股海無涯
【AAX】對最近暴漲和下星期業績的一些淺見 |股海無涯
股海無涯
Publish date: Fri, 19 Aug 2016, 03:13 PM
股海無涯
0 97
依般若波羅蜜多故 心無罣礙 無罣礙故 無有恐怖 遠離顛倒夢想 究竟涅槃
投資如修行，心态很重要。
【股海无涯】投資事件簿，
記錄投資路上的是非成敗
http://e-thg.blogspot.com/
https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth
投資如修行，心态很重要。
【股海无涯】投資事件簿，
記錄投資路上的是非成敗
http://e-thg.blogspot.com/
https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth
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Net Operating Profit Est Loss 1 million |
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EPS Est Profit 9 million EPS 0.2 |
- 以上是我按照上兩個星期官方發佈的Q2 operating Stat最新數據做的Q2業績預測
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預測結果為:
- Net Operating Profit: 1 Million (Loss)
- PAT: 9 million (Profit)
- EPS: 0.21
- 平均票價按上季度presentation, AVG BASE FARE估計最多只能達到+15%, 在計算的時候我已經相對樂觀的+20%來計算, 如果Avg Base Fare不符合預期, 很有可能出現虧損.
- Ancillary Income我也相對樂觀的預測155/pax, 以淡季來講有難度, 去年Q2只是105
- 油價Q1 57下降至Q2 54, 美金平均4.2下降至4.0左右, 可是ASK增加4%, 預計可節省15m左右的費用
- 以上Estimate Calculation 估計defferer Tax 20m, 這點純屬猜測, 因為相信如果不是差太遠, 管理層不會讓報表出現紅字.
- 如果沒有Deffere Tax, Q2按估計會是虧損.
總結
對於最近的暴漲我保持警惕, 有點摸不著頭腦, 暫時賣出所有AAX觀望...
因為按本身風險和資金分配的評估, Q2 Result并不足以刺激股價如此的暴漲, 除非有其他位置消息,
或者, 純屬有人炒作...於是根據本身的風險承受程度暫時選擇退出觀望.
2014年Q2前我也持有過AAX, 當時也是市場上炒作業績, 結果業績已出爐股價就一路向南... 當時即使賣出扣除還小賺了RM87, 當時也是業績出爐前從0.7左右的水平飆升至接近0.9.
所以看到16年又出現這種情況, 然後按自己的業績分析, 并不符合如此暴漲, 所以顯得特別警惕.
如我所說, 對於AAX長期發展我普遍保持樂觀, (對之前分析有興趣可按鏈接赤兔歸來 http://e-thg.blogspot.sg/2016/04/aax.html)
不過對於現在的情況, 如果Q2業績如我預測, 這兩天的暴漲之後, 相信不會有太多期待"長期發展"的投資者留下來.
如果業績超乎想象, 我已經從高峰的500k Unit慢慢減持到現在全部出清, 賣出的價格也還不出, 相信這樣的高價以後還是有機會買回來的...
至於各位老股友們, 就按自己的風險, 資金, 投資期限去做判斷吧.
當然我也可能嚴重判斷錯誤, 各位老股友們, 歡迎給點意見和想法.
卍 個人分析記錄 買賣盈虧自負 分析若有錯誤 勞煩提點指出
Facebook PAGE: https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth
股海無涯 Blog: http://e-thg.blogspot.com/
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Discussions
4 people like this. Showing 33 of 33 comments
if my estimation on ticket price is right, and management not purposely add up any "special" item, it should be very close to my estimation, someway around breakeven. anyway, jus my personal opinion, and i can be very wrong :)
2016-08-19 16:56
AAX, there were four “Buy”, four “Hold” and three “Sell” by FF review for 2Q16 result.
2016-08-19 17:00
It is astounding to know that AAX will only break even at current low oil price. I am very interested to find out how accurate this prediction is.
2016-08-19 17:21
My previous article showed that AAX's earning capacity is about RM200 mil per annum, without deferred tax, forex, etc
2016-08-19 17:26
icon, this only my personal opinion base on my own understanding. please feel free to share your view. i think the main problem here is the estimation of Avg base fare, other then tht,all other estimation actually quit similar compare to last quarter.
2016-08-19 17:40
see tunepro already know airasia result will be good also
next week tunepro aaxe airasia fly yea
2016-08-19 17:40
and i still bullish for full year turn around and profit, the reason i sell is i think many people is over Optimist for coming quarter alone
2016-08-19 17:44
Your esteem predictions shall face the facts in next few days, whether right or wrong.........
2016-08-19 18:06
can gu hai wu ya write an article regarding coming AIRASIA Qr?Any estimation?
2016-08-19 22:32
er, for AA it should be a good quarter, i dun foresee any big surprise on this quarter. A decent result wil be satisfy, most important is whether the sales of AAC and special dividend and when wil it come true. as for now there is not much to worry of AA. BUT FOR SURE, Dont expect 800m profit like q1, half of it i will happy enuf...
2016-08-20 01:40
Airasia price is too high now, I prefer to sell and keep cash. It is quite risky keep airline stock as this business may face uncertainty at any moment, the debt is too high.
2016-08-20 02:28
I don't quite get it. As long as the rpk is similar to last quarter and the cost remain flat . The operating profit shall be quite similar. As for the avg base fair it doesn't match the math.
2016-08-20 10:34
Benedict, 這是I3investor的portfolio, 這個頁面最上面右邊算起第5個TAB. 個人覺得比很多交易所的都來的好用很多, 只是沒每次交易必須自己輸入數據.
2016-08-20 11:44
cruger12345, i think the only argument here is my estimation on Avg Base Fare, my estimation is base on the information get from official presentation after Q1 result, and since that is the "pass"information, i can be very wrong. however, after evaluate my appetite of risk due to the soar on share price this 2 days. i decide to step aside and observe 1st. if the result is superb, sure i will not hesitate to buy it back.
2016-08-20 11:48
Thanks for sharing, cost I had no much comment, the only question mark is on average fare, I doubt the average fare is 472, that is quite low as compared to previous 2 quarters, AAX flight route to China, like Shanghai, Guangzhou, Japan, Korea, and Australia, new route is including Gold Coast, Busan, Sapporo), the average fare using 472 is actually in a question mark, I think AAX average fare to this city at least will be at last 2 quarter, so using 566 will get 97 NOP, using 580, will get 111 NOP. Just my 2 cent opinion.
2016-08-20 23:37
Sapporo is start from Oct 2015, Gold Coast double flight frequency since Jun 2016, Busan just ignore as started from 2013. Just to highlight the average fare in 472 per pax as lower than previous 2 qtr is really in question mark.
2016-08-20 23:47
AAX will not drop but instead go up from this point. Why? Because of the aggressive buying seen last week. As you can see from the chart, it was very well supported at the 46.5 sen level. So any drop is a good buy. A lot of them who sold at 49 sen will be waiting to buy back
for second round and any drop will be eaten up. Don't wait too long.
Once it crossed the 50 sen mark, there will be no road blocks.
80 sen will be the target price. Bear in mind QR is just around the corner. Don't sell. Hold tight. QR expect to be good. That is why
a lot of people are buying AHEAD...before the QR release. They know it is going to be Damn good.
Look at Comcorp and AWC which trust 100% rocket up after their QR was released and never drop back to their original price. So this is the time. GRAB!!!!!! Don't regret for not buying early. Early birds always catch the worm. After result announce, Wed will be gapping up and very hard to chase. I remember how it feels. I was chasing comcorp...and it was flying way too fast... from a 35 sen stock fly to 72 sen. It was such an experience that I will never forget. I learnt my lesson now. Buy early...thats my advise.
2016-08-21 10:00
A big clap ! Should learn from you to tabulate the calculation, see next quarter result who would be more accurate :)
2016-08-23 18:58
respect for sifu 股海无涯 for amazingly accurate prediction !!! This is really an eye opener for me !!! Kow tow kow tow kow tow
2016-08-23 20:08
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good..too many people are having over expectation on Q2 result...
2016-08-19 15:32