Posted by calvintaneng > 2017-08-08 18:53 | Report Abuse

Yippy68

All these 3 stocks you mentioned have defensive and growth qualities. I like CBIP for its monopoly on Modipalm

Posted by calvintaneng > 2017-08-08 18:53 | Report Abuse

Enning22

Thks. I too busy posting & doing work in JB to make any call yet

Posted by joetay > 2017-08-08 18:58 | Report Abuse

@enning22,

yup, the big boys r doing cost of production rm1.7k/mt currently on average. once u add in d&a, it will be ard rm1.8-1.9k/mt

the only plantation company that can do ard rm1.5k/mt is up due to its mechanized train tracks.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2017-08-08 19:16 | Report Abuse

Good pls keep sharing

Posted by John Lu > 2017-08-08 19:19 | Report Abuse

224) calvintaneng -1.0% 98958.01 http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/71329.jsp
23% PBA 1.280+0.0225 1.150 17300|22% DUTALND 0.440 0.400 49800|20% OPCOM 0.585 0.600 33200|20% BJCORP 0.330 0.340 58600|16% BPURI 0.340 0.435 45800 (98777.25:180.76|237.24)


LOL...sochai now -1%...hahaha hahaha...talking number 1 but result negative 1..LOL

Posted by John Lu > 2017-08-08 19:44 | Report Abuse

EH, indek 1780, US 22k, Hangseng, Nikkei all OK mah...Shanghai, SGX all also ok...why sochai calvintaneng after 7 months 7 days still losing money at -1%? Everyone earning so much until laughing to the bank...aiyoh...sochai always a sochai...now proven he talk cock number 1 but result negative 1...hahahah

Posted by apolloang > 2017-08-08 19:46 | Report Abuse

itu ranking tak apa lah just like friendly games not champions league final....haha

Posted by John Lu > 2017-08-08 19:50 | Report Abuse

Interesting to know what is his story again in December...now he already use durian musang king, pregnant story...lets wait and see

Posted by rogers123 > 2017-08-08 19:57 | Report Abuse

Calvin: U have done a very good job. Well done! I also bought dutaland and jtiasa n i am willing to keep for 2 years

Posted by John Lu > 2017-08-08 20:00 | Report Abuse

Haha...with 100k

If follow calvinaochai but bjcorp at 50c 4 years ago, now left 66k

If follow Mr OTB, already become 900k in 4 years

Singapore warren buffet so lousy...talking number 1 only

Posted by apolloang > 2017-08-08 20:12 | Report Abuse

OTB gave apa tip can make 900k? OTB how to make 1 million in 1 stock,if u can let me know and I make I give u 100k.....hahaha

Posted by chongyo > 2017-08-08 20:58 | Report Abuse

Joetay, First of all, I NEVER mentioned Potash price is 15-20 years low! I say FERTILIZER price is near 15-20 years low. Potash is just one of the many nutrient/fertilizers required for oil palm. Plantations have to feed the palm with N, P ,K, Mg and B fertilisers to provide balance nutrition. When we look at fertilizer price, we look at the whole basket. That shows how little you know about FERTILIZER and Plantation business.

I must bring you to read the latest United Plantation (UP) financial report 6 months Jan-Jun 2017 which has just been released to Bursa.
UP is a PURE plantation company and a well run one.

Group Sales (6 months) $734 mil
Group PBT $246 mil (33.5% on sales)

That doesn't accurately tell the Gross Margin of Plantations - because UP has Plantation and Refining segment business.

Pls go to note A8) in the published report : Segmental information

Revenue (Plantation) $395 mil
PBT (Plantation) $212 mil (53% of Sales).
In other words, Gross Margin could be as high as 60% to give rise to 53% PBT. Got it ???

Pls go to note B1) in the same report : Analysis of Group Performance 6 months ended 30/6/2017.

Group PBT increased 43.6%. The increase due to higher production, higher CPO and PK (palm kernel) prices and LOWER COST OF PRODUCTION. CPO and PK production increased 22.5-22.1%. COST OF PRODUCTION of CPO and PK drop by 21.6% and 4.1% respectively !

UP don't tell lies, Right ??
Still don't trust me ??

Posted by calvintaneng > 2017-08-08 21:04 | Report Abuse

Thks everyone please keep discussion in a cordial spirit. That's how we will learn more and more.

Posted by enning22 > 2017-08-08 22:14 | Report Abuse

joetay deliberately tried to misled, misinforming others.OR may be he is working in FGV type of establishment, Just to justified their high cost of production.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2017-08-08 22:27 | Report Abuse

enning22,
just give joetay the benefit of a doubt. He might be trying to help and warn against my overexuberance.

Anyway it is a good thing to get brainstormed.

By it we will work even harder to find the truth

Posted by enning22 > 2017-08-08 23:42 | Report Abuse

don't be silly ,i got friends working in major plantations ,working there for many years, they gave me reliable info.if not you check up with MPOC http://www.mpoc.org.my/Palm_Oil_News.aspx

Posted by Stock Kingdom > 2017-08-08 23:58 | Report Abuse

Why want to attack or presume others trying to mislead? Why not discuss with humble heart? It is true for what Calvin has said, brainstorming.

I don't see Joetay was trying to mislead anyone.

I know many plantations in Sabah can still make money with CPO price at 2k, but it does mean what Joetay said was totally wrong.

What Joetay & Enning22 shared about the costing are what Calvin tan lack of, this is facts.

Posted by Stock Kingdom > 2017-08-09 00:00 | Report Abuse

Malaysia Plantations faced all kinds of problems & one of it is labour, this is a structural problem that can never be resolved. Those familiar with palm oil plantations will know this.

Land is another issue, Malaysia land is too expensive, expansion of land bank is financially not workable.

Production yield is another issue, the production per hectare has been stagnant for many years, means this is so much can be produced in a hectare of land, nothing more.

All in all, there will be few factors affecting the profitability of a plantation company:

1. CPO price
2. CPO production
3. Fertilizers

Unless CPO price can go up to more than 3k like those days, it is not an exciting business to me.

Posted by wotvr > 2017-08-09 00:25 | Report Abuse

Don't need to attack. Everyone invest at your own risk. No need to follow anyone's buy call. Use own judgement.



I

Posted by joetay > 2017-08-09 00:25 | Report Abuse

@chongyu,

yes, u did mentioned that fertilizer is at a 15-20 yr lows, so dont deny it.

Posted by chongyo > Aug 7, 2017 08:20 PM | Report Abuse

Joetay, I can see that how badly you are mis-informed about production cost of the efficient plantation! Or is it your deliberation to mis-inform others ?

Fertilizer which make up significant portion of the production cost are near 15-20 years low due to global over supply situation. Hope you can do more research on fertilizer prices trend before you shoot your mouth.

how can fertilizer be at a 15-20 yr low when the main ingredients, potash/urea/phosphate price to be almost double of 2000 level???

i m no expert in fertilizer, but i do know that the main ingredients for fertilizer mixing r potash, urea, phosphate and ammonia sulphate.

i just exposed ur wrong info for pricing.

u know why up can be so efficient? the reason is becos their plantations have train tracks for collection which optimized their efficiency and quality. thereby bring their estimated cost of production to be ard rm1.6k/mt.

have a look at ioi and u a back of hand calculation and their costing is ard rm1.7k/mt currently.

the reason why plantation coys r having 50% gross margin in the previous 6mths is becos of the higher cpo prices, not becos of lower costs. if the price of cpo drops below rm2800/mt, do u think they can still enjoy 50% gross profit?

u r assuming that cpo prices will maintain above rm2800/mt and how confident r u that cpo prices will crawl back above this level in the coming 2 mths and maintain till end this yr????

Posted by joetay > 2017-08-09 00:29 | Report Abuse

@enning22,

if u make money, do i get any?

so what for i tell u false info when u can double check on the info?

and tell me, m i wrong in saying that there is a surplus of cooking oils out there and the 0-profitability of biodiesel?

unlike @calvintaneng who gave us misleading info that biodiesel that will be profitable and hence be a offtake for palm oil.

Posted by joetay > 2017-08-09 00:33 | Report Abuse

@stock kingdom,

plantation biz will not die but it will not fly as well now.

the commodity supercycle is behind us now.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2017-08-09 01:03 | Report Abuse

joetay @enning22,

if u make money, do i get any?

so what for i tell u false info when u can double check on the info?

and tell me, m i wrong in saying that there is a surplus of cooking oils out there and the 0-profitability of biodiesel?

unlike @calvintaneng who gave us misleading info that biodiesel that will be profitable and hence be a offtake for palm oil.
09/08/2017 00:29

joetay,

DID I SAID THAT BIODIESEL WILL BE PROFITABLE?

note this is what i said

6) RISING CRUDE OIL PRICES WILL BENEFIT CPO AS CPO IS USED AS BIODIESEL

The rise of Crude Oil has benefitted Hengyuan & Petron. We see both their share prices chased up.

Unbeknownst to all the Rise of Crude Oil Prices also benefit CPO & Palm Oil Stocks as CPO is also used as Biodiesel.

So it is a matter of time the market will discover this happy corelation.


SEE:

I SAID,

"RISE OF CRUDE OIL PRICES ALSO BENEFIT CPO & PALM OIL STOCKS AS CPO IS ALSO USED AS BIODIESEL"

SO WHERE GOT INFO THAT "BIODIESEL WILL BE PROFITABLE"?

ALTHOUGH BIODIESEL IS MORE EXPENSIVE THAT CRUDE OIL - INDONESIA HAS CHOSEN MORE BIODIESEL USE BECAUSE BIODIESEL IS A CLEANER FUEL.

SO RISE OF CRUDE OIL PRICE DO ENCOURAGE MORE BIODIESEL USAGE. IF CRUDE IS DIRT CHEAP THEN THE INCENTIVE TO USE CPO AS BIODIESEL WILL ALSO DIMINISH

SEE

http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2017/02/04/biodiesel-on-high-demand-as-indonesia-turns-to-cleaner-fuel.html

Posted by joetay > 2017-08-09 01:11 | Report Abuse

my question to all now is this,

if the outlook for plantation stocks r as good as what some here modeled, then why is the klse plantation index lagging the broader index? the plantation index only gained a miserly 1% while the broader klci gained 9% ytd.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2017-08-09 01:15 | Report Abuse

ONE OF THE HIDDEN VALUE IN OIL PALM PLANTATIONS IS THEIR PRECIOUS LANDBANKS ON WHICH THE OIL PALM TREES ARE PLANTED AS A CASH CROP.

I HAVE AN INVESTMENT ANGLE BEYOND JUST FFB & CPO PRODUCTION & SALE

30 TO 40 YEARS AGO IF YOU TRAVEL ALONG THE TRUNK ROADS OF KL & OUTSKIRTS YOU WON'T FAIL TO NOTICE THE WORD "IOI PLANTATIONS" AT MAIN ROAD HIGHWAYS.

NOW MANY OF THESE PLANTATION LANDS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO THRIVING TOWNSHIPS - ONE GOOD EXAMPLE IS THE IOI MALL IN PUCHONG.

THE RISE OF LAND VALUE IN SINGAPORE HAS MADE OIL PALM CULTIVATION LESS VIABLE. BECAUSE LANDS FOR HIGH RISE CONDO/ SHOPS/ OFFICES/ MALLS GIVE MORE MORE VALUE THAN HARVESTING FFB OR CPO.

THAT WAS WHY JCORP TOOK KULIM PRIVATE TO CREATE TOWNSHIPS OF BETTER VALUE.

THE NORTH SOUTH PLUS HIGHWAY HAS ENHANCE THE VALUE OF ALL PLANTATION LANDS ALONG ITS ROUTE.

SAME WILL HAPPEN TO SARAWAK/SABAH WHEN PAN BORNEO HIGHWAY IS BUILT.

Posted by joetay > 2017-08-09 01:16 | Report Abuse

@calvintaneng,

no u didnt.

but ur exact words r

6) Since Crude Oil already up it will pull up biodiesel usage. Right now Indonesia has increased biofuel consumption. And Indonesia has a huge population

thereby implying that biodiesel usage will increase if crude oil prices r up, which is false since at biodiesel is not at all economically profitable at this level.

if u r so bullish on plantations, can u enlighten me on why the plantation index is lagging behind the broader klci index then????

Posted by calvintaneng > 2017-08-09 01:22 | Report Abuse

Posted by joetay > Aug 9, 2017 01:16 AM | Report Abuse

@calvintaneng,

no u didnt.

but ur exact words r

6) Since Crude Oil already up it will pull up biodiesel usage. Right now Indonesia has increased biofuel consumption. And Indonesia has a huge population

thereby implying that biodiesel usage will increase if crude oil prices r up, which is false since at biodiesel is not at all economically profitable at this level.

if u r so bullish on plantations, can u enlighten me on why the plantation index is lagging behind the broader klci index then????

SEE THIS REPORT


PRINTABLE VERSION EMAIL TO A FRIEND RSS FEEDS 13:06 UK, 14th Dec 2016, by Mike Verdin
Oil price rise a boost to veg oil prices - but there are limits, says USDA
The revival in crude oil prices, and a revamp in US fuel mandates, will support vegetable oil markets – but within limits, US officials said, citing soaring imports of biodiesel from the likes of Argentina and Canada.

The rise in oil prices - which at $55.00 a barrel for Brent crude on Wednesday are up 19% in a little over two weeks - and the agreement by producing countries to cut output, which has spurred the rally, "brighten the outlook for biodiesel blending throughout the world", the US Department of Agriculture said.

"Some energy market analysts anticipate that, by early 2017, crude oil prices may top $60 per barrel."

Such developments in turn "support prices for the vegetable oil feedstocks", such as soyoil and palm oil, which are used to produce biodiesel, with demand prospects also supported by last month's move by the US to boost the mandate for blending the fuel into conventional diesel.

The US Environmental Protection Agency set at 2bn gallons the level at which US blenders are obliged to take-up biodiesel next year, up from 1.9bn gallons this year.

The uplift prompted the USDA in its Wasde crop report on Friday to raise by 250m pounds to 6.2bn pounds its forecast for US soyoil consumption in biodiesel in 2016-17, which began in October.

RINs aid

Posted by calvintaneng > 2017-08-09 01:31 | Report Abuse

There is a corelation between Crude Oil/ Shale Oil & Biodiesel/ Palm OIl

Last round I saw US Shale Oil hammering crude oil. I saw further that they will hammer biodiesel usage which will lead to a collapse of Palm Oil.

I warned Uncle KYY to sell his JTiasa at Rm2.60 then. And true enough Jtiasa crashed more than 50% to Rm1.15


Posted by calvintaneng > Nov 28, 2014 12:36 AM | Report Abuse X

From now onward very bleak, shale oil hammering crude and biodiesel oil. All oil & gas and all palm oil counters will be hit hard.
And if crude falls to $30 a barrel Malaysia itself might be in deep trouble.

This is the time for extreme caution.

Posted by joetay > 2017-08-09 01:32 | Report Abuse

@calvintaneng,

since u would like to look at the plantation play from a property perspective, then i will discuss with u from a property perspective.

i agree with u that some of the plantation lands near local 1st tier cities such as kl-klang/jb/penang r valuable, but do u think the demand is able to take in the supply?

there is a glut of properties in kl-klang and jb regions currently. if u been visiting the johor iskander-medini-forest city region, u would have noticed the low or near-0 takeup rate. in kl-klang, there is visible slow down and takeup rates even in kl city itself.

so do u think plantation play is a st play like what u have been saying here?

by ur train of thots, ur plantation play will become a property play which will take several yrs to play out. not the 1-2 yr play that u have been implying.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2017-08-09 01:41 | Report Abuse

Posted by joetay > Aug 9, 2017 01:16 AM | Report Abuse

@calvintaneng,

if u r so bullish on plantations, can u enlighten me on why the plantation index is lagging behind the broader klci index then????

Calvin replies:

The index of plantation stocks are still lagging because they still think that things are in status quo.

CPO prices were low & production were down last 2 years.

So that was in the past. Mr. Market is still using THE PAST AS A REFERENCE.

Lately,

1) Prices of CPO has increased by 20 to 25%
2) Fruit yield has increased by 20% to 30% (it varies)
3) Exports of Palm related products in June 2017 increased by 16% compared to E&E goods which increased by only 15.1%. So overall Palm related products have come out top

Why then index of plantation stocks still lack Klci index?

HA!!

THIS IS THE REASON WHY CALVIN WHO SEES FIRST TURNS BULLISH FIRST!!

REMEMBER THIS

1) THE EAGLE SEES FIRST
2) THEN FOLLOWED BY OTHER FLYING BIRDS
3) THE CHICKEN ON THE GROUND SEES NOTHING AT ALL UNTIL TOO LATE


CALVIN SAW JAKS' POTENTIAL AT 40 SEN!
OTHER SIFUs SAW JAKS POTENTIAL BETWEEN 70 SEN TO RM1.20
THE NAIVE SORCHAI ONLY SEE JAKS POTENTIAL ABOVE RM1.60 (TOO LATE!)

Posted by joetay > 2017-08-09 01:41 | Report Abuse

@calvintaneng,

dont give me a dec2016 report.

and the report is bs anyway since we all know that crude oil prices collapse back below usd50/bbl not long after and is now struggling to maintain above 50.

if an analyst report can be trusted, why do i even bother doing my own research?

sbo dropped from 37.5 to its current 34 ytd, so where is the boom the report is talking abt????

Posted by joetay > 2017-08-09 01:47 | Report Abuse

i dont even need u or any gs analysts to tell me this since i alrdy knew us shale oil will be hammering any opec+non-opec production cuts.

reason: the production cost of shale oil has dropped dramatically over the past 2 yrs.

i bet u dont even know the production cost for shale oil now, but i do so thats why i shot the fm that recommended me to buy lukoil on the spot way back in jan 2017.

Posted by calvintaneng > Aug 9, 2017 01:31 AM | Report Abuse

There is a corelation between Crude Oil/ Shale Oil & Biodiesel/ Palm OIl

Last round I saw US Shale Oil hammering crude oil. I saw further that they will hammer biodiesel usage which will lead to a collapse of Palm Oil.

I warned Uncle KYY to sell his JTiasa at Rm2.60 then. And true enough Jtiasa crashed more than 50% to Rm1.15


Posted by calvintaneng > Nov 28, 2014 12:36 AM | Report Abuse X

From now onward very bleak, shale oil hammering crude and biodiesel oil. All oil & gas and all palm oil counters will be hit hard.
And if crude falls to $30 a barrel Malaysia itself might be in deep trouble.

This is the time for extreme caution.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2017-08-09 01:50 | Report Abuse

Posted by joetay > Aug 9, 2017 01:32 AM | Report Abuse

@calvintaneng,

since u would like to look at the plantation play from a property perspective, then i will discuss with u from a property perspective.

i agree with u that some of the plantation lands near local 1st tier cities such as kl-klang/jb/penang r valuable, but do u think the demand is able to take in the supply?

there is a glut of properties in kl-klang and jb regions currently. if u been visiting the johor iskander-medini-forest city region, u would have noticed the low or near-0 takeup rate. in kl-klang, there is visible slow down and takeup rates even in kl city itself.

so do u think plantation play is a st play like what u have been saying here?

by ur train of thots, ur plantation play will become a property play which will take several yrs to play out. not the 1-2 yr play that u have been implying.

Joe,

I bought UMW in year 2004 (13 years) and still keeping it.
To me what is worth investing is worth my time & money.

My family owns a shop in KL since year 1970. We bought it for Rm18,000

Current rent is Rm3,500 a month or Rm42k a year.

So the longer you look at your investment horizon the better you will be.

Warren Buffet believes in investing for forever.

One more thing.

Not all plantation lands are equal. So you must follow Phil Fisher's scuttlebut example of going there and see first hand if possible.

Today, with google stree view things are getting easier.

All the knowledge out there is within grasp if we spend time finding out

Posted by calvintaneng > 2017-08-09 01:53 | Report Abuse

I bought KULIM because of its precious land banks most in iskandar

see my buy call at Rm2.50
JCorp took Kulim private at Rm4.10 for 60% upside

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/2003.jsp

Posted by calvintaneng > 2017-08-09 01:57 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by joetay > 2017-08-09 02:08 | Report Abuse

@calvintaneng,


1) cpo price is below the jan 2017 high of rm3.2k/mt.

2) second half of the yr is when ffb production picks up. thus u see an increased in ffb yields.

3) china is in the midst of summer, thus they use more palm than sbo for cooking. the situation reverses after china enters autumn.

what r u talking abt cpo prices being low in the last 2 yrs???

cpo prices is in an uptrend in 2016 reaching 3200 by jan 2017 while production is lower in 2016 due to tree stress after good production in 2015.


go read up more on the statistics b4 saying verifiable info.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2017-08-09 02:11 | Report Abuse

Joetay

It's 2a.m. now.

Nice talking to you.

I expect to SEE GOOD RESULTS FOR OIL PALM STOCKS IN AUGUST & NOVEMBER 2017 REPORTS

I LOOK FORWARD TO BUYING MORE OVERLOOKED UNDERVALUED PALM OIL COUNTERS FIRST THING TOMORROW MORNING

NOW IS THE TIME TO SWITCH MORE OF MY STOCKS INTO PALM OIL COUNTERS

SEE YOU TOMORROW

GOOD NIGHT TO JOE AND ALL STILL READING THIS

GOOOOOOODDD NIGHT!!!


ZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzz,,,,,,,................

Posted by joetay > 2017-08-09 02:18 | Report Abuse

@calvintaneng,

buying a shop for rm18k back in 1970 was a time when polisman r still wearing shorts, so dont give me that lt bs.

if u sell out that shop now, do u think u can buy back a similar shop near the location for a cheaper price, assuming that the shop has no black marks that can depress its value, and lock in a decent 20% profit immediately? it is all abt the timing, so what is the lt u r talking abt?

it is the same thing for warren buffet, it is all abt the timing and the biz potential.

if coca cola didnt move with the time or is operationally efficient, do u think warren buffet wont offload it in a jiff?

Posted by joetay > 2017-08-09 02:28 | Report Abuse

why not i share with u mine then.

i bot bioosmo at 4sen in sep2016 and sold it at 8sen in july.

i got greedy and wanted to exit at 16, but it didnt come.

this is what 100% return is all abt.

u take abt 1 yr to realize a 40% gain while i took 10 mths to realize a 100% gain, this is call efficient use of capital.

and since u only said u call for a buy, r u a analyst or did u really buy it then?

Posted by calvintaneng > Aug 9, 2017 01:57 AM | Report Abuse

I bought TMakmur for its landbanks, bauxide under its lands, its oil palm plantations and the trouble they took to rear livestocks within their plantations

I called for a buy on TMakmur at Rm1.38

Pahang Sultan took TMakmur private at Rm1.90 for about upside

http://eaglevisioninvest.com/tanah-makmur-land-of-prosperity/

Posted by chongyo > 2017-08-09 07:09 | Report Abuse

Calvin, I like your patience with Joetay. Hahaha ...

Posted by joetay > 2017-08-09 08:32 | Report Abuse

@chongyu,

i expose ur misleading info on the info on potash not being at at 15-20 yr low. u tell me that u r talking abt fertilizer mixture, but after i expose u that the main ingredients of fertilizer mixture not being at 15-20 yr low, u choose to be radio silence on this issue. so what do u think of ur credibility???

i m able to give rebuts to @calvintaneng, but he is just give me a bunch of bs on reports and divert into telling me grandparent stories on properties, which i rebutted him again. then he tell me he gave good call on tanah makmur which is a 40% return in 1 yr. thinking that he is good. i bot bioosmo and had a 100% gain in 8-10mths. so who is better???

now, tell me, do u think he gave a good buy story based on the few points he highlighted?

if the weather is as bad as what @calvintaneng has been saying in this thread, prices of cbot sbo would have broken 36 by now but no, it went up to 35.5 in late july and is now down at slightly above 34.

if biodiesel offtake in indo is so well so far this yr as he is implying, then why is cpo price trending downward from the start of the yr?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2017-08-09 08:57 | Report Abuse

Good morning,
Chongyo,
I would rather see more Joetay post rebuttal with ideas than to see brainless John Lu repeating nonsense or patron prating like a pet parrot.

Haha.

Yes Joe,
You slept later than me and got up earlier also.
I see your passion here.

Now, there is still a surplus store of soy bean from last year in Brazil and Argentina as well as there is still left over surplus cpo in both Malaysia and Indonesia.

The ongoing drought in the High Plains of USA will impact and melt away some of these surpluses.

The fluctuating prices of soy oil and CPO are due to the drought on one hand and the stored surplus release on the other hand.

But prices of CPO if maintained above Rm2,500 a ton i know all oversold Plantation stocks are now worth considering.

Consumer stocks are impacted by GST and high inflation of imported goods due to weak ringgit.
Many construction stocks, construction material stocks and logistic stocks are up by 100% to 200%

E&E stocks like penta has done excellently. Oil refiners like hengyuan and petron are up like crazy.

So i see all plantation stocks as a group is still cheap comparatively.

And my motto is

HE THAT IS LOW NEEDS FEAR NO FALL.

STOCKS LIKE FRONKEN CAN SUDDENLY FALL BY 20% TO 30%.

I SEE OIL PALM STOCKS NOW QUITE STABLE AND WON'T FALL MUCH.

AND WITH DOWNSIDE WELL TAKEN CARE OF WE NOW LOOK FOR AN UPSIDE.

Posted by joetay > 2017-08-09 09:10 | Report Abuse

@calvintaneng,

one has to get up to see market opening and digest overnite news to trade for the day.

now u r making sense that plantation counters r undervalued compared to other sectors, but is it a time for buy on the sector just becos it is undervalued comparatively?

the premises u based on r rather flimsy or out-of-sync from the ground.

whether one likes it or not, but the super commodity cycle is now over. so will a commodity-related stocks boom again in a thematic play?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2017-08-09 09:21 | Report Abuse

i don't look at supercycle for commodity alone.

i see exports of cpo is up in both volume and in sustained prices above rm2,500 a ton.

so i expect next 2 quarters palm oil counters should report better results.

and i am happy with that. at least there won't be much surprise on the downside.

the same cannot be said for other stocks which are slowly dropping every week

Posted by joetay > 2017-08-09 09:38 | Report Abuse

@calvintaneng,

u r contradicting urself.

if there is no supercycle/ strong upcycle or a strong thematic story as seen currently to support, there is no way plantation-related stocks can give a minimum 25% in a yr.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2017-08-09 10:44 | Report Abuse

joe,
don't read beyond what i stated


i didn't say there is no supercycle. the words are i don't look at supercycle alone.

i see more than that. i see immediate good results just ahead of us.

so pls read my words caeefully in its context

Posted by Stock Kingdom > 2017-08-09 13:56 | Report Abuse

joetay, just move on lah, you have done enough to alert others about plantations.

We both know it won't die but it won't fly either.

Many years ago when Indonesia about to overtake Malaysia as largest palm oil planted country, i knew it was gone case already. I think many knows that.

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2017-08-09 14:12 | Report Abuse

Plantations are like any other business impacted or effected by supply and deand. CPO is a edible oil compecting in the global oil market ( against Soyoil, rape , sunflower and corn etc ) China is buying big volume of Soy Meals to crush for their animal feed. CPO is only imported as a cheaper alternative cooking oil.

EC and North America prefer their own oil seeds eg corn , rape and sunflower ). Quality wise ( CPO has always rank highly against other competing oils ) Sadly CPO is only a price follower not a marker

Palm flaw is the clouldy nature during winter ( colder temperature )times. This is the reason why palm Bio-diesel ncan only be used in the summer not in temperate countries.

Similary CPO is imported in the southern and coastal districs of China. Whereas the interior or Eastern side still prefer Soy-oil. The only price advantage of Palm is cheap. Cheaper alternative compared to Soy oil. App US 100- 120 per tonne cheaper

EC ( NGO ) has targeted CPO for many years. The Malaysia government and Indonesia has not able galavanised support to drum up against the anti Palm lobby. They are targeting palm ( taking away their sahre of market ) Western NGO and WWW have hidden agendas

Posted by calvintaneng > 2017-08-09 14:41 | Report Abuse

What Jonathan said is mostly correct.

With growing populations and climate change the demand for vege oil can only increase.

As Malaysia industrialise more oil palm lands will be converted to malls, shops, factories and houses. So with scarcity will come higher prices.

Take durian for example. In my youth my brother would go to Gombak and bought a whole basket of XO y durians for only Rm25. Today one kg can cost more than a whole basket load.

The demand from the middle easten nations, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh should increase as well.

As more people are aware of the goodness of palm oil the resistance will have to give way. Chinese by the millions visit Malaysia every year. If they have tasted food made with palm oil they will learn to accept it.

Old Town coffee, with palm oil, is already a hit in China. In Europe, Hazel Nut spread with palm oil has gained wide acceptance.

Being the lowest vege oil palm will always be around.

I visited palm oil clusters in tg langsat. Here i saw factories producing food, soap and others in huge quantities from palm oil.

Posted by wendycwl > 2017-08-09 14:48 | Report Abuse

can someone recommend top 3 plantation stocks worth buying now?bplant or dutaland?