Posted by probability > 2022-09-02 21:04 | Report Abuse

Hope i3 investors Crack their head on the above over the weekend! Enjoy....

Posted by probability > 2022-09-02 21:09 | Report Abuse

The above shows even with zero crack spread of gasoline, HY will deliver EPS above RM for Q3 and Q4 with current margin of Diesel & Jet Fuel....

Posted by gemfinder > 2022-09-02 21:11 | Report Abuse

Wasting time reading all these rubish

Posted by probability > 2022-09-02 21:32 | Report Abuse

Estimation of Q2 gross profit earlier:

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2022-06-11-story-h1624320379-HENGYUAN_derivatives_loss_on_Q1_22_completely_clarification.jsp

Posted by tehka > 2022-09-02 21:44 | Report Abuse

Dear probability, I am not very clever as you and sslee with all these figures, I only understand the following which is good enough for me. Let me summarize your whole article as below:

1. Best case projection:
PAT would be: = 853 Million MYR, EPS = 2.84 for Q3

2. Worse case projection:
PAT would be: = 670 Million MYR, EPS = 2.23 for Q3 ( still exceeding Q2)

3. The whole Derivative thing:
Best case: positive
Worse case -187 Million.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-02 21:46 | Report Abuse

yes tehka, and at current zero gasoline crack spread assuming the others Diesel & Jet Fuel crack is maintained, Q4 EPS will be 2.84....

Posted by tehka > 2022-09-02 22:29 | Report Abuse

Let the naysayers celebrate first. It may take a few weeks or months but I believe the price will eventually show the true value.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-02 23:03 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-02 23:17 | Report Abuse

Do not get kon loh!

Let Raider summarised Petron & hengyuan position loh!

1.Petron Q2 for 30-6-2022
2. Pet 6mts 30-6-2022

1a.Profit attributable to shareholder............Rm 183m
1b. Profit comprehensive to shareholder...Rm 183m
number of shares Rm 270m
1a. Eps Rm 0.68
1b Eps Rm 0.68

Culmulative 6m
2a, Profit attributable to shareholders..... Rm 289m
2b. Profit comprehensive income shareholders Rm 289m

2a, EPS Rm Rm 1.07
2b. Eps Rm 1.07

Notice that Petron Eps attributable to shareholders & Petron comprehensive income to shareholders are the same bcos Petron treat Hedging gain & loss must flow thru the P&L which is the rightful treatment loh!

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-02 23:18 | Report Abuse

Let Raider summarised hengyuan position loh!

1.HRC Q2 for 30-6-2022
2. HRC 6mts 30-6-2022

1a.Profit/{loss} attributable to shareholder............Rm 667m
1b. Profit/{loss? comprehensive to shareholder...Rm {412}m
number of shares Rm 300m
1a. Eps Rm 2.22
1b Eps Rm {1.37}

Culmulative 6m
2a, Profit attributable to shareholders..... Rm 714m
2b. Profit comprehensive income shareholders Rm (475m}

2a, EPS Rm Rm 2.38
2b. Eps Rm {1.58}

Notice that Petron Eps attributable to shareholders & Petron comprehensive income to shareholders are the same bcos Petron treat Hedging gain & loss must flow thru the P&L which is the rightful treatment loh!

But hengyuan do not loh! It keep the hedging loss as no impact to EPS loh!

If we standardised the treatment like Petron....Hengyuan will be reporting huge losses loh!

Rightfully Hedging losses should flow thru P&L mah!

Thus Hengyuan performance appear very bad compare to Petron loh!

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-02 23:18 | Report Abuse

The most question for those people who invest in hengyuan is to ask whether the derivative executed are actually a faked device to siphon money from the company loh ?

The most danger question is the hedging instrument is completely unrelated to business hedging but it is a device instrument to siphon money from hengyuan loh!

The red flags can be seen by;

1. Many qtr of hedging losses loh!
2. Very suspicious long dated of the hedging instrument loh!
3. Extremely large hedging value has been contracted mah!
4. Extremely Huge hedging losses incurred todate loh!

If the above suspicion is proven true.....then hengyuan will eventually be worthless just like Serba loh!

Be extremely very careful on hengyuan loh!

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-02 23:19 | Report Abuse

Very important u should ask what is the current crack spread as at 2-9-2022?

sept 2022- USD 0.80
0ct 2022 - USD (0.70}
Nov 2022- USD (0.65}
Dec 2022= USD {0.18}

From the above trend the future crack spread trend is highly unattractive with low yield & negative yield loh!

A reasonable yield crack spread should be around USD 4 mah!

This mean Prtron future 12 mths for 31-12-2022 performance will not exceed profit of Rm 289m or EPS Rm 1.07!

Whereas HRC 31-12-2022 future 12 mths performance will not report better result of loss rm 475m or loss of Rm 1.58 per share loh!

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-02 23:35 | Report Abuse

Sometime I do not know whether to laugh or cry when so many people still believe in KYY who invented his own Brent crack spread margin.

Please know what is mogas92 crack spread margin, diesel crack spread margin and jet fuel spread crack margin.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-02 23:41 | Report Abuse

Correctloh....!

With Hengyuan languishing at Rm 475m losses as at 30-6-2022....very hard for it to catch up with negative crack spread loh!

Posted by MoneyMakers > 9 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Walao Oct/Nov/Dec future crack all alrdy turn (-)

Totally collapse leh

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-02 23:44 | Report Abuse

JUST look at negative crack spread for the 4 mths no hope mah!

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-02 23:57 | Report Abuse

Now stockraider say he can see KYY punya Brent Crack Spread in next 4 months

sept 2022- USD 0.80
0ct 2022 - USD (0.70}
Nov 2022- USD (0.65}
Dec 2022= USD {0.18}

Bravo stockraider.
Can you tell me how you get this figure?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-02 23:59 | Report Abuse

U just goggle & look at the latest CME Mogas 92 crack spread mah!

Posted by Sslee > 12 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Now stockraider say he can see KYY punya Brent Crack Spread in next 4 months

sept 2022- USD 0.80
0ct 2022 - USD (0.70}
Nov 2022- USD (0.65}
Dec 2022= USD {0.18}

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 00:00 | Report Abuse

Like that don know meh ?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-03 00:04 | Report Abuse

Stockraider ignorance is bliss.
God bless you.

Do you know what are the refine finished product HRC and Petronm produce?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 00:06 | Report Abuse

Yes go & make your money quietly...do not kon loh!

The fact Hengyuan crash....speak volumes mah!

Posted by tehka > 2022-09-03 00:09 | Report Abuse

Aiyoh raider, that is snapshot of only one out of many of the refined product of hengyuan. As of that one you are looking at, you must surely know the number will change over time. You got crystal ball? Your crystal ball can pakai or not?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 00:11 | Report Abuse

There is no justfication Hengyuan valuation should be supported due to wrongful reporting of its profit & huge losses of its derivative mah!

Let Raider summarised hengyuan position loh!

1.HRC Q2 for 30-6-2022
2. HRC 6mts 30-6-2022

1a.Profit/{loss} attributable to shareholder............Rm 667m
1b. Profit/{loss? comprehensive to shareholder...Rm {412}m
number of shares Rm 300m
1a. Eps Rm 2.22
1b Eps Rm {1.37}

Culmulative 6m
2a, Profit attributable to shareholders..... Rm 714m
2b. Profit comprehensive income shareholders Rm (475m}

2a, EPS Rm Rm 2.38
2b. Eps Rm {1.58}

Notice that Petron Eps attributable to shareholders & Petron comprehensive income to shareholders are the same bcos Petron treat Hedging gain & loss must flow thru the P&L which is the rightful treatment loh!

But hengyuan do not loh! It keep the hedging loss as no impact to EPS loh!

If we standardised the treatment like Petron....Hengyuan will be reporting huge losses loh!

Rightfully Hedging losses should flow thru P&L mah!

Thus Hengyuan performance appear very bad compare to Petron loh!

The most danger question is the hedging instrument is completely unrelated to business hedging but it is a device instrument to siphon money from hengyuan loh!

The red flags can be seen by;

1. Many qtr of hedging losses loh!
2. Very suspicious long dated of the hedging instrument loh!
3. Extremely large hedging value has been contracted mah!
4. Extremely Huge hedging losses incurred todate loh!

If the above suspicion is proven true.....then hengyuan will eventually be worthless just like Serba loh!

Posted by tehka > 2022-09-03 00:12 | Report Abuse

How is your precious petronM doing since Hengyuan QR release? Go up a lot?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-03 00:15 | Report Abuse

Stockraider,
If you are not pepare to learn and understand the financial report but just follow the herd and make up your own imaginary story you won't go far in investing.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 00:16 | Report Abuse

Petron future performance as explain below loh!

Very important u should ask what is the current crack spread as at 2-9-2022?

sept 2022- USD 0.80
0ct 2022 - USD (0.70}
Nov 2022- USD (0.65}
Dec 2022= USD {0.18}

From the above trend the future crack spread trend is highly unattractive with low yield & negative yield loh!

A reasonable yield crack spread should be around USD 4 mah!

This mean Petron future 12 mths for 31-12-2022 performance will not exceed profit of Rm 289m or EPS Rm 1.07!

Whereas HRC 31-12-2022 future 12 mths performance will not report better result of loss rm 475m or loss of Rm 1.58 per share loh!

Posted by tehka > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

How is your precious petronM doing since Hengyuan QR release? Go up a lot?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 00:17 | Report Abuse

Raider is expert in spotting kon mah!

Just look at serba....how raider sound the alert leh ?

Posted by Sslee > 16 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Stockraider,
If you are not pepare to learn and understand the financial report but just follow the herd and make up your own imaginary story you won't go far in investing.

Posted by kebling98 > 2022-09-03 08:49 | Report Abuse

Raider o raider. Heng Heng sell musangking . Not Kampung durian. Mogas 92 crack spread has no relation to hengheng lah.

Probability, are u lose a lot of money recently? Why use i3 members comments to write blog? Hire an accountant to work for you lah.

Posted by chokra > 2022-09-03 09:02 | Report Abuse

Investors of Heng Yuan, notice the elaborated arguments put up by two opposing sides. They operate like two opposing sides in a court trial. Obviously both sides try to convince you their research arguments are the ones you should trust. I suspect both sides represents either opposing syndicates or opposing Investment Bankers. For them, if they can influence the market to go their planned way, they make millions in profits from someone else's misery. So take both arguments put up by both sides with a pinch of salt and do not bet your whole house on Heng Yuan. Just a humble opinion from an old timer.

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 09:57 | Report Abuse

Be a rational investors, always prepare to see the good n the bad, the positive n the negative comments of your stock

Dont just treat the negative comments as toxic (as many did here) and only believe in EPS RM2 TP RM20 etc only

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 09:58 | Report Abuse

"Notice that Petron Eps attributable to shareholders & Petron comprehensive income to shareholders are the same bcos Petron treat Hedging gain & loss must flow thru the P&L which is the rightful treatment loh!
Petron reported a positive position after flowing thru its hedging losses to the P&L top line, this should be what hedging operation should be all about by smoothing out its profitability but not in hengyuan case with losses run into billions ?"

There is no justfication Hengyuan valuation should be supported due to wrongful reporting of its profit & huge losses of its derivative mah!

Let Raider summarised hengyuan position loh!

1.HRC Q2 for 30-6-2022
2. HRC 6mts 30-6-2022

1a.Profit/{loss} attributable to shareholder............Rm 667m
1b. Profit/{loss? comprehensive to shareholder...Rm {412}m
number of shares Rm 300m
1a. Eps Rm 2.22
1b Eps Rm {1.37}

Culmulative 6m
2a, Profit attributable to shareholders..... Rm 714m
2b. Profit comprehensive income shareholders Rm (475m}

2a, EPS Rm Rm 2.38
2b. Eps Rm {1.58}

Notice that Petron Eps attributable to shareholders & Petron comprehensive income to shareholders are the same bcos Petron treat Hedging gain & loss must flow thru the P&L which is the rightful treatment loh!
Petron reported a positive position after flowing thru its hedging losses to the P&L top line, this should be what hedging operation should be all about by smoothing out its profitability but not in hengyuan case with losses run into billions ?

But hengyuan do not loh! It keep the hedging loss as no impact to EPS loh!

If we standardised the treatment like Petron....Hengyuan will be reporting huge losses loh!

Rightfully Hedging losses should flow thru P&L mah!

Thus Hengyuan performance appear very bad compare to Petron loh!

The most danger question is the hedging instrument is completely unrelated to business hedging but it is a device instrument to siphon money from hengyuan loh!

The red flags can be seen by;

1. Many qtr of hedging losses loh!
2. Very suspicious long dated of the hedging instrument loh!
3. Extremely large hedging value has been contracted mah!
4. Extremely Huge hedging losses incurred todate loh!

If the above suspicion is proven true.....then hengyuan will eventually be worthless just like Serba loh!

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 10:06 | Report Abuse

As a general rule, apply a 90% discount on all the China Boss's Cos.

Second, spend yr time to study the contents of the Author n try to understand n verify so.

Third, check the Author's track records.....I have seen Sifu Probability's earlier analysis in Heng Yuan 1 (2017), Lionind (Steel Party in 2018) ,I think Dayang as well (2019).....

While I cant deny his facts n figures fm his previous posts sometimes do look convincing, but the ending is all the same.

See if we shall see a different ending this round.

Last but not least, back to my first sentence (As a general rule, apply a 90% discount on all the China Boss's Cos), it's oredi being proven 100% correct in Bursa for the past 10 years.

Good luck in HY.

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 10:09 | Report Abuse

Meanwhile, pray for a EPS Rm2.23 in coming Q3 (n price LU few days b4 or after Q3 result)

If this doesnt happen, u still have Q4 to go......

Not the end of the world......

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 10:24 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/forum/forum-thread/600286791?p=1

The last round (excluding Glove) we had so many lively discussions in I3 seems to be in JAKS.

Good to see I3 is back to alive also lah.

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 10:24 | Report Abuse

Personally I think DK66's analysis is as convincing as Sifu Probability...if not better

Again, we see many similar faces there too.

Posted by vinc3362 > 2022-09-03 10:37 | Report Abuse

Thanks to probability & SSlee for all the information provided. People with functioning logical brains will know what and where to analyse and see the end results.

Posted by vinc3362 > 2022-09-03 10:42 | Report Abuse

Do not be surprised by the price drop after stellar results announcements. This is not the first time and won't be the last time. I have done enough backtest in the past with qtrly report verifications to know such situation happens quite often. Just hold on, you should be rewarded handsomely in the near future.

Posted by tehka > 2022-09-03 10:55 | Report Abuse

Yes vinc I am agree. That couple with bad market condition. I think have to give it a few weeks to see if market can really ignore eps 2.2. I think naysayers celebrate too early

Posted by FutureEyes > 2022-09-03 11:05 | Report Abuse

By the way FutureEyes is another id of Probability for posting articles that he is quite convinced earlier.

Predicted the record EPS of Q3 2017 on 11 Nov 2017 as per below article before the results came out on 30 Nov 2017.

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/Insight1/2017-11-11-story137875-Q3_...

Q2 2022 prediction on gross profit after hedging loss is also accurate as per below article by probability:

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2022-06-11-story-h1624320379-HENGYUAN_derivatives_loss_on_Q1_22_completely_clarification.jsp


Posted by CharlesT > Sep 3, 2022 10:06 AM | Report Abuse

As a general rule, apply a 90% discount on all the China Boss's Cos.

Second, spend yr time to study the contents of the Author n try to understand n verify so.

Third, check the Author's track records.....I have seen Sifu Probability's earlier analysis in Heng Yuan 1 (2017), Lionind (Steel Party in 2018) ,I think Dayang as well (2019).....

While I cant deny his facts n figures fm his previous posts sometimes do look convincing, but the ending is all the same.

See if we shall see a different ending this round.

Last but not least, back to my first sentence (As a general rule, apply a 90% discount on all the China Boss's Cos), it's oredi being proven 100% correct in Bursa for the past 10 years.

Good luck in HY.

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 11:09 | Report Abuse

Try to verify as much as u could if its possible

I remembered last time KYY even flied to China to inspect XInquan's factory...He was very impressed with their new hostels then if I m not mistaken.

Then he started to sapu Xinquan fm Rm1.50 all the way down to few cents even on it's last trading day in Bursa.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 11:11 | Report Abuse

This is true loh!

Not only that, he went to see xinguan & msport as well & give a fine report for both loh!

But both turn up bankrupt eventually mah!

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 11:12 | Report Abuse

His nephew was the Auditor of Xinquan then so he was very sure of the cash in bank balance of ard RM1.50+.

I think that's part of the reason SSLee bought Xinquan too.

Pardon me, when people gets elder they like to talk grandmother story. One day u will know....

Of course HY is not the same with Xinquan lah. Their petrol stations in Msia are all real one.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-03 11:14 | Report Abuse

Charlest, Stockraider, spent some time to understand what the articles shows. No one is trying to plug figures from the air...

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 11:16 | Report Abuse

its interesting!!!!

but but but

=> Tomorrow is always the same as Yesterday

and you have your answer

////
Third, check the Author's track records.....I have seen Sifu Probability's earlier analysis in Heng Yuan 1 (2017), Lionind (Steel Party in 2018) ,I think Dayang as well (2019).....

While I cant deny his facts n figures fm his previous posts sometimes do look convincing, but the ending is all the same.

See if we shall see a different ending this round.
////

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 11:17 | Report Abuse

People say Hengyuan is different from xinguan, bcos hengyuan operate in msia whereas xinguan is only listed in msia but business operations is in china mah!



But somehow....Hengyuan found a powerful instrument to kon....in the form of long term derivative loh!

Like that not much different....both also can kon loh!

Posted by CharlesT > 24 seconds ago | Report Abuse

His nephew was the Auditor of Xinquan then so he was very sure of the cash in bank balance of ard RM1.50+.

I think that's part of the reason SSLee bought Xinquan too.

Pardon me, when people gets elder they like to talk grandmother story.

Of course HY is not the same with Xinquan lah. Their petrol stations in Msia are all real one.

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 11:20 | Report Abuse

Another funny thing i noted....

Why Sifu Probability is always with Sifu OTB in all the previous pump n dump plays........

Posted by OTB > 2022-09-03 11:21 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 11:22 | Report Abuse

But so far all Chinaman's Cos in Bursa is no good woh..

Can Sifu OTB cares to name one good one?? Dont mention HY will do

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 11:23 | Report Abuse

The fact is Hengyuan is losing billion from its hedging mah!

The fact is hengyuan is incurring billion of loan bcos of this huge hedging play loh!

Posted by OTB > 2022-09-03 11:26 | Report Abuse

Posted by CharlesT > 49 seconds ago | Report Abuse

But so far all Chinaman's Cos in Bursa is no good woh..
Can Sifu OTB cares to name one good one?? Dont mention HY will do
--------------
I invest in very good fundamental stocks only.
The rest I do not know.
You should know my stock selection criteria.
I never invest in Xinquan and others, hence I do not know.
I am very focus on good fundamental stocks only.
Thank you.

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 11:27 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/rhinvest/2015-09-29-story83603-Listed_China_Companies_in_Malaysia_Market

Any good one ah?