I know, it has some plantations with young trees, and it is growing its Family Mart chain with more stores opening. Its other core businesses are also expanding. But what are your numbers?
....................
The long number will take very long to revert.....i am afraid he never will, unfortunately
PEG is the perfect answer, and there's no G when financial crisis happened in 2008 so how could you buy it? The G is the tricky part, you could call it a story, but it need extraordinary business senses and experience with micro & macro to work well...
Truth be told, Philips did not come to i3 to promote QL per se....U think he need your support to push up the share meh? Its a $ 10 billion company.
He came here because he got some thing to share. His own experience as a long term investor, his philosophy and his style, including some history and evolution.
I like it very much, so much I even referenced his discussions in QL forum to attract readers there. I think it is very refreshing, very intellectual and very good with a very high standard.
Kc....talking about liars, I am surprised u forgot the post....well...one post in 14,000, maybe excusable.
qqq3, I am very surprise the average investors are not updated with news.
Again, I could be wrong too.
(I don't like fight against naive investors but I do like to enlighten the few investors who like to learn and excel)
i) Why are chicken eggs at historical high? Simple, because there is a shortage. Why is there a shortage? Simple isn't it? Problem. This is econ 101 stuff.
ii) Some blame the feed price. But feed price has been stable for the past one year. Also, dropping soon.
iii) Past quarter, oil palm is at historical low. Bigger, more efficient oil palm players also find it hard to maintain profit. QL?
iv) If I am right, two out of three legs not performing.
I might be wrong too. But these are all market information. Do some analysis rather than just copy and paste the old figures, would you? Oh, sorry, most of the times you guys did some addition and division too.
The only guy agree with me so far is CPTEH. He sensed the same thing with chart, really smart!!!!
while i reckon good company always sell at premium, we need to study share price movement as well....clearly QL share price suddenly spike up, or PE sudden expand started from mid 2017 (another example is nestle)...from share price movement perspective, it is not wise to buy after the spike...u can buy at the top (premium) when the top is built up gradually, not built from the sudden spike...
this kind of good company, just wait for it to correct and buy to keep...business need time to grow, spiked up share price will need to wait the earning growth to catch up, plenty of time for it to correct...since it is long term game, can wait.
For me, I do a lot better buying low PE company with rock bottom expectation, which rallies upon the slightest outperformance, than buying high PE company with sky high expectation, which corrects sharply on any slight miss. I sleep well with low PE stocks knowing downside is limited, rather than trying to forecast growth, which often undershoot expectation in the majority of cases. While the academic argument justifying expensive valuation for good companies is sound, it's not a great money spinning strategy, in my opinion. For QL holders, well, good luck having the growth expectation met in the coming years. And qqq3, you are a waste of oxygen for the amount of spam you left in i3. Not only you spew nonsense, you spew so much of it it makes it difficult to sift through real content. The i3 community is worse off for the amount of digital waste created by you.
Nobody is asking anybody to buy QL at P/E 50. Long numbers guy can afford to hold because his entry price is low. From a business sense point of view, I think more research should be done to justify purchasing QL shares at this price. This is the key to long term investment success in QL AT THIS VALUATION. QL is overvalued on every possible valuation metric. Whether QL will be a good investment from here and beyond does not depend on the numbers. Instead, it depends on how their business will evolve over time. If QL successfully become an Asean agro giant, this price would be cheap. If QL expansion is less successful, a P/E reset will be coming. End of the day, it is about how much you understand the business and none of us, retail investors could possibly understand it in-depth bar long numbers guy who had a ground talk with the company's insiders.
Posted by qqq3 > Jan 19, 2019 10:13 AM | Report Abuse You made a fake statement like that ============= no, I didn't make a fake statement. I remember that clearly because I just bought days before someone asked u.( casually)
You made accusation, telling lies all the time, but conveniently said you "remember"? Is that the best you can do to prove that you are right and not telling lies as an "intelligent" person that you have claimed yourself to be? OMG!
You made the accusation. Isn’t it fair that you must look through all my articles, 350 of them, and all my comments, 14,130 of them, and find a statement that I have recommended to sell Vitrox, or any share for that matter? If you don’t do that, and can’t find that, what shall I call you? A serial liar and that you have been telling lies all the time in i3investor?
Isn’t that shameful for a 60+ year old retired “accountant” to tell lies without blinking your eyes?
And in Bursa Malaysia, great company with moat does indeed trade at rich valuation. I remember during 08/09, Public Bank never traded below book value. I couldnt recall when Public Bank ever traded at a low price to book value or below book value. But, investors who bought Public Bank at premium valuation still made considerable return over the years. The question is, does QL have moat? I dont know since I dont own QL. That is for the prospective investors to answer.
The statement by triple q above implies that a man with “above average intelligence” will buy a share with a PE at least above 50 like that of Vitrox and QL, ===========
I no need to imply....my exact words...yes, PE is one of the factors to consider when buying a share. On average u don't buy a PE 50 share because at that rate it takes 50 years of earnings to be equivalent to the price....The key words being " on average" But , it is your job as investor, if u want to make good money, is to find the exceptional shares....not the average shares. If are satisfied with average performance, then be an average investor la.....we are talking about those with above average intelligence and above average ambitions.]..........
find the exceptional shares....not all PE 50 shares can buy, the average company with PE 50 is too risky and speculative for long term investors.....
I really think only those with above average intelligence and above average ambitions can buy QL from years ago and still keeping and will still buy if he continues to like it after the next results ( and or further developments......)....That is one should do with an exceptional company.....u think so easy to find exceptional companies in Bursa?
Who is buying and selling every day? Is this the kind of shares novices will buy?
certainly not....
I also know companies with happy and satisfied shareholders can maintain premium valuations for a long long time.
easy to say sell.....That is besides the point....but good enough to have the share to sell or not in the first place?
I also know companies with happy and satisfied shareholders can maintain premium valuations for a long long time.
Doesn't every CEO want his shares to be traded consistently at PE 50? Its every CEO dream and only a select few succeeds. I don't mean pump and dump , I mean stay up there.
2018 bear market, every one gets affected. Some more, some less. From that angle, QL had been one of the safest share in Bursa despite its high valuations. So, who says high PE is automatically risky?
Why should you try to punish excellence and reward incompetence. ...quote from Philips....
The original function of Bursa is for the public to participate in the growth of companies. .....it would be healthy if excellence is rewarded and incompetence punished.
Posted by qqq3 > Jan 19, 2019 10:29 AM | Report Abuse Truth be told, Philips did not come to i3 to promote QL per se....U think he need your support to push up the share meh? Its a $ 10 billion company. He came here because he got some thing to share. His own experience as a long term investor, his philosophy and his style, including some history and evolution. I like it very much, so much I even referenced his discussions in QL forum to attract readers there. I think it is very refreshing, very intellectual and very good with a very high standard.
I fully agree with the above statement. No issue about it. Besides he also shared good stuff like
*Buy good companies, not rubbish like Jaks and Sendai which have been promoted heavily with sailang and margin, panic investing, dynamite investing. *Understand very well the company you invest in. *Beware of buying stocks touted by pumped and dumped syndicates and rich individuals in the internet *Nobody is so kind to help you to make money by telling you what stocks to buy after he has bought loads of them. *Hold good companies for long term, rather than self-claimed "super trader" who claimed he bought a stock at 1.00 and sold and made 5 sen a week later, and hope to be a multi-hundred millionaire just like that. *Appreciate good management, rather than those management like those in Jaks and Sendai which you have been heavily promoting.
Despite your heavy PLP, and persistently criticizing others, do you have any substance which is even close to the above?
This doesn't mean I agree with him in everything else. In fact, we have many diverse views in investing.
Yes, he doesn't have to promote the share QL, and he doesn't in my opinion, no need for him.
I think someone else just to hope to make some crumbs here by heavily promoting it, but without any substance.
When I started referencing the discussions in QL forum, I had no idea how many shares Philips has in it.....I just think it is good stuffs to share.....Too long already , this forum dominated by value here, value there, advanced maths even when I first joined....now, isn't it better with more emphasis on Business Sense and less Maths?
I started the conversation without knowing how many shares Philips has but by saying I like QL shareholders generally and Philips specifically...he has all the intellectual capacity, knowledge and character that I expect in a QL shareholder that he has since shown in abundance.
Posted by qqq3 > Jan 19, 2019 11:27 AM | Report Abuse kc....I don't know whether u forgot or not....and I don't care. I know I did not make a mistake.
So still haven't found my statement above. Just by saying you remember, or you did not make mistake, and then expect people to believe you? With your known character as expounded below, you think people believe in you?
SSLee, What I most against is people using deceive and pump and dump like “You-Know-Who” where JAKS and SENDAI were promoted by him with "sailang" and margin finance non-stop day and night which had trapped many investors chasing the shares to RM1.80+ and lost a fortune, but he himself made a "killing", again and again, and still has the gut to boast about it and talk cock in i3.
Posted by qqq3 > Nov 2, 2018 01:43 AM | Report Abuse kc u fail to understand, Jaks and Sendai are the 2 counters I made the most money...and why not? when I know the chong ker.....and I have the killer instinct..........
when we talk about numbers...we mean we calculate how fast can an atomic bom release its energy due to chain reaction......
with the bomb size of hiroshima....its no logic to say it will wipe out china.....
there is mathematical fundamental limitation on the growth rate of QL due to its nature of business it has been and even those its venturing...
unless it gets into a complete different type of business like technology or e-commerce...
Posted by Flintstones > Jan 19, 2019 10:50 AM | Report Abuse
Whether QL will be a good investment from here and beyond does not depend on the numbers. Instead, it depends on how their business will evolve over time. If QL successfully become an Asean agro giant, this price would be cheap.
How abt those buying bec they want fast money? If they don't buy now later pay more?
Posted by Flintstones > Jan 19, 2019 10:50 AM | Report Abuse Nobody is asking anybody to buy QL at P/E 50. Long numbers guy can afford to hold because his entry price is low. From a business sense point of view, I think more research should be done to justify purchasing QL shares at this price. This is the key to long term investment success in QL AT THIS VALUATION. QL is overvalued on every possible valuation metric. Whether QL will be a good investment from here and beyond does not depend on the numbers. Instead, it depends on how their business will evolve over time. If QL successfully become an Asean agro giant, this price would be cheap. If QL expansion is less successful, a P/E reset will be coming. End of the day, it is about how much you understand the business and none of us, retail investors could possibly understand it in-depth bar long numbers guy who had a ground talk with the company's insiders.
Lofty valuation is due to artificial support provided by major shareholder
Don't kid yourself that it is a fantastic business ===========
popular myth, popular misconception about how share market works....Every CEO likes his share to trade at PE 50 but only a select few companies do. So easy to give artificial support?
Only companies with the reputation and the good stories to tell succeed.....The key word, reputation.
Hap Seng $ 25 billlion market cap.....Long term investors especially those from Sabah like long numbers guy, have a vision that one day QL market cap will catch up with HapSeng....
U NEED TO ASK THIS VERY INTELLIGENT QUESTION WHY INSAS IS MUCH SUPERIOR THAN MOST OF THE BLUECHIPS & GROWTH STOCK MAH ?? :
Posted by stockraider > Jan 18, 2019 08:19 PM | Report Abuse X
U ask yourself what type of earning power ?? When Nestle earnings yield is less than 2% pa based on PE above 50%...even u put monies in fixed deposits u get an earning power of 4% pa mah....!!
If u buy insas got earning power as Pe less than 10x...earning yield already exceed 10% pa mah...!!
Margin of Safety for those who are invested in Nestle, DLady, PBB, Petdag and HEIM, as explained and taught by Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing. :thumbsup: :thumbsup:
In the ordinary common stock, bought for investment under normal conditions, the margin of safety lies in an expected earning power considerably above the going rate for bonds.
Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earning power over bond interest may aggregate 50% of the price paid.
This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety— which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss.
stockraider 9093 posts Posted by stockraider > Jan 18, 2019 08:31 PM | Report Abuse X
U need understand what is real earning power loh...!!
Insas ROE only 4% pa....but based on rm 2.54 u generating eps of Rm 0.10 pa loh....!!
so if u buy insas at rm 0.70 u r getting yield of 14% pa....this is what we call earning power loh...!!
stockraider 9093 posts Posted by stockraider > Jan 18, 2019 08:49 PM | Report Abuse X
Nestle ROE very terror 120% pa with NTA of Rm 3.00 it generate earnings of Rm 3.60....but u need to buy nestle for Rm 140.00...so ur earnings yield is less than 2.6 % pa loh...!!
Now u compare nestle 2.6% pa v insas 14% pa, u ask who got more earnings power leh ?? Of course Insas mah...14& pa warnings yield even kindy student understand 14% pa is more than 2.6% pa mah..!
But growth proponent may argue, nestle have growth woh ??
Raider ask very logical question loh...how much growth & for how long nestle need to grow from 2.6% pa to catch up with insas yield of 14% pa even, if u assume insas has no growth at all loh...!!
The answer is very long and very uncertain when nestle can catch up mah...!!
An english old saying a bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush mah...!! Insas yield is already there with 14%pa...now u want to speculate nestle yield 2.6% pa can catch up, but when leh ??
Thus insas has definitely has higher margin of safety than nestle loh..!!
Posted by stockraider > Jan 18, 2019 05:59 PM | Report Abuse X
The beauty of Insas....!!
1.CASH IS THE KING- IF U BELIEVE....THEN U MUST BELIEVE IN INSAS HATHWAY A TRULY WARREN BUFFET STOCK LOH...!!
2. SUP SUP SUI INSAS GENERATE SUSTAINABLE PE ABOUT 6X BEATING AEONCR WITH PE 12X BY A MILE.
3, INSAS PAYS 2 SEN DIV...THIS DIV YIELD EVEN BEAT NESTLE N QL DIV YIELD BY A MILE LOH...!! U NEED TO UNDERSTAND WHY NESTLE & QL CANNOT EVEN PAY DECENT DIV COMPARE TO INSAS LEH ?? THIS IS BCOS THESE SO CALLED GROWTH STOCKS WITH PE ABOVE 50, CANNOT GENERATE GOOD CASHFLOW, THEIR PROFITS ARE STUCKED IN EQUIPMENT, DEBTORS AND INVENTORY WITH SUBJECT TO IMPAIRMENT, WHEREAS INSAS MAKE ITS MONEY IN CASH N JUST SUP SUP SUI LOH.....
>>>> Posted by stockraider > Jan 19, 2019 02:24 PM | Report Abuse
U NEED TO ASK THIS VERY INTELLIGENT QUESTION WHY INSAS IS MUCH SUPERIOR THAN MOST OF THE BLUECHIPS & GROWTH STOCK MAH ?? :
Posted by stockraider > Jan 18, 2019 08:19 PM | Report Abuse X
U ask yourself what type of earning power ?? When Nestle earnings yield is less than 2% pa based on PE above 50%...even u put monies in fixed deposits u get an earning power of 4% pa mah....!!
If u buy insas got earning power as Pe less than 10x...earning yield already exceed 10% pa mah...!! <<<<<
Raider is a very poor student.
Though working for Neoh Soon Kean, he learned little from his master.
When you invest for the long term, you are aiming to profit from the earning power of the company over the long term.
Of course, the earning power of Nestle is better than Insas over the long term. This should be immediately obvious. Nestle has durable competitive advantage, backed by the world's number one food and beverage manufacturer, its brand and good research and development of new products besides a first grade management.
Earnings yield is just the reciprocal of P/E. We have discussed P/E already in other posts. It is not earning power.
Raider already ask loh....ur nestle earnings yield 2.6% pa v insas 14% pa the gap is so wide, when & how u going catch up leh ?
Yes u may say growth but how much growth u going to churn mah ??
Maybe if the earnings yield of 7% v 14% i can accept as a compromise loh....!!
Logical or not leh ?
3iii comment: Raider is a very poor student.
Though working for Neoh Soon Kean, he learned little from his master.
When you invest for the long term, you are aiming to profit from the earning power of the company over the long term.
Of course, the earning power of Nestle is better than Insas over the long term. This should be immediately obvious. Nestle has durable competitive advantage, backed by the world's number one food and beverage manufacturer, its brand and good research and development of new products besides a first grade management.
Earnings yield is just the reciprocal of P/E. We have discussed P/E already in other posts. It is not earning power.
but those accumulated nestle has been huat like pig head wor, while those who brought insas, everyday only hope for it to go to RM1.00 and sell it.....that's the reality...no?
U need to understand this loh...Nestle getting about div yield of about 2.5% pa and the earnings yield is about 2.6% pa mah but the fixed deposits rate is 4% pa....how long do u think the nestle shareholder decide to sell either place in fixed deposits or buy more insas like stocks with return exceeding 14% pa loh....!!
Insas yield 14% pa n they are paying 3% pa dividend yield whereas fixed deposits is 4% pa, yes div lower than fd but the earnings yield much higher, meaning going fwd insas can afford much higher div payout and their retained profit will continue to grow & huge going fwd loh...!!
That means insas is in a sense a growth stock mah...!!
Posted by lizi > Jan 19, 2019 03:25 PM | Report Abuse
but those accumulated nestle has been huat like pig head wor, while those who brought insas, everyday only hope for it to go to RM1.00 and sell it.....that's the reality...no?
>>> Posted by lizi > Jan 19, 2019 03:25 PM | Report Abuse
but those accumulated nestle has been huat like pig head wor, while those who brought insas, everyday only hope for it to go to RM1.00 and sell it.....that's the reality...no? >>>
Already mentioned in past too, raider is a lousy student.
It should also be immediately obvious from this forum that no one is more interested and careful of your money, than yourself.
Everyone takes care of his/her own money. You have deep interest in your own money and that should be obvious.
Do you think raider and/or calvin (and others too) are here to help you make money as their primary motivation? If you say yes, you are naive.
Of course, their primary interest is to ensure safety of their own money and hopefully too, to make more money from the situations.
So do not be fooled that you can get a good outcome by following others blindly. Yes, listen to what they are promoting but ALWAYS do your own homework and ALWAYS make your own decision.
U r looking at old success that is already factor in the share price mah....!!
U should start scouting for new growth stock if u believe in growth investment mah...!!
Posted by 3iii > Jan 19, 2019 03:40 PM | Report Abuse
>>> Posted by lizi > Jan 19, 2019 03:25 PM | Report Abuse
but those accumulated nestle has been huat like pig head wor, while those who brought insas, everyday only hope for it to go to RM1.00 and sell it.....that's the reality...no? >>>
Already mentioned in past too, raider is a lousy student.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
probability
14,496 posts
Posted by probability > 2019-01-18 22:47 | Report Abuse
I know, it has some plantations with young trees, and it is growing its Family Mart chain with more stores opening. Its other core businesses are also expanding. But what are your numbers?
....................
The long number will take very long to revert.....i am afraid he never will, unfortunately