Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-04 08:34 | Report Abuse

Funnily enough both companies has a dead cat bounce in 2018 December. Yocb from 0.90 to 1.15.
BBBY from 10 to 15.

But earnings, margins and revenues all growing sloooooowly.

I could name the other 18 companies in asia, SEA and Malaysia that does similar business with similar INDUSTRY results, but I'd leave icon8888 to explain it.

He so smart, he knows what he is talking about I'm sure. I just simply talk out of my head without understanding the industry.

Posted by arv18 > 2019-03-04 12:17 | Report Abuse

Heading to RM2 shortly. I said it first. To the point. No essays required.

Posted by newbie911 > 2019-03-04 16:01 | Report Abuse

Flying !!!

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-04 16:48 | Report Abuse

Good luck arv18!

Posted by antoniomc27 > 2019-03-04 23:48 | Report Abuse

Philip, I learn a lot reading you and i3 forum in general.

In this case, and from my humble opinion, it is true that this kind of traditional brick-and-mortar or prone-to-digital-disruption businesses trade at depressed price for a reason. Time will tell if they are a good investment or not, but as Philippe says the potential for growth is severely capped.

I have a question for Philippe, though. For you, companies engaged on traditional businesses with low PE and which post slow but steady gains on top and bottom line, are worth investing in, or not? i am thinking of RCE capital, MBMR, BIMB or the likes. From your comments it looks like you would only consider high-growth stocks, but those can be found in a handful of sectors only.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-05 00:53 | Report Abuse

To be honest, I have never bought "high growth stocks". When I bought QL in 2009, it wasn't exactly a high growth stock, I just followed and invested in it every quarter with what money I had, watching it grow.

Same thing with topglove, who would have predicted that it would be a high growth stock in 2010? I just found a stock in an industry that had room to grow (a big market "pie") and had found some competitive business advantages that was apparent and growing.

It is now my 6 year holding and buying into YINSON. Can anyone predict they would be the 6th biggest FPSO company in the world and overtaking ananda krishnans bumi armada? I knew they would do well, because they were a malaysian company that was competing out of malaysia, and the lowest cost producer in the fpso charter industry. but high growth?

PCHEM was a low PE stock (in its industry) that I think very well of.

HLIND is also another low PE stock, that has been having good growth.

Those are all in markets with room to grow in Malaysia.

RCECapital can only borrow to the best of the B40 crowd, therefore terminal growth and growing sloooooowly. If it goes beyond the 100 million a quarter, it will start to borrow to the not so good crowd,and you will start looking at NPL skyrocketing up. and looking at MBSB and competing with AEON credit I dont think it has the management talent to compete with them. It is the rich son of AMBANK boss at the helm, what can you expect?

MBMR is just a car dealership in a very oversupplied market with no differentiation, it has already hit terminal growth. It hasn't broken the 500 million a quarter mark since 2013, I dont expect it to grow much as its wheel manufacturing business is badly planned, badly organised, doing badly and last I heard it will sell it off to someone smarter. It has already shown a failure to diversify, I wouldn't be betting on its "bright" future anytime soon. Who buys daihatsu trucks anyway?

BIMB on the other hand I think would be a good choice, as its takaful business is doing well, the asset quality is better than most, and surprisingly it is becoming more convservative and careful on its loans, which is reflected in it growings earnings (but more importantly less riskier loans).

To be honest, all the stocks you listed I think will do average over time. It will perform meh. But I dont like the industry well enough or see it good enough that it will give you amazing results over 10 years.

Think about it from my perspective, if you want to invest in something risky like stocks, you need to compare your risk profile versus EPF (6.13% PA) and ASB (2018 = 7%). These are almost zero risk investments over its lifetime (over 20 years since ASB was launch in 90's), so your "low risk" stock ideas better average more than 10% per annum (including all costs, dividends etc) otherwise you are better off just saving your money in a fixed deposit yielding 4.25% and compounding the profits.

will YOCB give your that 10% capital gain a year including dividends when you calculate your risk in holding the stock for a long period of time?

I leave it up to you to decide.

I pity simple investors who think investing is easy and can broken down to 5 point question/single word answers.

>>>>>>

I have a question for Philippe, though. For you, companies engaged on traditional businesses with low PE and which post slow but steady gains on top and bottom line, are worth investing in, or not? i am thinking of RCE capital, MBMR, BIMB or the likes. From your comments it looks like you would only consider high-growth stocks, but those can be found in a handful of sectors only.

Posted by arv18 > 2019-03-05 20:15 | Report Abuse

I really fail to understand what your point is here man. You seem to be beating around the bush, with generic cookie-cutter statements; not really getting anywhere fast with your essays.

We are interested in YOCB. Can you share something related to this counter. Not MBMR, RCE or PCHEM, which I'm sure are good stocks too.

If you want to promote BIMB, RCE, MBMR etc, why not publish a nice blog post and place this information there?

Just a friendly suggestion.

Posted by antoniomc27 > 2019-03-06 00:11 | Report Abuse

arv18, I was asking about those stocks as suggestions of slow-but-steady increase of revenue.

Philip, thank you for your insights, I really appreciate. Totally right in EPF/ASB yardstick. I take my investments in Bursa as a way to have skin in the game and learn more about investing, though.

cheers.

And sorry to the rest for hijacking YOCB thread, hehe.

Posted by soojinhou > 2019-03-06 08:14 | Report Abuse

"will YOCB give your that 10% capital gain a year including dividends when you calculate your risk in holding the stock for a long period of time?"

I'm already sitting on 13% gain for holding 1 quarter. The problem with people like Philip is that with some success in stock market, he insists his is the the true and only path. Everyone else is a loser. I don't know why we keep getting people like that, from Choivo to now Philip. Who say YOCB's investors want to hold it long term? What is it that everyone must follow your way? As much as Philip puts up solid arguments on the merits of his investment strategy, it's the same old intolerant attitude towards anyone else who differ.

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2019-03-06 15:07 | Report Abuse

Good to know that Phillip notices Hong Leong Ind.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-07 07:17 | Report Abuse

Find out where I said the exact words that mine is the one and only true path. I will give you 2 million shares in TOPGLOV.

I never said that you will not succeed, as people who buy average companies for wonderful price definitely will succeed. It's called ben Graham net asset cigar butt investing.

What I believed Warren buffet was ( and I found out myself) if you are deploying big amounts of equity, you will not have oversized rates of return compared to buying wonderful companies at fair prices.

His words, not mine. Why you worship him and egg me? Go drop a letter to him la saying that his methods are trash.

And you yourself are a very clear example. You hold 1 quarter get 13% and you get the right to make fun of old uncles?

How MUCH money did you deploy? Are you going to hold it in YOCB for the next 5 years?

If you held a stock for 10 years with 27% average compounded growth ( and you topped up every quarter), then you come back and insult uncle ok la.

If you haven't been investing that long, well I recommend you to read more and insult less.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-07 07:37 | Report Abuse

You cherry pick this quarter when entire small cap index bounce and say yocb is the best? Sure.

If you want to cherry pick short term, why don't you study your opportunity costs? DAYANG and carimin blew you out of the water. Jaks blew you out of the water. Even my brother in law when he bought more pphb at 0.46 this quarter didn't do so bad. Even sapura blew you out of the water.

But are you looking at short term gains or long term performance? Yocb short term price swing is average. Long term price swing is average. Long term business performance is average.

Can make money? Sure.

But wouldn't you rather invest in your "moat" China company listed in Singapore with super clean and hyper efficient technology that is better than nuclear but has no international patents, no customers outside of China,no verifiable technology in Singapore, and obviously no one has heard of globally. That sounds like a sure win investment!

Wouldn't you rather "bet" on that kid?

Posted by soojinhou > 2019-03-07 07:42 | Report Abuse

Philip, you said it yourself, investing in small cap is unsuitable for investors with large capital. Given the fact that not everyone is a multi millionaire like you, why do you bother criticizing other people's strategy of investing in cigar butts companies, when it works mighty well with the mass of poor people who do not have the financial resources you have?

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-07 08:06 | Report Abuse

Find me line in YOCB where I criticized someone for in investing in YOCB. Then I will give you 2 million shares in QL.

I have and will always only give my honest opinion in the long term prospects of the company itself. What I believe to be is long term competitive advantage, and where it is going in 10 years from now. You do with that what you will.

I don't bother insulting other investors or their investing acumen. I suggest you stop criticizing others as well.

I couldn't give a rat's ass about what you buy. I try to understand the business itself.

But let me ask you one simple economic question.

How deep is your understanding of YOCB? If I asked you to give me a logical, probable, possible futures 5-10 years from now where yocb will hit 1 billion in revenue and 100 million in earnings, how would it achieve that. And how far along your estimated growth plan is yocb performing so far.

That is a mental model that I use in preliminary evaluating any company.

Not switching and hoping and betting on luck.

Posted by soojinhou > 2019-03-07 08:12 | Report Abuse

Small is beautiful. For people with limited financial resources, agility is their friend. Before you criticize buying cheap ass small cap mediocre business any further, please look up David Webb and see how this strategy serves him well over 2 decades with a CAGR of 20%.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-07 08:23 | Report Abuse

I don't want to waste time comparing with David Webb whose investment is based in Hong Kong in the 90s when hkse was full of lax oversight and regulatory problems. Different market. Different systems.

I ask soojinho who invested in Bursa Malaysia what his 10 year returns are with his cigar butt investing are.

Since you like this question so much,

What is your 10 year CAGR in bursa investing? Switching cheap ass stocks and all that.

Be honest.

I can smell bullshit a mile away.

Posted by soojinhou > 2019-03-07 08:43 | Report Abuse

Over the years, I've lost about 10m investing in Bursa. I've lost my home, my car and my job punting small cap stocks like YOCB. I'm probably the biggest loser in the whole market. Fortunately I still have some money to pay my internet subscription so I can talk shit to seniors like you hahaha.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-07 14:24 | Report Abuse

Uncle Philips, thoughts on Serba Dinamik?

Posted by Outliar > 2019-03-07 17:47 | Report Abuse

Phillip, how does one calculate CAGR if money is put in every month?

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-07 21:21 | Report Abuse

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp

Posted by arv18 > 2019-03-07 22:48 | Report Abuse

Man, Phiilip, what is wrong with you dude.

Take your medication.

Please!

Posted by Outliar > 2019-03-08 03:55 | Report Abuse

That only tells me that CAGR is not a good tool to measure returns when money is put in at various stages

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-08 10:09 | Report Abuse

then what would you consider a good tool? the easiest clearest metric would be how much money you put in the beginning, and how much money you ended up with today. Why is this important? There is no quantifiable, verifiable way of knowing how well you will do in the future "stage" unless you have a time machine to go forward in time.

Investing is a continuous, more art than science.

I don't really believe in cherry picking and breaking down results unless you are looking at 1 month to 1 year metrics.

I mean, is getting 30% returns in 1 month really better than getting 10% results a year for 10 years? especially if that 30% returns get you bankrupt in year 7?

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-08 10:13 | Report Abuse

ORLY.
bingo!
gem?lol!
SO SAD.


Maybe if I use one word answers I would learn more from this forum, eh troll?

Thanks.
Aiyo.
RIP.
Wow.

>>>>>>


arv18 Man, Phiilip, what is wrong with you dude.

Take your medication.

Please!

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-03-08 10:13 | Report Abuse

support Philip

should support good stuffs.

Posted by Outliar > 2019-03-08 10:46 | Report Abuse

My point being that nobody starts off with 100k in the 1st year and say ends up with 1m on the 10th year but never puts in any money between year 1 and year 10, what if he puts in 1k every month and 2k every month in the 2nd year and so on and so forth, how would one calculate CAGR?

Posted by arv18 > 2019-03-08 10:46 | Report Abuse

Phillip, you're that guy.

Everyone is focused, and on subject, eager to get the meeting underway. But then 'That Guy' comes in. He loves the sound of his own voice.

Given a chance to speak, this fellow rambles on and on. Getting nowhere. Just talking on and on.

Then everyone looks down at their watch. Shit! The meeting has gone 2 hours instead of the allotted 45 minutes.

We're all going to get stuck in a traffic jam.

Yes Phillip. You're 'That Guy'. The Traffic Jam Guy.

Posted by arv18 > 2019-03-08 11:05 | Report Abuse

And this is based on observable facts.

If you are the amazing analyst that you claim to be, then why are you bringing in companies from different sectors and different market caps?

You know that this is absolute nonsense. Look at kcchong's analysis and you see he makes a point of comparing SIMILAR companies or from similar sector with a similar market cap.

You, coming here and comparing MBMR, Hong Leong Industries, RCE (a finance company no less) to a micro cap, furniture and bedding stock is quite frankly insanity.

Which is the reason you should take you insanity medication BEFORE using the internet Phillip.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-08 11:11 | Report Abuse

Someone asked me question, I answered. Anything wrong?

Maybe you should stick to 1 word answers. You make more sense then.

>>>>>>>

antoniomc27 Philip, I learn a lot reading you and i3 forum in general.

In this case, and from my humble opinion, it is true that this kind of traditional brick-and-mortar or prone-to-digital-disruption businesses trade at depressed price for a reason. Time will tell if they are a good investment or not, but as Philippe says the potential for growth is severely capped.

I have a question for Philippe, though. For you, companies engaged on traditional businesses with low PE and which post slow but steady gains on top and bottom line, are worth investing in, or not? i am thinking of RCE capital, MBMR, BIMB or the likes. From your comments it looks like you would only consider high-growth stocks, but those can be found in a handful of sectors only.

Posted by arv18 > 2019-03-08 11:11 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-08 11:19 | Report Abuse

I get your question, but like I said I don't really see the point. What would be the purpose to breakdown returns in such a way? I just simplify it by putting in the total amount of my entire period I put in, divided it out between the years and average it out.

If your goal is to say for example that TTB is smart in the beginning 2005 and dumb at the end of 2019, it doesn't work that way if its still all unrealized profits which can change in 2025 that makes him look like a genius if bursa market crashes and he is holding unto 250 million in cash earningg 3.5% that he can catch fish in a net with.

I always have discussions with my wife about the purpose of calculation versus the calculation method itself.

My wife is the actuarist in the family. If you want a mathematical model how to calculate that kind of CAGR you will need to ask her.

I would recommend putting it in the "why bother" pile, average it out and move in. It is called AVERAGE compounded growth for a reason. If you are looking for SPECIFIC compounded growth.... probably avr18 can give you a one word formula instead.

>>>>
Outliar My point being that nobody starts off with 100k in the 1st year and say ends up with 1m on the 10th year but never puts in any money between year 1 and year 10, what if he puts in 1k every month and 2k every month in the 2nd year and so on and so forth, how would one calculate CAGR?

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-08 11:21 | Report Abuse

Woof!

>>>>>>>
Don't be so stupid Phillip.

Posted by arv18 > 2019-03-08 11:21 | Report Abuse

And more nonsense about the wife.

We're definitely going to get stuck in a massive Jam.

Posted by arv18 > 2019-03-08 11:22 | Report Abuse

Maybe you can share about your children, grandfather, uncles too?

Posted by Outliar > 2019-03-08 15:09 | Report Abuse

The purpose of course is that counting CAGR in that manner inflates your purported gains because it takes into account money put in say monthly at any time between the 1st and 10th year as money being put in at the beginning of the time period in which you are calculating. Or am I wrong on this? Do you compensate by deducting a few percentage points from your CAGR to account for this or what?

Posted by sich > 2019-03-08 20:43 | Report Abuse

Outliar, Philip,

What you want to calculate is call XIRR. You can't use CAGR. There is a excel spreadsheet function XIRR to calculate it.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/070914/what-are-main-differences-between-compound-annual-growth-rate-cagr-and-internal-rate-return-irr.asp

Watch videos below :
https://youtu.be/xRr5yAJyAYs
https://youtu.be/wlrgbtJgnas

Posted by Outliar > Mar 8, 2019 03:09 PM | Report Abuse

The purpose of course is that counting CAGR in that manner inflates your purported gains because it takes into account money put in say monthly at any time between the 1st and 10th year as money being put in at the beginning of the time period in which you are calculating. Or am I wrong on this? Do you compensate by deducting a few percentage points from your CAGR to account for this or what?

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-09 00:26 | Report Abuse

Excellent! I learned something new today. At least these are useful information, unlike boring one word answers.

There you have it! A perfect mathematical formula.

Posted by enigmatic > 2019-03-09 01:02 | Report Abuse

I have to agree with @soojinhou that there are various methods of winning in the stockmarke. There is no one definite correct way.

It is up to the individual, whether to hold long term, or trade in short term, to pick the best or just pretty good ones.

Although @(S = Qr) Philip is the new God of i3investor whom we hero-worship, it is clear he can be stubborn at times, dismissing some good & practical ideas from other forumers.

Disclaimer, I have nothing against (S = Qr) Philip. He has in-depth stock analysis and time-tested past record with his stock picks and practises what he preaches.

Forums should be lively with though-provoking ideas with forumers constantly challenging each other's views. Hopefully forumers won't stop sharing just because their ideas might not be accepted by some.

Posted by Outliar > 2019-03-09 02:52 | Report Abuse

@sich

Do you know if the IRR under the "Wealth Creation" tab in the i3 portfolio is accurate then? I wonder how the IRR is calculated, it doesnt give me a breakdown but merely the time frame taking into account your portfolio transaction history.

Posted by arv18 > 2019-03-09 11:07 | Report Abuse

Come on Phillip, you should regale us with stories of how your actuarial wife taught Warren Buffet to be a super investor!

Posted by arv18 > 2019-03-09 11:44 | Report Abuse

So tell us Phillip about your new alter ego "Sich" ... LoL!

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-09 12:37 | Report Abuse

Bye little child.

May you grow up one day.g

Posted by soojinhou > 2019-03-09 17:08 | Report Abuse

Philip, you are wrong about the importance of CAGR. CAGR is the single determinant whether you will be rich, or be average. The long term return of US stocks is 8%. That means if you close eye and simply buy without putting much effort you can expect to get that CAGR over a long period of time. That means, your can easily grow your wealth at 8% a year, and at that rate, given a long enough time, even peanuts can become a large sum. The test of skill is not how much you have grown relative to your capital, it is the speed of the growth. Warren Buffett is not admired for growing 8% a year brudder, he's admired for doing 20% for 30 years from circa 1970 to 2000. That is why, when it comes to comparing investing prowess, CAGR is important, not the amount that have grown. Even a tortoise can reach the finish line if given sufficient time. Having said that, your CAGR appears to be in the 25% region, which is pretty solid. If you can do 26%, you double your wealth every 3 years. Even though you are an asshole who shits on everyone else's investment strategy, I acknowledge that it is an achievement.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-14 17:23 | Report Abuse

There are two ways,

Google XIRR for Excel.

Or you use a fund unit method, and calculate the cagr for the fund unit price.

If you notice, using the second method, does not take into account, the investments made when fund unit price is low, so its actually possible to be positive on absolute but negative on %.

=====
Posted by Outliar > Mar 8, 2019 10:46 AM | Report Abuse

My point being that nobody starts off with 100k in the 1st year and say ends up with 1m on the 10th year but never puts in any money between year 1 and year 10, what if he puts in 1k every month and 2k every month in the 2nd year and so on and so forth, how would one calculate CAGR?

Posted by Outliar > 2019-03-15 00:03 | Report Abuse

How would you calculate your IRR or CAGR for example in a simple manner? Say if some people ask you what is your return over say 5 years time

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-15 17:28 | Report Abuse

Mine?

I just stick to the fund unit CAGR. Technically, i just broke even, ie back to fund inception fund unit price.

But in 2018, at least half the fund was placed at very low fund unit prices, not to mention the small margin facility obtained and used near the bottom of the market.

In any event, if and when i have a 20 year track record, whether or not fund unit or xirr is used, makes little difference in the quality of the track record.

In the meantime. My track record is my articles and my thought process when me and my investors meet and discuss investments. As well as whether the investor considers me a person of integrity.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-15 17:29 | Report Abuse

For most people, i think XIRR is better.

You know your deposits date, and amount, as well as the closing amount.

Just use that.

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-07 06:15 | Report Abuse

Revisiting facts, everyone thinks yocb would have done so well over cny period and business will do great in Q3. What happened?


>>>>>>>>>>>
Coming Q3 will be CNY sale period, most likely YOCB will register all time high net profit for coming Q3.