when buying and also selling, then things will be absolutely perfect. With this in mind, and with making profits our sole objective, it doesn't really matter what counter that we're in.

As we often see in the market, a high quality, dividend-paying counter won't necessarily translate into profits when we buy. Come in at the wrong time and it doesn't matter how many billions the company had made and how glorious its future may be. The most recent examples are the telcos - TM, Axiata, Digi and Maxis to an extent. And we have also seen how obviously lousy companies can result in significant profits. It's all a question of "When", which is extremely difficult to get right since we simply don't know the future.

But we can try our best...

One way is through technical analysis (TA). It's not perfect but it does help. At the very least, we won't be flying totally blind. Not that we'll have crystal-clear vision either with TA - it's just that TA can be a very useful tool in helping make decisions. But we'll have to put in the time to learn and practice. As with any other skill, our knowledge of TA will improve when we continuously learn.

At the moment, I'm trying to use both fundamentals and TA to help choose which counter and when. Plus plain gut feeling which comes about from previous experiences, one's interpretation of the current situation and prediction of the near future. There are so many variables, some of which we don't fully know about. This isn't perfect but what is? To profit from the market, we have to buy (and then sell). That means at some point we must make decisions.

With warrants, often we'd have to jump the gun in that we come in just a bit earlier before the crowd does. If we wait until there's a clear breakout signal in the mother's price, the CWs would likely have already gone up and there's not much safety margin left for newcomers. It would be okay if the mother continues to rise. But sometimes the CWs had already factored this in (they are often ahead), and we'd be left holding the bag. But at the same time, coming in early isn't a guarantee of profits either. Sometimes the mother simply fails to take off.

The market and warrants are tough. But one encouraging truth that I know is this: despite all the problems, it's definitely possible to make money:-) That's enough reason for me to keep on doing this.

Antz78, I'm also quite new with warrants. It's just that you are even newer:-) I'm still learning and trying to be more successful with trading it. As with ordinary shares, I've made both profits and losses over the past few months. Have learned some very valuable lessons from these and I hope to avoid repeating mistakes while trying to repeat the good trades.

You can view CWs as "a (much) cheaper alternative to buying ordinary shares". For example with TM - RM5,400 can get you 1,000 units of it. But with the same amount, you can 135,000 units of TM-CU. If TM goes up 10 sen to 5.50, you'll get a gross profit of RM100. After deducting the buying and selling costs, it will be about RM30 - just enough for a trip to MacDonald's for two.

The price movement of warrants, percentage-wise, are often magnified compared to the mother. It's a question of MOMENTUM, which I define as the level of excitement and hope induced in other traders coming as a result of seeing the mother moving. When there's excitement, most people don't stop to calculate and think about premiums, gearing and such - their only question is "Is there a good chance to make money from buying it at this price?"

If the mother gains 10 sen during the trading session, that should be enough for the CU to go to 0.045 at least. An otherwise `miserable' half a sen x 135,000 units will bring in RM6,075. After deducting the cost, you'll have a profit of RM640. Compare that to the RM30 earlier and you'll understand why some of the people here are so enthusiastic about warrants.

Of course there's the downside too. The most obvious is that if the trade doesn't work out, the reverse will happen. And it's *very* painful. So, just keep this in mind when you want to indulge in warrants. It's that old "Bigger risk, bigger reward (or "loss").

"Trade and financial management" - I feel one must get this right. This includes risk management. Our capitals may be different in amount but the basics are essentially the same. Over-extending yourself, too many contra trades etc. often gets one in trouble. With warrant trading over a period of time, it's impossible to make profits each and every time.

The key is to minimise losses whenever we make a wrong call and to maximise profits from the right trades. This is easier said than done, of course. But it's something that we will just have to continue learning to do well, and this will be a lifelong lesson. Over time, however, when one learns from his various trading experiences and through sharing with others - plus through improving our selves (spiritual, psychological) - we do get better.

I'd say it wouldn't matter too much which CW it is (except CV at that ridiculous selling price) although the individual's profit would definitely differ from another based on variables like when one chooses to sell. I doubt those who buy now would still be holding it around Sept. next year. The main concern is the mother's performance, of course - if it goes down, then everyone loses.

The market is so unpredictable. MRCB announced better profits but the share price goes down.

Come on, TM!...finish in the plus today, please. If investors feel the bottom has been reached, it will start to rebound. Would be great if it ends the week at 5.60. Doesn't look like so at the moment but it doesn't take too much for a counter like this to add those sen.

@Antz78, this is from a comment at the Sime-CR thread about gearing. You can replace the instances of "Sime-CR" with the warrants kcchongnz listed above:

[Cut & Paste]
Posted by passerby > Oct 30, 2012 09:34 PM | Report Abuse

gearing = underlying price / ( warrant price x exercise ratio )

it is a measurement of how many number of underlying equivalent you can purchase with a unit price of the underlying

for Sime-CR, gearing should be = 9.80 / (0.04 x 8 ) = 30.6 times theoretically. However, the effective gearing ratio could be less

high gearing = high leverage exposure. 1 tick of movement, you will see a significant % of gain or drop. It always associated with high risk

If you see the mathematical equation, high gearing happens when
:-

a) all parameters the same ( warrant price & ratio ) but underlying price went higher = means warrant trading at low premium or discount

b) all parameters the same ( underlying & ratio ) but warrant price went lower = means warrant is deeply out of money

* notes, exercise ratio is a constant, you can safely ignore it in your analysis on the mathematical equation.

You can do the rest of the analysis on your own from here :)

if this continue, sooner or later, all the fundamental kakis become punters kaki already

Great analysis, kcchongnz! The reason for my choosing CU over the others: 1) I'm comfortable with the premium and gearing. 2) Better volume.

Despite it having a higher bar to clear as compared to CT, I feel it's achievable. Might not look so at the moment, with TM on a downtrend (which I think has bottomed) and a gloomy mood hanging around it. But I'm working on the premise that it's an index-linked counter and favoured by fund managers - local and foreign - when they buy.

Yeah, it's a double-edged sword, of course, as seen from the slide, which came about due to some of them selling. But, as seen in the past, there is a season for both. When the buying arrives again, TM is the type of counter that easily adds 10 sen or more in a trading day. This is what creates excitement among traders and many will be rushing in. CU doesn't have to strike - when I get "enough", I'll take the profits. At least that's the plans and strategy.

kcchongnz, Actually many people do read your posts on CWs... because there are many people here who are into it. But they might be more focused on different counters... their own favourites. I'm okay with any counter, as long as it's not obviously `haram' like GAB, Genting and the likes.

Main criteria - 1) Fundamentally okay 2) TA shows an uptrend. But often we have to jump the gun. Can't wait for it to breakout first before buying. By then it would be too expensive and risky, without a safety margin.

By the way, the Dialog-CL you mentioned is doing well today:-) It's already profitable but I think I'm going to wait a bit. The possibility of it striking is quite good.

Too late. Already bought CU at 0.04. Instead of punting, I've become a `semi-investor' with this one:-) The long expiry date makes this a cheap entry to TM. I'm okay about not getting dividends - capital appreciation is the goal.

TM-CV offered at 0.08 by OSK. Now why would anyone want to buy this when -CU offers a better deal, and at 0.04??

CV - Ex. 6.00; Ratio 6; Expiry 26/8/13
CU - Ex. 6.00; Ratio 4; Expiry 30/9/13

This one is worth watching. If it breaks past 1.78 convincingly, then 1.90 or more is possible. The technical readings are turning positive. The main worry is how MRCB will respond to news of the next GE.

Thanks, Shirley. This one I have to disagree: " he say no point buy sell buy sell, end up broker make all the money," --- While there's merit to Buy & Hold, one can't be rigid with it. Or with any system for that matter. Have to be flexible and adapt to changing situations and climates. Especially now due to the volatile markets. With me, if there's a profit, I'll take it. Sometimes (often?) the price would slide back to where it previously was. Or worse. It's wise to hold in a bull market or when a counter is on a clear uptrend. But at present things gyrate up and down, sometimes wildly. Holding might result in one not having anything to show for all his patience.

The comment and link from kcchongnz help to explain my question above. This isn't a counter that I follow but its frequent appearance in the Top 10 in Volume does make me curious. Apparently there's suspicion that things aren't what they appear to be - "profits" and "assets" might exist only on spreadsheets. KNM isn't for investors but speculators. Maybe it's better to punt TH Heavy, which is around the same price. In comparison, THH's financials look a lot clearer.

It announced a profit for the last quarter... and the price went down!? Strange.

The Halliburton announcement yesterday did help the price a bit. But not much because it was already anticipated. The 1st quarter report - although just a small increase, it nonetheless is confirmation that Dialog is on a very sound footing. SKPetro has gone up to where it should be, and I believe Dialog will follow suit.

JCY seems to be back in favour.
Astro - I don't know... maybe not yet.
AirAsia - Very possible. I'm looking at AirAsia-CW at 0.02 as a cheap way to enter. If the mother rebounds to just 3.00 or so, the momentum should carry CW to 0.03/04.

MRCB - I think this one will go up tomorrow (Wed).

@lmf_hau, That's true. In this current situation, I feel the mother is better too for these reasons:

1) JCY has most likely bottomed out 2) Even if you have to wait, there's no expiry 3) It is a dividend-paying company. Don't know what its next quarter will be like. But whatever, it is a better company than many of those current favourites that speculators buy.

I've been fortunate in that I've made money with -CF a few times. Was/Am concerned the ex price is a bit too high to achieve. Don't want to push my luck... and I miss out this time. But that's okay. - can't win all the time:-)

By the way, why didn't I buy the mother? Because... I've gotten greedy HAHA! After those successful previous trades with various CWs, I now aim for 25%-plus margins. Now I focus mainly on CWs - the poor man's shares:-)

The Agora Financial training module: although I'm trying to implement what I've recently learned i.e. in trading counters with ascending triangles, I'm also using `my own system' when trading call warrants. With CWs, one often have to jump the gun, use gut feeling and simply jump in.

Like today - I've been following the telcos and despite their TAs not indicating a "Buy", I still went in for TM-CU. Reason? Ex price of 6.00 and ratio of 5:1 are reasonable, and I have until 30/9/13 for it to move. At 0.04... I'm willing to risk it regardless of what the charts say. Should TM stage a mild rebound of just a few sen in the next few days, I don't think I can get the CU at that price again. And you guys who are also into warrants should know this - it doesn't take too much for a CW to rise 30%.

@kcchongnz, Charts as in Technical Analysis? When it comes to predicting, all of us are doing/have to do it regardless of his method:-) Even if one prefers fundamentals over TA, he *is* forecasting what the future may likely hold when he makes a trade - buys when he forecasts (although we often use "thinks") the company/counter will do well or sell when it's otherwise. We have to do this because we don't know the future until it actually happens.

From my understanding, the better use for charts is to spots patterns in the counter's price movements which come about due to the actions by various faceless people behind these. I'm still in the greenhorn category when it comes to TA and the usage of charts. But have to admit that they are very useful in helping me know more about a counter's movement tendencies. Coupled with fundamentals, plus that unscientific gut feeling factor, charts help a lot with the trading decisions.

By the way, for those who are also relatively new with TA, here is a good site where you can start: http://agorafinancial.com/trading-experiment/?page=portal

Take the time to follow this particular module, including in doing the pre-lesson and post-lesson quiz. Plus watch the 30-minute video.