Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 11:02 | Report Abuse

here come our i3 talk cock champion, JT YEO!!!

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 11:05 | Report Abuse

He is the angle come from heaven, i3 拯救的任务世界就靠你了。

Posted by JT Yeo > 2015-11-22 11:07 | Report Abuse

thanks for the compliment

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 11:15 | Report Abuse

Now i know sydney people teach us like this... flame people opinion

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 11:16 | Report Abuse

The share u dun like, u rather spend time to write an article, instead u go find another good share to invest. Hahaha

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 11:20 | Report Abuse

i guess u not even took 30min to go through a company annual report before giving any comment.

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 11:24 | Report Abuse

I dun have any nishin share. but im here to tell u that:

Currently nishin have RM8.9mil cash while total liabilities only have RM10.9mil. How can they bankrupt? The worst situation only no gain in the profit and loss. Can bankrupt? I dont tink so.

Last quarter result, excluded forex gain, the company still have 300k profit.

Posted by JT Yeo > 2015-11-22 11:25 | Report Abuse

thanks for checking my background too. My analysis is for long term, no doubt people can still make money in the short term when company exceed expectations. I am analysing the economic of the business

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 11:26 | Report Abuse

For the past fews year, although they are some quarter that the company not making profit, but most of the quarter they still in profit position.

Other than that, they also paying dividend.

Posted by charlesp > 2015-11-22 11:26 | Report Abuse

no comment because not intetested

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 11:27 | Report Abuse

The future i dont know cause i dont understand about the company. But from the balance sheet, the company do not have any indicator say that the company is going for bankrupt because how low is their debt. Their cash already can settle 80% of their debt (borrowing and trade payable)

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 11:28 | Report Abuse

So this is another crap post by JTYEO. If u got any valid reason, come here and debate with me. I receive any good reason but not crap reason from u. Dont hide behind the scene

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 11:30 | Report Abuse

u goal is long term. Is good but your attitude is bad. every post people took time to do research and write u tend to attack people. If you like their post, just give them a like. If u dont like, please keep quiet and give a valid reason instead of shooting people.

Posted by JT Yeo > 2015-11-22 11:41 | Report Abuse

I have write everything above why it is heading to 'bankruptcy', the company is destroying shareholder value, you're welcome to debate me. 19% return in 10 years, that is permanent loss of capital.

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 11:56 | Report Abuse

1st do you understand what is bankruptcy?
Bankruptcy is a legal status of a person or other entity that cannot repay the debts it owes to creditors.

Are they unable to pay debt?
1) Cash position still able to pay 80% of debt.
2) Revenue increase quarter by quarter. Yeah i might be due to forex exchange that move up the revenue and profit.Refer to 2012 to 2014, the company still able to make profit.
3) They paying about RM1mil to RM2mil dividend per year. This is the bad thing for the company as the company not able to generate so much cash to pay. Even so, as per 30 Sep 2015, their company still able to have a healthy balance sheet despite they paying dividend.

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 11:59 | Report Abuse

So any reason to make them bankrupt? Debtor chase for debt? Banker chase for debt? Or their business not doing well?

You dont know what will happen in next few years but currently they are no sign that the company are going for bankruptcy.

An epic example is lioncor. See their loss. Lioncor loss 500mil per year. Net liabilities postion of -RM0.61. Still have not declare bankrupt. Why? Because it is not so easy that a company goes to bankruptcy

Posted by JT Yeo > 2015-11-22 12:01 | Report Abuse

You didnt get my meaning right, 'bankruptcy' is a metaphor.

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 12:01 | Report Abuse

19% loss in capital still got return. Is low but at least there are giving small return to shareholder. Alot of share not only not giving return but the share price keep dropping. The epic example is MAS

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 12:03 | Report Abuse

hahaha KEEP IT SIMPLE. As u say in last article. What a "metaphor" word to mislead other people.

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 12:06 | Report Abuse

If im a normal reader, i also will mislead by your title. Nihsin growing itself into bankruptcy in the long term.

Instead you can say Nihsin is not worth to invest in long term.

I not recommending any one to sell or buy on Nihsin. No deep research have been done by me.

Posted by JT Yeo > 2015-11-22 12:08 | Report Abuse

Yea okay, feel free to invest. Metaphor is a way to keep it simple, maybe not for you.

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 12:11 | Report Abuse

I wont invest in this company as i got another few good company to invest.

Posted by elit96 > 2015-11-22 12:26 | Report Abuse

in stock market TA come first instead of FA. One thing, if next qr company pay dividen and tommorow good news come out, one word for u, dont "bullshit" other investor by not telling the right favt ok. Keep my word until next qr ok.

Posted by JT Yeo > 2015-11-22 12:52 | Report Abuse

Not telling the right fact? Tomorrow news isnt fact, it is forecasting. TA come first, I agree to disagree, you have your way, I have my way. And like I say im writing for long term, in the short term, you can TA the shit out of it if you want.

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 13:05 | Report Abuse

Par value rm0.20. Using $1 dollar test. Did not explain what is this? This is so called simple. Aiyo the company par value only RM0.20. Use what $1dollar test? Somemore every company profit changing from time to time. Sometime business good sometime not then u keep on invest that company if history result is good? As a value investor, i saw your post too naive and keep on using so called "professional terms" to cover your weakness in other section such as accounting, casting, business knowledge, current affairs.

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 13:05 | Report Abuse

Say wan to debate but in the end continur flaming people. Say out other fact pls. Dun spin ur word again

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 13:06 | Report Abuse

Dun learn like najib. Spin spin spin. Wrong must admit. Talk a man.

Posted by JT Yeo > 2015-11-22 13:22 | Report Abuse

Sorry this is very complicated, continue using your PE 10

Posted by elit96 > 2015-11-22 13:29 | Report Abuse

jt yeo said tommorow news is forecasting? tommorow news is a fact that nihsin will have big annoucement.

JT yeoh, you cock without fact ka? or u just hoping the price will drop and you want ro collect?

Aiyo, i think u had bad dream bro. Sleep well ok, i will eat pop corn tommorow to watch the show.

Dont tell so much bullshit if u dont know what goes around the company.

LOL, have a nice weekend.

haha

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 13:37 | Report Abuse

Just now say wan debate. Now say complicated. Hahahahaha. Dun know what to talk is it? Anyway not i saying PE10 is the basic. Is another author. He write good then follow. Not good just dont folo. Need to flame people?

Elit96: Anyway he just know how to use historical data to analysis. I dun know what is the big announcement but i dont dare to giv comment on it. Also i dont know whether it is true or not.

Posted by JT Yeo > 2015-11-22 13:48 | Report Abuse

Whether tomorrow is big or small, it doesnt concern me, im writing based on long term fact. The economics of the business doesnt change just because a quarter turns out to be good.

Posted by JT Yeo > 2015-11-22 13:50 | Report Abuse

Debate is based on if you have certain knowledge, come back and debate when you know what is $1 test and ROIC.

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 13:56 | Report Abuse

If u invest in long term, u didnt concern on tomorrow thing? Hahaha. Ok let assume. Just assume tomorrow this company enter into a long term contract with a great reputable supplier? Then how?

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 13:59 | Report Abuse

Ur test is ok. But ur explaination and conclusion is totally misleading. You can use that test. But in the end ur title fail. Just like other newspaper. Just to "talk big" about non existence thing.

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 14:03 | Report Abuse

Economy of business doesnt change? Then why u invest in flbhd? The company is beneficial from USD dollar. Are you holding for long term? If the usd excahnge rate go back to USD1= RM3.20 will u invest? Hahaha naive talk man. No matters how good is the company. As long as the environment change, u need to adapt it.

Anyway i do not deny that flbhd is a good company. Just that i using this example to discuss with you

Posted by JT Yeo > 2015-11-22 14:06 | Report Abuse

I invest in Flbhd not because of forex, it is because of the cash in the company and decision to buyback, period. I invest regardless where the forex is.

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 14:13 | Report Abuse

But the price did not go up alot 2014. Then u can conclude that this company not good?

Also, the share price of this company only move significantly when the US dollar going up. So does the historical stastic still important for you? Yeah the company may be good in fundamental but the share still remain the same throughout 2014.

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 14:15 | Report Abuse

If u care about cash, then u shoud invest in kseng. Over rm1.5billion cash in the company. Still cheap for current market price of rm1.8billion

Posted by JT Yeo > 2015-11-22 14:28 | Report Abuse

I didnt discover flbhd until early 2015, the price hasnt runup back then. Kssng is slightly different as in they are involved in palm oil, palm oil is a capital intensive business, to buy lands, years to grow, and sell at commodity price. Same for many cash-rich property stocks, they need the money to buy more lands for development, those cash cannot be return to shareholders through dividend or buyback, they need to be reinvested for the future. Flbhd generate 10-15mil profit a year, only need to use 2-3mil of their cash each year, with cash at 90mil, they do not know what to do with it, thats why their dividend yield is at 10.7% of my buy price.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-11-22 14:42 | Report Abuse

I bought focus lumber at 120，sold at 1.10 (yes, lost)

I sold because no confidence with their business (plywood not exactly an industry with moat)

But now it is 2.80

Do I regret ? No

I don't hold on to a business if I lack confidence (doesn't mean I am right)

Congratulation to those who have the wisdom and knowledge to hold on until now

If it is not my money, it is not my money

Once again - No regret

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 14:43 | Report Abuse

Yeah it is good that they rewarding the shareholder. What my concern is:

The price have been moving up about 100percent (i dont know exactly what the is percentage i just roughly calculate) during the year. Some of the important part also need to concern. Out of rm9.6mil profit, rm4.2mil is a gain on exchange rate. So the real gain for the company is only rm5.2mil. If calculate long term, eps 5sen x 4 = 20sen. Currently rm2.74 is overvalued.

Second thing. Actually the business is not expanding. The real reason increase is because of forex. Forex have gaining 32percent. U calculate using 34mil x 132percent u will get around 44.8mil of revenue comparing last year same quarter.

For jun 2015, the result increase due to delay in custom clearance. Some ppl read it as the company business growing. Actually is delay in counting the revenue. Hence it already fully value.

Every company have their own value. For me buy low sell high is the ways to earn a decent profit. Flbhd will be a very good buy at rm1.40, decent buy at rm1.80 but not a good buy at RM2.74

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 14:47 | Report Abuse

PE10 just a simple concept to value a company. Just like coldeye say. But if PE10 support with other reason such as business grow and good fundamental, it will be more good and realible investment

Posted by JT Yeo > 2015-11-22 15:24 | Report Abuse

You are correct, the business itself isnt a strong growth biz, mainly because they dont intend to expand, and as Icon8888 say, it is a very commodity business as well. Without the forex gain, the revenue/profit would have gone up a bit only. In my opinion fair value is at 2.50-3.00, so current price upside is very limited. Unless they decide to return a large portion of cash to investors.

If you are interested you can look into Mercury. They used to have a lot of cash too, now they went and acquire 70% of a construction company for $37mil. Most from cash and borrow some. The construction company guarantee them $6.6 million profit for next 3 years, or $20mil, (70% = 14mil) because of outstanding order book of $120mil. Mercury main biz (paint) earns about 5-6mil a year. So the construction biz will almost double the profit. The recent q result release few days ago already show 100% jump on revenue qoq and 50% jump on profit. The only downside risk is main business is not growing due to GST and consumer weak spending.

Posted by pingdan > 2015-11-22 15:46 | Report Abuse

Just that the bank borrowing increase RM30mil so much while cash left RM9.4mil only. Anyway they acquire new company make me interested to know more about the company. Anyway thx for the recommendation for mercury. I will try to do research on it.

Posted by elit96 > 2015-11-22 17:30 | Report Abuse

the momment nihsin reach 40sen or 50sen, please call me back ok. bye2. LOL. too much fundemental analysis sometimes waste of time

Posted by elit96 > 2015-11-22 17:35 | Report Abuse

the more u study on FA, u should not forget TA. Ones you forgot the TA, u may miss the train. In stock trading got two rules.

1. earn money and take proft
2. dont forget rules no.1

Posted by DreamGuardian > 2015-11-22 17:39 | Report Abuse

ya meh

Posted by DreamGuardian > 2015-11-22 17:39 | Report Abuse

ya lor

Posted by JT Yeo > 2015-11-22 17:46 | Report Abuse

Thats your rules, not mine. I don't mind missing train. There are trains everyday.

Posted by shinado > 2015-11-22 22:17 | Report Abuse

Nice article keep it up. I would suggest using the Altman-Z score to determine if a company will go bankrupt within 2 years time. Its accuracy since the 80s is roughly 90% so it should provide a better insight on this subject.