Posted by kcchongnz > 2016-11-01 04:34 | Report Abuse
Posted by Wing50 > Nov 1, 2016 02:05 AM | Report Abuse
It is entirely your prerogative to agree or disagree with my statement that up-to-date information is vital to decision making in selection of shares, as historical financial data are all factored in the share price.
Prediction of the future and success in investing are two entirely different matters.
You don't need a snake-oil salesman to give prediction of the future. You would be better off to consult a clairvoyant, so long you are happy and believe in it.
Even if you correctly predicted the future that doesn't mean you are a successful investor.
We are well aware that even the most successful investors in the world will time and again get it wrong. However, that doesn't mean that he/she is not a successful investor.
So, why would I expect you to become a snake-oil salesman to give me prediction of the future?
As a retail investor, there is limitation of what he can do, the most is to base on annual report and published financial statements, and/or industrial report, other analysts reports etc. To get other information like management plans, future contracts, prospect of the industry etc, those are the job of a professional analyst. This information is important, but is it really so "vital", a must have in order to be successful in investing?
And tell me, how many of those professional analysts, in percentage wise, with so much "vital" information at their disposal, have done very well?
I have shown many times in i3investor, really successful super investor such as Walter Schloss of deep value investing, Joel Greenblatt of Magic Formula, Coldeye based on his 5 yardsticks extracted from annual report, or ven Buffett of his famous metric of return on capital, etc. Does anyone of these tell you that predicting the future is very important for your investing success?
"historical financial data are all factored in the share price."?
I used to use to argue with others that the above of market efficiency is always true when I was studying a master degree in finance, because I was brain-washed. After reading many books and writings of those super investors, and from my own investing experience in the last 10years, some of which I have shared all over i3investor in the last 4 years, I have completely changed my view.
Buffett used to say, "If the market is efficient, I would be holding a tin can in my hand now."
"Even if you correctly predicted the future that doesn't mean you are a successful investor."
Why not? The question is how many people can do that?
"We are well aware that even the most successful investors in the world will time and again get it wrong. However, that doesn't mean that he/she is not a successful investor."
Who are those very successful super investor who time the market, get them wrong, and be very successful? What is the percentage of them?