Posted by probability > 2020-02-02 00:07 | Report Abuse

Relax! Coronavirus is Less Dangerous Than the Flu, Says Epidemic Expert

January 31, 2020

All the panic surrounding the Wuhan coronavirus is misplaced. According to experts you should be worried more about the common flu.

https://www.ccn.com/relax-coronavirus-is-less-dangerous-than-the-flu-says-epidemic-expert/

The world is a state of fear after the World Health Organization (WHO) declared it a global emergency but one epidemic expert claims it's no more dangerous than the common flu.

The flu is more dangerous than the Wuhan coronavirus, according to experts.

In the U.S., 6.7% of deaths occurring during the week ended Jan. 18 were attributed to pneumonia and influenza.

So far, 2019-nCoV has largely affected the aged and the infirm.
The danger posed the Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is not as lethal as media reports would have you believe, according to an expert.

According to a researcher and epidemic expert at the Oslo Metropolitan University, Svenn-Erik Mamelund, Coronavirus should not be a cause of panic [yg.no]:

People who aren’t usually anxious about the flu probably don’t need to be so concerned about the Corona virus either.

Affecting Mostly The Old With Underlying Diseases.

Per Mamelund, the demographic most likely to die from coronavirus consists of old who have other underlying diseases. Unofficial data from British and Chinese researchers showed that 39 out of 41 deaths blamed on Wuhan coronavirus were in people aged above 50 years [Quartz] . This is not vastly different from the flu which claims mostly senior citizens.

In the U.S., for instance, during the 2017/2018 influenza season, 83% of the deaths

Flu Will Kill More People Than Wuhan Coronavirus

Other experts have echoed Mamelund’s view. Vanderbilt University Medical Center’s preventive medicine and health policy professor, Dr. William Schaffner, recently told Kaiser Health News that “coronavirus will be a blip on the horizon” [Kaiser Health] compared to the flu.

Sheridan Memorial Hospital’s chief medical officer Dr. John Addlesperger, shares the same view that coronavirus is less dangerous than the flu [Sheridian Memorial] noting that influenza killed 35,000 people in the U.S. last year.

An emergency physician with the Hospital Corporation of America, Dr. Cole Sondrup, stated that the Wuhan coronavirus will be less fatal than the flu:

My guess is when the season is over coronavirus will have killed far fewer people than influenza.

Not The Time To Throw Caution To The Wind Though

That said, there is a lot that is unknown about the Wuhan coronavirus. The respiratory disease’s incubation period is also a cause of concern. The period can range from two days to up to two weeks. This allows it to spread undetected through person-to-person contact. Consequently, countries that have repatriated their citizens from the coronavirus hot zone are keeping their nationals in isolation for a number of days as a precautionary measure. France has, for instance, set a 14-day isolation period

Additionally, no vaccine for the Wuhan coronavirus has been developed yet. Thus the only method of containing its spread is physical containment.

Posted by Tan Sri Rick Walker > 2020-02-02 00:37 | Report Abuse

Probability! Yeah, i read about this! But what if coronavirus cannot be contained! Then it would be much worst that common flu! Maybe i am started to get panicky! Just my 1 cent!

Posted by probability > 2020-02-02 01:07 | Report Abuse

after a month, the infection outside China is barely 170......98% of these are direct visitor from Wuhan...

That means the spread rate outside China is 0.02%!!

..................

thats definitely lesser than common flu rate

Note: the infection cases we are seeing in China are the result asymptomatic cases which are only surfaces during the incubation period of 14 days..

the actual virus is reported to be spreading in china since october 2019 last year and it did not originate from wuhan market alone..

so what we are seeing (2k cases per day) are long infected cases which are just surfacing...they are not the current rate of infection in china

see how the number appears after another week

Posted by Tan Sri Rick Walker > Feb 2, 2020 12:37 AM | Report Abuse

Probability! Yeah, i read about this! But what if coronavirus cannot be contained! Then it would be much worst that common flu! Maybe i am started to get panicky! Just my 1 cent!

Posted by zhangzuode > 2020-02-02 09:01 | Report Abuse

There is nothing to fear but fear itself (Franklin D. Roosevelt)

Posted by probability > 2020-02-02 11:35 | Report Abuse

If you see the incremental infection per day vs incremental death per day..

Fatality rate was initially 30 for every 1500 new infections...around 2.0%..
But the latest rise is 2500 with death of 40...meaning fatality rate dropped to 1.6%.

This means the true fatality rate is even lesser as only the serious critically ill would have approached health care at the earliest and there were many asymptomatic cases.

true fatality rate could be just 1.0% or lesser if proper healthcare could be provided on time.

https://thewuhanvirus.com/

Posted by probability > 2020-02-02 11:57 | Report Abuse

Locals outside China infected will only reach 50 by end of the year
....................................................................

out of the 175 infected internationally so far...how many had no directly link with Wuhan from a close contact?

I think it was only germany and japan had wuhan member to local infection of about 4 people in total.

Thats just 4 people infected out wuhan members of 171 in a time frame of 1.5 months as these visitors had been travelling since the infection started early dec in Wuhan.

4/171 = 2% rise over 45 days...

For simplicity, just take the growth rate of 2% for 1 month, in 1 year (12 months), this grows to:

1.02*to the power of 12 = 1.25

This means the infection count size would increase by merely 25% at the end of the year max.

Thats just additional infection to locals international by max 50 person.
.......

I think above calculation is perfectly reasonable considering the available data

Posted by probability > 2020-02-02 12:09 | Report Abuse

the above is true provided the current visitors screening level is maintained internationally or if the number of cases from china comes down and becomes under control and screening is back to normal.

Posted by Tan Sri Rick Walker > 2020-02-02 15:50 | Report Abuse

Probability! I really hope you are right! Today number of infected at 14k! It's really reaching alarming level!

Posted by Diego2020 > 2020-02-02 15:53 | Report Abuse

there's around 5 million Wuhanian escape from the city lol

https://www.businessinsider.my/5-million-left-wuhan-before-coronavirus-quarantine-2020-1/?r=US&IR=T

Posted by probability > 2020-02-02 17:39 | Report Abuse

Wuhan virus fatality rate outside Hubei is just 0.2%! This is a shocking truth everyone should know.

refer the table on the below link on the infections in China based on territory and fatality.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak_by_country_and_territory

As of 30th Jan
.............

Outside Hubei, within China infections: 9692 (China) - 5806 (Hubei)
= 3886

Outside Hubei, within China fatality: 213 (China) - 204 (Hubei)
= 9

Fatality rate outside Hubei:
= (9/3886)
= 0.2%
======

Posted by probability > 2020-02-02 17:40 | Report Abuse

The huge difference in death rate in Hubei region is due to the lock down by China government on Wuhan where they are forced to live with limited hospitals (healthcare).

...........

The govn is not allowing them to go out for medical treatment and instead building hospitals from scratch within Wuhan....

Purely to safeguard other regions. Pity the Wuhan residents.

Posted by Tan Sri Rick Walker > 2020-02-02 22:17 | Report Abuse

Probability! I saw few youtube videos on how Wuhan people are handling this situation! It seems they fully understand and having high spirit! They even gather on rooftop and shout positive things to keep themselves in high spirit! Kadoos!