Posted by 股海無涯 > 2016-03-15 12:34 | Report Abuse

MAA is cash cow, the problem always lie on Oversea affliate(TAA, AAI, PAA, IAA), Thailand stable and become another cashcow, if AAI, PAA, IAA, and new Japan AA stop Bleeding, the Cashflow(and Profit) will 10x more strong then now under low fuel price.

Posted by goreng_goreng > 2016-03-15 12:35 | Report Abuse

geng woooooo

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2016-03-15 12:35 | Report Abuse

Great work icon8888!

However, it is Profit growth that matters rather than Revenue growth.

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2016-03-15 12:43 | Report Abuse

Warren Buffett suggests (for capital intensive industry) to adjust net profit figure by add back depreciation and subtract capital expenditure, the numbers will look really ugly if you do that, i think.

Posted by soros228 > 2016-03-15 13:28 | Report Abuse

Well said.

Posted by r°Moi > 2016-03-15 13:29 | Report Abuse

Going quite far back..... so.. see any gaming the associates.. previously??

Posted by r°Moi > 2016-03-15 13:32 | Report Abuse

The speed you are at top 3.... everybody is in AirAsia... everybody

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2016-03-15 16:16 | Report Abuse

airlines was facing intense competition & high fuel costs. the game changer was introduction of low cost fares structure ( pioneer by virgin air ) and copied by AA. to address the high fuel charges ( eg sky rocking crude prices ). Majority of airlines now pass on the fuel excess surcharge to passengers. AA did one better - passengers also charge for meal, drinks and even faster check in.

AA model was further improvise by Tony FErnandez and make the model super efficient compared to MAS. Using AA models ( Tony Fernandez ) spread the wings to all regional centres using the lease and JV structures. The head hong cho knows traffic connectivity is important and volume is the name of the game.

Icon did a good job on the AA operating analysis fare structure. It may not be 100% perfect but it need time and good anaytical skill. Whatever is it ( without sounding crony ) those reading this blog must have some vested interest in AA or AAX.

The only drag on AA was their overseas JV in Vietnam, Indonesia. THailand is going geat and in fact the second biggest contributor, With the new routes to Chiang Mai and Hathyai coming April. AA Thailand will be even better. Last year the USD rallied against most Asian currciences resulting in forex losses.

Hopefully, this year we have seen the peak in the USD strenght. The reverse will benefit all the regional curriences (i.e. if they strenghten against the USD ) Forex gains will be substantial. this is my personal take on AA. Happy trading

Posted by Probability > 2016-03-15 19:58 | Report Abuse

When the Crude price dips...RM weakens.
But the effective fuel cost in RM is still cheaper...

so don't worry about the short terms effects of Forex - only think of the long term implication of Fuel price.

Posted by JN88 > 2016-03-15 20:05 | Report Abuse

No other air line can compete with Tony, he start from nothing ! He refinance his house...and start his dream .cost =0.

Posted by tkp2 > 2016-03-15 20:10 | Report Abuse

now still not too late to sailang.

i seldom see Icon call for "screaming buy", i continue to average up everyday.

Posted by tkp2 > 2016-03-15 20:11 | Report Abuse

this year play AA can survive already as a full time trader. :)

Posted by Ricky Kiat > 2016-03-15 21:22 | Report Abuse

great work , sifu icon888, i join the plane already. fly together. cheers...

Posted by andryong > 2016-03-16 00:11 | Report Abuse

Tony sell his car, sell his house, and sailang follow icon.

Posted by Blacksail > 2016-03-16 00:34 | Report Abuse

I'm not giving up my pride! I'll never going to give up my pride. This is me. AA

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-03-16 02:45 | Report Abuse

Icon is too late at his call. When it traded last yr ending, u shld have picked it.
You let your ego takeover your logic instead.
But overall some assumption can be danger. What if fuel cost goes up again. What if mas turnaround and be in competition again, they had to cut price again. And Indonesia is the biggest mkt now, must tackle

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-03-16 02:46 | Report Abuse

Unless they can succeed in Indonesia, else no way I see it can grow strongly. 2bil ppl, imagine 10% only travel using aa. Tht is super mkt, must tackle

Posted by Ryan Chong > 2016-03-16 09:42 | Report Abuse

why everyone like to see the last quarter and tells story, if that is so good ? why everyone dont buy on 0.8 that time? everytime i see air asia story i feel so funny, it is like wave, everyone tells how good it is how good it is, in the end drop like shit, like last time aax 0.75, people say how good it is, in the end drop until 0.2 , what now? want to goreng again and drop further? tony does not change the nature of business, does not change the operation , if a company does not make the changes , everything is still same, the improved quarter report does not give the people who does not willing to make a changes. the air asia is like passive mode, what i see is only all crazy people buy only

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2016-03-16 10:08 | Report Abuse

Ryan, not crazy people, but small people.

When Tony was on the roadshow selling AAX IPO, he told us Airasia was worth RM6. "AAX should follow growth trajectory of Airasia." And then we all see huge losses after AAX listed.

3 weeks ago i was quite excited when the QR released. But after i read what icon did, look through the numbers, i changed my mind. Warren Buffett is right! It is a zero sum game, the economics of airlines fit what Warren predicts (let's say it is monopolistic competition).

You take away the unusual amount recovered, PAT is -200m.

IAA is in bigger mess when oil price is low, whatif their competitors cut prices even more, IAA is a prey (and all other loss making associates).

Goreng goreng ok lah, don't sailang.

Posted by Ktesen Kean Teong Ng > 2016-03-16 10:45 | Report Abuse

Not very good sign today, failed to stand above 1.80. See how later.

Posted by 007 > 2016-03-16 11:19 | Report Abuse

after ICON8888 post, I sailang AA share, thank you ICON8888, now I can buy new car, new house and spend AA money

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-03-16 18:50 | Report Abuse

007, how much you bought? So fast can buy so many things aledi? Just up few cents & you start celebrate aledi?

If you have so much money as what you said, you won't feel so extremely excited like this.

Posted by Probability > 2016-03-16 19:01 | Report Abuse

may bought with 1.62 Million and sold at 1.81 Million..
150K house & 50K car?
hmm...agreed..not so attractive for a millionaire

Posted by 3EMWE > 2016-03-17 01:25 | Report Abuse

maintain overweight

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-03-17 02:10 | Report Abuse

Buy or sell is a choice.

But there is no way a blogger can run an airline. Even PW partner would be lost if asked to do it.

Posted by 007 > 2016-03-17 10:05 | Report Abuse

moneySIFU, I'm a timid person, AA is a big risk counter to me. I had sleepless night last few months due to my own decision. ICON8888 come to my rescue. I will go back to bank and palm oil again

Posted by hng33 > 2016-03-21 17:51 | Report Abuse

Icon

You have rightly point and clearly state airasia topline consistent growth, and with lowering now oil cost will direct impact on airasia bottom line significantly. I have bought many today at 1.74, expect it will regain momentum to break 1.80 decisively, paving toward 2.00 soon

In additional, if you have time, kindly also figure out the fair value for awc.......many contract secure and concession agreement + net cash position+ eps growth. Thanks

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-21 18:10 | Report Abuse

wish u make lots of money from AA

Will take a look at AWC when free

Posted by hng33 > 2016-03-21 19:54 | Report Abuse

Icon,

How likely AA will pay dividend next month? Will it more than 3 sen judging for improving prospect

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-21 20:12 | Report Abuse

ha ha sorry, I don't have the answer.

Posted by hng33 > 2016-03-21 20:29 | Report Abuse

No problem, AA is growth stock, even with dividend yield at low side 2%, fair valuation PE should above 10x.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-03-22 12:29 | Report Abuse

hmmmmmmmmm, now only chase?