Why so bloody complicated. Stick to fundamental lah

Thanks uncle Koon. Let's huat together

This is one stock that can potentially go up by 100% over next two years. Stick to it. Don't go in and out for peanut gain.

And also , don't be chicken. If it drops back to 80 Sen, let it be. Remember, it is merely paper loss.

Pick right, be patient and aim high. Big money is always made like that.

Look like want to gradually nudge it up.

I dumb dumb hold only

No 180 no sell

Buying new land in Vietnam to expand factory

young man, you make your first bucket of gold then come back to talk to me. Otherwise all rubbish

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Jon Choivo I bet you make way more from overly optimistic people who follow you :)

There is a very fine line between being realistic and cynical.

And for the person making money off the optimist, it might be best for him to imply those who are realistic as cynical individuals, and hope that whatever said, does not dampen the exuberance of the foolish optimist.

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Posted by Icon8888 > Sep 14, 2018 10:59 AM | Report Abuse

ok ok whatever...

why are you so cynical ? everything people said you will imagine ulterior motive, cheating, etc... aiyohhhh why I keep bumping into people like you... that means there must be a lot of cynics out there...

good also lah... cynics cannot think straight... easier to make money from them..

I encourage you all to continue your way of thinking ... good good good...
14/09/2018 11:43
14/09/2018 11:47

don't be so self righteous

look for opportunity

there is money to be made if you have a right strategy

Posted by alextan5680 > Sep 14, 2018 10:01 AM | Report Abuse

Still got pp trust this conman
Another holland trip wait all of u

why do people believe that Uncle K got margin call problem ?

there are many possible reasons he sold down his stake recently

for example : he wants to move part of his money to proxies so that he can play the stock more effectively (without the need to disclose when buy when sell, at what price, etc)

or some other reasons

stick to fundamentals, don't try to guess his mind

buy if you think the stock is cheap, otherwise stay away

Casino open for business

Lai lai lai place your bets

Make sense. It is the fastest way to establish capacity

Posted by rojakmee > Sep 12, 2018 11:07 PM | Report Abuse

Chenese company start buying local electronic manufacture unisem. later all EMS in Malaysia will be taken up by chinese company resulting from Trump tariff

Huat ah....

Yes KC I understand. I know you quite well

I usually don't go into such details. Like qqq3 always said "garbage in garbage out"

Having said so, please don't be discouraged by my comments, go on and discuss whatever you guys like. I keep my mind open

Posted by DK66 > Sep 9, 2018 01:46 PM | Report Abuse

The construction profit has to be included as part of the capital when measuring the IRR. The IRR calculation is based on the project cost of US$1.87b. In this case the IRR must be referring to the Project IRR not Equity IRR. Equity IRR of only 12% will be too low considering the size of the investment, the sovereign risks and the cost of equity capital.

The vietnamese regulations on the IRR is only relevant when negotiating the PPA for approval based on the most probable operating conditions.

When we are faced with limited information about a project, Project/Equity IRR of a project becomes a valuable piece of information. Subject to certain assumptions, given the cost of the project, the debt ratio, the payback period and the operation period, we could be able to roughly make a projection of the FCF pattern.

In my opinion, assumption of RM100m annual FCF is far too low and is contradicting both 12% IRR and 8 years payback period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
To me, whether it is lucrative to invest in a company has any business sense must depend on, at least some estimations; how much I pay for the investment, and how much is my potential return.

1) IRR is only relevant when we carry out a financial feasibility studies. IRR must be higher then the cost of equity, taking into and topping it up with all the risks and their premiums involved. But now we are investing in Jaks at this moment in time, of which the power plant is one of the projects, we are be concerned of what its future cash flows, free cash flows in particular, for Jaks for the next 25-30 years. This is important as we can compare with what we pay for Jaks, and if this price is a good price, if we want to talk about investing for long-term, rather than speculating for short-term gains.

2) what is this "profits"? I guess you must be referring to the annual profits of the entity. So 30% for Jaks? Is this the same as free cash flows? Does it mean the entity just came up with USD160m initial capital, and getting FCF of USD150m when the power plant starts, and for the next 24 years? You said the JV partners need not come out with any more capital because the construction profit will pay for the remainder equity. This can't be true, can it. If so this must be the most lucrative PPA in the world and in history with IRR>30%?

3) IRR 12% is quite correct then if payback period is 8 years. But this must be cash flows then. But this statement disproves the above. The payback period is much shorter if the initial investment is 160m but 5 years later the jv makes 150m and continues.

4)Let say the profit is actually FCF. How much is RM100 from the power plant translated to EPS for the enlarged 800m shares of Jaks? 12 sen per share? What price are you willing to pay for this cash flows?

Bearing in mind also when we invest in Jaks, I reiterate, invest, we are investing in the whole company of Jaks, its power plant, property and construction, and most of all, its management.

5)No comment.

6) Does this violate the Vietnamese regulations?

I also believe the Vietnamese power profit would likely to be successful. Just ponder if Jaks is worth investing, and at what price.

No, I am not able to make projection of its FCF. I do not know much but just trying to find out more about it for curiosity sake.
09/09/2018 11:37

It always shocks me why so many people are so cynical, thinking that everybody else are trying to take advantage of them. Hollandking is not the only one. Everywhere I go I bump into them

Don't have such a dark view lah. Have some faith on human nature. Most of us are not as dirty as you think. We buy and hold, aiming for return in one to two years time. Not coming out here to con anybody to make quick bucks


Posted by hollandking > Sep 9, 2018 01:12 PM | Report Abuse

these ppl must have accumulated on the down, now want pump up, previously when down no talk, now repasted everything. Is quite interesting, it revealed who are those hiding behind the back, who they really are.

Nope, I just walked around, have a cup of tea by the lakeside

I am a low energy person

Next time will drink coffee with you

btw KC I visited your Kampung last year (Auckland)

very friendly people,

thumbs up

I like this. You are very experienced and seasoned. The only thing is that all this time you did not liberate your mind to think about the possibility on the other side of the fence.

You are like the book worm in school that always behave properly. We are the evil friends that try to bring you to karaoke

Posted by kcchongnz > Sep 9, 2018 12:25 AM | Report Abuse

I thought of punting too ....

I mitigate the risks by betting not too big. Save me a lot of trouble to think about tough questions like yours below

might increase exposure at later date (as we move closer and closer to completion), play by ear

if I don't have position, I don't have the feel


Posted by kcchongnz > Sep 9, 2018 12:23 AM | Report Abuse

Icon,

What do you think your good friend thought Jaks is worth say RM30, ja(c)ked the share price up to RM1.80+ from a penny stock, but sold off at RM1.10?

For what he thinks is a great company with multibagger potential, can't wait for a few years to see the fruits of success?

No idea. the information is simply not available. Between you and me, I am approaching it as a trader (hush hush don't tell others). MIGHT cash out when stock starting to approach my target price (expected to happen as we draw closer to completion). Of course, will hold on if positive cashflow information surfaces and it satisfy my dividend yield stock requirement

play by ear


Posted by kcchongnz > Sep 9, 2018 12:14 AM | Report Abuse

Icon,

Any idea what is the cash flows be for Jaks when power plant in operation? Any estimation?

I buy Jaks because of its earning visibility

many bizarre things are happening to this stock (ask your good friend Uncle koon), they make our head spin.

But things will be easier to understand if we stick to fundamentals.

so this is what DK66 and I are doing.

the 75% 25% structure already include funding for the USD120 mil construction profit

Jaks has come a long way. If now is 2015, I would not dare to touch the stock.

But we are now in 2018 : Jaks has secured a strong partner, officially signed the concession agreement, achieved financial closure, made the agreements unconditional, already kicks start construction (20%), has Uncle Koon as a 20% shareholder (which becomes our watch dog).

From project point of view, the biggest uncertainties are already over. What remains are purely implementation. Based on our past experience investing in construction / concession companies, DK66 and I are of the opinion that completion is usually not a problem. So we make the bet.

It is as simple as that.

DK66 and I acknowledged that Jaks fundamentals are not rock solid. It is kind of under capitalised. There is need to cash call, as evidenced by recent private placements and rights issue etc. However, we believe that the IPP earning potential is big enough to comfortably offset any adverse impact arising from cash call dilution (the amount of which is not really material) and other blemishes (property losses, interest expenses, etc). So we are comfortable with its investment proposition

I dont think Jaks' equity funding for the IPP is much of an issue.

Many people are allergic to rights issue. They cry mum cry dad every time they see cash call.

Big cash call is bad. Small cash call is non event.

Jaks' market cap is almost RM500 mil. A cash call to raise RM60 mil is not severely dilutive. No need to be too alarmed

http://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=171520&name=EA_DS_ATTACHMENTS

the following information is extracted from section 2.10 of Jaks 2015 circular (link below) :

(a) total equity contribution required from Jaks is RM536 mil;

(b) as at 2015, Jaks has already made advances of RM196 mil to IPP. That amount will be capitalised;

(c) IPP construction profit will contribute RM226 mil; and

(d) Jaks to further inject RM114 mil. (probably through the latest rights issue of warrants and private placement)

The above info is correct as at 2015.

desa chan aka stockmoanmy aka qqq3 is indeed a monster. I have never seen people as wicked as him

SSlee has my 100% support

Next week trump will announce 200bil tariff

Furniture stocks will re rate

According to news, Trump tariff can happen as soon as next week

there are two type of people :

One type follows guru wisdom

The other type studies i3 behaviour (regarded as microcosm of the bigger market) and then tailor make their strategy to try to make it work

Type one is Mao Zedong (follow the thoughts of chairman mao)

Type two is Deng Xiaoping (crossing the river by feeling the stones)

Baby Jon is intelligent , but too book worm

Everyday warren buffett Charles munger

zzzzzzz

If there is one person that I would like to meet in i3 is sifu probability. Very deep water

What happened after 24 ?

Steven Covey 7 habits influenced me a lot when I was young. As I grew older, I don't practise them anymore. Prefer to just follow my heart (free spirit)

======

Stephen Covey - 7 habits of highly effective people
On steve Jobs (inside Steve's Brain)
Creativity Inc.
Common Stock and Uncommon Profit
Intelligent investor (----too overrated.... most examples are useless now. Better get a version with footnote. Bond discussion is useless.
Your's truly coldeye book @ popular

Thanks Jon for the list. Good for people like me who seldom read. Most of my time spent playing Tetris. Hhighest score lately 17,000

LOL Jon Lohsoh will be horrified when he read this ....

Posted by Alex™ > Sep 2, 2018 09:17 AM | Report Abuse

... After placed order then go to sleep... Wake up morning then see got hit my stop loss or my target profit... Hehe..

just curious, US got i3 type forum or not ? I want to join if got

told you already, life no meaning if quit i3

lucky you withdrew resignation

Compared to Jon Lohsoh, AlexTM is more street wise. Both are likeable young people

I bought some already at 120+. I am adventurous

newbie911 Skpress looks nice, why u still hesitate to enter?
02/09/2018 08:32

I am surprised too , so many people actually supportive of KYY (including me)



probability aisei...now only we all realizing how a precious gift Koon is to i3....too late liao...:(
01/09/2018 13:10

My starting salary RM600

agree. SSlee why no backbone ? Dare to criticise don't dare to follow through ? I admire people who stands up and speak for justice. What you said about Uncle Soon are not entirely wrong (not entirely right also. But it is your sincere opinion). Why do you need to apologise and beg for forgiveness ?

========

cheoky Sslee u are fake. Succumb to higher rank. Your next letter and comment is rank as good as stock many, qqq3 which is rubbish ranking to me.
01/09/2018 11:19

Tom is always so bitter. I suspect she is a bad temper woman, got dumped by boyfriend

can tell from the way she behaves

Uncle koon is welcomed to also write about stocks lah. No need to be so protective of him. Let him make some mistakes and learn it the hard way lah. He is only 85 yo

(I need him to goreng Jaks lah &^%&&%$#)


Sslee Dear dragonslayer,

If you ask me now whether I want Mr. Koon to stay, I would say NO to his investment article but welcome him to post other topic because he is in danger of losing his credibility with his recent quick fire investment writings bordered to share manipulation.

wah please clarify what you said. I never say sslee cheapskate leh. I like and respect him.

=========

Invest_Sensibly sslee is a man without ethics. How can he post the photo? cheap skate! (I borrow this word from icon8888 bro)
31/08/2018 17:38

sifu probability is a very intelligent person. He always say something profound that stunts me. Respect a lot (even though sometime I cannot exactly grasp what he says)

Respect !!!!

Actually after three times still cannot understand