Why do we need to categories what person belobg to which type or what group? Icon mentality totally toxic by our bn govt. I can be ta investor or fundamental, or both. Or neither both.
Value traders is not suitable for investors with large sum to invest. If the amount to be invested is hundreds of millions, dashing in and out of the market would be a problem.
Very good article by icon8888. I prefer to be value trader bcz it is unlikely to find very strong moat company in malaysia for very long term period like cocacola.
Icon8888 , great article. The blog below did a similar study on value and momentum and concluded the same thing that starting from Value first then sorting the value ideas by momentum yielded the best results. However, one thing we always forget is that these studies do not take into account the transaction costs involved in adopting a momentum strategy which requires more rebalancing. In the short run, these may not matter, but in the long term (like 10-20 years), the returns could be greatly reduced...
I think investing there are many shades of grey, more than 50 shades. Value traders and investors are just a rough classification but still a useful one. i.e. those that buy moat and those that doesnt etc so you can differentiate it.
But from my understanding, i can be wrong. OTB strategies never really put any mention on intrinsic value. He talks about many ways to skin a cat, as long it is a good cat. He doesnt care about value & price, as long there's a ride, ride we will. If one doesnt look at IV, there's no more 'value' in the strategy.
And thats another conflicting thing. If someone is successful riding the wave here and there, why would he be sitting there and do nothing like what most value investors do?
There is always somethings to worry about, when u are investing. U never know 'mr market' might drop 50% next black Monday, especially October or year end. So watch your temperament before u really want to invest.
I spotted Mercury also, before you told me in one of our earlier discussions
I have a habit of regularly checking Bursa's circular to shareholders section. That is where the information about Major transactions are housed (that was how I discovered Geshen at 56 sen).
I studied it and didn't dislike it. But didn't buy any either as I was a bit lethargic of punting exotic stocks during that period (it was during the recent bear market)
I think you can make money from this stock, best wishes from me
Good write up Icon8888. Yeah I am equally mystified with OTB's performance.No I am not a subscriber to OTB but results show.
I guess you need TA to meander through the noise as the stock needs to propel on a higher plane ie. higher relative strength or using momentum oscillators when the stock is about to take off. This is where his stock screening comes into the picture.
What is important and critical is cash in your pockets ie. sell on strength , again when the relative strength loses momentum. For any given year when you get cash at 10% at ROI within 2 or 3 months you are a full fledged trader and you might hate to admit it.:):):) Five years is a very , very long time in the Malaysian context to see true value emerges.
Even a moat like TNB has to contend with the Inland Revenue Department with over some RM1 billion in back dated taxes..so moats in Malaysia are fast disappearing...let alone a well known China based stock since its listing in Malaysia 6 years ago and with huge a cash cow(an illusive moat?) have not declared a dividend in the latest AGM...so where is the price discovery?
It is people like OTB who puts money in your pockets that makes the difference...call it what you want...he sees value by noticing the relative strength and momentum of the stock.No I am not a promoter...I follow the golden rule which most unit trusts employ ie. performance today is no guarantee it will perform in the future.:) Hope to see more write ups from you.
In my opinion... OTB is a hybrid of value trader and value investor. He goes for uptrending stocks that have good valuations and have more potential upside. His method is quite effective as those counters (most of them), are also being monitored and pushed by the insiders and funds. He doesn't need to wait for a long time to make a landslide or tsunami sort of killing in the stockmarket (e.g targeting for the lowest price). He can just ride the wave and make whatever % there is (e.g min 20% to multiple baggers) at any point of the stock market cycle.
Hey Icon yea ure right. Mercury is an arbitrage opportunities which can still never materialized. Previously full of cash (low ROE) as you are aware, used it to bought a company venture into construction (higher ROE), and profit guarantee for 3 years. So we will see.
OTB methods is a very tired, consumed energy and low risk method which involved combination of many methods....but highest return.... He is so love and enjoy his work... With his method, unless your are very hardworking, if not impossible to get the highest performance...
If you don't mind, may I take a look on your template .
I would like to see what will make you think a company in good fundamental.
Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > Jan 4, 2016 11:17 AM | Report Abuse
I have my own template of FA report. I also know what is margin of safety, target price base on Intrinsic value of the stock, Potential gain, EV/EBIT and others important ratio. I copy the best from all the best sifu on FA. I believe I am equally good in FA. I do not simply buy stock base on TA only. I use TA comes first and FA comes second strategy. All my recommended stocks are guarantee to have very good FA. Icon8888, are I right ? Thank you. Ooi
I personally think that no matter what methods you use, earning profit is of paramount importance (in decent way).
The difficulty for an investor is to CONSISTENTLY achieve APPLICABLE ANNUALIZED capital return (I believe using TA investors will be harder to achieve above target). Good profit for 3-4 years doesn't really prove anything. Consistent results for 10 years and above only can be considered as an capable investor (his/her wealth should have been significantly amplified during the 10 years). I do not condemn Mr Ooi or praise Mr KC Chong, it is just my humble opinion.
I would recommend a book by Seth Klarman: Margin of Safety. His investing methods revealed in the book is quite orthodox to Warren Buffett but truly belong to value investing.
Investment is knowledge pay best interest Investment is most intelligent when it is most business like. Benjamin Graham
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Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-01-04 08:00 | Report Abuse
Snake like to spin lies. This article is total waste of time and useless. Otb is here, he wont need anyone to describe his method.