I expect to under-perform the index in bull years, and beat it in normal or bear years.
Though tbh, malaysia index is kind of rubbish, so i expect to beat it during bull year.
Over a 20 year period, i expect to beat the index very comfortably. And value investing is the only one that can provide that consistently.
Having said that, if OTB make 100% in bull, you make 50% and i make 20%, with the index say 15%.
I'll be extremely happy. They are worse things in life than to make a little less profit than the other person. 20% or 15% is still huge.
You say my conservatism is the bad part. Globally, in order to be the top 1%, you need USD32,400 in income. Im pretty close for this one.
And a net worth of USD770k, or about RM3.2m. I expect to hit this figure in 15 years if i compound at 10%, with savings per annum rising at 3% (this is very conservative as i'm very good at what i do, and i work damn bloody hard).
Personally, i expect to be hit the top 1% in the world by my mid thirties or less than 10 years.
And i intend to keep that whealth. Instead of the many retail participants here who have their horror story of how they become very rich and lost in all in their thirties.
At my own age cohort, i'm fairly certain my networth is top 1-5% in malaysia.
in any event, when you have enough money, its just a number on a screen and high score. Im not one to risk what i need for what i want haha.
My method suits me, because of my temperament and how i think. I buy more when prices go down, if i'm a trader, i will die. And i sell when it goes above fair value.
Some money, not for me to earn.
===== Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 5, 2019 06:11 AM | Report Abuse
Yes. Jon will very likely underperform in bull and in normal market
That is the weak link of his investing model
Which is why I until now is still not convinced that it is suitable for him
I wont be preparing a speech. i expect to just wing it. Just go there and start talking, more fun this way.
in any event, i dont think i am in a position to be giving advice at my age, when the audience are all much older than me. I may have studied it abit deeper than most on this topic, but, a person in their fifties or sixties have lived alot more.
Like they say, they've eaten more salt than i have eaten rice.
I'll probably just share my experience, talk a little on how i think, and take questions.
Dear Jon Choivo, Glad to hear that you will be giving a speech at the i3 blogger forum. I too was invited to be one of the speakers and was given a slot of 25 minutes to present my paper. My presentation title: Love triangle (FA-BS-TA). Intrinsic value INSAS: refer below link. https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/189654.jsp
And received one critical review comment from Ricky Yeo: The value of a business is the expected future cash flow. That's it. You don't go alter the concept and add NTA into the entire valuation. This is how people mess up investing. Now your whole valuation is wrong.
Where is that guy that adds all the lands of Hengyuan into the future earnings and value HY at $90 per share. 10/01/2019 20:24
I response: Dear Ricky Yeo, Do not understand what you mean as I do not add in NTA. I only look into Non-current asset and break it down to those at end of life span equal to zero. And those subsidiary/buildings generating DCF in term of (dividend /rent growing at rate 4% and discount rate at 4%) and for land the PV=current price x (1+a)^N/(1+d)^N and assuming that appreciation rate is equal discount rate then Land do not appreciate nor depreciated maintain same Present value with no DCF generated.
For current asset – total liabilities. These excess cash or cash equivalent is then use to generate DCF (certain % earning with growth of 4 % and discount rate of 4%) with present value discounted at 4 % I use duration of 10 year for INSAS. Please pinpoint what wrong with this calculation.
Thank you 10/01/2019 20:52
I receive no further comment from Ricky Yeo. So can you help me as I use intrinsic value of INSAS base on DCF of Sum (assets + future earnings) what does Ricky Yeo mean by “You don't go alter the concept and add NTA into the entire valuation.”
See you at the i3 blogger forum
Thank you P/S: I just goggled, Fundamental analysis and put my thought into paper on the above article. I will send the article to newly appointed INSAS CEO Dato’ Wong for his comment on coming Monday.
furthermore...imagine, having bought low enough and eventually the shares go above water....then how? sell at various stages of recovery ...then what happens? The game don't end there.......
Or like Tan Ten Boo, makes some money in early years.....and miss the market for the subsequent 10 years.
I have seen a lot of successful stock market people...but none of them Quote here quote there....they all have their ways.......but can succeed in a meaningful way if carry 20 or more stocks? I have never seen one before........
no need quote here quote there.....some people got very good sense of timing......they managed to avoid all the big drops....a few rounds of that.....they emerge a big winner......why? because these people got very focused portfolios and managed to sell right......
I wonder if, "adaptable, open minded and flexible" is synonym for "No real philosophy" beyond whatever potentially spurious correlations at that point in time.
==== Icon8888 surprisingly, the most adaptable, open minded and flexible old timers in i3 are two old men
one is qqq3, the other is icon8888
most of the others don't dare to walk out of the room without their warren buffalo book in hand 28/01/2019 10:00
so from 1 jan to now...your Timecom went from 5% to 59% to 17% .....portfolio turnover even faster than mine......then what is the use of the all quote here quote there?
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MQ Trader 8023 views | 7 d ago
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New IPO: The largest mini-market player and a leading groceries retailer in Malaysia, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings Bhd aims to list on the Main Market!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
probability
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Posted by probability > 2019-01-12 14:32 | Report Abuse
aiya...dont say like that...continue challenge everyone...only then we all can benefit...
your SOP and hibi will do very well...likely top 5 winner of 2019..
post i3 blogger forum presentation here...i want listen how you speak also...