Posted by FutureEyes > 2018-02-22 19:30 | Report Abuse

My latest article above - following recent release of PetronM results for Q4 2017.

Posted by FutureEyes > 2018-02-22 19:35 | Report Abuse

Some of the useful links above are placed here again for easier accessibility:


COLUMN-U.S. crude oil exports to Asia soar, complicating OPEC's efforts: Russell

https://www.reuters.com/article/column-russell-crude-asia-idAFL3N1NJ17M

"Imports from Malaysia are up 500 percent, those from Britain by 95 percent and from the Republic of Congo by 459 percent."



COLUMN-Forties pipeline outage is a gift to U.S. oil exporters, others: Russell

https://www.reuters.com/article/column-russell-crude-asia/column-forties-pipeline-outage-is-a-gift-to-u-s-oil-exporters-others-russell-idUSL3N1OC1YP

This widened the premium of front-month Brent over WTI CL-LCO1=R to $6.74 a barrel, up from $4.76 as recently as Nov. 24. The spread is closing in on the $7.07 touched in September when Hurricane Harvey knocked out U.S. Gulf Coast refineries, temporarily cutting crude demand.

The blowout of the Brent-WTI spread in September saw a flood of U.S. crude head toward Asia, with vessel-tracking data showing that top global crude buyer China imported a record 293,000 bpd in November.


Please refer the price difference between Brent and WTI for Q4 2017 as per below:

https://ycharts.com/indicators/brent_wti_spread

Posted by probability > 2018-02-22 21:13 | Report Abuse

Just a simple common sense activity:

Check the Q1 2017 Mogas crack spread, and reported Diesel Margin from any reference in the world wide web.....

Also check the Q1 2017 price changes on Crude Oil (Brent) during this period..its nothing!

Compare the above two information with "what you think they are" based on your own judgement and data you can find for Q4 2017.

I can tell you the margins are at least 35% higher for Petrol and Diesel is at least 40% higher and Inventory gains is 100% higher compared to Q1 2017.

Just try mucking up the Gross Profit of Q1 2017 by 35% assuming the same 35% on inventory gain. This would give a gross profit of
395M x 1.35 = 533M
PBT = 413M
PAT (assuming 25%) = 309M (EPS exceeds RM 1.00)

There is absolutely no reason for its gross margin to be any lower than that!

Unlike of course PetronM which had phenomenal Fuel Oil crack spread during the early 2017!

Posted by siradrian > 2018-02-22 21:15 | Report Abuse

Luckily i3 still got analysts like you. Otherwise the average Joe won't know where the ship is heading.

Posted by Halite > 2018-02-22 21:51 | Report Abuse

very misleading article

why ?

1. the is a comparison of a complex refinery and a simple refinery, not Petronm and Hengyuan
2. you should compare hengyuan with another company which business model is the same, that is refinery alone
3. Hengyuan is doing refinery alone , nothing else. but petronm has refinery , petrol stations, petrochemical and land asset
4. only emphasize on the efficiency of complex refinery over the simple refinery ,how about volatility of crude oil and other risks factors that affect the profit margin are not touched at all. so it is very unfair and biased.

conclusion:

very irresponsible and misleading article

Posted by Halite > 2018-02-22 21:59 | Report Abuse

siradrian :Luckily i3 still got analysts like you. Otherwise the average Joe won't know where the ship is heading.

this is just a cut and paste of information about a complex refinery and simple refinery as a comparison , nothing is mentioned about the risk that affect the profit .
what have you learnt?
complex refinery is more efficient than a simple one . my son 15 still in the secondary school also know that

Posted by ctooi > 2018-02-22 22:00 | Report Abuse

there are so much promotion on HengYuen..if promotion stop what do think the price will be?

Posted by stockraider > 2018-02-22 22:05 | Report Abuse

Promotion bcos hengyuan is undervalue loh....!!

Hengyuan PE 4x, Petdag PE 8x, Petdag PE 16x, China Petroleum PE 11.7x, Phillip PE 22x, Petron Pe 8x, Nestle PE 42x.

HENGYUAN is a world champion stock eps Rm 3.40 exceed NESTLE Rm 2.75 mah...!!

Posted by Halite > 2018-02-22 22:07 | Report Abuse

who doesn't know motorcycle can run faster than bicycle ?
but
how about other things that will help you to arrive at a right decision of which transportation to use?

why motorcycle is better than bicycle ?
why bicycle with the combination of other alternatives can be better than motorcycle ?

Posted by Halite > 2018-02-22 22:08 | Report Abuse

the main issue is sustainability of profit not EPS



posted by deMusangking > Feb 22, 2018 10:03 PM | Report Abuse

Halite, just too bad for u when u have Petronm and no Hengyuan!!!! you stress that Hengyuan is doing refinery alone , nothing else. but petronm has refinery , petrol stations, petrochemical and land asset

whatever lah, the bottom line is EPS!!!!!! see who is better!!!!!

pls dont cry when Hengyuan QR is out!!!!!

kikikikiki

Posted by stockraider > 2018-02-22 22:10 | Report Abuse

hengyuan has shown consistent strong eps sustainability since 2015....so strong its earnings that it even exceed nestle in 2017 loh...!!


Posted by Halite > Feb 22, 2018 10:08 PM | Report Abuse

the main issue is sustainability of profit not EPS

posted by deMusangking > Feb 22, 2018 10:03 PM | Report Abuse

Halite, just too bad for u when u have Petronm and no Hengyuan!!!! you stress that Hengyuan is doing refinery alone , nothing else. but petronm has refinery , petrol stations, petrochemical and land asset

whatever lah, the bottom line is EPS!!!!!! see who is better!!!!!

pls dont cry when Hengyuan QR is out!!!!!

kikikikiki

Posted by Halite > 2018-02-22 22:11 | Report Abuse

agree, this is a fair comment for short term , not for long term

no one will stop you promoting hengyuan
but,if you are sharing misleading information or making not appropriate comparison , the the story is different


Posted by stockraider > Feb 22, 2018 10:05 PM | Report Abuse

Promotion bcos hengyuan is undervalue loh....!!

Hengyuan PE 4x, Petdag PE 8x, Petdag PE 16x, China Petroleum PE 11.7x, Phillip PE 22x, Petron Pe 8x, Nestle PE 42x.

HENGYUAN is a world champion stock eps Rm 3.40 exceed NESTLE Rm 2.75 mah...!!

Posted by Halite > 2018-02-22 22:14 | Report Abuse

Hengyuan does not show consistent earning

Q1 2017 , eps =93 cent
But Q2 2017, eps = 28

do you call that consistent ?

Posted by stockraider > Feb 22, 2018 10:10 PM | Report Abuse

hengyuan has shown consistent strong eps sustainability since 2015....so strong its earnings that it even exceed nestle in 2017 loh...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2018-02-22 22:15 | Report Abuse

Below is a proper analysis of short term & longterm loh;



Short term

NESTLE PE 42x v Hengyuan PE 4x loh....!!

Longterm;

Nestle PE 25x v Hengyuan pe 12x loh....!!

agree, this is a fair comment for short term , not for long term

no one will stop you promoting hengyuan
but,if you are sharing misleading information or making not appropriate comparison , the the story is different


Posted by stockraider > Feb 22, 2018 10:05 PM | Report Abuse

Promotion bcos hengyuan is undervalue loh....!!

Hengyuan PE 4x, Petdag PE 8x, Petdag PE 16x, China Petroleum PE 11.7x, Phillip PE 22x, Petron Pe 8x, Nestle PE 42x.

HENGYUAN is a world champion stock eps Rm 3.40 exceed NESTLE Rm 2.75 mah...!!

Posted by Halite > 2018-02-22 22:17 | Report Abuse

you better read my comment carefully!!!!



Posted by deMusangking > Feb 22, 2018 10:13 PM | Report Abuse

to u bicycle is better than a motor car?
ur analogy is really 'out of the road'; ur analysis is simplistic at best! just show ur lack of analytical prowess to discuss!!

kekekekekekke


Posted by Halite > Feb 22, 2018 10:07 PM | Report Abuse X

who doesn't know motorcycle can run faster than bicycle ?
but
how about other things that will help you to arrive at a right decision of which transportation to use?

why motorcycle is better than bicycle ?
why bicycle with the combination of other alternatives can be better than motorcycle ?

Posted by trulyinvest > 2018-02-22 22:20 | Report Abuse

Totaly agree,with halite.. speculator quickily come out to give this kind of comparison to minimise,the,sell down of hrc tomorow due,to the efect of petronm

Posted by stockraider > 2018-02-22 22:21 | Report Abuse

just mark GEneral Raider words....tomorrow Petron going up...not down loh.....!!

Posted by trulyinvest > Feb 22, 2018 10:20 PM | Report Abuse

Totaly agree,with halite.. speculator quickily come out to give this kind of comparison to minimise,the,sell down of hrc tomorow due,to the efect of petronm

Posted by Halite > 2018-02-22 22:22 | Report Abuse

is this your definition of long term and short term

has Nestle anything to do with Hengyuan ?
based on what logic you compare hengyuan with Nestle , Just PE of Ahmah and ah Chong .
why not Ahmad with Ali
ah chong with Ah seng ?




Posted by stockraider > Feb 22, 2018 10:15 PM | Report Abuse

Below is a proper analysis of short term & longterm loh;



Short term

NESTLE PE 42x v Hengyuan PE 4x loh....!!

Longterm;

Nestle PE 25x v Hengyuan pe 12x loh....!!

agree, this is a fair comment for short term , not for long term

no one will stop you promoting hengyuan
but,if you are sharing misleading information or making not appropriate comparison , the the story is different


Posted by stockraider > Feb 22, 2018 10:05 PM | Report Abuse

Promotion bcos hengyuan is undervalue loh....!!

Hengyuan PE 4x, Petdag PE 8x, Petdag PE 16x, China Petroleum PE 11.7x, Phillip PE 22x, Petron Pe 8x, Nestle PE 42x.

HENGYUAN is a world champion stock eps Rm 3.40 exceed NESTLE Rm 2.75 mah...!!

Posted by Halite > 2018-02-22 22:24 | Report Abuse

Agree.
we want both Petronm and Hengyuan going up tomorrow


Posted by stockraider > Feb 22, 2018 10:21 PM | Report Abuse

just mark GEneral Raider words....tomorrow Petron going up...not down loh.....!!

Posted by Whey Whey > 2018-02-22 22:24 | Report Abuse

If u think this article is misleading please provide ur own analysis and fact to support ur words and not just talk cock over here. Lol

Posted by Halite > 2018-02-22 22:26 | Report Abuse

are you forcing me to agree with you



Posted by deMusangking > Feb 22, 2018 10:21 PM | Report Abuse

Halite, consistency is the key word only if profits are high!!! what for having consistency with low profits!!! maybe u dont study statistics!!!


from ur analysis, i can deduce u dont have the analtyical mind to make comparison!

Posted by trulyinvest > 2018-02-22 22:26 | Report Abuse

Petronm result is not fantastic.. it lacks,d wow factor... so no positive surprise to chase high.. no makor sell down is consider lucky.. div anounced is,oredi discounted as previous year oso anounced dividen.. extra 3 sen dividen for a rm12 stock is not tat atractive.. unless the extra 30 or 50 sen dividen

Posted by pjseow > 2018-02-22 22:27 | Report Abuse

In Malaysia , the 3 largest petrol retailing business are Shell Petrol Retailing , Petronas Dagangan and Petron . Why compare Petron with Hengyuan instead of Petron with PetDag ? Petron 's 3 year eps from 2015 to 2017 were 82 sen, 90sen and 150 sen which are superbed . Petronas Dagangan eps for 2015 was 79.5 sen , 95 sen and 127 sen ( 3 qtrs ) .
Petronm share price is half of Petronas Dagangan although the eps were quite close .

Posted by Halite > 2018-02-22 22:28 | Report Abuse

did you read the reasons I had given earlier


do not make me think that you blind or purposely refuse to understand any reason I had already given to say the article is misleading !




Posted by Whey Whey > Feb 22, 2018 10:24 PM | Report Abuse

If u think this article is misleading please provide ur own analysis and fact to support ur words and not just talk cock over here. Lol

Posted by Whey Whey > 2018-02-22 22:30 | Report Abuse

What kind of reason is that that without figure or fact support etc? U only complaining without any fact to support ur words.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2018-02-22 22:30 | Report Abuse

Petronm is still undervalued, there is still a growth in 2017.

I agreed Hengyuan is better than Petronm based on facts and figures especially EPS and PER.

How many stock in KLSE has a PER < 5, net profit > 1 billion RM and EPS > 3.50.
Please quote one and compare.

Posted by stockraider > 2018-02-22 22:30 | Report Abuse

General raider would love to compare Petron with Petdag but ....petdag no refinery loh....!!

Posted by Halite > 2018-02-22 22:32 | Report Abuse

any wow factor for petdag now selling at RM25.5 ?




Posted by trulyinvest > Feb 22, 2018 10:26 PM | Report Abuse

Petronm result is not fantastic.. it lacks,d wow factor... so no positive surprise to chase high.. no makor sell down is consider lucky.. div anounced is,oredi discounted as previous year oso anounced dividen.. extra 3 sen dividen for a rm12 stock is not tat atractive.. unless the extra 30 or 50 sen dividen

Posted by trulyinvest > 2018-02-22 22:33 | Report Abuse

Cannot compare petron with petdag... one is petronas one is filipino.. no reason to explain tat.. tis is malaysia

Posted by trulyinvest > 2018-02-22 22:34 | Report Abuse

No,wow factor for petdag oso.. no need to argue,tat bcos petdag is,owned by petronas.. tis is,malaysia

Posted by Halite > 2018-02-22 22:35 | Report Abuse

I feel this question sounds very pandai
I think WB also can give you a satisfactory answer

Posted by deMusangking > Feb 22, 2018 10:31 PM | Report Abuse

u STRESS that Hengyuan is doing refinery alone , nothing else. but petronm has refinery , petrol stations, petrochemical and land asset

yes, i believe u... but y is that EPS for Hengyuan is better ?

Posted by Whey Whey > 2018-02-22 22:36 | Report Abuse

I ask u to provide the fact and figures and u can't even give one. What u doing here is just keep arguing with everyone like tin kosong.

Posted by trulyinvest > 2018-02-22 22:38 | Report Abuse

Same,thing like lctitan with pchem.. y pchem can,fetch a higher pe than lctitan? Same thing.. no need to explain.. pchem is owned by petronas.. tis us malaysia

Posted by Halite > 2018-02-22 22:39 | Report Abuse

Posted by Halite > Feb 22, 2018 10:38 PM | Report Abuse X

you are right
but petdag is selling at RM 25
and Petronm has both refinery and retailing but selling at RM12

do you see something shining here ?



Posted by stockraider > Feb 22, 2018 10:30 PM | Report Abuse

General raider would love to compare Petron with Petdag but ....petdag no refinery loh....!!

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2018-02-22 22:41 | Report Abuse

FutureEyes did a good job to predict the earning very accurately for both Hengyuan and Petronm.

It is not fair to attack him.
I have my fullest respect on him.

Posted by Halite > 2018-02-22 22:44 | Report Abuse

please read in Contonese

CHOY-NIE-DOU-GONG

Please read in Mandarin
睬你都傻

Posted by Whey Whey > Feb 22, 2018 10:36 PM | Report Abuse

I ask u to provide the fact and figures and u can't even give one. What u doing here is just keep arguing with everyone like tin kosong.

Posted by Halite > 2018-02-22 22:45 | Report Abuse

this is the proof that you are very interested



Posted by deMusangking > Feb 22, 2018 10:42 PM | Report Abuse

Halite , iif u cant furnish ur argument with facts and fiqures as trulyinvest has said, i think no body will be interested in ur arguments!!! a longkang cleaner can also do that!

Posted by Halite > 2018-02-22 22:46 | Report Abuse

Posted by Halite > Feb 22, 2018 09:51 PM | Report Abuse X

very misleading article

why ?

1. the is a comparison of a complex refinery and a simple refinery, not Petronm and Hengyuan
2. you should compare hengyuan with another company which business model is the same, that is refinery alone
3. Hengyuan is doing refinery alone , nothing else. but petronm has refinery , petrol stations, petrochemical and land asset
4. only emphasize on the efficiency of complex refinery over the simple refinery ,how about volatility of crude oil and other risks factors that affect the profit margin are not touched at all. so it is very unfair and biased.

conclusion:

very irresponsible and misleading article

Posted by Halite > 2018-02-22 22:49 | Report Abuse

you know better, i am not zhuge_liang


Posted by deMusangking > Feb 22, 2018 10:47 PM | Report Abuse

Halite,would u say Zhuge_Liang's view is biased since he likes the article?

Posted by Whey Whey > 2018-02-22 22:50 | Report Abuse

Haha cannot win an argument so don't dare to even answer me anymore. Seriously just a idiot ROFL

Posted by Halite > 2018-02-22 22:52 | Report Abuse

Posted by Halite > Feb 22, 2018 10:51 PM | Report Abuse X

the auntie stay next door of me also had predicted the 4 ekor first prize correctly last week
do you want to follow her to buy more



Posted by Zhuge_Liang > Feb 22, 2018 10:41 PM | Report Abuse

FutureEyes did a good job to predict the earning very accurately for both Hengyuan and Petronm.

It is not fair to attack him.
I have my fullest respect on him.

Posted by Whey Whey > 2018-02-22 22:52 | Report Abuse

Please la halite aka aseng aka xuewen and many more ur other clone id name. Just because u sold ur Hengyuan already so now attacking HY now? Hahaha

Posted by Halite > 2018-02-22 22:53 | Report Abuse

hahaha....

Posted by Halite > 2018-02-22 22:56 | Report Abuse

I wish I can reply all the comment you post

but some comments are so pandai , I need time to think to give a good reply

SABAR (patient)

Posted by mmk79 > 2018-02-22 23:03 | Report Abuse

Good job FutureEyes. Very informative and thanks for sharing this article.

Posted by Halite > 2018-02-22 23:07 | Report Abuse

INFORMATIVE ABOUT A COMPLEX REFINERY COMPARE WITH A SIMPLE REFINERY .

PLEASE CORRET THE TITLE

IT IS VERY MISLEADING

Posted by Whey Whey > 2018-02-22 23:10 | Report Abuse

You should call him XUEWEN now hahaha


deMusangking
1299 posts
Posted by deMusangking > Feb 22, 2018 11:08 PM | Report Abuse

Halite, remember many moons ago, i said u never use ur head but use only ur mouth to talk? and u always said u have to refer to ur sifu!!???? so i need to be sabar!!! and i understand y i have to saber!


hahahahahaha

Posted by Halite > 2018-02-22 23:11 | Report Abuse

let's stop sharing misleading information.
I am not new to Hengyuan and Petronm
when I was talking about Hengyuan and Petronm with my good friends Stockraider and Probability , many of you including future eye still no where to be found

Posted by Halite > 2018-02-22 23:14 | Report Abuse

other than personal attacks, there are still many ways we can communicate better.

Posted by Halite > 2018-02-22 23:16 | Report Abuse

if do not feel what you are saying is despicable, then i do not think there are people who can help you to talk better