Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-01 17:04 | Report Abuse

Probability, thanks for your "like"

Posted by probability > 2020-05-01 17:06 | Report Abuse

DK66, there is still an element of uncertainty if the Profit attributable to Minority interest was solely contributed by Vinh Tan 1 right?

Was the cash flow also derived similarly?

I am unable to translate the chinese

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-01 17:07 | Report Abuse

Probability, the minority interest refers specifically and solely to vinh tan 1

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-01 17:08 | Report Abuse

Vinh Tan 1 = 越南永新一期电力有限公司

Posted by probability > 2020-05-01 17:15 | Report Abuse

Ok, very good article then - thumbs up!

Now, from myside, i am left with the fuel costs of JAKS which will definitely (for certain) be higher than Vinh Tan 1 by 20% (due to efficiency difference between subcritical and supercritical coal fired boilers).

I am not sure how that will effect JAKS profitability compared to Vinh Tan 1 at the moment..

Posted by VIN3133 > 2020-05-01 17:15 | Report Abuse

Thumbs Up & thank you both Icon8888 & DK66 for your timely & great articles in this time of anxiety about Jaks in the last 1-2 days !
Your articles have now increased my confidence !
My decision to dumb dumb hold pretty Ms Jaks is correct .
I hope sifu OTB is reading your articles .

Happy Investing !!

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-01 17:18 | Report Abuse

Probability, thank you

The capacity payments of the two power plants should be extremely similar, if not identical, and that makes up the bulk of the earnings.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-01 17:21 | Report Abuse

VIN3133, you are welcome.

Lets makes Jaks great again !

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-01 17:48 | Report Abuse

Dear all,

I have fulfilled my promise made last year to deliver the strongest proof of all my evaluations.

Thank you

Posted by warrantKing > 2020-05-01 20:39 | Report Abuse

Hi , Jaks has 30% or 40% share to the powerplant ? Thanks

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-01 20:43 | Report Abuse

Jaks now has 30% with option to increase to 40%

Posted by warrantKing > 2020-05-01 21:36 | Report Abuse

DK66 bro,

Compare to others article which showing bundle of calculation , formula , and etc.

I think your article is most reliable source to project JAKS's coming EPS.

Respect

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-01 22:16 | Report Abuse

warrantKing, I share your thoughts. This is a straight forward profit forecast with very high reliability and accuracy. There is no need for complicated computations.

---------------------------
warrantKing DK66 bro,

Compare to others article which showing bundle of calculation , formula , and etc.

I think your article is most reliable source to project JAKS's coming EPS.

Respect
01/05/2020 9:36 PM

Posted by OTB > 2020-05-01 23:47 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Steve Ooi > 2020-05-01 23:58 | Report Abuse

dr investment in jv under balance sheet
cr share of result in jv p&l

my son told me.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-02 00:20 | Report Abuse

Dear OTB,

1. Yes, it will be reported as "share of profit in JV" in Jaks financial statement
2. Yes, the dividend may not be 196m. It maybe more or less depending on the need for cash reserve but it is not likely to be more than the free cash flow of 294m
3. No, profit is certainly 196m regardless of dividend distribution.

Thank you

---------------------
OTB Dear DK66,
I am not an accountant, I need to understand the below questions.

1. Assume the earning of Hai Duong power plant is RM 196 million (30% stake). I believe this earning will be reported as "income from other investment" in Jaks financial report. Am I correct ?

2. This earning or income is channeled back to Jaks Resources Bhd as a form of dividend. This dividend amount may not equal to RM 196 million. The amount will be less than RM 196 million. Am I correct ?

3. If JHDP does not declare any dividend even the earning is RM 196 million. In this case, the "income from other investment" in Jaks financial report is zero.
Am I correct ?

In the aforesaid circumstances, the EPS of Jaks cannot be based on RM 196 million. EPS will be lower or even equal to zero if there is no dividend declared by JHDP.

Please enlighten me.
Thank you.
01/05/2020 11:47 PM

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-02 00:35 | Report Abuse

Yes, correct entries

and upon distribution
Dr Bank
Cr Investment in JV

----------
Steve Ooi dr investment in jv under balance sheet
cr share of result in jv p&l

my son told me.
01/05/2020 11:58 PM

Posted by liewtz06 > 2020-05-02 00:38 | Report Abuse

Hi, DK66, thanks very much for the earning insights.
May I ask, if dividend pay out from JPHD to Jaks is much less than profit attributable to minority shareholder, how is it going to contribute positively to the free cash flow of Jaks?
I raise this concern because the in your table showing Annual Report of China Southern Power Grid, under Vinh Tan 1 earning figures, seemed that after 1 year of COD, the minority share holder did not receive any dividend payout, could it be the same case to Jaks?

Posted by babyinvestor > 2020-05-02 00:40 | Report Abuse

Hi there, I’m new and noob to the equity investment. Saw a lot of technical jargons and analysis on JAKS but not sure if I get the correct indication/ views. Power plant will be up and running by June and should contribute vastly to the company however to take note of the negative track records of the mgmt correct? Is it still a good time to enter or too high? Pls advise thanks!

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-02 01:02 | Report Abuse

liewtz06, you are welcome

Vinh Tan 1 achieved full COD in Nov 2018. There are initial cash reserve needs for bank installments (6 months as required by bankers), working capital, maintenance reserve, coal reserves etc. You will only see more aggressive dividend policy after all reserve requirements are met as seen in Mong Duong II.

I m sure it is not in the interest of the chinese partner to see idle funds remain in Vietnam. There is a shareholder's agreement between Jaks and its partner regarding control matters and dividend policy. I trust Andy to have his own interest at heart to see strong dividend distribution.

I believe Vinh Tan 1 will start to distribute dividend in 2020 which is similar to Mong Duong II

---------------
liewtz06 Hi, DK66, thanks very much for the earning insights.
May I ask, if dividend pay out from JPHD to Jaks is much less than profit attributable to minority shareholder, how is it going to contribute positively to the free cash flow of Jaks?
I raise this concern because the in your table showing Annual Report of China Southern Power Grid, under Vinh Tan 1 earning figures, seemed that after 1 year of COD, the minority share holder did not receive any dividend payout, could it be the same case to Jaks?
02/05/2020 12:38 AM

Posted by warrantKing > 2020-05-02 12:45 | Report Abuse

DK66 bro ,

What is the consideration for JAKS to subscribe optional 10% share ?

How much would it cost ?

Thanks

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-02 12:49 | Report Abuse

Around RM260m

Posted by warrantKing > 2020-05-02 13:40 | Report Abuse

Thank DK66 Bro.

Business is full of challenges , market is full of uncertainty.

But it is no harm to buy JAKS at RM 1.0x and keep until 2021 end.

It is like a win big loss small bet.

Somemore coal price is at low side now.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/coal-price

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-02 13:46 | Report Abuse

warrantKing, you are welcome

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-02 14:00 | Report Abuse

my good friend OTB,

very good questions.
I am very happy you ask the questions here

Posted by OTB > May 1, 2020 11:47 PM | Report Abuse

Dear DK66,
I am not an accountant, I need to understand the below questions.

1. Assume the earning of Hai Duong power plant is RM 196 million (30% stake). I believe this earning will be reported as "income from other investment" in Jaks financial report. Am I correct ?

2. This earning or income is channeled back to Jaks Resources Bhd as a form of dividend. This dividend amount may not equal to RM 196 million. The amount will be less than RM 196 million. Am I correct ?

3. If JHDP does not declare any dividend even the earning is RM 196 million. In this case, the "income from other investment" in Jaks financial report is zero.
Am I correct ?

In the aforesaid circumstances, the EPS of Jaks cannot be based on RM 196 million. EPS will be lower or even equal to zero if there is no dividend declared by JHDP.

Please enlighten me.
Thank you.

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-02 14:01 | Report Abuse

DK66,

very good answers.

thank you

Posted by DK66 > May 2, 2020 12:20 AM | Report Abuse

Dear OTB,

1. Yes, it will be reported as "share of profit in JV" in Jaks financial statement
2. Yes, the dividend may not be 196m. It maybe more or less depending on the need for cash reserve but it is not likely to be more than the free cash flow of 294m
3. No, profit is certainly 196m regardless of dividend distribution.

Thank you

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-02 14:10 | Report Abuse

This article should attract more investor interest in jaks. Personally, I think there is no better way for providing a more convincing yet easy to understand profit forecast on JHDP.

Please "like" this article if you agree.

Posted by edkfc > 2020-05-02 16:29 | Report Abuse

Yes..this article nail it all...Great Job as always DK66 .

Posted by Snipper > 2020-05-02 16:52 | Report Abuse

Hi DK66, so the 25years of BOT will last till YR2045 (2020+25years)? Thanks for you advise in advance.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-02 16:55 | Report Abuse

I think should start from 2021

---------------
Snipper Hi DK66, so the 25years of BOT will last till YR2045 (2020+25years)? Thanks for you advise in advance.
02/05/2020 4:52 PM

Posted by Steve Ooi > 2020-05-02 22:42 | Report Abuse

Thank you DK66, appreciate your effort. Great job, thumb up.
dumb dumb hold

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-02 22:49 | Report Abuse

Steve Ooi, you are welcome
--------------
Steve Ooi Thank you DK66, appreciate your effort. Great job, thumb up.
dumb dumb hold
02/05/2020 10:42 PM

Posted by dannykong > 2020-05-02 22:56 | Report Abuse

even no or min. dividend paid, the cash flow

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-03 16:28 | Report Abuse

Dear All,

On second thought, I feel ashamed to claim credit for this article.

The fact is I didn't perform any analysis in the article. I merely put Vinh Tan 1's results before you which could be easily done by anyone. Apart from the elaborative wordings, I didn't do much. The results of Vinh Tan 1 could speak for itself. I suppose that is why the article is very convincing.

Anyway, thanks for all the compliments which I feel I don't quite deserve.

In any case, I hope everyone can read this article and have a thought on this incredible opportunity.

Thank you

Posted by YONG > 2020-05-03 21:33 | Report Abuse

Thank DK66 for the information.

Posted by YONG > 2020-05-03 21:43 | Report Abuse

An investor should assess the Vinh Tan 1 result to further understand the Jaks' prospects. Any decision should be made after an assessment rather than blame anyone when the price drop.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-03 23:10 | Report Abuse

YONG, you are welcome. I hope you found the article helpful.

Posted by Alex™ > 2020-05-04 15:31 | Report Abuse

China Southern Power Grid Corporation pe brapa?

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-04 15:50 | Report Abuse

I believe it is not listed.

Posted by HuatRex > 2020-05-04 22:50 | Report Abuse

Sweet talk article. Lol. Attract more investors' interest? To help you push up the price?

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-04 23:19 | Report Abuse

Which part of the article is sweet talk and untrue ?
---------------------
HuatRex Sweet talk article. Lol. Attract more investors' interest? To help you push up the price?
04/05/2020 10:50 PM

Posted by Psng1215 > 2020-05-05 09:20 | Report Abuse

The purpose of this i3 forum may for people with knowledge like Dk66 to share their research.

And for people like me ( without special knowledge) to find more information about the stock we bought.

I am sure it's not for attacking people. If someone want to attack people please do some research to prove their points of view. We will very appreciate. Tqvm

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-05 09:53 | Report Abuse

Psng1215, I wish everyone in i3 possess your attitude.

Posted by Investee > 2020-05-07 09:17 | Report Abuse

DK66, can I trouble u to share the link to Vinh Tan 1 2019 annual report that form ur basis for peer comparison? Written in Chinese is ok

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-07 09:25 | Report Abuse

Can't share link directly to the file. It has to be downloaded to read.

However, You can search in this website
http://www.shclearing.com/xxpl/cwbg/nb/

Posted by Alex™ > 2020-05-07 09:28 | Report Abuse

dk66 avg buy price hw much a?

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-07 10:01 | Report Abuse

RM0.70

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-07 11:27 | Report Abuse

This artilce has attracted over 8000 visits ! Must have been heavily shared among friends.

Posted by Investee > 2020-05-08 20:14 | Report Abuse

If you don't mind, I would like to ask here. I cannot get what you mean. Is it possible to add more colour as to why cannot get near Vinh Tan 1 result without debt capital? I simply tried with U$1.8b upfront capital, RM651m p.a. over 25 years BOT. It's a lot lower than 12% IRR.

________________________________
DK66 A lot of valuation methods were modified to suit each objective. There is no hard and fast rules. You should read Vietnam government's guideline on the parameters used to calculate the IRR for its BOT project.

You can try to do your calculation without debt capital and compare that with Vinh Tan 1's results. With 12% IRR, is it able to achieve Vinh Tan 1's results ? I can tell you off hand, your results won't even be near.

Posted by Investee > 2020-05-08 20:17 | Report Abuse

Btw, I read the parameter guideline. It's does say equity and debt capital plus repayment of original loan as part of "spending". Sound weird to double pay though.