The very fact that so many companies want to jump on board the gloves band wagon indicate that the demand will continue to grow for sometime. Cannot be all these companies hire fools to research and decide on such huge invest!!
Chewck631 u r wrong..99% of those co who claimed they want to venture into glove biz r mainly to goreng their share prices..especially those penny stocks..
Choivo Capital, no offence but arguing politely. You should get more experience in stock market before managing others money.. Write this decision in your dairy and look back in 2021 and you will know how inexperience you are in managing your friends and relatives money. Sorry ya.
The Covid19 pandemic. The virus does not care about human sentiment. Why does the gloves have more to run... because there are more humans to infect. Currently 26 million people have been officially infected.... increase that by a factor of 10 to account for people who are asymptomatic... and it is just 260 million people. There are 7800 million people alive and humanity does not have immunity to this virus. Do not look at this like an economic bull run with greater fools, look at this as a pandemic with doctor having to contend with contaminated environment and hospitals that are flooding with Covid19 patients. It is bad in developing nation because they are poor and it is bad in developed nation because hospitals are not build to have excessive spare capacity. There are another 7500 million people more to go.
Vaccine typically take 5-10 years to develop. So saying we have a vaccine in 1 year is as you say expecting 9 pregnant women to give birth to a baby in 1 month. Politicians may say it time to throw a party. CEO will claim it can be done. And scientist will say we will do our best. But really the fastest vaccine ever developed took 4 years (mummps). Ebola vaccine with all modern tech of the last 2010s took 6 years to develop and test (It applied for FDA approval in December 2019).
Finally sure, you maybe willing to use the Swedish model, please consider 2 factors. (1) While the mortality rate of Covid19 is on average ~1%, this is only true if your hospitals are fully functional. 20% of people infected need medical care... as simple as antibiotics to as severe as ICU. When hospitals are pushed to their limit, the mortality rate goes up. Hospitals run of out essentials and common items, drugs, oxygen, even stuff as common as gloves. At its height the mortality rate of Covid19 in Italy was 8%, and people were saying China was hiding the true deaths as it had reported only 3.4% mortality rate.
(2) 1% mortality rate is still 1% of 7800 million people, that means 78 million people dead. More deaths than the 1918 pandemic. More deaths than WW2. In malaysia, it mean 310,000 deaths. Sweden has 20x more deaths than its neighbors. In New York, there were so many dead people, that the crematorium had to run 16 hours a day 6 days a week. Excess bodies had to be buried in mass graves and there were still bodies found rotting in the sun because Covid19 infected bodies could not be processed fast enough.
Just because someone write something against the counter you holds you called him a fool and no in-depth research and tons of non sense. Ever asked your self that the author could be right and you are at the wrong side ? Ever asked yourself the price that you paid was much higher than the value that you get ? If you are saying the gloves companies are cheap because they can hike the ASP forever then who is the greater fool here ? Does TG shall wiorth 80 bil just because you expect that it can make 4 bil annually in the coming 2 years ? Did you ever ask yourself TG shall be valued on par with MBB even though MBB made 6 bil annually for the past 5-6 years. If it is not greater tool to push up the price I don’t know what else. But having said that if doesn’t mean you shall avoid glove counters because you could very well make more money but selling it to others who are willing to pay you higher premium. It is a hefty price that you are going to pay if you are actually speculating while thinking that you are investing in a heart company. Don’t confuse yourself . Just because you bought a fundamentally good company and paying a hue premium for it that is not consider speculating . What will you say if someone bought TG at 50,75 or even 100 isn’t him speculating that the ASP will be higher and higher forever ? This round the market maker is making a killing .
Very simple strategy, buy when there is panic selling. TAKE profit when it hits new high. In between, trade wisely, medium term still very bright for glove companies. Covid-19 is here to stay. So called upcoming companies trying their luck can't survive the competition, they just put up a lot of hypes to unload their shares.
CIMB Research maintain BUY on SUPERMX. - YES, A SCREAMIN BUY CALL, FOLKS-DONT MISS THE BOAT TARGET PRICE = RM13.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------
We still don't know just how long this pandemic will last - will one vaccine emerge that gives the immunity? Or will we have to endure life with the virus for years or decades to come?
No matter how promising early studies or phases are, there's always a chance for the final phase to have one serious adverse effect or not hit a target antibody response, causing all the work to go out the window.
Trial completion will take time, and interim and preliminary data provide mere glimpses of the overarching study. but keep in mind the risks that are associated with pushing vaccines through unprecedented fast timelines, as hope for a vaccine by the winter far exceeds the endpoint timelines of next year and beyond.
''Some are pushing for a vaccine to come out as quickly as possible so that life can 'return to normal.' However, we have to set appropriate expectations. Just because a vaccine comes out doesn't mean you can go back to life as it was before the pandemic."
The new computational model finds that a COVID-19 vaccine will have to be at least 80 percent effective to achieve a complete "return to normal"
We still don't know just how long this pandemic will last - will one vaccine emerge that gives the immunity? Or will we have to endure life with the virus for years or decades to come?
No matter how promising early studies or phases are, there's always a chance for the final phase to have one serious adverse effect or not hit a target antibody response, causing all the work to go out the window.
Trial completion will take time, and interim and preliminary data provide mere glimpses of the overarching study. but keep in mind the risks that are associated with pushing vaccines through unprecedented fast timelines, as hope for a vaccine by the winter far exceeds the endpoint timelines of next year and beyond.
''Some are pushing for a vaccine to come out as quickly as possible so that life can 'return to normal.' However, we have to set appropriate expectations. Just because a vaccine comes out doesn't mean you can go back to life as it was before the pandemic."
The new computational model finds that a COVID-19 vaccine will have to be at least 80 percent effective to achieve a complete "return to normal"
Half past 6 article you didnt buy because you missed the boat, if you cant adapt, then buy others like XOX, M3Tech, Lambo. Choivo aim supermax but no aim tan sri counter ? scared your theory wont work with TG is it ?
This common sense article, chicken seller uncle also know how to blow water
"I expect supply to normalize in 3-6 months from now, before it goes into an oversupply situation, and prices plummet." -- wrong analysis.
The actual fact is: Cumulative deaths expected by January 1 total 2.8 million, about 1.9 million more from now until the end of the year. Daily deaths in December could reach as high as 30,000.
Twindemic is coming, the whole year of 2021 vaccine is just 杯水车薪,小水无法救大火
You can write very well my brother. To me, you sound like a geek more than an investor. Meet more people, learn from others who are more experienced than you. The more you know, you'd realize the less you know. Good luck with your fund!
HERE WE GO AGAIN - WHEN CLOWNS MISS THE BOAT THEY TEND TO BE JEALOUS & BITTER AND END UP WIRTING RUBBISH. THEY JUST COULDNT BELIEVE THEY MISSED AN OPPORTUNITY OF A LIFETIME.
SUPERMAX HAS SOLID FUNDAMENTALS , EXCELLENT BUSINESS MODEL- OBM & ODN, GOOD EARNINGS ( FOR THE NEXT 4 QUARTERS) WITH 1.1 B IN PREPAYMENTS , A LEAD TIME OF 600 DAYS AND A PROJECTED PAT OF 680 MILLION FOR THE NEXT QUARTER.
MOST SCIENTIST BELIEVE THAT WE HAVE TO LIVE WITH THIS PANDEMIC FOR A LONG TIME AS AN EFFECTIVE VACCINE MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE - DUE TO MUTATIONS & REINFECTIONS. HENCE LONG TERM OUTLOOK FOR GLOVES ARE BRIGHT.
SUCH HALF BAKED NARRATIVES AND NONSENSICAL COMPARISONS WITH TULIPS & SARDINES REFLECTS HIS INABILITY IDENTIFY A MULTI BAGGER. YUP, A SORE LOSER.
CHOIVO, ITS STILL NOT TOO LATE TO GET ON BOARD AS SUPER IS FAIRLY VALUED AT RM15-18.
the greater fool theory is sound but only when exuberance mania is everywhere. of course u cannot predict it but i would think only next year would the party end. i believe when u see major sh starts selling then u will know. especially from supermax n top glove owners. they will surely dispose some no?
according to many news sources i think the party will only end by end of next year. with oversupply, competition from locals, china etc. asp prices tapering out. lesser profit growth etc.
WHO says widespread coronavirus vaccinations are not expected until mid 2021
The organization is stressing the importance of rigorous checks on their effectiveness and safety.
NONE of the candidate vaccines in advanced clinical trials so far has demonstrated a “clear signal” of efficacy at the level of at least 50% sought by the WHO, spokeswoman Margaret Harris said.
Actually it is quite simple, when Supermx/Top Glove next quarter exceed the research houses' consensus with double digits, and ASPs still has no sign of peaking in Nov or Dec, share price will move up (moratorium issue is temporary knee jerk).
Choivo, I think you missed an important point that there may be a worldwide conspiracy led by the mainstream media to heighten the fear of Covid-19 in order to destroy the world economies. CDC just admitted that in US, actual deaths from Covid-19 were only about 6% of the total announced earlier. The other 94% deaths had on average 2.6 additional causes, such as cancer, heart and lung diseases, etc. Cases of people of having died from car accidents with Covid-19, were reported dead from the disease. CDC has also bluntly stated that there have been more deaths from suicides and drug overdoses than from Covid-19. These falsified reports in the US have very much to do with the US Elections in November. Cheers!
Almost Everyone agree the party will end some time next year right? Look around !!!! Maybe people r starting to leave. Don’t be the last to leave oh.......... the last few to leave will have to clean out your account!
General Precautions Persons administering vaccinations should follow appropriate precautions to minimize risk for disease exposure and spread. Hands should be cleansed with an alcohol-based waterless antiseptic hand rub or washed with soap and water before preparing vaccines for administration and between each patient contact (1). Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) regulations do not require gloves to be worn when administering vaccinations, unless persons administering vaccinations have open lesions on their hands or are likely to come into contact with a patient’s body fluids (2). If worn, gloves should be changed between patients.
Distribution Phase my friends. It will sideline and once awhile spike up to attract more fish then after 6 month it will start drop until normal. Sometimes may take years. Not much flesh now only bone if you want.
Even when WHO's prediction of mass vaccination starts in mid 2021 comes true, it is only a beginning phase because it can take years to produce ample vaccines for the world populations.
The world economy will only start the real recovery journey when efficacious vaccines are available beyond 2021.
And to declare the Covid-19 pandemic is over, it could be another few years after 2021. In fact, WHO has predicted earlier that this pandemic would only be declared over most probably in 2025.
Then only the glove demand and supply will reach an equilibrium. However, the post covid-19 ASP for the big 4 will remain high and stable, due to the structural shift in demand and the new normal caused by this once in a century pandemic.
So from now till 2021/2022, we have a golden chance to witness the explosive PATs by the big 4 in the coming qtrs, and this is also once in a century, may be.
1. HY is a trap (or collateral damage, it was never the intend of the owner to make money from goreng?), the owner from China make up the numbers, get loan, and reporting bad numbers even since. Evidence by top directors + CEO resigned (immediately after something goes wrong). JAKS (in JAKS, the owner never say they can make so much money, only KYY+ talk about their ambition), SENDAI got net cash?
Bear in mind i said similar thing about HY even before the rise. I hate to earn dirty money like that.
2. I think you are making a mistake without study in depth on the company, the technology, the pandemic, etc (or maybe you did? kindly share your insight). We may defer in opinion/conclusion but at least you study on the company first. I mean, don't talk about sentiment only, in the longer term, its always about the company.
3. Nobody knows about the future, who knows if somebody crash a plane into it tomorrow. However, based on available information, Supermax will do superbly over the next 12 months at least, it is equally risky to invest in the recovery.
4. Even after this pandemic, other disease may come. This is not a one-off event, the transmission is just amazingly fast, and therapy is so difficult. In the future, to prevent such event from happening, worldwide precautionary measure is pushing the glove industry to grow superfast year after year.
You know? China always has weird diseases, swine fever, h5n1 and we Malaysia as a country (and the rest of the world), never allow to import any livestock or uncook meat etc from China, because they will always have outbreak, forever. Only this time this pandemic is so strong due to its manmade nature. They may make more because it looks like they are winning the war.
1. Supermax will have superb results there is no doubt about it. However... does the results match the euphoria and forward looking investments dollars to put into it moving forward? Can supermax next quarter reach 800 million? next quarter after that 1600 million? how about next quarter after that? Yes, one may not know the future, but paying the price today assuming that every year will be covid-19 year is not rational.
2. study or not, one thing is for sure: either you believe there will be a vaccine, or you believe that there will not be a cure. The probabilities of a vaccine coming out is far more likely than not, considering the entire world is rushing to produce a vaccine. The question to ask is simple: if no covid, how much will be the glove demand moving forward? If covid continues to exist... well.. different story.
3. Yes, other diseases will come, but that is not the question to ask. The question to ask is moving forward, by 2021 and on, how much more glove capacity will exist in the world? As supply will undoubtedly overload demand, how much will the price change versus supply? It is silly to assume that no one else has the capacity to produce gloves, and moving forward at such great margins, no one else will want to join in the game.
Philip, there is a big problem in your assumption. If you think Supermax double its profit every quarter, then in a year it will be 16 times growth, one way to value it will be 1600 times PE. That will be roughly RM1000.00 Per share. If you do a DDM, NPV, etc whatever 201 stuff you will get "infinity" as an answer.
I am quite sure nobody think Supermax worth RM1000, yet.
Supermax only need RM800m next QR, then slowly towards RM1b profit. At 20 times PE, assuming 4b net profit per annum, that will be 80b market cap. That will make Supermax worth slightly more than RM30.
(At RM2 a share, if Supermax make 4b profit, that would be PE of 1.4?? Possible, but not probable. )
Choivo, I got Supermax and glove fairly early too. What i mean is to advice you to do the calculation just as you did with Airasia. Don't jump into conclusion without working it through.
Let the numbers speak. Kossan, Harta still talking about USD30-40 ASP, Supermax is aiming USD280 now. Kneel to figures.
Remember bitcoin? Monopoly money can worth USD30k.
My guess is a half year pandemic will consume 2 years production of glove. It looks like it will go on for another 9 months at least, that will create excess demand for another 4 years at least.
-so your opinion would be long term holders are idiots? the greatest fools too? :p -you use 'supermax/glove companies'... so your article also meant Top Glove too? :)
lastly.... i think in life there's 3 situation.... 1)you fall in love, you chase and you succeed.... 2)you fall in love, you chase and failed.... 3)you stand by the side wondering if the girl is perfect before you decide to go after, but then the girl left.....
jon, i am not guru or sifu, neither am i a multi-millionaire... but i can tell you this - please, please.... don't always choose 3
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
chewck631
23 posts
Posted by chewck631 > 2020-09-06 09:39 | Report Abuse
The very fact that so many companies want to jump on board the gloves band wagon indicate that the demand will continue to grow for sometime. Cannot be all these companies hire fools to research and decide on such huge invest!!