Posted by gohchinlim > 2014-01-26 08:03 | Report Abuse

Market going to plunge soon, especually this year end, and if interest hike next yeat, whole market will be crushed, can jtiasa will not be affected in this round turmoil? I doubt, nevertheless, i am convinced jtiasa is a potential share, just the timing when to accumulate it

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-01-26 08:35 | Report Abuse

Tan KW : Ha ! we are asking the same question. While you asked Mr Koon, I asked Mr KC.
I doubt if Mr Koon can read Chinese, I guess he was english educated. Thks.

Posted by Koon Yew Yin > 2014-01-26 09:15 | Report Abuse

If you look at Fimacorp 2010 annual report, you would see that my family owned 15 million shares when I bought them at Rm 2.20 and sold all after 18 months when it went above Rm 6.40 and made Rm 60 million. I am just joking.

As I said many a time, there are many stock selection criteria such as P/E ratio, NTA, price over book value, cash rich with millions in fix deposit etc. I consider the most vitally important criterion is good profit growth prospect. This is the key to my success in share investment because any share without this quality, its price will not go up. I will never buy any share if I am not sure that the company can make more and more profit in the next few years.

Fimacorp's EPS for 2008,2009, 2010, 2011, were 38 sen, 74sen, 79sen and 99sen. From 2011 its EPS has been reducing and it has no good profit growth prospect. That is why its share price has been flat since 2011 in spite of its huge Rm 225 million cash in fix deposit equivalent to about Rm 2.80 per share as shown in its account ending Sept 2013.

You must bear in mind that keeping too much cash is a bad sign. It simply means that the company cannot find new investment to make more money than the fix deposit rate of about 3% PA.

Fimacorp is a classic example to demonstrate my investment philosophy "Never buy any share if you are not sure it has good profit growth prospect"

Regarding gohchinlim's fear of market crush, I cannot tell if market will crash or not in the near future. This is an inherent risk in share investment. However, if you look at the price chart of JT even if the market crash, I believe it will drop relatively less than many other shares.

Posted by Ek Tan > 2014-01-26 10:23 | Report Abuse

Hi Mr Koon, Good Morning and thanks for sharing a Jtiasa profit growth potential with us. I just gone thru the Jtiasa 2013 annual report and found that the CPO/FFB production growth rapidly in past few year but I'm curious why Jtiasa making loss in last financial year despite CPO price is hovering at 2200-2400 level last year? Besides, the weight average age of mature tree is about 5.6 year.... Is that something to do with efficiency? What if the efficiency is not improving? As I know, it will be more challenging to manage bigger estate size and how Jtiasa can turn around this situation?

Posted by sklyte > 2014-01-26 10:26 | Report Abuse

Mr Koon,
What was your reasons for selecting Tradewind Plantations last time? Was it growth prospect or undervalued stock? From your past postings you are really good on picking plantation counters. Let us know when you have another. Thanks.

Posted by Ek Tan > 2014-01-26 10:29 | Report Abuse

If I were to compare with Fimacorp which making good profit last year with average tree age with 7.6 year, It is very difficult to convince me to put bet on Jtiasa if I'm not sure how the oil palm production growth can benefit us as a share holder. Shall i wait and monitor next few month of quarterly result before invest into it?

Posted by rlch > 2014-01-26 10:33 | Report Abuse

Will only look into JTiasa maybe late 2014 or even 2015 if financial result really improve. So far 2013 number is not convincing enough.

Posted by sklyte > 2014-01-26 10:36 | Report Abuse

By the way Mr Koon, you are sifu and expert from the construction industry I don't see any construction co recommendation from you. Co like Ptaras and Kimlun orMrcb are these good for investment? Thanks.

Posted by lmenwe > 2014-01-26 13:02 | Report Abuse

My comment is the cash and profit margin is good and the business is monopoly (for printing). Of course this is a deeply discount counter and a rerating or privatization is justifiable. However it is lack of growth. It still can serve as a high yield defensive counter but for those seeking for huge capital gain forget about it. They are not utilizing their warchest to make acquisition for the last few years! Indonesia's land are so cheap! If the management are really ambitious they should acquire more than 100k ha of land up to date.

Posted by khhoo > 2014-01-26 13:02 | Report Abuse

红龙:有种感觉koon yew yin好像Push这个股好像太过了一点。。。。。好像信心不足一样。。。。。

登录失败:他太认真了，或许会带来反效果。
Jtiasa的主要业务是木材业，种植业它未必会做得比其它种植业者来的好，期望太高反而不美。大馬研究預計常成控股2012財政年鮮果串產量將增長45%至52萬公噸，2013財政年則料另成長50%至75萬公噸，而2012至2014財政年的原棕油價預估則是每公噸3千300令吉。“這將促使該公司成為規模龐大的中型種植公司，2013財政年成熟種植地料倍增至近5萬公頃，而截至2011財政年杪的成熟種植地則達2萬5千零58公頃。”

以上是在前面几楼拿到的资料，再比较一下它过去两年的盈利，你就会发现这家公司的前景未必会大好，除非是油棕价格大起，不然完全没有看头。

didi7349 :Ya,i was there also....he did not talk much how he is so confident of jtiasa except that the trees are entering the prime age.....
Looks like better wait n see....
Even rhb only give tp 2.56

漫游无本:上还真没听过赚大钱要大势宣传让大家一起赚滴，除了MLM和老鼠会
当时我亲戚的朋友加入 ginvera 卖金也是大小声说 refinance 屋子 all in，好像零风险包赚将，结果... 现在状况不祥，没人敢问，就算他不亏也得罪一大堆人
ps: 我不看好也不看坏，没此股在身大起大落也不关我X事

Posted by khhoo > 2014-01-27 00:10 | Report Abuse

红龙:早几个月前做的功课。。。超高的PE。。。。很难看的FCF， 庞大的债务，超低的profit margin。。。。。暂时看了都没有胃口。。那个DIv叫他省起来更好。。。。要是郭哥哥真的Boycot他的油棕，不知几时才能开始赚大钱。。。。。

登录失败:赞成，这Jtiasa越看越让人心寒，买入了半夜都会惊醒的股票之一，它的合理价连RM1.50都不值。以目前交易價計算，常成夾板旗下種植土地的余價（residual value）為4萬令吉（不包括木材），相比對手怡保工程種植（IJMPLNT，2216，主要板種植），常成夾板土地的余價是折價25%。

这点很有问题，土地余价怎么算？种植土地的债务有算上去吗？什么才是合理价格？简直是乱乱来。

Posted by Koon Yew Yin > 2014-01-27 17:01 | Report Abuse

To answer E K Tan, I was also wondering why JT lost about Rm 2 million their palm oil business in 2013 and made Rm 150 million profit in 2012 when its FFB production was less. Alvin Tai CFA of RHB Research explained to me this phenomena. The average selling price of CPO in 2012 was Rm 2,800 and Rm 2,200 per ton in 2013. Moreover, plantation profit also depends on "Yield Drag" factor which is defined as drag on earnings caused by low yields of young planted area. In 2013 JT planted more area and there was comparatively larger area of low yield plants. This simply means that JT has planted so rapidly and it takes time to show profit.

In his talk, he showed comparative figures for SOP, TSH, JT and others. JT' yield drag factor reduce more rapidly than the other plantations. That means JT's profit will increase faster than the others.

Referring to rich's comment to wait to see JT's account in 2014 or 2015 to be convinced. I think it is not a good strategy. The FFB production chart in my article should be convincing enough to buy JT when people are still having doubts of JT's profit growth potential.

Some investors prefer to buy famous companies like KLK, UP and IOI. But you must remember, you cannot buy them cheaply.

Please bear in mind, I do not need you to buy to support the price because I want to buy more when the price corrects.

Posted by Ek Tan > 2014-01-27 18:28 | Report Abuse

Thanks Mr. Koon for the explaination, I will put Jtiasa in my watch list and i think Jtias should be performed better in Q2'14 as the CPO price stay above RM2500 for past 3 month. Happy Chinese New Year.

Posted by kk123 > 2014-01-27 20:45 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-01-27 21:15 | Report Abuse

Here hee hee Mr Koon always came out to promote and then said "I am not asking you to buy". Kind of contradictory

Posted by Optimus1 > 2014-01-27 21:18 | Report Abuse

Haiz..... so many warren buffet wannabe

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-01-27 21:23 | Report Abuse

anyway, I wish everybody best of luck for their investment in jtiasa. Not my kind of stock, but hope you guys can make some money. Happy CNY : )

Posted by Optimus1 > 2014-01-27 21:24 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by buffetthe2nd > 2014-01-27 21:25 | Report Abuse

anybody wanna know y i sell stock A to buy stock B ??? ask me ask me

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-01-27 21:26 | Report Abuse

Why why why ?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-01-27 21:27 | Report Abuse

Please tell... Pleaseeeeeeeee

Posted by Optimus1 > 2014-01-27 21:27 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Optimus1 > 2014-01-27 21:28 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-01-27 21:29 | Report Abuse

Optimus1, are you the same person optimusprime ?

Posted by Optimus1 > 2014-01-27 21:29 | Report Abuse

Same family

Posted by buffetthe2nd > 2014-01-27 21:30 | Report Abuse

you wanna know y???ok...bcz i like stock B hehehe

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-01-27 21:30 | Report Abuse

Hee hee hee same bad blood : )

Posted by Optimus1 > 2014-01-27 21:31 | Report Abuse

Wa ka ka

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-01-27 21:36 | Report Abuse

I sold 40% of my shares last year during the currency devaluation scare (during August ?). End of last year, I sold another 20%. Now 60% cash, 40% shares. I don't know whether this is a right decision. But at least I sleep well.

Posted by buffetthe2nd > 2014-01-27 21:36 | Report Abuse

any1 wanna know my poop color??

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-01-27 21:38 | Report Abuse

What has that got to do with KYY ?

Posted by buffetthe2nd > 2014-01-27 21:40 | Report Abuse

it's kuning yelow yellow

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-01-27 21:42 | Report Abuse

Oh my god.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-01-27 21:46 | Report Abuse

You must have been eating a lot of vege and fruit. Mine is chocolate all the time

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-01-27 22:15 | Report Abuse

He said he got 60 m shares

Posted by Ek Tan > 2014-01-28 00:00 | Report Abuse

We are here to learn/to exchange idea, I think it is perfectly fine for making such disclaimer - not asking anyone of us to buy/support Jtiasa. All idea is valid and we should respect Mr. Koon for sharing his idea in blog instead of making jokes with his statement. To be franked, I'm not convince to buy Jtiasa at current price but at least I learned many thing from Mr. Koon sharing such as Yield drag, palm tree maturity tracking etc... This is just my thought as newbie in this forum.. Thx for spend time for reading my reply and I would like to apologize if my comment causing u felt not comfortable. Happy CNY to all.

Posted by Koon Yew Yin > 2014-01-28 01:09 | Report Abuse

kk123 for your information, RHB/OSK Senior dealer, Phoebe Tan has been buying JT for me in the last few days and Allan Yeoh of Kenanga is waiting to buy some more JT for me when the market drops some more. You can call Phoebe 05 2434908 and Allan 05 2361138 to confirm.

My intentions are completely noble because I strongly believe I have a proven track record and special knowledge that I can share with people who are interested. Obviously KK123 is not willing to learn. Looking at your broken English, I think you are a small minded guy, struggling to make ends meet.

You can google my name to learn more about me and my charity work.

Posted by Grambo > 2014-01-28 01:17 | Report Abuse

Mr Koon, what price are you targeting to buy more?

Posted by Optimus1 > 2014-01-28 04:04 | Report Abuse

Wa ka ka...

Posted by kk123 > 2014-01-28 08:29 | Report Abuse

No need to get too emotional mr koon
I am just saying that if market must be really bad if even you have to come out promote your shares
I see nothing great about jtiasa and that's my view
If u want to promote jtiasa as if it's united plantation or klk it's up to u
Some ppl asking if u are stuck with jtiasa and loss how much money
It will be helpful to them if u can post what's ur entry cost , else to them u r just trying to offload to them - the poor public

Posted by wt222 > 2014-01-28 09:55 | Report Abuse

Is Rimbunan Sawit the best value plantation stock NOW?
by Koon Yew Yin, the philanthropist tycoon.

I have studied almost all the plantation stocks and in my opinion R. Sawit is the cheapest in terms of NTA and its profit growth prospect in the next few years. You can read the details from its right issues prospectus. If you have bought one share at Rm 2.28 before the X rights, you could subscribe for three rights at 80 cents each. As a result, the total number of issued shares is four times bigger and your average cost would be RM 1.17. Moreover, you would be given one bonus share for every one share you own. As a result the total issued shares is 1308 million.

Since the rights issues and the bonus issues were listed on 9th Nov, the daily volume traded has increased to a level that has not seen before. It closed at RM 0.83 on 9th Nov. with an increase of 0.83X2-1.17= 49 cents.

The increased volume traded daily together with the rapid increase in the share price indicates many Fund Managers are now buying as if tomorrow is too late to buy.

As you know, I do not or very seldom recommend people to buy any share. But in this case, I am doing it because I strongly believe this share is the cheapest plantation company in terms of NTA and profit growth prospect in the next few years which is the single most important criterion in share selection.

Most of the palm trees are below 10 years old and their plan to continue planting on their remaining about 23,545 ha in the next 3 years. Imagine the increase value of this additional planted area.

Moreover, unlike any other industry, the profit margin- selling price minus cost has been more than 100% in the last several years for the oil palm plantation. For example, the average selling CPO price for this year should be about Rm 3,000 and the production cost is about Rm 1,300 per ton.

In fact I always have a significant portion of my investment on plantation stocks because the palm trees will always grow and the land will always grow in value. Moreover the demand for palm oil will always grow due to the population and economic growth in China and India, our two most important buyers. In actual fact, the financial difficulties in USA and Europe have little effect on this business. Which business can give you more than 100% profit margin?

The share closed at Rm 0.83 on 9th Nov 2011. Its market capitalisation = Rm 0.83 X 1308 million issued shares= Rm1086 million.

Total planted acreage is 49,300 ha. The cost per ha is 108672 million divided by 49,300 = Rm 21,756.
IOI announces about 3 months ago that they are buying about 11,900 ha of oil palm plantation from Dutaland Bhd for Rm 830 million cash = Rm 69,740 per ha.

For Rm 830 cash you can buy 77% of the whole company of R Sawit Bhd which have just received about Rm 400 million cash from the right issues.

United Plantation total issued shares is 208.13 million shares X Rm 17.80 = Rm 3,705 million market capitalisation. According to its annual 2010 report it has 45,494 ha planted that is Rm 3,705 million divided by 45,494 ha= Rm 81,439 per ha.

R Sawit is selling only at Rm 21,756 per ha.
Koon Yew Yin
10th Nov 2011

Disclaimer:

All information and data on this blog site is for informational purposes only. I make no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, suitability, or validity, of any information. I will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or any losses, injuries, or damages arising from its display or use. In short: invest at your own risk.



Read More http://kclau.com/investment/rsawit/ - See more at: http://kclau.com/investment/rsawit/#sthash.AHAl9dzd.dpuf

Posted by wt222 > 2014-01-28 10:02 | Report Abuse

Mr.Khoon first recommended Rsawit in Nov 2011 when price was traded around Rm0.83.Price was then being pushed to around RM1.20 in Jan or Feb 2012 and since then coming down to the current of RM0.76. With the above confession of Mr.Khoon, it seems that Mr.Khoon and the family happily sold off their shareholdings at around Rm1.00 (while their cost was around Rm0.60) during the said period (Jan/ Feb 2012). In return, Mr.Khoon bought some of the investors a decent dinner for attending his talk on Jtiasa....Seeing his modus operandi of goreng shares....I wish you all good luck

Posted by wt222 > 2014-01-28 10:02 | Report Abuse

http://www.tradesignum.com/chart/rsawit

Posted by wt222 > 2014-01-28 10:08 | Report Abuse

One could be the founder of many big public listed company, one could be the philanthropist tycoon and one could be a Big Shark in Stock market too...

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2014-01-28 10:11 | Report Abuse

Thanks Mr.Khoon for sharing his investment ideas. nonetheless, i believed everyone has its own style and risk tolerance.
the focus is now on O & G, construction counters maybe (later)
plantation stocks will be in the limelight.

Posted by iafx > 2014-01-28 10:13 | Report Abuse

rsawit rolling 4 qtrs. result is negative, profit keep going down since 2011

Posted by wt222 > 2014-01-28 10:18 | Report Abuse

If MR.Khoon was so so positive on Rsawit in Nov 2011, why on earth would he sold all his shares few months after that?

Posted by Koon Yew Yin > 2014-01-28 11:33 | Report Abuse

I try to answer some of your questions:

After recommending R Saiwit why did I sell. When I recommended R Sawit the its price was 83 cents as you have reproduced and within a few months its price shot up above Rm 1.20. I sold because it went up too rapidly, a 50% rise within a few months and also the CPO price was on the down trend. Even if the CPO price was not on the down trend, I would have sold because from my long experience, I notice that no share can go up in price indefinitely for whatever reason and I must sell some to take profit. I also sell if I can find a better share like JT to buy.

Big Shark in the stock market??? You must remember that the stock market is a zero sum play. Some will lose and some will win. Which side do you like to bet on?

Let me tell you my strategy in buying JT. First you must study my published article where I gave all the reasons to buy JT. My family have bought more than 45 million JT shares and we are still accumulating it. Just on 31st Dec 2013, I bought 4.4 million JT at Rm 2.04 from a big fund.

Right now, Phoebe Tan of RHB/OSK is buying JT for me and Allan Yeoh is waiting to buy when the price goes down a little more. At the mean time HL bank Ipoh who has already given me Rm 25 million margin loan has applied to their KL HQ for an additional Rm 5 million. In to total, I have more than Rm 100 million loan, a large part is on JT.

Please study my published article on "how to use Margin finance to increase your profit". Although I believe JT price will continue to go up for many years because its FFB production will continue to increase as shown on the FFB production chart, I must sell some JT to reduce my loan when JT price goes so that I will have money to buy when its price make a correction.

KLK, UP, TSH, SOP and R Sawit are better than JT??? It is very difficult for me write out my analysis of all these other shares to convince you. Only time can tell which is better. I would like you to put down on paper the prices of all these shares and look at them in 6 months, 12 months , 18 months and longer to see which is the best performer.

As I said my intention is to teach you how to make money and I do not need small players to push up JT share price because the daily turnover of JT is relatively large. Alvin Tai of RHB has recommended Southern Acid and JT. Southern Acid shot up like a rocket because it is so easy to push it up. As a big player I cannot buy small companies with illiquid share turnover.

Of course when I tell you what I do, it would appear that I am bragging. Just like when I tell you that I have given more than 250 scholarships to help poor students to complete their tertiary education.

What more do you want to see as I have already taken off my trousers to show you.

Posted by BuLLRam > 2014-01-28 11:39 | Report Abuse

"What more do you want to see as I have already taken off my trousers to show you." Hahahaha..big clap for u Mr. Koon..tks vm 4 ur patience n sharing...Happy NY to u n ur family..cheers..

Posted by Optimus1 > 2014-01-28 11:44 | Report Abuse

lets be fair to Mr KYY. I have been in the industry for over 20yrs. know many ppls in the industry esp the big shark n crocodile. Mr KYY is not one of them. he sincerely want to help. if he want to goreng and make money from ikan bilis, One wont choose such a big company to goreng.

end of story. my conclusion. Mr KYY is just a over kind hearted old man who think he can help i3. hahaha. obviously trapped.