Worrying the correction would continue but at the same time getting so attracted to the current price of TM. So what to do now...? One alternative - its warrants. The CU at 0.045, ex price and date of 6.00; 30/9/13. This should get rid of the itching:-)

joncsk, have to ask the guys who are into technical analysis. I hope we can get their interpretations of the charts so that we can make a better decision. No one can deny that these are really high-quality counters that will eventually go back up again and are worth waiting. But I don't want to wait too long. Anyway, with Digi, I feel it's still a bit too high when you compare its fundamentals to that of Axiata and Maxis. However, the more important thing is the trend - since it's not clear enough, I'm going to stay at the sidelines for now.

Kenanga's Alex Lu made the right call about telcos last Monday; especially about TM. http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2012/11/telcos-under-selling-pressure.html It was this post that prevented me from buying either TM or Axiata in the hope of riding a rebound. Now TM has become even more attractive and my hands are really itching to hit the "Buy/F1" button:-)

Institutions and long-term investors will always have telcos as part of their portfolio due to their defensive nature and regular dividends. But the percentage as per capital will vary, increasing and decreasing whenever they feel doing either might suit them.

During the past week, it is obvious some are now locking in profits by liquidating their positions. Many individuals among us had benefited by hitching a ride earlier on and rode the upswing. But those who came in late have been left high and dry, and this includes some institutions too. When we read about "institutions", "foreign funds" etc. we tend to think that they are acting in concert and forget that they are *individual* organizations whose managers are trying to out-perform the others. Just like us, these funds would also lose money at times when they get in at the wrong time.

After the correction, these telco counters have become more attractive. But that doesn't automatically mean they are also a "Buy" at the moment. There will be mild rebounds but what is of prime concern is "the trend" - if they are on a downtrend, it wouldn't be prudent to risk our capital just to make a few sen. We have seen this before where "cheap" becomes "cheaper". These counters need big buyers to go back to their previous level; if they don't come back immediately, these counters will not be going anywhere.

I'm very interested in these counters but am wondering whether now is a good time to buy. Alex Lu's post of last Monday about "Telcos under selling pressure" and his subsequent comments are worth noting:
http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2012/11/telcos-under-selling-pressure.html

That's what the fund managers do - the sell AND buy at different times. Even within one organization - EPF for instance - there are different managers with their own portfolios. When one guy's counter goes up, he'll sell to lock in the profit. The following day, his colleague might buy the same thing. Even within the same organization, it's every man for himself ad for his portfolio only. He doesn't care whether his colleagues make a loss.

I've been sitting by the sidelines and not buying anything just yet - AirAsia, Astro etc. But if these two come down to an attractive-enough level, then I'm in again. Have to also consider the coming GE and the knee-jerk reaction it will cause initially when it's about to be announced. Counters like MRCB, UEM Land, Gamuda etc. will likely be affected. But AirAsia and Astro won't be affected too badly.

By the way, the -CW -- at 0.03 it's worth a risk. But must see how the mother performs tomorrow.

If you are the cowboy type who doesn't give two hoots about fundamentals, this counter is worth watching tomorrow. Will it rebound? I certainly don't know. But with a goreng counter like this, anything is possible. Would it really be a surpise should it go to 0.50 or more in the next couple of sessions?

RHB says "Buy", TP 7.15. It might reach this price, but not in the foreseeable future. When fund managers are selling, it's more prudent to let this pass first before attempting to pick up `bargains'. With counters like Axiata, it is their actions that move the price. For us small fries, it's much better to try hitch a ride with them.

This one is sliding fast! It had looked stable earlier on buy suddenly, just like that, it went down. But somehow I'm not really surprised with this kind of (very) speculative counter.

The dividend's ex-date is today and yet it still drops. That means those sellers are forsaking the dividend just to get back their capital (they are either locking in the profit albeit being reduced since they didn't sell earlier, or to cut loss). It stands to reason that there will likely be more selling from tomorrow onwards by those who had ensured their dividend by holding on today. This doesn't look promising. Maybe it's better to wait and see how it goes from tomorrow onwards.

millionaire, the GE will be the joker in the set of cards for us traders. Various aspects of the GE will most likely affect the prices and create volatility. Rumours of parliament about to be dissolved will be the first one, and when it eventually becomes official.

I believe the general market might go down during this period. People will adopt a wait-and-see attitude and prices will likely slide. By how much remains to be seen although I don't think it will be too sharp. Counters that are perceived to be politically-connected will be affected - MRCB, UEM Land, Gamuda etc. But this offers an opportunity for us. However, we will have to get the election's outcome right - if you think BN will do better this time, it might be a good idea to buy those counters during the correction period and wait. But if you think Pakatan will do better, then maybe it's more prudent to just sit and wait. "Uncertain outcome" - this one won't be good for the stock market.

@bryan88 - Actually I'm rather new with warrants. I've been in the stock market for quite some years (although not continuously) but for some reason I've never had any interest in warrants. Especially call and put warrants. It's probably because they have expiry dates, and you don't get dividends. But this changed through my involvement in this group. As I learn more about CWs through some of the people here, I finally realise that they are indeed a good alternative to the ordinary shares. Now I have allocated a certain percentage of the capital on CWs with the rest in ordinary shares. If you have limited capital, CWs offer the best bang for the buck. Just keep in mind that it will work the other way too when we made the wrong trade.

Look out for comments by people like Passerby, kcchongnz, alntm, richman etc. I also remember a few threads that might have useful information for you, the Bank Islam-HA, Sime-CR etc. Not about the warrants but the information which they have shared. Essential things premium, gearing, momentum - arm yourself with knowledge of these first. There's no guarantee that anyone can make profits consistently because there are various variables that we have no way of knowing that will come into play and affect the prices. So we do the next best thing - educate ourselves, do proper research and discuss with an open mind before making a decision. Good luck!

@tonylim, I have written so many comments here and there that I can't remember where it is. Doesn't necessarily mean at the CA thread... because I'd talk about Amedia at Astro:-P Now I get that feeling again which all of us will feel sooner or later, and repeatedly when we are in the stock market whenever we picked a winner but sold too quickly. Another one for me was Scomi Group - bought at 0.215 and sold well before 0.30. But I think it all balances out, because in most of the other trades, I went out just in time. With these, I made profits because I didn't hang on hoping for more.

tonylim: Yeah, that's the essence of it. The counter and fundamentals are actually secondary. With entry and exit, occasionally we might execute them both perfectly. But can't get them right each and every time. It got it right when buying SKPetro-CA (at 0.065). Made a profit but my exit was much too early. Could have gotten a lot more. Sigh... But never mind - at least I can take heart that the selection was spot on. There will be similar opportunities in the future if we do our research and have the patience to wait.

Now the CG is 0.05. That's a significant drop from 0.06 earlier. Ex 2.30, 29/3/13, 3:1...

AirAsia sliding all of a sudden...

Its warrants aren't too hot with traders at the moment. But CG has decent volume, ex price at 2.30 and 29/3/13 selling at 0.06 now - not very exciting but looks reasonable. Not buying yet but will definitely follow the mother's movements.

hangjebat, nothing wrong with CB either. 3.75 ex price is some way off but its expiry in August 2013 gives some margin for waiting. 0.015... this will be very difficult but you can try:-)

That's prudent. It's always nice to see one's counter go up and up. But there comes a time when we have to get out to lock in the profits; turning "paper gains" to something that's real. It might still go up but that's okay - the guy who buys it should make some profits too. The cake is big enough.

Counting the profit I would have made had I not sold too early. Trying very hard to accept this and move on... because I did make a profit:-) Actually, had bought it lower than that - at 0.065. This is yet another lesson - when we have done our homework and feel that a counter has potential, and its CWs are selling at reasonable premiums with ex prices that "look possible", then buy and wait regardless of the sentiments at that time.

Warrants - for me, it looks like trading in them have been more profitable than investing. But one has to accept the losses that would inevitably come his way when he trades often enough. Can't have winners all the time. The trick is in reducing the losses to the minimum possible.

I received one too last Saturday:-)

This one has potential, especially for investors who have the holding power. Sometimes might even work for the contra traders too. Faber is the type of counter which analysts would say "Buy on weakness".

ongtkong, wanted to say SKPetro-CA but now it's too late. This one also has sentimental reasons for me - it was the first CW I bought and made money from. However, I wouldn't dare to buy at this present level after the sharp rise over the past few trading sessions... always worrying about the possibility of a correction. And to think it was languishing at 0.06-0.065 for so long and was there for the taking!

That's how the shrewd ones make money - they don't just buy one or two CW counters but spread them out among those with potential. They have a mind of their own and often would go against the crowd i.e. in buying when things look gloomy and selling when the other traders rush in.

At the moment I'm just observing. Astro - as mentioned yesterday, will have to wait for signs of a rebound first before buying any of its CWs.

DRB-Hicom - also the same. It went up recently after the Honda announcement but has come down again. This one is news-driven - try to anticipate an impetus and get in before it. Details of the Honda deal will be announced later this month. Perhaps it will create excitement again?

AirAsia - I feel 3.00 is a solid support. AA may have found its base from where it can push upwards. Been at the low 3.00 for some time now. Watch out for this one too, especially the CW and CX.

With me, it's more of "watching and waiting" at the moment.

ongtkong, CE's ex price at 2.88 is the closest as compared to the others. But with a ratio of 8, and its current 0.045, it will need to reach 3.24 for the warrant buyer to break even. The plus here is its expiry at 28/10/13 - comfortable enough. If Astro rebounds, I think this particular CW will be sought after.

CB, CG, CI - lower selling price now for obvious reasons in that the ex prices look so far off. But, like CE, they have a lot of life in them yet due to the expiry dates with CB expiring on 30/8/13 and the other two later still. These offer possibly the most potential profits percentage-wise should Astro rebound. But you will have to be quick in riding the momentum. The problem - the high ex price, with CG at 4.18. Phew!

I'm not buying anything just yet. But I'm watching CE - if there's an upward movement, this is the one that I'm betting on. By the way, note that it isn't necessarily a "good buy"... because there are better CWs elsewhere.

Not a good day for the stock market today - not just Astro but also many others. Not much potential to make money at the moment. Sentiments are rather subdued and it's difficult to make a successful trade. Only the speculative counters seem to offer some action but not really so today. Will have to wait until things pick up a bit.

If 0.30 doesn't hold, it will most likely slide further. Very important psychological support here.

Warrants...due to their leverage. Percentage-wise, a trader will get significantly higher profits than the mother given the same capital amount. But it works the other way too when there's a fall.

Not just Amedia but also the other speculative ones. Traders got jittery due to Tiger sliding.

This is like watching a football match with its ups and downs. So dramatic. Take care guys - you know what you're getting into with a counter like this.

Yeah, I was a purely fundamental investor just some months ago. Then it became more of a trader but decisions are still based on fundamentals. At the moment I have diversified - a certain percentage of the capital goes to higher risk trades that include warrants. With this category, good fundamentals are nice but the more important element would be "buy on speculation"... and get out when things move to a certain point. Thanks for the explanation - now those gearing numbers in The Edge finally mean something:-)

ktrader has just asked the very same question that I had wanted to just a minute ago! I do know about the ratio, premium etc. but am also quite blur when it comes to gearing. Hope kcchongnz or someone can help to elaborate this, please.

"Will PNB Place a Monkey on Sime Darby's Back?" bit.ly/SqKz1f

@Taugeh got this one right too, discussing it at the Astro post just last Thursday. That's three out of four, and they have been significant: UEM Land, DRB-Hicom. The laggard is GPRO which he mentioned yesterday.

sheridansulik, Yes, you were one of its strongest supporters here. Your comments after I bought it the first time (0.395) and later (0.415) just before the rights issue had helped me to keep faith in it, when it kept sliding to this level. Anxious times, but we were rewarded for our belief that TH Heavy had undergone the storm and was on the way up again. Don't know about 1.20 but at least it's now at the minimum where it deserves to be. This was one of my best stock selections (along with Scomi Group and SKPetro).

@bryan88, By the way, you can use this online calculator to help with things. Try changing the fields here and there so that you'll have a better idea of things and therefore make more informed decisions http://www.bursawave.com/warrant-calculator/

The Edge's Financial Daily is also a good source to quickly see the previous day's premiums and expiry dates so that you won't buy too high. But actually, from my (short) experience with warrants, it's the momentum that really counts, not premiums, when it comes to making a profit. Plus in getting out fast.

saufi74, that's true. Everyone wants to make a profit, and wants to buy low. But wishing for others to suffer just so we can do so is insensitive and uncalled for. We should take into consideration of others' feelings when writing.

I'm with Affin and warrants don't add to the credit limit. Or at least not through the online trading facility. But I can still buy something should I call the remisier...within a reasonable limit, of course.

Whether your money burns or not will depend on its price then as per the warrant's stated ex price and ratio. If it is above the ex price and ratio given, then you will get something back. Might not be the full amount that you had paid when you bought the warrants, but something nonetheless. But if it's below the ex price and ratio, then you lose everything. That's how I understand it.

This is a rather sharp fall. This is the danger with this kind of speculative counters where the rugged could be pulled from under the latecomer's feet just like that.

Heheh! Bukan nazar, cuma "possibility" aje. By the way, Sime will be paying a 25 sen dividend on 14 Dec. 2012 "to depositors whose names appear in the Record of Depositors on 30 November 2012". This is quite significant <---(I'm trying to create interest and thereby a rise in price).

This resolution will 99.999% sure to be passed at its AGM on 8 November. But the more important question is one of the resolutions - of Datuk E. Sreesanthan offering himself to be re-elected as a director. He's facing charges of insider trading and had previously said he will not seek reelection. PNB and the major shareholders will have to be firm about this.

I've adjusted my warrants tradings a bit - now buying those that have surpassed their respective exercise prices. This is a cheaper way to try benefit from counters that one feels have potential to go up in the shorter term. But if one is a genuine punter, he'd go for the long odds like CI and wait, in the hope that *something* will happen within the duration for a sudden spike in its price.

I'm staying away from its warrants for the moment. Just looking. The higher-priced CWs look so far away as to be almost unachievable. The one with the highest volume, CG: 4.18, ratio of 5. Now at 0.03 - you'll need it to reach 4.33 on ex date just to break even. CI looks a better bet; 4.00, ratio 2, 0.03. Break even at 4.06 with ex date that is almost the same as CG. But just because it's a better bet than CG doesn't mean you should buy it.

The lowest-priced is CE (2.88) but with an 8 ratio... Good luck to you guys who already have positions. It's just a question of momentum created by the mother. A 30%-plus profit margin is always possible with CWs although it can go the other way too of course.

Okay, noted. Thanks.

What a letdown after last week's very promising performance. Is it due to contra players closing their positions? I don't think many would have been interested in IHH since there were better trades elsewhere (Tiger, TH Heavy, Astro etc.)

@bryan88 - Yes, the buying and selling are the same as ordinary shares. Just keep in mind that the warrants have expiry dates. Plus their profits and losses are magnified, percentage-wise as compared to the mother shares. The mother might come down 25 sen or 10% but the warrants might lose 50%. Same with when they go up.

Also take note that some investment houses don't accept warrants as collateral for your account. If you have RM10k ordinary shares, the broker might give you a credit limit of RM15-20k or thereabout. But they might not give the same with warrants.

At 0.04, with the exercise price at 9.50, you break even when the mother is 9.82. Sime went to 9.83 briefly just now. The CR's premium is very attractive. But, as with all CWs, it will depend on how the mother fares, of course. CR expires in March 2013.

The E&O deal last year left a sour taste in the mouth even for those who don't have its shares. The 33% point may not have been triggered but the cynical manner in which only selected significant shareholders were involved had created a lot of anger and resentment.

The article - do you mean the one in The Edge weekly? The writer had raised a lot of pertinent points and I hope the media and the influential bloggers would help focus the attention towards them. Come to think of it, all of us have a joint stake in Sime considering the shares PNB and EPF holds. And that's not counting the others like Tabung Haji etc. too. So much wealth and potential under the various divisions of Sime but these aren't properly utilised.

passerby, it's about time Sime moves up a bit. Most of the other index-linked counters have been doing okay but Sime is a laggard. The E&O "GO or No GO?" case has been a drag - don't know which way it will go so I hope the hedging experiment works. If Sime does have to make a GO, it is huge enough to afford it. The mother would be affected somewhat but I don't think the CR will go down that much - 0.03 at most...? Whatever paper loss I might make should be offset by the rise in E&O's CW.

Another factor that will affect Sime is its AGM (on 8 Nov if I'm not mistaken). I'm flabbergasted that Datuk E. Sreesanthan, who is being charged with insider trading, has offered himself to be re-elected as a director! He had previously said he will resign pending the cases, which would have been the right thing to do. But now he's changing his tune with the "Innocent until proven guilty" line.

Sime's major shareholders, especially PNB and EPF, will have to do the right thing and vote against him. By doing so, there will be some hope of proper corporate governance in Sime and thereby attracting institutional investors, especially the foreign ones. Sime is the type of counter where retail investors are almost totally powerless to affect any meaningful movements in its price. The best we can do is to try hitch a ride with the big guys.

Taugeh, GPRO... okay, I'll keep a very close watch on it. Usually I don't come near this kind of speculative counter. But now I do allocate a certain percentage of the capital on the very high risk trades - from stockmarket profits. However, the total amount isn't too big - will feel the sting should I lose it but will still be able to remain in the market. With the market as it is, it seems that the penny stocks offer more potential for profits than the `quality' ones.

soljadu, sorry to hear that. Astro would have been a great counter had it not been for the pricing which is rather on the high side. Great for the major shareholders like Ananda Krishnan but not for newcomers. FGV - why didn't you sell it earlier??

`New Records', but this doesn't mean anything for many retail investors. The rises mostly involves the index-linked counters while second and third-liners aren't going anywhere. This is the pseudo-bull market - there is no breadth. But should the index-linked come down, the others will too even when they haven't gone up in the first place!

As we have seen time and time again in the stockmarket, sentiments can change just like that. Something that was previously shunned can suddenly become the darling. And regardless of what analysts and other `experts' had said. The latest is Tiger... DRB-Hicom, UEMLand, Benalec and so on. All too often, we'd shake our heads and wonder "Why didn't I buy it when it was at xxx??" BECAUSE we don't know the future, that's why. To have this gift of being able to get in at just the right moment... this is one of my fantasies:-)