7 people like this.

60 comment(s). Last comment by TakeProfits 2018-10-05 21:41

soojinhou

876 posts

Posted by soojinhou > 2018-10-01 22:02 | Report Abuse

Hambantota Port is also financed with Chinese money. Look what happened to it? It's suicidal to believe that the project will be profitable just because Chinese banks fund it. Chinese banks are state owned and are extensions of the communist party of China. They may have other consideration other than profit.

Sslee

10,110 posts

Posted by Sslee > 2018-10-01 22:28 | Report Abuse

Dear all,
Sound like the old Malaysia Alibaba business model. Baba do all the jobs and Ali get 30% by doing nothing except pulling string/entitlement. But this time China JV partner is the Baba and Jaks is Ali. Too good to be true.
Thank you

zhen wei & JP

1,099 posts

Posted by zhen wei & JP > 2018-10-01 22:36 | Report Abuse

This is a serious bussiness.
the cost to maintain for 25 years .....

take a look at thailand Coal fired plant.

qqq3

13,755 posts

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-01 22:40 | Report Abuse

This KC kick up a fuss and at the end concluded he got no conclusion..... lol

qqq3

13,755 posts

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-01 22:43 | Report Abuse

that is actually quite typical of people who got no balls to commit but interested in showing off or kicking up a fuss.

DK66

4,258 posts

Posted by DK66 > 2018-10-01 22:45 | Report Abuse

Allow me to put the figures right for “Why Jaks”;

1. The project is 75% debt. Hence, the loan provided is US$1.402b (about RM5.6b) not RM7.76b.

2. Jaks paid upfront cash of US$51m for 30% in JV with future capital commitment of US$110m. So, not free of charge.

3. The Net assets per share as at 30 June 2018 is RM1.47 and is inclusive of investment in JV.

valuelurker

1,132 posts

Posted by valuelurker > 2018-10-01 22:48 | Report Abuse

You everyday harp on the same thing people will say you're a nag old man kcchong

You believe DK66 and say he's knowledgeable, so believing those facts, and inputting those numbers into your spreadsheet, that should give you the NPV - 'IRR 12% is to Project, therefore Equity is 30%++'

Instead you revert back to your 'common sense' and disregard the model, the theory, the maths, the thought process...

Youre like the scientist who has a hypothesis, runs the experiment, and the results do not conform to his hypothesis, then proceeds to disregard the test results and sticks to his hypothesis because thats what his 'gut' tells him - yeah way to go scientific advancement lol. Next time when you cannot prove or disprove something, dont go and tell the world you agree/disagree with someone - youre just like another one of those who are going to mislead people

Old man koon has access to management, he's substantial shareholder - at the start he was touting the massive 'construction profits', wanting to con the masses with the 'massive construction profits' and then it first proposed that the profits are not real, he now pivots to 'the 30% share in he IPP is free' - in that whole time, he has never mentioned anything about the yearly cashflows over the period of the 25 years of the IPP - oh he knows, and he knows its nothing to shout about - IRR 12% equals payback in 8 years, only desperate to change their fortunes JAKS would accept such lousy returns for an overseas venture.

But just like your 'too good to be true' common sense, all of this is still just conjecture and guesses

None of it is irrefutable, absolute truth

DK66

4,258 posts

Posted by DK66 > 2018-10-01 23:05 | Report Abuse

I also like to point out that the loan provided is on non-recourse basis. Which mean the bankers can only rely on the power plant to recover their loans. They cannot sue the borrowers for shortfalls, if any.

Even though the Bankers have step-in rights on the power plant to allow it to continue operating the power plant if the borrower reneged, the bankers must still be absolutely sure that the PPA provides sufficient cash flow with high margin of safety to allow the plant to operate profitably before approving the loans.

"A non-recourse debt is a type of loan secured by collateral, which is usually property. If the borrower defaults, the issuer can seize the collateral but cannot seek out the borrower for any further compensation, even if the collateral does not cover the full value of the defaulted amount." - Investopedia

qqq3

13,755 posts

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-01 23:05 | Report Abuse

kc.....How is your value investing...?

Your fans and fellow value investors, icon second last and plane fourth last in 2018 competition.


https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/qqq3/176078.jsp


https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2018/176005.jsp



qqq3 this shows......no permanent guru in stock market......all luck, and random.

but last few months really bad for those who are overly ambitious, really bad for previous champions because success got into their heads, really bad for value investors who do not pay attention to business sense, and good management......and really bad for those not flexible.
30/09/2018 14:22

DK66

4,258 posts

Posted by DK66 > 2018-10-01 23:31 | Report Abuse

Why people just walk away from "too good to believe" ? Why not try to find out whether it is believable or unbelievable ?

kcchongnz

6,681 posts

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-10-02 07:37 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Oct 1, 2018 10:43 PM | Report Abuse

that is actually quite typical of people who got no balls to commit but interested in showing off or kicking up a fuss.


I still remember vividly 7 months ago someone thought his balls were big and pretty ind telling everyone everyday to sailang and margin on Jaks when it was selling between RM1.50 to RM1.85.

It turns out after exposing his balls and showed that his balls are actually twisted and ugly when Jaks fell to 83 sen 6 months latter.

Yet he still think his balls are big and pretty now, everyday talking about nonsense.

value88

706 posts

Posted by value88 > 2018-10-02 09:20 | Report Abuse

I agreed with KC that it is naïve to believe Chinese bank will give guarantee for the profit of the power plant. It is like saying when Malaysian bank gives out housing loan to you, the bank guarantee our property investment will profit us. No, the bank just make sure u can pay them back before they approve your housing loan.

qqq3

13,755 posts

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-02 10:11 | Report Abuse

kc

You can redeem your self by committing yourself and your formulas to a couple to stocks....lol...if you dare.

otherwise they say your formulas only good for armchair critics but no balls to commit.

qqq3

13,755 posts

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-02 10:36 | Report Abuse

kc

KYY is a businessman and risk taker ( he says so himself). He is not going to write like an analyst, not going to cross every t and not going to dot every i. Why you have chosen to approach kyy writings with a magnifying glass? ...and then..... at the end concluded he (kc) got no conclusion..... lol

if your intention is to talk about extended shares.....then chose an extended share and talk about it....Jaks is not an over extended share.

Posted by Tryingtogetrich > 2018-10-02 11:27 | Report Abuse

hahaha.....this reminds me of hengyuan....a lot of predictions and assumptions, at the end go holland also

qqq3

13,755 posts

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-02 11:50 | Report Abuse

kc....how to be value investor when stock market not interested in IPP but interested in bankrupt and badly managed Oil and Gas counters?



another value investor dilemma......

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2018-10-02 12:24 | Report Abuse

nobody knows the hiccups Jaks encounter at the Vietnam plant. doing business is really tough especially in a country where language and business is totally new and alien

qqq3

13,755 posts

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-02 12:27 | Report Abuse

Posted by Jonathan Keung > Oct 2, 2018 12:24 PM | Report Abuse

nobody knows the hiccups Jaks encounter at the Vietnam plant. doing business is really tough especially in a country where language and business is totally new and alien
=======================

good comment......that is why we have stock market and stock market rewards those who assume the business risk and proven right later.

Sslee

10,110 posts

Posted by Sslee > 2018-10-02 13:00 | Report Abuse

Dear qqq3,
I refer to your comments:
KYY is a businessman and risk taker ( he says so himself). He is not going to write like an analyst, not going to cross every t and not going to dot every i. Why you have chosen to approach kyy writings with a magnifying glass?

I think DK66 had answered your question by correcting 3 factual incorrect information contained in i3investor top article “Why Jaks?”

As of the writer opinion:
“It is like the Chinese Banks is giving a profit guarantee to all the Jaks shareholders every year for 25 years when the JV sells electricity to the Vietnamese Government.”
I would think the writer is stretching his imagination too wide without reasonable facts or logical deduction.

It is my hope that the writer can double check his fact or ask someone to check and correct the incorrect facts for him before he published the article

Thank you

Livermore

2,798 posts

Posted by Livermore > 2018-10-02 13:20 | Report Abuse

is big trap wolf

Livermore

2,798 posts

Posted by Livermore > 2018-10-02 13:21 | Report Abuse

contra can...hold it will make capital in risk

kcchongnz

6,681 posts

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-10-02 15:09 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Oct 2, 2018 10:16 AM | Report Abuse
and as for Jaks...........
this is what fellow value investor Affin Hwang says....
Maintain BUY Call with a Lower TP of RM1.75
We are maintaining our BUY call, while lowering our TP to RM1.75, on the back of EPS estimate cuts of 9.4-12.8% over 2018-20E, as we factor in higher property losses from the property delay and the higher share base. We still believe that the stock is undervalued, trading at 6.6x 2019E EPS.
Source: Affin Hwang Research - 20 Sept 2018

So you are a big fan of investment bankers, only wen they write something good about a stock you promote?

Tell you what. This analysis of Affin hwang is nonsense. The investment thesis on Jaks is it future cash flows from Vietnam power plant, discounted to the present value. And its value per share for Jaks.

EPS is a stupid reason. 6.6 times PE? That is a hopeless analysis from an investment bank.

I thought you don't believe in low PE? So now circumstance suits you and you worship PE?

idunwork

370 posts

Posted by idunwork > 2018-10-02 15:13 | Report Abuse

Articles with comments shut down are suspicious.

qqq3

13,755 posts

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-02 15:40 | Report Abuse

yes, I am a big fan of investment bankers when they promote stuffs I like....not when they behave like 1 MDB bankers.

and,


The NTA of Jaks at 30 June 2018 is $ 1.47....The IPP of Jaks is expected to add $1.00 NPV to Jaks....based on very conservative estimates.


Actually KYY got great intuition to say NTA of Jaks is $ 2.50....

kcchongnz

6,681 posts

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-10-02 16:12 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Oct 2, 2018 03:40 PM | Report Abuse
yes, I am a big fan of investment bankers when they promote stuffs I like....not when they behave like 1 MDB bankers.
and,
The NTA of Jaks at 30 June 2018 is $ 1.47....The IPP of Jaks is expected to add $1.00 NPV to Jaks....based on very conservative estimates.
Actually KYY got great intuition to say NTA of Jaks is $ 2.50....


Let me correct you a few more misinformation you spread.

1) The NTA of Jaks is not RM1.47. Its NAB is RM1.47.

2) (1) above already included the assets of the power plant in Vietnam as explained by DK66, unless you can tell me how the hell you get "NPV" of another RM1.00, some more "based on conservative estimate".

3) "NPV" of the power plant is not that relevant as its present value, as initial investment is a sunk cost not relevant to new shareholders.

4) You don't seem to be able to differentiate between NPV, and PV.

5) Great intuition to say Jaks NTA is $2.50? Why sell at less than RM1.00 and incurr huge losses? You call that "Intuition"?

qqq3

13,755 posts

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-02 16:34 | Report Abuse

Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

Sep 25, 2018 10:51 AM | Report Abuse

Reference is made to the subject matter and the announcement made by the Company on 30 July 2018.

The Company's subsidiary, JAKS Island Circle Sdn Bhd's ("JIC") application for interim injunction was heard today, 1 August 2018, in the Federal Court. The Federal Court granted JIC's applications for interim injunction to restrain Star from receiving and the financial institutions from paying on the Bank Guarantees pending the hearing and disposal of JIC's motions for leave to appeal to the Federal Court, which has been fixed on the 26 September 2018.

This announcement is dated 1 August 2018.

=========================

it is not without reason I post the above.

well....I sold my Jaks on 25 June .......now looking to buy back......one more round.....this Jaks very kind to me......

qqq3

13,755 posts

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-02 16:37 | Report Abuse

I post the above Sep 25, 2018 10:51 AM

I sold my Jaks afternoon session Sept 25.....see....I very generous fellow.

kcchongnz

6,681 posts

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-10-02 16:48 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Oct 2, 2018 10:11 AM | Report Abuse
kc
You can redeem your self by committing yourself and your formulas to a couple to stocks....lol...if you dare.
otherwise they say your formulas only good for armchair critics but no balls to commit.

Redeem myself? From what? I have never asked people to sailang and use margin finance for Jaks and as a result causing them to lose their pants, have I?

Formulas? What formulas? Can share ah?

No Balls to commit? You have forgotten that you showed your ugly balls and caused many lost their pants? You better redeem yourself by, I don't know what you can or able to do to redeem yourself.

kcchongnz

6,681 posts

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-10-02 18:38 | Report Abuse

Your knowledge about NPV, IRR and payback period on Jaks power plant is highly in doubt. Certainly there is no way you can compare with DK66. Everyone can see the latter, may be not the earlier.

But let me refute your knowledge of NPV, IRR and payback period, the essential financial evaluation of a project.

There is no projected cash flows given by the JV, although they must have their estimates. Neither DK66 knows that, and I don't think he claims he knows it. Nobody bothers to give you those cash flows, but an indicative IRR. It is from the given IRR, the concession period and the estimated project costs we can roughly estimate the future cash flows of the project.

Hence point no. 1, I agree with DK66 that the IRR of 12% given is the project IRR, and not what as asserted by your previous comment below,

"The IRR of 12% is to equity, not to project, and no this is a statement, not a guess"

From what you are basing on to make such a statement?

I think when IRR is mentioned for a project, it is normally project IRR, as a project viability in financial appraisal normally is independent of the capital structure to be used.

Project IRR of 12%, "therefore Equity IRR is 30%"? How do you connect the two statements?

High equity IRR of more than 30% is not impossible, and I think in Jaks's case, it could very well be. But you must understand the concept of IRR, that all cash flows are reinvested at that rate of return. How to get a return of 30+% from the future cash flows?

Hence equity IRR may not be relevant, what is relevant is the future cash flows for Jaks, what are their magnitude and what is the present value of those future cash flows, and what is it translated to per share of diluted number of shares of Jaks.

An IRR doesn't mean the payback period is 8 years as in your statement below. It is not as straightforward is 1/12%. It is something to do how many years those cash outs are even out from cash ins.

That is why I said you may sound loud, but I doubt you are good as DK66.



Posted by valuelurker > Oct 1, 2018 10:48 PM | Report Abuse

You everyday harp on the same thing people will say you're a nag old man kcchong

You believe DK66 and say he's knowledgeable, so believing those facts, and inputting those numbers into your spreadsheet, that should give you the NPV - 'IRR 12% is to Project, therefore Equity is 30%++'

Instead you revert back to your 'common sense' and disregard the model, the theory, the maths, the thought process...

Youre like the scientist who has a hypothesis, runs the experiment, and the results do not conform to his hypothesis, then proceeds to disregard the test results and sticks to his hypothesis because thats what his 'gut' tells him - yeah way to go scientific advancement lol. Next time when you cannot prove or disprove something, dont go and tell the world you agree/disagree with someone - youre just like another one of those who are going to mislead people

Old man koon has access to management, he's substantial shareholder - at the start he was touting the massive 'construction profits', wanting to con the masses with the 'massive construction profits' and then it first proposed that the profits are not real, he now pivots to 'the 30% share in he IPP is free' - in that whole time, he has never mentioned anything about the yearly cashflows over the period of the 25 years of the IPP - oh he knows, and he knows its nothing to shout about - IRR 12% equals payback in 8 years, only desperate to change their fortunes JAKS would accept such lousy returns for an overseas venture.

But just like your 'too good to be true' common sense, all of this is still just conjecture and guesses

None of it is irrefutable, absolute truth

qqq3

13,755 posts

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-02 18:50 | Report Abuse

kc chong.....balls to commit means balls to stake your reputation on some stocks....not just go criticise KYY stocks over 2 years already........

and as for Sendai...my private whatsapp to KYY.....

[14:45, 9/30/2018] Sendai on the other hand I am bullish.... The environment is right for them. I think the sale of lift boat is not yet reflected in last results and will be reflected in next results..

[14:47, 9/30/2018] Middle East should be booming with cash at current oil price. Should be party time.


I very generous one...go buy Sendai before he does......

qqq3

13,755 posts

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-02 19:18 | Report Abuse

I teaching my analyst son yesterday....

the dichotomy of stock market.....

stock market is stock market....mostly unrelated to reality. Oil price breaks records, every bankrupt and badly managed OG counter also heavily bought...you think these bankrupt and badly managed OG companies will do well meh?


stock market......mostly what is good short term is bad long term and opposite is true.

and analysts are mostly playing Games People play.

every thing about stock market is about Games people Play.....just a game...Games theory is therefore a better tool than all the Kc Chong formulas and tools.

kcchongnz

6,681 posts

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-10-02 19:23 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Oct 2, 2018 06:50 PM | Report Abuse
kc chong.....balls to commit means balls to stake your reputation on some stocks....not just go criticise KYY stocks over 2 years already........

ME: DON'T HAVE TO PLP. I DON'T CRITICIZE ANYONE ON PURPOSE, BUT TO SHARE MY OPINION ON SOME GROSSLY MISLEADING STATEMENTS. JAKS IS A PUBLIC LISTED COMPANY. IT DOESN'T SPECIFICALLY BELONG TO ANYONE.

and as for Sendai...my private whatsapp to KYY.....
[14:45, 9/30/2018] Sendai on the other hand I am bullish.... The environment is right for them. I think the sale of lift boat is not yet reflected in last results and will be reflected in next results..
[14:47, 9/30/2018] Middle East should be booming with cash at current oil price. Should be party time.

ME: DON'T HAVE TO PUBLISH PERSONAL EMAIL LAH! WHO CARES? WHAT IS YOUR MOTIVATION? THAT YOU GOT SOMEONE FAMOUS ADMIRING YOU?

I very generous one...go buy Sendai before he does......

ME: I HAVE SEEN AND READ ENOUGH OF THIS "GENEROUS" GESTURES. ANYONE WHO HAS TAKEN IT ALL END UP IN DEEP SHIT IN THEIR FINANCIAL WELL-BEING. I HAVE NEVER MET A SAINT IN I3INVESTOR, BUT PLENTY OF DEVILS.

TO ME IT IS MORE LIKE,

NOTE: I DELETED MY COMMENT HERE AS I REALIZE I AM JUST SPARRING WITH THIS FELLOW, AND NOT OTHERS.

Icon8888

19,022 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2018-10-03 10:09 | Report Abuse

never teach your son it is good to PLP

it is not

kcchongnz

6,681 posts

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-10-03 10:28 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Oct 2, 2018 07:18 PM | Report Abuse
I teaching my analyst son yesterday....
the dichotomy of stock market.....
stock market is stock market....mostly unrelated to reality. Oil price breaks records, every bankrupt and badly managed OG counter also heavily bought...you think these bankrupt and badly managed OG companies will do well meh?
stock market......mostly what is good short term is bad long term and opposite is true.
and analysts are mostly playing Games People play.
every thing about stock market is about Games people Play.....just a game...Games theory is therefore a better tool than all the Kc Chong formulas and tools.


I don't know your analyst son listen to you or not. My guess is the best is he treats what you say as wind by the ears.

If he ever listen to you, then this is my best advice to you, and it is free.

Stay away from your son if you want him to to successful in life and his future financial well-being. Leave him alone.

Icon8888

19,022 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2018-10-03 10:41 | Report Abuse

yes, leave him alone

Jho Low father taught his son how to be cunning when he was young

now see what happens to the young man ?

qqq3

13,755 posts

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-03 11:03 | Report Abuse

icon

all the analysts in town are still wet behind the ears....all very inexperienced one.

the experienced ones all went off to do some thing less demanding than working until midnight and sometimes work until morning.

qqq3

13,755 posts

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-03 11:08 | Report Abuse

icon

the analysts work
the Jho Lows party

I think every young analyst prefer to be partying than to be working.

qqq3

13,755 posts

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-03 11:09 | Report Abuse

reporting season they say....how u get your reports by 9.00 am next morning?

MIDF

189 posts

Posted by MIDF > 2018-10-03 11:09 | Report Abuse

No wonder got sacked. Lose 50% YTD where got good?

Icon8888

19,022 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2018-10-03 11:10 | Report Abuse

just don't teach your son the bad things... let him learn by himself (just like you and me)

MIDF

189 posts

Posted by MIDF > 2018-10-03 11:12 | Report Abuse

Icon8888 post as analyst why deleted?

KLCI King

3,260 posts

Posted by KLCI King > 2018-10-03 11:16 | Report Abuse

Very good article to read, newbies better read to see both sides story, rather than listen to one sided thing.

qqq3

13,755 posts

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-03 11:22 | Report Abuse

Posted by KLCI King > Oct 3, 2018 11:16 AM | Report Abuse

Very good article to read, newbies better read to see both sides story, rather than listen to one sided thing.
===============


did u notice this article got no conclusion one?

Posted by qqq3 > Oct 1, 2018 10:40 PM | Report Abuse X

This KC kick up a fuss and at the end concluded he got no conclusion..... lol

KLCI King

3,260 posts

Posted by KLCI King > 2018-10-03 11:26 | Report Abuse

yes, qqq3, agreed what you said, it does not have any conclusion & not even an analysis, it is just another article pointing out the weak points on the other article.

I like to hear different stories to make better-informed decision.

Because of many have talked about Jaks, now I also try to see if the vietnam project can deliver good cash flow back for Jaks or not.

Hope it won't be like Ekovest, once Duke 2 completed, cash flow koyak.

MIDF

189 posts

Posted by MIDF > 2018-10-03 11:32 | Report Abuse

Jaks Vietnam project not yet start why assume everything to be fine?
Even WCE highway can delay.

qqq3

13,755 posts

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-03 13:12 | Report Abuse

kcchong....


you are no business man.....too bad.

but Andy is a Businessman.....you know what he will do?

Andy will pile on all the good news only after completion of the warrants issue. That is what good businessmen do.

kcchongnz

6,681 posts

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-10-03 14:47 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Oct 2, 2018 11:50 AM | Report Abuse
kc....how to be value investor when stock market not interested in IPP but interested in bankrupt and badly managed Oil and Gas counters?


Value investor must invest in IPP stocks? Tell me why?

How much you invested in Mudajaya 5 years ago when it was hot with the power plant project in India, and promoted every week in public forums such as i3investor at RM3.00+?

How much did you invest in Malakoff IPO at RM1.80 4 and a half years ago, and now less than half the IPO price?

Badly managed oil and gas companies cannot be invested by value investor?

I believe if you are good at investing in distressed debts, you may make big money in those O&G companies too.

Again, another free lesson for you; making money is not about investing in which sector, which stock, but what is its price versus value and the margin of safety.

I have been so kind to you for almost every statement you made, I taught you investing lesson.

SALAM

1,008 posts

Posted by SALAM > 2018-10-03 15:52 | Report Abuse

Bit by Bit and bip by bip, true colours are coming out...Otherwise no truth BUT Bull shit and Cock show..

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