Have a good weekend folks. Let's aim for RM0.80 and beyond next week.

We might be headed into the RM1.50s soon...

Quarter report not pretty, but the substantial decline in inventories is a major positive.

Wow man all also bickering like kids.

Anyway it does seem like there is lots of selling pressure still over here. No catalyst to buy. I will wait for it to go lower. It's already at an attractive price, but no hurry. The lower you buy in at, the lower your downside risk + the more magnified your eventual returns.

Bottomless better. Let it fall, lower the better. I bought in first at RM0.775, but now am holding off. Long term this one close two eyes will surely rebound. It's the Petronas Group's in-house fabricator. It has net cash per share of ~RM0.41. It has got much more facilities than 3-5 years ago.

This is a good company to bet on with limited downside but unlimited upside. We are talking about a plausible ten-bagger over a 5 year period. Imagine IF oil returns to $100 levels...a number of the local competitors in the fabrication arena are in trouble (such as THHE). There is a third drydock to be built, and a floating dock off Terengganu is also operational. Assets have been written down over the past two years and will continue this year.

To me, this is a low-risk company IN THE LONG TERM. Now, where's the bottom? RM0.62...or maybe RM0.565....or maybe RM0.515? I don't know. I honestly don't know when I go in the second time.

But Charlie Munger and Seth Klarman talk about the fat pitches. This, right here, to me is a fat pitch, and likely to be an even fatter pitch in the coming days and weeks.

If it breaches the RM1bil market cap, it's likely some institutional holders may be forced to sell due to the stock falling outside of their permitted mandate.

Aiya today somehow Malaysia down day. But still close at RM0.75 considered decent already. Now you see the local/foreign IBs increase their TPs to RM0.90++, some maybe even to RM1.00++.

Slow and steady does it. One pip every day for the next 3 months also I ok already!

Looks like the party is over for today. We might need to wait for the IBs to release their reports on Monday morning, as some fund managers may want better clarity before jumping in. I'm also interested to know if the reported profits exceed or fall short of the actual core net profits.

Lol sell on news...only works when the stock is overvalued. The opposite happens when the stock is undervalued...it gets re-rated upwards.

Nice, we tee off at RM0.76. May be hitting RM0.78-RM0.80 by end of the day.

Good luck to all. Personally, my analysis tells me this is just the beginning. Hold-off from selling until we get to the RM0.90 region.

Do not fall in love with a stock either, there will come a time when you should be selling Armada. But today, ... today is not that day. Not yet.

If you back at ALL past quarters, NP to SH of RM116mil is effectively the highest ever (two previous quarters had RM121mil and RM124mil profit).

This means Armada is back in business boys. This despite not 100% revenue from Olombendo, zero from Sterling III and very little from Kraken. So there is room to improve by a lot more.

I think no dividend for this year. They need to clear up as much debt as possible and tidy up the balance sheet. Next year onwards, once all their major FPSO projects are stable already, they should be able to pay out some handy dividends. I won't be surprised of dividends of RM0.05/share...imagine if you bought at ~RM0.60...your yield will be amazing.

Let's see how the market reacts after lunch. I'm expecting at least RM0.75!

OMS revenue should be supported till end 2018 based on the Lukoil contract, it's not sensible the recognized most of it by end of Q2 2017, and the contract was signed in Q3 2017 only.

Correction, media release says no supplementary payment for Kraken. To me most important is what is the core net profit. Have to wait for Monday morning for the IBs to tell us that.

Nice, above the expectation of RM100mil. I think since this includes payments for Kraken, core net profit should be higher still at around RM150mil. Not too sure about the taxation as well, seems a lot.

But at the same time we do not know how much of the profit has been boosted by the disposal of assets. It seems like RM15mil came from disposal of assets based on cash flow statements.

Chanyut, I know nothing about buy and sell signals. I buy when there's a promising story, I sell when the story is no longer as promising as it initially was. Very simple really.

I topped up 2 Fridays ago at RM0.685. I would have been an idiot to do so if I thought the quarter is bad. You can scroll up to confirm my past comments.

When did I say that? Please find any proof. I say QR will be better YoY AND QoQ.

I only said the price could have fallen yesterday due to adverse newsflow about Kraken. But if you read within the lines of the Kraken statement, Armada is already earning bareboat charter rates, just not at 100% until everything is commissioned.

Usually out end of day, no? I think quarter core net profits will be around RM80-100mil but reported net profits will be higher due to writeback of provisions for Kraken and sale of one of their Nigerian FPSO and some other assets.

Ask and ye shall receive (RHB report): http://rhb.ap.bdvision.ipreo.com/NSightWeb_v2.00/Handlers/Document.ashx?i=9d0cf7a994ed43eab822e8d72a71a2e0

I can share Maybank report later.

Volume is still very low. For price to jump up appreciably, you need the big fish to come in with big volumes and bid up the price.

I do believe we are at the bottom. With the PRA housekeeping done and two successive quarters of successful turnaround in China, better days lie ahead. Now, we won't ever go back to the glory days of RM10++, not even above RM1 likely. But going to RM0.60 and RM0.70 should be achievable. Parkson Bhd is now trading at a fairly large discount to NAV, even when you take into account a substantial holding company discount and remove goodwill/tangible assets from the equation.

Yeah I think for a long term, fund managers can stomach it. Will probably end the day solidly at RM1.72 and above. Then we go range-bound from RM1.70-RM1.80 for the next quarter (assuming the MYRUSD rate is at 4.25-4.32. Anything above/.below that range will trigger FX-based buying/selling.

Tomorrow some people might push the price up a bit to speculate on the results.

Guys, when I look at the segmental results for Q2 alone, I get these figures:

Particle board:

Rev: 75,765 vs 52,432
PBT: 11,484 vs 6,696 (71.5% growth YoY)

RTA:

Rev: 77,557 vs 69,332
PBT: 6,495 vs 11,241 (42.2% decline YoY!)

So we have particle board segment greatly increasing (most possibly due to the plant shutdown in April 2016), but the RTA segment has greatly fallen.

I think if the stock somehow hits ~RM1.80 in the next one week I will exit for now. Doesn't seem solid enough, unless there is a very good explanation in the sharp fall in PBT and margins for RTA segment.

Now to see this fall below RM1.20...come on!

Usually fund managers will wait for the research reports before they make a decision to buy/sell. So what's important now is that we get some good qualitative analysis in the HLIB/JF Apex reports.

How many outstanding warrants remain and when do they expire? I hope to start seeing comparable EPS growth.

It looks like the RTA segment contributed to the lower margins. Must find out how come. The particleboard segment was resilient.

Ok lah...below expectations. I will hold. Tomorrow maybe some consolidation, I don't know. But the profitability is strong enough to maintain a RM1.65 share price.

Looks like costs really escalated YoY, eat into margins heavily. Net margins are lowest is 2 yrs. But there's a heavy capex spend, possibly for both the RTA factory and the mushroom business. Future looks bright.

Hopefully the banning of rubberwood exports will help to stabilize/reduce costs.

Bad news: https://www.ft.com/content/c59bcce0-87e4-11e7-bf50-e1c239b45787

Be prepared for a fall tomorrow. It seems full start-up/commissioning has hit some issues/delay. I don't think it has any major long-term impact, but short-term, maybe yes.

I will be happy if we go back to RM0.65.

Likely Reuters is correct lah...damn!

Indeed in the past post-results AA drops...but this time there has not been a substantial bullish run and the stock has been mostly trading rangebound at 3.20-3.30 in the past 2 months. If there is going to be volatility, I'd bet it will be in the upwards direction. It's likely Q2 results will surprise us on the upside. Also, bonus of possible AAC announcement finally (this AAC thing has been totally discounted now from the share price as Tony keep on talking, no action).

Walao...so excite!

Lol what expert. It's just a small bump up. I look forward to it falling to 0.65 so that I can swing a fat pitch at it.

So when are Hevea results out? Any idea?

Everything drop, unbilled sales now at critical level of RM132mil (despite launching two new projects with GDV of RM120mil during Q2 2017).

Tambun is a very good company with arguably the lowest cost of land held to GDV ratio of all Bursa Malaysia listed developers...however it has got terrible earnings headwinds for the foreseeable future.

I say hold your horses, wait for deeper value to emerge then buy and hold for the long term. I would wait till we get below RM1.10 (maybe even below RM1) to get in to Tambun given the current situation.

When are results due?

Many institutions hold Evergreen. They can't just sell off on Monday morning. Will take time to reduce their positions.

If you wonder why PHB rising now when PRGL is falling, it's simple. You look back in late May/early June. Look at PHB and PRGL price. PHB shareholders did not believe in the appreciation of the PRGL share price. Now PHB share price is highly depressed...even if we take PRGL to eventually stabilize at HKD1.00. So PHB prepared for a super worst case scenario. I believe there is room for it to now stabilize between RM0.55-0.60.

@Godhand, problem is 20-30% YoY is likely not enough to maintain the stock price above RM1.70. Recall we are coming from a low base last year due to prolonged plant shutdown, which escalated costs and reduced topline production.

@lloydlim, that's a faulty logic. You should be buying cyclicals when the P/E ratio is high and selling them when the P/E ratio is low.

To be fair I've never been this excited for a Q report before. I think the excitement stems from the fact that either it will surprise on the upside (>RM25mil) or downside (<RM20mil). The former will lead to a rally above RM1.80, the latter will cause a fall into the low RM1.60s.

@stockraider, I am not saying management is dishonest at all. You just got to be smart to dissect the financial statements yourself.

I don't care about inventory turnaround times - as long as management is claiming there is shortage of materials + extended plant shutdowns for scheduled maintenance, BUT at the same time there is an inventory build-up...it is never a good sign. Management are not liars or dishonest...they just have no reason to give you all the fine details. As an investor you find this yourself.

Read books by Peter Lynch, Benjamin Graham and Seth Klarman...they all echo that you only start buying into a turnaround when the inventories are being driven down. Now Evergreen has to store so much inventories, yet it still claims there is shortage in production. Doesn't make much economical sense. Storage costs will increase, and worse still if these are old/low-grade inventories they will eventually get written-down.

Evergreen is now officially on my watchlist, but not cheap enough for me to buy in just yet.

What BS, I don't believe this supply issue. Look at their inventories, RM230mil plus, and is increasing over the past few quarters. Revenue is at RM250mil...almost 1:1 ratio with inventory. This DOES NOT make sense if they have a supply issue...inventories should be run down in that circumstances!

Compare to say, Heveaboard. Inventory to revenue ratio is at 0.4:1. Inventory on a declining trend. For them to claim of shortage makes sense...not for Evergreen though. You guys need to be smart in dissecting the balance sheet.

Sure some of their product segment may have been impacted by shortage...but it seems oversupplied across most of their product. Not to mention despite plant shutdown for maintenence they still can have such an inventory buildup while talking about shortage...just plain BS!

Look at their analyst presentation slides. Their unbilled sales are rapidly declining, most of their ongoing projects already reach >90% completion, and there is only RM120mil GDV launched so far this year (plus another RM50mil by year's end). Next year GDV is around RM300mil.

If you add the numbers up, it's very clear that revenue is going to take a massive hit going in to H2 2017 and all the way through 2018.

Tambun might still be a decent long-term buy at these prices, but if you want to go in....don't go all-in one short. Allocate 1/3rd of your capital now, and average down the next 15% fall and the following 20% fall.

The beauty with Tambun is if the management is interested, they just need to buy some nice landbank and that will act as a major catalyst to boost share price by some 20-30% immediately.

Looks like a major fund manager has parked there. Could be EPF, local unit trust company, or a foreign institutional investor.

Also, it could maybe just be smoke and mirrors. I don't know. But the buyer will likely disappear if there is no seller at RM1.20 for that big block of shares.

I kinda regret not jumping in at RM1.18 when I could...but then again no hurry. The news about the Vietnam delay into Q3 FY2018 still has not reached the masses. I imagine once management officially announces it there will be further weakness in the stock. In fact, EPF has started disposing, likely due to the Vietnam delay.

Also, to have confidence that Hevea will not suffer the same fate as Evergreen, look at the inventory size relative to revenue. For Evergreen it is almost 1:1 ratio, which is very bad. Their inventories are rising. Meanwhile Hevea's inventory to revenue ratio is just merely 0.4:1...which is extremely healthy, plus inventories have been on a downward trajectory.

Do not lose hope and faith guys! Just a few days to go...

Evergreen has nothing to do with Hevea. Look at the financial statements. YoY all past 5 quarters in the red for Evergreen. Hevea meanwhile has been going from strength to strength.

Hevea is fully Malaysian, Evergreen is majority Thailand. Hevea particleboard is less than 50% of their top/bottomline (RTA is largest contributor). Hevea has higher value products with superior margins, and relies less on raw labour.

To me it is pointless to compare the two.

Also, Evergreen had plant maintenance. Read the explanations.

Enjoy the moment while it lasts...all that matters now is will local institutions push it higher? It's up to them. Retailers can't do anything ore.

This week is results week. We either see consolidation around RM0.74 - RM0.76, or we see a surge towards RM0.80 - RM0.82 in anticipation of better results. Doubt we go down back to RM0.68 - RM0.70 levels.