Posted by tehka > 2022-09-03 11:28 | Report Abuse

In 2017, stockraider cone out all the Ah Fah Ah Moi, pudu vegetable seller story to goreng the stock. No talk about any Chinaman kon story

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 11:29 | Report Abuse

My point is u have to be very sceptical on all the Chinaman Co in Bursa, basing on the past performance (is this a fact?)

President Xi is still very handsome or not is not my concern lah

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 11:31 | Report Abuse

Even they have a very solid EPS or cash RM1.50+ in their bank ac.....

U can ask KYY to have his advice if u want to verify so.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 11:31 | Report Abuse

That time hengyuan was just new to raider mah!

No past record of kon mah!

Posted by tehka > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

In 2017, stockraider cone out all the Ah Fah Ah Moi, pudu vegetable seller story to goreng the stock. No talk about any Chinaman kon story

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 11:31 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/koonyewyinblog/88909

Posted by OTB > 2022-09-03 11:32 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 11:34 | Report Abuse

Some of the reasons why KYY bought Xinquan...

In the latest annual report 2015, you can see that its net tangible asset is Rm 3.42 with about Rm 3.00 cash per share. Its EPS is 42 sen in financial year ending June 2015 and it is selling at about 60 sen, P/E less than 2.

Most of the investors do not believe the audited accounts is true because the company gave out very little dividend.

I believe the audited accounts because one of the founders of S J Grant Thornton is my cousin.

Xingquan is listed in Malaysia and I believe our Securities Commission can protect shareholders interest.

I visited Xingquan in Xiamen a few times and I know that it has utilized all the money it received from IPO to expand its existing factory and constructed hostels to accommodate 3000 workers.

Plus the whopping cash Rm1.50+ in their bank ac......

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 11:35 | Report Abuse

I thought OTB is also is shameless mah!

Bcos we are in the same boat that time loh!

Posted by OTB > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse

I know that stockraider is a shameless liar since 2017 on his posting in Hengyuan.
He hid in Pudu market after the share price dropped.
I made million in Hengyuan in 2017, it is one of the stocks I made the most money in my life.
Never ever trusted stockraider.

A good investor never talk bad about other stock.
A good investor will make money quietly.
A good investor will not tell lies on any stock without facts and figures.
These are my slogans.

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 11:36 | Report Abuse

P/S: He never mention whether the Xinquan Boss brought him for happy hours at night or not lah

Posted by OTB > 2022-09-03 11:37 | Report Abuse

Posted by CharlesT > 53 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Even they have a very solid EPS or cash RM1.50+ in their bank ac.....
U can ask KYY to have his advice if u want to verify so.
-------------
That is the problem KYY lost back all his profit I helped him to make in 2015.
KYY did not do his homework well.
He simply talks without facts and figures.

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 11:37 | Report Abuse

At least Heng Yuan paid u RM0.10 div after they made EPS RM2.20+.......so less chances of ending up like Xinquan case

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 11:41 | Report Abuse

As per their last Q report dated 24 Feb 2017, they shows cash of RM1B+ in their balance sheet

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 11:41 | Report Abuse

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=2738092

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 11:45 | Report Abuse

KYY did not do his homework well.
He simply talks without facts and figures.

Really ah?

He flied to China several times to inspect the Co

His cousin audited Xinquan's ac

They reported cash RM1B+ in their balance sheet to Bursa....

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 11:45 | Report Abuse

Correct or not ah ???

If u have really help uncle kyy to make so much money, he should have worshipped u mah!

Normal human nature mah!

Posted by OTB > 6 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Posted by CharlesT > 53 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Even they have a very solid EPS or cash RM1.50+ in their bank ac.....
U can ask KYY to have his advice if u want to verify so.
-------------
That is the problem KYY lost back all his profit I helped him to make in 2015.
KYY did not do his homework well.
He simply talks without facts and figures.

Posted by OTB > 2022-09-03 11:50 | Report Abuse

Posted by CharlesT > 2 seconds ago | Report Abuse

It seems KYY has done a lot fact finding in Xinquan....
More than Sifu Probability in HY I guess
---------------
I know him more than others.
I know what type of standard he is.
He did not do his homework well.
He depends on others.
Since 2 generals left him, he has no one to depend on.
Hence he lost badly in the stock market.

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 11:50 | Report Abuse

Posted by CharlesT > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

KYY or Probability doesnt matter

Xinquan or HY also doesnt matter

Rule no 1 to 999 in Bursa, apply 90% discount on all China Co in Bursa

Happy Investing

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 11:50 | Report Abuse

SSLee agree ah?

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 11:52 | Report Abuse

Does Probability know HY's FC or accountants or auditors? Or any insider?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 11:53 | Report Abuse

Secret lah!

Cannot tell mah!

Posted by CharlesT > 27 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Does Probability know HY's FC or accountants or auditors? Or any insider?

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 11:56 | Report Abuse

Earlier quoted by OTB on KYY: I know what type of standard he is.

I knew what type of standard he is the day he came to I3 in 2013 or 2014

But Sifu OTB only know him after the JAKS saga in 2019

So i knew KYY longer than OTB loh...at least 5 years longer

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 11:57 | Report Abuse

I still remember KYY invited many to attend Jamuan Makan Besar Wagyu Beef in Ipoh during 2014 to promote his Rsawit, Jtiasa etc

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 11:59 | Report Abuse

I heard eventually no wagyu beef was being served then

But many paid a very costly free lunch which can buy them lots of wagyu meals

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 12:00 | Report Abuse

Ops sorry

Pls pardon me oldman likes to talk grandmother stories

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 12:12 | Report Abuse

They already started siphoning mah....from gain of Rm 1.1b....now it is a loss of more than Rm 1.1b mah!

Do u know....more than Rm 2.2b....has just disappear ah from 2020 to 2022 todate now leh ?

Posted by Sslee > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

Stockraider if HRC wanted to con you they can just siphon out realised fair value gain on derivative financial instruments of RM 1,124,316,000 in year 2020

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 12:38 | Report Abuse

Correctloh....culmulative eps of Rm 6.64 from 2017 to 2022 v div Rm 0.16 loh!

Thus just earnings from 2017 to 2022 net off dividend is Rm 6.54 per share mah!
This exclude its existing nta of Rm 3.36 per share in 31-12-2016
If u include this 2016 figure.....it will be Rm 9.9 per share loh!

The current NTA of Hengyuan per share is only rm 5.25 per share mah!
Compare to Rm 9.90 per share above loh!

That means Rm 9.90 minus Rm 5.25 per share = Rm 4.65 per share in which a big part of this is due to suspect siphoning from derivative in the form of derivative losses loh!

Posted by CharlesT > 4 minutes ago | Report Abuse

HY's past year EPS

FY 2017 EPS RM3+
FY 2018 EPS Rm0.10+
FY 2019 EPS RM0.11+
FY 2020 EPS RM0.80+
FY 2021 EPS RM0.25+
FY 2022 (FH) EPS RM2.38+

VS

Div so far RM0.16

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 12:42 | Report Abuse

Petron reported a positive position after flowing thru its hedging losses to the P&L top line, this should be what hedging operation should be all about by smoothing out its profitability but not in hengyuan case with losses run into billions ?

But hengyuan do not loh! It keep the hedging loss as no impact to EPS loh!

If we standardised the treatment like Petron....Hengyuan will be reporting huge losses loh!

Rightfully Hedging losses should flow thru P&L mah!

Thus Hengyuan performance appear very bad compare to Petron loh!

The most danger question is the hedging instrument is completely unrelated to business hedging but it is a device instrument to siphon money from hengyuan loh!

The red flags can be seen by;

1. Many qtr of hedging losses loh!
2. Very suspicious long dated of the hedging instrument loh!
3. Extremely large hedging value has been contracted mah!
4. Extremely Huge hedging losses incurred todate loh!

If the above suspicion is proven true.....then hengyuan will eventually be worthless just like Serba loh!

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 12:58 | Report Abuse

Yes if this is spend on capex....this will appear in the balance sheet & the nta per share will not disappear from Rm 9.90 per share to Rm 5.25 per share now mah!

It is likely disappear due to hedging losses loh!

Posted by Sslee > 3 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Stockraider know how much Capex is needed to upgrade refinery to produce:
EURO 4M Petrol
EURO 5 DIESEL

Both Petron and HRC already done the Capex for upgrading and this year onward will have more cash for dividend.

Lu tau boh ?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 13:00 | Report Abuse

The fear is still high risk of siphoning money thru derivative loh!

Posted by probability > 2022-09-03 14:03 | Report Abuse

ADDITIONAL EXPLANATION BY PROBABILITY:

The reason why HY shows large unrealized loss on Cost of hedging reserve (COHR) is because it has around 18 million barrels of refined products, e.g Gasoline crack spread that is hedged for next 24 months at 12.7 USD/brl margin.


This is the Refining Margin Swap Contract (RMSC) shown as USD 227 million (USD 12.7 crack x 18 million barrels hedged).

As per accounting rules, this hedged contract (RMSC) has to show the opportunity lost / gained presuming the current crack spread of these refined products at the end of reporting Q2 22' (30 June) persist indefinitely till all hedging contract matures (more than 24 months).

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR) , loss / gain: (A-M) x V

A = hedged crack spread value, 12.7 USD/brl
V = barrels volume of refined products hedged, 18 million
M = Market pricing of the hedged refined product at end of reporting period (mark to market)

Since at the end of June 22', the avg crack spread of the refined products, e.g gasoline at 31.6 USD/brl, the opportunity lost for the period of hedging is

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR):
= (12.7 - 31.6) USD/brl x 18 million barrels
= - 338 million USD or MYR 1,490,267,000

The above is what reported as (Asset 261,065,000 - Liabilities 1,751,332,000)

Out of the above a portion (which matures in 12 months) will go into 'Other comprehensive
(expense)/income' reported as Cost of hedging reserve.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-03 14:03 | Report Abuse

Now lets see what happens, when Gasoline crack drops to its usual average of 5.7 USD/brl (currently its about 7.8 USD/brl)

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR):
= (12.7 - 5.7) USD/brl x 18 million barrels
= 90 million USD or gain of MYR 395,000,000

When its a loss, COHR only shows the 'greater opportunity lost' compared to smaller opportunity gained by hedging - by locking down the margin.

When its a gain, COHR only shows the 'benefit of opportunity locked' compared to if you had not locked the opportunity available earlier.

As such, we can see why the above is not reported in P&L statement. It really does not matter - as what Rabbit2 said it becomes zero on maturity.

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 15:50 | Report Abuse

move along
from now on
This is the NEW STORY

old story of 100% Hedge Sales and Purchases is no longer applicable

=> means HRC fully exposed,
=> Die More, Die Faster


Posted by probability > 22 minutes ago | Report Abuse

The reason why i am certain the hedging is done on mainly on gasoline is due to the following:

Posted by probability > 2022-09-03 15:52 | Report Abuse

Now lets see what happens, when Gasoline crack drops to ZERO (currently its about 7.8 USD/brl)

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR):
= (12.7 - 0) USD/brl x 18 million barrels
= 228 million USD or gain of MYR 1,000,005,000

GAIN of 1 BILLION on Cost of hedging reserve in Q2

But those who understand the above, they know it does not matter and that for gasoline their earnings is always going to be at 12.7 USD/brl.....

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 15:57 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 16:12 | Report Abuse

CharlesT > 5 hours ago | Report Abuse

As a general rule, apply a 90% discount on all the China Boss's Cos.

Second, spend yr time to study the contents of the Author n try to understand n verify so.

Third, check the Author's track records.....I have seen Sifu Probability's earlier analysis in Heng Yuan 1 (2017), Lionind (Steel Party in 2018) ,I think Dayang as well (2019).....

While I cant deny his facts n figures fm his previous posts sometimes do look convincing, but the ending is all the same.

See if we shall see a different ending this round.

Last but not least, back to my first sentence (As a general rule, apply a 90% discount on all the China Boss's Cos), it's oredi being proven 100% correct in Bursa for the past 10 years.

Good luck in HY.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-03 16:13 | Report Abuse

COHR gain of 390 million from loss of 1.1 billion will cause the NTA to jump by RM5 and if you add that to EPS of RM2, you get RM 7

that means by end of Q3, NTA is above RM12...WTF!

Posted by tehka > 2022-09-03 17:02 | Report Abuse

Since there are so many unfair comparisons between Xinquan and Hengyuan, let me present to you why I know Hengyuan is not a scam.

1. About Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company
FYI, the parent company Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company is no some shady address in China.
Established in 1970, Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company Limited (SHPC) is a state-owned enterprise based in Linyi County, Shandong Province, China.
SPHC is one of the Top 100 Leading Enterprises in Shandong and one of the Top 500 Chinese Chemical Enterprises, achieving multiple accolades over the years

2. Board of Directors
Have you counted the number of Malaysians and the total working experience of the directors of these 2 companies? FYI Hengyuan has total 6 directors including the chairman and deputy chairman, 4 of them are Malaysians. Bukan calang-calang directors, here are the profile of some of them old timers since shell:
Liang Kok Siang - 35 years with Shell Malaysia, in various commercial leadership roles:
• Managing Director, Shell MDS (2016)

Surinderdeep Singh Mohindar Singh - 24 years with the Shell Group of Companies, including as:

Xinquan bod have no comparison.

3. Hengyuan is not through some IPO, but acquired 51% in Dec 2016. In other words, these chinaman actually forked out money to acquire a stake.

If anyone thinks Hengyuan is a kon, why not think Shell is a kon also?

Posted by tehka > 2022-09-03 17:11 | Report Abuse

In conclusion don't simply assume ppl are kon loh! It is hurtful to both the Malaysians working there and also the chinaman who come to invest in malaysia

Posted by stockwin > 2022-09-03 18:45 | Report Abuse

very good effort by @probability to put up this article. Be patient to allow the market to digest it. TA is poor now, hopefully it will recover.

Posted by stockwin > 2022-09-03 18:48 | Report Abuse

It would be good for both the company and the investors if the company's investor relation unit is more engaging and responsive.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-03 18:48 | Report Abuse

yes stockwin, just sapu the cw when time is right...

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 09:05 | Report Abuse

Why General Raider says Sifu Sslee analysis on Hengyuan is dangerous flawed ?

1. Looking at the balance sheet HRC hedging losses as at 30-6-2022 amounted to rm Rm 1,329M of this sum of losses Rm 1189m or 90% are contributed by just 6 mths of operation result for the latest 30-6-2022 Financial result loh!

2. HRC derivative outstanding liabilities todate is Rm 1,781M whereas is derivative assets is Rm 261m, meaning net derivative negative exposure is Rm 1,520M.....meaning the counter party should be able received payment of Rm 1,520M from Hengyuan, it is just like your share margin losses loh!

3. Then why counterparty did not ask for margin call , since HRC has a huge negative equity of Rm 1520M leh ? Yes the counter party did ask for margin top up and hengyuan already paid, this can be seen from other receivable & prepayment payout increases by Rm 1,542M for the 6 mths mah!

In otherwords, Hengyuan 6 mths operating cashflow b4 working capital changes should be Rm 939m, after less Rm 1542M derivative top up amounting to negative cashflow of Rm 603M mah!

The route to potential financial collapse of Hengyuan, are written all there in the Derivative mah!

Do not get into this trap loh! Despite Hengyuan generated record positive operation cash flow of Rm 939m, its negative cashflow from derivative losses is rm 1,542m ( which already payout as other prepayment} thus HRC negative cashflow is Rm 603M.

Most importantly, Hengyuan borrowing & derivative liabilities had ballooned to Rm 3285M from just Rm 705m as at 31-12-2021 which a staggering increase of Rm 2580M, just within 6 mths and of this sum Rm 1542M is due to margin top up of derivative losses in the form of prepayment mah!

Lu tau boh ? The rot of Hengyuan has intensified alot loh!
Be very careful mah!

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 09:09 | Report Abuse

All these Hengyuan info Raider presented is supported by fact & figures mah!

U can check it for yourself, since Raider had given direction where to Check Mah!

Lu tau boh ?

Posted by stevenckheng > 2022-09-04 10:37 | Report Abuse

hedge loss from weakening of currency ?

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-09-04 11:30 | Report Abuse

Is the non stop malicious attack on HY done in good faith? The modus operandi tell you NO!

Since June 2022, a group of Agents coordinated malicious attacks on HY with ulterior motives . The Agents have been spamming days and nights with all sorts of disinformation, half baked stories and baseless assumptions , effectively driving good stock to far lower that its fair value.

The Agents are capitalizing on the fragile market sentiment and serious lack of market liquidity to drive away whatever little buying interest and at tge same time caused fearful and weaker retailers to dump their shares at huge discounts. The modus operandi of the agents is very obvious. If you careful study the trade pattern and observe the activity within the day you shall see the trade manipulation

Are these Agents angels to safeguard you interest ? Think carefully, They are instead preying on unsuspecting retailers.

The Agents and the people behind them are now collecting cheap shares from unwary retailers .

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 11:32 | Report Abuse

All these Hengyuan info Raider presented is supported by fact & figures mah!

U can check it for yourself, since Raider had given direction where to Check Mah!

Lu tau boh ?

Posted by Johnzhang > 37 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Is the non stop malicious attack on HY done in good faith? The modus operandi tell you NO!

Since June 2022, a group of Agents coordinated malicious attacks on HY with ulterior motives . The Agents have been spamming days and nights with all sorts of disinformation, half baked stories and baseless assumptions , effectively driving good stock to far lower that its fair value.

The Agents are capitalizing on the fragile market sentiment and serious lack of market liquidity to drive away whatever little buying interest and at tge same time caused fearful and weaker retailers to dump their shares at huge discounts. The modus operandi of the agents is very obvious. If you careful study the trade pattern and observe the activity within the day you shall see the trade manipulation

Are these Agents angels to safeguard you interest ? Think carefully, They are instead preying on unsuspecting retailers.

The Agents and the people behind them are now collecting cheap shares from unwary retailers .

Posted by vinc3362 > 2022-09-04 11:32 | Report Abuse

stockraider

They already started siphoning mah....from gain of Rm 1.1b....now it is a loss of more than Rm 1.1b mah!

Do u know....more than Rm 2.2b....has just disappear ah from 2020 to 2022 todate now leh ?
_________________________________________________
Stockraider, these are serious allegations.
Since you are so confident of above repeated allegations, please file reports with MACC or Securities Commission of Malaysia.
Don't chicken out eh..............

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 11:54 | Report Abuse

The reasons why Raider need to uncovered the hidden truth about hengyuan bcos;

1. Innocent party like Ahfah son (Now gainfully employ as Technology System Analyst} has started to be interested of Hengyuan bcos of the huge EPS of Rm 2.22 reported in Q2 mah!
Just imagine a learned person like Ahfah son started to be greedy & interested n willing to accept in gambling on bad corporate governance stock like Hengyuan, what about the rest of laymen down the road leh ?
Alot of damage to their financial health will be coming to these people loh!

2. Also Raider trying hard to save Sifu SSLEE from damaging his prestigious reputation by acting as a fool in promoting Hengyuan loh....!
U see raider has soft spot for SSLEE, he is really kind gentleman & he is trying to do great services to the Society loh!
However Hengyuan which its magic reporting & highly complicated manipulative high finance is very complicated for Sifu SSLEE (general financial knowledge) to comprehend, in addition he has been mislead by people like Probability with his droves of fake duplicated IDS followers & supporters painting a fine picture on HRC, despite its core are roting loh!

It is a relieve for General Raider to hear Sifu SSLEE has a very small exposure on Hengyuan, thus Raider suggest he completely dispose it & switch quickly to Petron for better night sleep loh!

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 11:56 | Report Abuse

Vinc3362,

Already explain mah!

Pls read carefully below loh;

Posted by stockraider > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

Why General Raider says Sifu Sslee analysis on Hengyuan is dangerous flawed ?

1. Looking at the balance sheet HRC hedging losses as at 30-6-2022 amounted to rm Rm 1,329M of this sum of losses Rm 1189m or 90% are contributed by just 6 mths of operation result for the latest 30-6-2022 Financial result loh!

2. HRC derivative outstanding liabilities todate is Rm 1,781M whereas is derivative assets is Rm 261m, meaning net derivative negative exposure is Rm 1,520M.....meaning the counter party should be able received payment of Rm 1,520M from Hengyuan, it is just like your share margin losses loh!

3. Then why counterparty did not ask for margin call , since HRC has a huge negative equity of Rm 1520M leh ? Yes the counter party did ask for margin top up and hengyuan already paid, this can be seen from other receivable & prepayment payout increases by Rm 1,542M for the 6 mths mah!

In otherwords, Hengyuan 6 mths operating cashflow b4 working capital changes should be Rm 939m, after less Rm 1542M derivative top up amounting to negative cashflow of Rm 603M mah!

The route to potential financial collapse of Hengyuan, are written all there in the Derivative mah!

Do not get into this trap loh! Despite Hengyuan generated record positive operation cash flow of Rm 939m, its negative cashflow from derivative losses is rm 1,542m ( which already payout as other prepayment} thus HRC negative cashflow is Rm 603M.

Most importantly, Hengyuan borrowing & derivative liabilities had ballooned to Rm 3285M from just Rm 705m as at 31-12-2021 which a staggering increase of Rm 2580M, just within 6 mths and of this sum Rm 1542M is due to margin top up of derivative losses in the form of prepayment mah!

Lu tau boh ? The rot of Hengyuan has intensified alot loh!
Be very careful mah!

Posted by probability > 2022-09-04 13:28 |

Post removed.Why?