Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-04 17:48 | Report Abuse

Lol, if i teach, ill only do one on one.

RM5k, for 1 and a half hour a month for a year. And me replying your whatsapp now and then. Hahaha

But i'll only do so, once i finish writing my free "Learn investing the hard way" articles, Which knowing me and my lohsoh-ness, will probably end up 300,000 words or more.

Hahahaha

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 17:48 | Report Abuse

probability > Jan 4, 2019 05:08 PM | Report Abuse

its almost impossible to have both in your favor...predictability & bargain
=========

agree....nevertheless the when more important than the how.....go trade like me......hahahahaha

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-01-04 17:49 | Report Abuse

Raja,

I think 胡立阳 make much more money from writing books n giving seminars than investing/ trading in stock

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-04 17:52 | Report Abuse

in my opinion, you make a mistake by setting up this fund management toy for your relatives and friends

you structure the fund's remuneration system in such a way that you need to focus on capital preservation.

In a certain way, it restrains (at first I was thinking of saying retard, but better not) your intellectual development for investing

there is a big world out there. Better keep your mind open. Explore first before firming up your model prematurely

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-04 18:01 | Report Abuse

Icon,

I have more than 100% of my networth in stocks. I'm not going to count my private stakes, even thought i think one of them should be quite valuable.

I don't diversify as i think equities is the best asset class. Property? Let someone buy it, i don't want.

Even if it was my own money only, i'm very conservative. I used to do a decision tree, economic utility analysis, on whether i should buy an extra egg during lunch or not when i was younger.

Will the extra egg for RM1, provide enough pleasure to warrant the RM1, compared to the other ways i can spend the money.

Again, i don't avoid paper loss, as i've shown many times, i avoid permanent loss of capital.

I would buy PetronM today, and be happy if it falls to RM3 next month.

You are right, i focus alot more on not losing money than making money.

The focus of most investors differs from that of value investors. Most investors are primarily oriented toward return, how much they can make and pay little attention to risk, how much they can lose.

Respectfully, i think your sheer focus on following the smell of money only, also restrains your intellectual development when it comes to investing.

When i read your articles today, and those 2 years ago, i can't see a greater depth in how you think etc.

To be fair, its a decently high bar.

=====
Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 4, 2019 05:47 PM | Report Abuse

you make a mistake by setting this fund management toy for your relatives and friends

because of the need to preserve capital and avoid paper loss, you box yourself into a corner by avoiding all the sexy girls and only stick with the lady book worms

it restrains (at first I was thinking of saying retard, but better not) your intellectual development

Posted by lching > 2019-01-04 18:35 | Report Abuse

Warren Buffet could be dead wrong. you go figure out how much he lost by buying APPLE at the highest price last year. i don't think he can recover the sum in the coming years.

Posted by probability > 2019-01-04 18:44 | Report Abuse

if you see the fatal error is because apple is losing its competitive advantage now...

all of WB analysis works well earlier as most of the stock with growth potential in U.S had its MOAT....the resilient competitive edge...

when you take that out from the equation...all assumptions breaks down..


Posted by lching > Jan 4, 2019 06:35 PM | Report Abuse

Warren Buffet could be dead wrong. you go figure out how much he lost by buying APPLE at the highest price last year. i don't think he can recover the sum in the coming years.

Posted by Lanesra > 2019-01-04 18:51 | Report Abuse

Choivo capital, probably you have a very good holding power. nowadays milenials and youngster invest in the stock market thinking to make fast bucks. they take up personal loans and burn it all thru contra. but I do agree with you, I too is not afraid of paper loss but instead of permanent capital loss. Btw Malaysia market is really very very small, I am trying to learn about the US and HK market and trust me , the world is really really big out there .

Warren buffet, Peter Lynch, Philip fisher or whoever la. we can read and listen but it is our own judgement and research that matters in the end.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-04 19:30 | Report Abuse

hi Jon, if you need a decision tree to eat an egg, that means your character is naturally cautious. Then better stick to what you are comfortable with, ignore what I said.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-04 20:04 | Report Abuse

Correct, WB made alot mistakes. I can both hand also not enough to count. Even the purchase of the initial berkshire hathaway was a mistake.

Having said that, this was the man who turned USD17 to USD290,000, And have a 17% for 50 year track record. His initial 20 years was almost 30% per annum.

His success, far far exceed his failures.

So we have that. Having said that, at his price, apple is pretty good. And given the markets now, everyone would wish they are WB with USD100b to put to work.

I wont be surprised if he bought USD50b worth of apple in the last 3 months.


===
lching Warren Buffet could be dead wrong. you go figure out how much he lost by buying APPLE at the highest price last year. i don't think he can recover the sum in the coming years.
04/01/2019 18:35

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-04 20:06 | Report Abuse

Haha im at a point, where the pleasure of eating an egg is more than RM1 now, but not by much! I'm still very kiam when i think its not worth it, even if its 50 sen. Hahaha. To a fault probably.

I am still very careful with money. But i'd like to think its a calculated care, and when i should put alot of money down, i will.

Its one thing to be cautious, and another to be cautious to a fault.

Good luck with your currymee.


===
Icon8888 hi Jon, if you need a decision tree to eat an egg, that means your character is naturally cautious. Then better stick to what you are comfortable with, ignore what I said.
04/01/2019 19:30

Posted by i3Value > 2019-01-05 01:01 | Report Abuse

So obvious after Icon use Jonathan Choi Yi Kit photo as profile picture, Jonathan Choi Yi Kit reply to Icon in better manners. Choice of words also maybe think twice. Tone in writing also give face.

Jonathan Choi Yi Kit, why dare not sarcastic Icon anymore? Why no more condemn and whacking? Scared?

Posted by i3Value > 2019-01-05 01:03 | Report Abuse

Icon seem like dig out many Jonathan Choi Yi Kit info. Not surprising since Icon always kena personal attack by Jonathan Choi Yi Kit

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-01-05 05:25 | Report Abuse

Posted by i3Value > Jan 5, 2019 01:01 AM | Report Abuse

So obvious after Icon use Jonathan Choi Yi Kit photo as profile picture, Jonathan Choi Yi Kit reply to Icon in better manners.

Wonder who the heck was in the photo......lol

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-01-05 05:33 | Report Abuse

Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 4, 2019 05:52 PM | Report Abuse

in my opinion, you make a mistake by setting up this fund management toy for your relatives and friends

you structure the fund's remuneration system in such a way that you need to focus on capital preservation.


The very objective of Jon's funds is to play safe (so that he need not break his piggy banks) n to make some small money from his family/friends/investors' cheap financing (4.5%)

When mkt is good his funds's return is not too good and when mkt is bad his funds is not too bad...

It's oredi being proven in 2017 n 2018....U will see so in 2019

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-01-05 06:03 | Report Abuse

Alternately, u can put all their money into one of the public mutual funds which invested heavily in PBB n LBI Cap etc with 10 years average track records of 6% to 7%....I see many of them when PB Mutual agent was
showing their charts (vs EPF Div) trying to convince me to use my EPF money to invest in their funds

U may consider my reply to the agent as well....which is "if that's the case why dont i buy PB Bank n LBI Cap directly io investing in yr funds, which are also investing heavily in both co?"

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-05 06:11 | Report Abuse

Yes. Jon will very likely underperform in bull and in normal market

That is the weak link of his investing model

Which is why I until now is still not convinced that it is suitable for him

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-01-05 06:11 | Report Abuse

I heard OTB has created many millionaires in the past few years...

i knew PBB has created many millionaires for the past many years..

but so far i have yet to hear who made millions RM from our local unit trusts..ICAP also perform so so though TTB made good money from FD for himself

(ASB not included..ASB did give very good return during 1980+-1990+..even now also not bad lah 7%+)

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-05 06:12 | Report Abuse

Not to say that jon's investment method is wrong. It is just not very suitable for him

Jon is too young, capital too small

He can't afford to invest too conservatively

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-01-05 06:13 | Report Abuse

Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 5, 2019 06:11 AM | Report Abuse

Yes. Jon will very likely underperform in bull and in normal market

That is the weak link of his investing model

Which is why I until now is still not convinced that it is suitable for him


Ah Jon only want to make safe money from his cheap financing (4.5%)..he tried to use I3 to attract more cheap financing in future

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-01-05 06:14 | Report Abuse

It's his biz model.....I would say his biz model is right....

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-01-05 06:15 | Report Abuse

But he can hardly succeed in I3

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-05 06:18 | Report Abuse

Equity is risky. In such an environment, offenses could be the best Defence. When time is good, you should grow yourself big such that when bad time comes, you have plenty of fat to protect your original capital

At least at the early stage of a lifelong wealth accumulation, that should be the way

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-05 06:21 | Report Abuse

After you have grown big (at least few millions, sufficient for retirement), you can consider switching to the conservative approach like Jon doing now

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-05 06:23 | Report Abuse

"Low risk" is a tricky concept

Those that don't take financial risk at young age will find themselves facing high financial risk when they are old

The effective way to eliminate risk is to grow yourself out of it, not by avoiding it from the very very early stage

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-05 06:33 | Report Abuse

I am not saying that you should unnecessarily take on high risk for the sake of achieving high return. That is gambling mentality already

What I am saying is that jon's attitude of indifference towards huge capital gain is unhealthy

He should more proactively pursue it

Posted by godhand > 2019-01-05 10:50 | Report Abuse

Icon8888 Yes. Jon will very likely underperform in bull and in normal market

That is the weak link of his investing model

Which is why I until now is still not convinced that it is suitable for him
05/01/2019 06:11

As long as his cagr can beat the inflation of 4-5%, he will be growing his networth in value.
say he make 15% every year for 9 years in bull market. loss 15% in bear market. his cagr will be 12% . with capital of 100k u will get arnd 300k. in 28 years bull market 2 years bear market, u will get arnd 5 millions.
The most important factor is never to lose money in investing

what icon say is true, work on your capital first. however i have other perspective. dont gamble in your investment. u can risk in your business work on your earning power. say if your yearly income is 50k make it 500k first or 1million per year. then only focus on investment.

Posted by godhand > 2019-01-05 10:53 | Report Abuse

Reason is simple. If I have 10million. and i get average 12% cagr in 30 years i will have 500million.

Posted by i3Value > 2019-01-05 12:40 | Report Abuse

godhand, if only that is how stock market work in real life. Earn a bit every year, compound and get rich.

Everyone who buy mutual trust will be millionaires. All analysts will be millionaires. But are they? Answer is NO

Posted by godhand > 2019-01-05 12:55 | Report Abuse

Example only okay

Posted by godhand > 2019-01-05 12:57 | Report Abuse

Typo it’s 3 bear years

Posted by tm9999 > 2019-01-06 21:20 | Report Abuse

Jon got add hb in real portfolio? Or just for i3 competition.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-07 11:00 | Report Abuse

got, but much smaller position.

Posted by probability > 2019-01-11 17:37 | Report Abuse

what happen to Jon? ever since Icon stole his image...he became very silent

Posted by i3Value > 2019-01-11 17:40 | Report Abuse

Hip hip hooray, Icon!

Negative side is everytime i see Icon post, i see the very annoying face.

----------

Posted by probability > Jan 11, 2019 05:37 PM | Report Abuse

what happen to Jon? ever since Icon stole his image...he became very silent

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-12 14:27 | Report Abuse

Probability,

Busy these days. Lets not make conjectures where none exist.

I'm fine with icon using my picture, if it brings him luck, All the better. Talk about free marketing!

Probably posting a new article on sunday, and i'm working on my "Learn Investing the Hard Way" posts, which will likely take up alot of time.

To be honest, i dont see much value in replying to people here. As most comments are rubbish and zero value add. My latest investors all came to me via direct email. They don't have i3 accounts, and merely happened to have read them.

My time is probably better spent on my dayjob, the fund, side business, and my various other hobbies (picked up poker recently)

Good luck with this year, i think this year is going to be great for everyone, but not for me, since rising prices are the enemy of a long term buyer of equities.

having said that, ill be giving a speech at the i3 blogger forum. See you there.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-12 14:29 | Report Abuse

Icon,

If you want a clearer and newer picture. Let me know!

i'll wear a lion hat for you. Hahaha

Posted by probability > 2019-01-12 14:32 | Report Abuse

aiya...dont say like that...continue challenge everyone...only then we all can benefit...

your SOP and hibi will do very well...likely top 5 winner of 2019..

post i3 blogger forum presentation here...i want listen how you speak also...

Posted by Outliar > 2019-01-12 14:37 | Report Abuse

When is the I3 blogger forum? Is it open to the public?

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-12 14:48 | Report Abuse

Icon,

I expect to under-perform the index in bull years, and beat it in normal or bear years.

Though tbh, malaysia index is kind of rubbish, so i expect to beat it during bull year.

Over a 20 year period, i expect to beat the index very comfortably. And value investing is the only one that can provide that consistently.

Having said that, if OTB make 100% in bull, you make 50% and i make 20%, with the index say 15%.

I'll be extremely happy. They are worse things in life than to make a little less profit than the other person. 20% or 15% is still huge.

You say my conservatism is the bad part. Globally, in order to be the top 1%, you need USD32,400 in income. Im pretty close for this one.

And a net worth of USD770k, or about RM3.2m. I expect to hit this figure in 15 years if i compound at 10%, with savings per annum rising at 3% (this is very conservative as i'm very good at what i do, and i work damn bloody hard).

Personally, i expect to be hit the top 1% in the world by my mid thirties or less than 10 years.

And i intend to keep that whealth. Instead of the many retail participants here who have their horror story of how they become very rich and lost in all in their thirties.

At my own age cohort, i'm fairly certain my networth is top 1-5% in malaysia.

in any event, when you have enough money, its just a number on a screen and high score. Im not one to risk what i need for what i want haha.

My method suits me, because of my temperament and how i think. I buy more when prices go down, if i'm a trader, i will die. And i sell when it goes above fair value.

Some money, not for me to earn.

=====
Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 5, 2019 06:11 AM | Report Abuse

Yes. Jon will very likely underperform in bull and in normal market

That is the weak link of his investing model

Which is why I until now is still not convinced that it is suitable for him

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-12 14:52 | Report Abuse

probability,

I wont be preparing a speech. i expect to just wing it. Just go there and start talking, more fun this way.

in any event, i dont think i am in a position to be giving advice at my age, when the audience are all much older than me. I may have studied it abit deeper than most on this topic, but, a person in their fifties or sixties have lived alot more.

Like they say, they've eaten more salt than i have eaten rice.

I'll probably just share my experience, talk a little on how i think, and take questions.

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-01-12 15:14 | Report Abuse

Dont hv to bother abt i3Value's remark...u looks ok to me..

One day if i want to change my fengsui i may hv to borrow yr photo too...TIA

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-12 15:18 | Report Abuse

Haha thanks CharlesT.

This year i decided to ignore all low value add individuals and i'm quite happy to find myself perfectly ease doing so.

When the phone don't ring, you know its me. Hahaha

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-01-12 15:23 | Report Abuse

Luckily i m not that low value to u...

Posted by Sslee > 2019-01-12 15:31 | Report Abuse

Dear Jon Choivo,
Glad to hear that you will be giving a speech at the i3 blogger forum. I too was invited to be one of the speakers and was given a slot of 25 minutes to present my paper. My presentation title:
Love triangle (FA-BS-TA). Intrinsic value INSAS: refer below link.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/189654.jsp

And received one critical review comment from Ricky Yeo: The value of a business is the expected future cash flow. That's it. You don't go alter the concept and add NTA into the entire valuation. This is how people mess up investing. Now your whole valuation is wrong.

Where is that guy that adds all the lands of Hengyuan into the future earnings and value HY at $90 per share.
10/01/2019 20:24

I response: Dear Ricky Yeo,
Do not understand what you mean as I do not add in NTA. I only look into Non-current asset and break it down to those at end of life span equal to zero. And those subsidiary/buildings generating DCF in term of (dividend /rent growing at rate 4% and discount rate at 4%) and for land the PV=current price x (1+a)^N/(1+d)^N and assuming that appreciation rate is equal discount rate then Land do not appreciate nor depreciated maintain same Present value with no DCF generated.

For current asset – total liabilities. These excess cash or cash equivalent is then use to generate DCF (certain % earning with growth of 4 % and discount rate of 4%) with present value discounted at 4 %
I use duration of 10 year for INSAS.
Please pinpoint what wrong with this calculation.

Thank you
10/01/2019 20:52

I receive no further comment from Ricky Yeo. So can you help me as I use intrinsic value of INSAS base on DCF of Sum (assets + future earnings) what does Ricky Yeo mean by “You don't go alter the concept and add NTA into the entire valuation.”

See you at the i3 blogger forum

Thank you
P/S: I just goggled, Fundamental analysis and put my thought into paper on the above article. I will send the article to newly appointed INSAS CEO Dato’ Wong for his comment on coming Monday.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-12 15:51 | Report Abuse

sslee

Insas CEO not going to give u some Insas shares.....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-12 15:52 | Report Abuse

to analyse Insas start by analyzing its revenue account....what can they do?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-12 15:53 | Report Abuse

the market is right to conclude, 10 years from today...stilll the same company, still the same price.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-12 15:57 | Report Abuse

Strange boy....


Choivo Capital
2635 posts
Posted by Choivo Capital > Jan 12, 2019 02:48 PM | Report Abuse

Icon,

I expect to under-perform the index in bull years, and beat it in normal or bear years.

Though tbh, malaysia index is kind of rubbish, so i expect to beat it during bull year.

Over a 20 year period, i expect to beat the index very comfortably. And value investing is the only one that can provide that consistently.

Having said that, if OTB make 100% in bull, you make 50% and i make 20%, with the index say 15%.

I'll be extremely happy. They are worse things in life than to make a little less profit than the

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-12 15:57 | Report Abuse

10 years from today....NTA may be $ 3 , may be $ 2.....no difference...price will still be $ 1.00 to 60 sen.

NAV is already substantially above $ 3....

why? market is right or market is wrong?

to me , market has valued it just right.......