according to many news sources i think the party will only end by end of next year. with oversupply, competition from locals, china etc. asp prices tapering out. lesser profit growth etc.
WHO says widespread coronavirus vaccinations are not expected until mid 2021
The organization is stressing the importance of rigorous checks on their effectiveness and safety.
NONE of the candidate vaccines in advanced clinical trials so far has demonstrated a “clear signal” of efficacy at the level of at least 50% sought by the WHO, spokeswoman Margaret Harris said.
Actually it is quite simple, when Supermx/Top Glove next quarter exceed the research houses' consensus with double digits, and ASPs still has no sign of peaking in Nov or Dec, share price will move up (moratorium issue is temporary knee jerk).
Choivo, I think you missed an important point that there may be a worldwide conspiracy led by the mainstream media to heighten the fear of Covid-19 in order to destroy the world economies. CDC just admitted that in US, actual deaths from Covid-19 were only about 6% of the total announced earlier. The other 94% deaths had on average 2.6 additional causes, such as cancer, heart and lung diseases, etc. Cases of people of having died from car accidents with Covid-19, were reported dead from the disease. CDC has also bluntly stated that there have been more deaths from suicides and drug overdoses than from Covid-19. These falsified reports in the US have very much to do with the US Elections in November. Cheers!
Almost Everyone agree the party will end some time next year right? Look around !!!! Maybe people r starting to leave. Don’t be the last to leave oh.......... the last few to leave will have to clean out your account!
General Precautions Persons administering vaccinations should follow appropriate precautions to minimize risk for disease exposure and spread. Hands should be cleansed with an alcohol-based waterless antiseptic hand rub or washed with soap and water before preparing vaccines for administration and between each patient contact (1). Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) regulations do not require gloves to be worn when administering vaccinations, unless persons administering vaccinations have open lesions on their hands or are likely to come into contact with a patient’s body fluids (2). If worn, gloves should be changed between patients.
Distribution Phase my friends. It will sideline and once awhile spike up to attract more fish then after 6 month it will start drop until normal. Sometimes may take years. Not much flesh now only bone if you want.
Even when WHO's prediction of mass vaccination starts in mid 2021 comes true, it is only a beginning phase because it can take years to produce ample vaccines for the world populations.
The world economy will only start the real recovery journey when efficacious vaccines are available beyond 2021.
And to declare the Covid-19 pandemic is over, it could be another few years after 2021. In fact, WHO has predicted earlier that this pandemic would only be declared over most probably in 2025.
Then only the glove demand and supply will reach an equilibrium. However, the post covid-19 ASP for the big 4 will remain high and stable, due to the structural shift in demand and the new normal caused by this once in a century pandemic.
So from now till 2021/2022, we have a golden chance to witness the explosive PATs by the big 4 in the coming qtrs, and this is also once in a century, may be.
1. HY is a trap (or collateral damage, it was never the intend of the owner to make money from goreng?), the owner from China make up the numbers, get loan, and reporting bad numbers even since. Evidence by top directors + CEO resigned (immediately after something goes wrong). JAKS (in JAKS, the owner never say they can make so much money, only KYY+ talk about their ambition), SENDAI got net cash?
Bear in mind i said similar thing about HY even before the rise. I hate to earn dirty money like that.
2. I think you are making a mistake without study in depth on the company, the technology, the pandemic, etc (or maybe you did? kindly share your insight). We may defer in opinion/conclusion but at least you study on the company first. I mean, don't talk about sentiment only, in the longer term, its always about the company.
3. Nobody knows about the future, who knows if somebody crash a plane into it tomorrow. However, based on available information, Supermax will do superbly over the next 12 months at least, it is equally risky to invest in the recovery.
4. Even after this pandemic, other disease may come. This is not a one-off event, the transmission is just amazingly fast, and therapy is so difficult. In the future, to prevent such event from happening, worldwide precautionary measure is pushing the glove industry to grow superfast year after year.
You know? China always has weird diseases, swine fever, h5n1 and we Malaysia as a country (and the rest of the world), never allow to import any livestock or uncook meat etc from China, because they will always have outbreak, forever. Only this time this pandemic is so strong due to its manmade nature. They may make more because it looks like they are winning the war.
1. Supermax will have superb results there is no doubt about it. However... does the results match the euphoria and forward looking investments dollars to put into it moving forward? Can supermax next quarter reach 800 million? next quarter after that 1600 million? how about next quarter after that? Yes, one may not know the future, but paying the price today assuming that every year will be covid-19 year is not rational.
2. study or not, one thing is for sure: either you believe there will be a vaccine, or you believe that there will not be a cure. The probabilities of a vaccine coming out is far more likely than not, considering the entire world is rushing to produce a vaccine. The question to ask is simple: if no covid, how much will be the glove demand moving forward? If covid continues to exist... well.. different story.
3. Yes, other diseases will come, but that is not the question to ask. The question to ask is moving forward, by 2021 and on, how much more glove capacity will exist in the world? As supply will undoubtedly overload demand, how much will the price change versus supply? It is silly to assume that no one else has the capacity to produce gloves, and moving forward at such great margins, no one else will want to join in the game.
Philip, there is a big problem in your assumption. If you think Supermax double its profit every quarter, then in a year it will be 16 times growth, one way to value it will be 1600 times PE. That will be roughly RM1000.00 Per share. If you do a DDM, NPV, etc whatever 201 stuff you will get "infinity" as an answer.
I am quite sure nobody think Supermax worth RM1000, yet.
Supermax only need RM800m next QR, then slowly towards RM1b profit. At 20 times PE, assuming 4b net profit per annum, that will be 80b market cap. That will make Supermax worth slightly more than RM30.
(At RM2 a share, if Supermax make 4b profit, that would be PE of 1.4?? Possible, but not probable. )
Choivo, I got Supermax and glove fairly early too. What i mean is to advice you to do the calculation just as you did with Airasia. Don't jump into conclusion without working it through.
Let the numbers speak. Kossan, Harta still talking about USD30-40 ASP, Supermax is aiming USD280 now. Kneel to figures.
Remember bitcoin? Monopoly money can worth USD30k.
My guess is a half year pandemic will consume 2 years production of glove. It looks like it will go on for another 9 months at least, that will create excess demand for another 4 years at least.
-so your opinion would be long term holders are idiots? the greatest fools too? :p -you use 'supermax/glove companies'... so your article also meant Top Glove too? :)
lastly.... i think in life there's 3 situation.... 1)you fall in love, you chase and you succeed.... 2)you fall in love, you chase and failed.... 3)you stand by the side wondering if the girl is perfect before you decide to go after, but then the girl left.....
jon, i am not guru or sifu, neither am i a multi-millionaire... but i can tell you this - please, please.... don't always choose 3
New IPO: The onshore and offshore support services provider for the O&G industry, Steel Hawk Bhd aims to list on the Ace Market!
MQ Trader 3236 views | 3 d ago
0:17
New IPO: The largest mini-market player and a leading groceries retailer in Malaysia, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings Bhd aims to list on the Main Market!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
PrimarisMarine
1,464 posts
Posted by PrimarisMarine > 2020-09-06 13:17 | Report Abuse
according to many news sources i think the party will only end by end of next year. with oversupply, competition from locals, china etc. asp prices tapering out. lesser profit growth etc.