I wonder sometimes what this stockmanmy tried to twist? what's wrong with value investing? While value investment method has been proven useful & successful in many ways for more than decades, if not a century, it may not be the only one out there, for example are chart & technical & so on, but definitely thousands miles better than KYY's rules & idiot dynamic investing.
KYY's 2016 stock picks are still negative return of 12% even as at today. 2017 stock picks are just so so only, what's good to proud of? Too much talking & too little delivering. Same goes to stockmanmy.
One more thing, KYY's rule is actually small part of value investing, why keep promoting the small branch of a big tree & condemning the tree useless? Oh, if a small branch of a mango tree can grow up itself as a tree, it will become jack fruit tree instead? What a joke on you, stockmanmy!
Arguing here has no merits. Statistic will prove which theory works. How many investor who sailang makes it big and how many value investor makes it big will shows us which method is more superior right? A big sweep winner will tell you just follow him buys toto, sailang all the way will do after all he is the living proof but how many who follow this method actually ends up with nothing?
The below are stockmanmy's pick and Ooi Teik Bee's pick based on the closing price on 29/4/2016.
Let us check the performance on 30/12/2016.
Bornoil 0.15 X 14,000 = 2100 CBIP - 2.25 X 900 = 2025 Ekovest - 1.42 X 1500 = 2130 Ecoworld - 1.29 X 1500 = 1935 Taan - 4.79 X 200 = 958 Jtiasa - 1.35 x 700 = 945 Total capital = 10093
Actual performance on 30/12/2016 Bornoil 0.18 X 14,000 = 2520 CBIP - 1.97 X 900 = 1773 Ekovest - 2.38 X 1500 = 3570 Ecoworld - 1.34 X 1500 = 2010 Taan - 3.95 X 240 = 948 (1 for 5 BI) Jtiasa - 1.34 x 700 = 938 Total capital = 11759 Total gain = +1666 or +16.50%
My pick Gamuda-WE - 0.995 X 4,000 = 3,980 Gadang - 2.08 X 600 = 1,248 Gkent - 1.71 X 800 = 1,368 Kimlun-WA - 0.705 X 1,600 = 1,128 Pohuat-WB - 0.675 X 2,000 = 1,350 WTK - 1.20 X 1,000 = 1,200 Total capital = 10,274
Actual performance on 30/12/2016 Gamuda-WE - 1.21 X 4,000 = 4,840 Gadang - 1.05 X 1500 = 1,575 (1 split into 2 and 1 for 4 BI) Gadang-WB - 0.42 x 300 = 126 (Free WB) Gkent - 3.04 X 1000 = 3,040 (1 for 4 BI) Kimlun-WA - 0.67 X 1,600 = 1,072 Pohuat-WB - 0.775 X 2,000 = 1,550 WTK - 0.995 X 1,000 = 995 Total capital = 13,198 Total gain = +2,924 or +28.46%
Summary stockmanmy gain +1666 or +16.50% OTB - Gain +2,924 or +28.46%
I wish to post this record here for reference to avoid future argument.
I used the below magic formulae to select stocks to beat stockmanmy. I used Margin Of Safety > 30% I used EV/EBIT < 8 I used (22.5*EPS*Total Equity/share)^0.5 I used IV= (EPS*(7.5+1.5g)*4.4)/Y I used Discounted Cash Flows Calculator I used ROIC (Equity) > 12% I used ROE > 10% I also used the followings :- CFFO > 50% Net Profit Price to CFFO <= 15 Free Cash Flow > 30% Net Profit Price to Free Cash Flow <=20 Cash Yield > 4% Earnings Yield > 12% Price / Book Value < 1.5 Interest Coverage > 9
I am not an accountant, I want to talk on facts and figures only.
But OTB will not tell me what happened to the bet between his Gamuda Warrant and my Econpile........hahaha.
anyway...the more rules, the more restrictive the rules and accounting formulas/ ratios.....the higher the likelihood a portfolio full of shares with the same characteristics.....breaking a fundamental rule of portfolio theory.
There are a lot of valid reasons for portfolio theory too besides the tycoon approach to investing.
But, at least sailang, you know what you are doing, where you going.
OTB...why don't you update those portfolios above to latest current prices...you probably do not want to bring it up again......lol.
It is also too simplistic to look at total returns ...sophisticated investors measure performance on the basis of returns per unit of risk ( variations).
OTB...why don't you update those portfolios above to latest current prices...you probably do not want to bring it up again......lol.
Answer here
The below are stockmanmy's pick and Ooi Teik Bee's pick based on the closing price on 29/4/2016.
Let us check the performance on 28/4/2017.
Bornoil 0.15 X 14,000 = 2100 CBIP - 2.25 X 900 = 2025 Ekovest - 1.42 X 1500 = 2130 Ecoworld - 1.29 X 1500 = 1935 Taan - 4.79 X 200 = 958 Jtiasa - 1.35 x 700 = 945 Total capital = 10093
Actual performance on 28/4/2017 Bornoil 0.185 X 14,000 = 2590 CBIP - 2.06 X 900 = 1854 Ekovest - 1.42 X 1500 x 5/2 = 5325 (2 for 5 split) Ecoworld - 1.52 X 1500 = 2280 Taan - 3.74 X 240 = 897.6 (1 for 5 BI) Jtiasa - 1.17 x 700 = 819 Total capital = 13765.6 Total gain = +3672.6 or +36.38%
My pick Gamuda-WE - 0.995 X 4,000 = 3,980 Gadang - 2.08 X 600 = 1,248 Gkent - 1.71 X 800 = 1,368 Kimlun-WA - 0.705 X 1,600 = 1,128 Pohuat-WB - 0.675 X 2,000 = 1,350 WTK - 1.20 X 1,000 = 1,200 Total capital = 10,274
Actual performance on 28/4/2017 Gamuda-WE - 1.37 X 4,000 = 5,480 Gadang - 1.28 X 1500 = 1,920 (1 split into 2 and 1 for 4 BI) Gadang-WB - 0.635 x 300 = 190.5 (Free WB) Gkent - 4.33 X 1000 = 4,330 (1 for 4 BI) Kimlun-WA - 0.77 X 1,600 = 1,232 Pohuat-WB - 0.83 X 2,000 = 1,660 WTK - 0.995 X 1,000 = 995 Total capital = 15,807.5 Total gain = +5,533.5 or +53.85%
Summary stockmanmy gain +3672.6 or +36.38% OTB - Gain +5,533.5 or +53.85%
I wish to post this record here for reference to avoid future argument.
I told you, stockmanmy did not do his homework and simply bullshit his way through. I take 28/4/2017 closing, I am still the winner.
Luck! Well said! I have to agree with you Mr Chong, that's why we can see many stocks in KYY and Stockman the like not performing. Occasionally luck is on anybody side but most other time, probably not.
its so strange that so many of these successful businessman suicide..guess they are being kiasu (in the sense that one can't accept defeat or meager returns) ..guess this plays a very important factor in being 'very' successful.
hmm...shall i just aim to fall slightly better than the normal bell curve (mean)...no need to aim for the extraordinary? Something to ponder..
i think the recent article from Ricky made us able to quantify how to value high risk high return investment decisions...it really has to do with how sure you are on the direction it will go on top of the magnitude of the direction.
This 'sure factor' only belongs to those who have an edge over the others - all boils down to competitive edge.
yeah teach people here how to make 1 mil not a few k only not enough to makan also. everyday wanna eat restaurant not economy rice so a few k not enough....haha
Difference between us and OTB is he is remiser whereas myself, stockmanmy, KC or whoever are not so KYY cannot approach us. In fact I beat OTB in 2013 TKW stock competition using id rlch but why he never mentioned at all.
I am very sure you cannot beat me in term of money made from stock market. This is a fact here, no matter how you twist the story.
Please do your homework before you talk, twist and turn will not earn your respect from readers in I3. I will look down on you if you do not talk with facts and figures especially you bullshit on your strategy.
If you are so good, someone will approach you to help him to make money.
who say bull market cannot lose? many old timers such as my insurance agent told me to buy magnum at 3.16 2 years ago,told me dividend 20cts now he lost over 70k, 100,000 units he bought. I told him don't buy this stock cos many illegal 4d shops mushrooming. he also told me to buy one all mati, country view at 3.00, bjtoto at 3.30, cepat at 1.03, he told me all those are dividend paying counters
Agree. Magnum still lose. So is glove stocks at the moment.
Posted by Apollo Ang > Apr 30, 2017 04:51 PM | Report Abuse who say bull market cannot lose? many old timers such as my insurance agent told me to buy magnum at 3.16
The format change. Unlike 2013 1 not allowed to trade(meaning must own the stocks from 1st Jan until Dec 31st) from 2014 onwards. You can refer to KYY complain about this as well.
Posted by probability > Apr 30, 2017 04:52 PM | Report Abuse limch..after that you stop participating in the yearly competition? why?
those who bought sin stocks,oil stocks,properties and many loss making PN17 counters lost. in 2007 I bought kinsteel at 1.50 200,000 units sold at 56cts only in 2009 now after 10 years if no sell all gone....haha
1 of my old buddy bought mems,akn tech lost over RM 2mil then saw the director when waiting for his appeal at starbucks thought wanna punch him cos swindle all his money now he's broke
Apollo Ang, I'm so sorry to hear all the sad stories, maybe I am lucky last year and this year. Anyway, hope you will win back all your losses in this year, cheers!
I'm sorry to hear about your loss, Apollo. You seem to go through slot. And truly need people like you at i3 to warn and educate youngsters like me to trade carefully.
in fact I spend more than I lost....hahaha.just that now slowdown I just cut down expenses.no regrets lah cos never work b4 and spend like king for so long.i even lost to 4d more than u people lost in stocks.....)
good stocks ( strong Balance Sheet) at low prices (low PE, high NTA)......I hope they don't get anymore Red Chips in Bursa.
good stocks ( strong Balance Sheet) at low prices (low PE, high NTA)......in the majority of cases, they are trading at low PEs, high NTA for a reason......sunset industries, too small and no track record, untrustworthy, not tested, Red chips in Bursa
what about turnarounds? banks? technology stocks? themes? blue chips? growth stocks? ....all these will fall out of OTB radar......
what about the basic requirement of a diversified portfolio with negatively co related characteristics?
what about business, people then only prices?
how about reading the whole Annual Report instead of just the audited accounts?
you really want that kind of radar? really really want that kind of radar?
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
stockmanmy
6,977 posts
Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-04-30 02:24 | Report Abuse
I tell you what, kc
To make money needs guts, self esteem and being right, of course.
No guts no point one.
Should stick to diversification rules aka CFA rules.
As I state in Vitrox forum,
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/0097.jsp
stockmanmy there is no such thing as a guarantee stock or home run stock
but stock market will reward people for risks well taken with X factors and later proven correct.
must read whole AR, not just the audited accounts.
20 formulas and 50 ratios, what I call CPA rules, will not help you to make money if no guts and only read audited accounts.