Kenanga start to give coverage for Perisai. Kenanga may one of the local manager to support the private placement of RM1.45 per share.
INVESTMENT MERIT ' Stable earnings with bareboat charters. All of Perisai's contracts are on bareboat charter, which implies that its earnings risk is mitigated.
' The Ezra link. Singapore-listed Ezra is a major shareholder in Perisai with c.16% stake. It is the holding company of Emas Offshore, the 49% JV partner in Intan Offshore. We do not rule out further collaborations given its previous involvements. Perisai may be participating in an FPSO project for the Kamelia field with Emas Offshore's FPSO arm given the local content requirement for the project in Malaysian waters. More assets = further earnings growth. FY13 earnings will be boosted if Perisai manages to secure the Kamelia FPSO project with EOC Ltd; its FY14 net profit will see another jump when Perisai accepts delivery of its first jackup rig (expected by mid-14). It has an option (expires by Feb-13) to buy another jack-up rig for USD210m, assuming a similar construction tenure to the first jack-up rig, which will help to push up its FY15 earnings.
' Conservative consensus forecast. The consensus has forecast a FY13 net profit of RM91.7m, implying an EPS of 11 sen. We believe the forecast is conservative given that is even lower than the annualised Perisai's 1HFY12 earnings of RM93.4m. The potential earnings catalyst are 1) the transfer of Intan Offshore's assets (OSVs) to a Labuan tax structure, and 2) an FPSO win by year-end.
' Decent upside.Ascribing a PER target of 11x (1x premium to Alam Maritim (10x CY13) due to its better earnings visibility), this will imply a base case fair value of RM1.18, which still implies an upside of around 11.7%
I think Excelyou works as a remisier or dealers with local securities firm ma...hemm he or she won't tell you guys..better don't ask hehe..because he/she is the earliest person that saw bulks of shares mvments stated on the screen (as posted by BURSA) ..logics or not guys?
1.04 lah Bro. Its the high of Feb 20th and coincidently its more or less at the mid span support of Oct 8th Bullish candle. Tighten your seat belt. The short term GMMA is compressing.
Since you're a beginner, don't buy any of it. Just do paper trading. The market will be ready to gobble you up for the next 3 years after you're ready. Visit shareinvestor.com to learn up some things and also look up trend trading from various sources. Go buy and read Daryl Guppy's book on trend trading. But here's a good article that will make you rich if it really happens and follow Nicolas Darvas's advise. You don't need to wait 3 years. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/another-stock-crash-like-1987s-is-inevitable-2012-10-17
Coming months, the first acquisition could be a stake in Emas Offshore’s (EOC) FPSO. In order to exchange for stakes in the FPSO, Perisai could either issue more shares, or raise capital through rights issue.Recall that EOC which is also Ezra's 46.5% associate, was reported to have received a Letter Of Intent to supply and operate a floating, production, storage and offloading vessel to HESS, for the Kamelia gas field. EOC still needs to meet strict domestic content requirements for off-shore projects, and it could be salvaged through Perisai’s 40%-owned Larizz Petroleum which is licensed to bid for local contracts.
Calculation shows that by securing a 50% stake in a US$300m FPSO is expected to raise the company’s fair value by RM300m or RM0.53 per share, assuming a project internal rate of return of 15%, while enhancing earnings by RM38m per year.
Meanwhile, the market is speculating a second asset acquisition (besides the FPSO for HESS), but the value is unknown at this juncture. This is another project that provide a catalyst to Perisai shares
KUCHING: Drilling activities in Malaysia are likely to remain robust given the increasingly challenging field exploration to discover new hydrocarbon resources.
According to HWANGDBS Vickers Research Sdn Bhd (HwangDBS Vickers), this was a niche market with growth potential as foreign substitution could play a major role in sweeping drilling contracts for local rig owners that meet the requirements.
It also implied a strong chance for Perisai Petroleum Teknologi Bhd (Perisai) to clinching a contract for its maiden US$208 million jack-up rig which would be delivered by July 2014.
Going forward, Perisai was expected to focus on production and drilling. Its flagship mobile offshore production unit (MOPU) was working for Petronas Carigali Sdn Bhd under long-term contract until September 2013 but might be extended by a year.
“Securing contracts for its MOPU upon expiry should not be an issue given the MOPU’s versatility and mobility, as well as relatively lower operating costs,” said the research firm.
HwangDBS Vickers predicted that the company might not require a rights issue to fund the remaining 80 per cent of the cost of the first rig. The 20 per cent upfront payment was funded partly by borrowings which, the research firm had included in its model.
In addition, the management was considering its option to order a second rig which would expired by February 2013.
Should the management proceeded with the plan, a rights issue could be inevitable as the company might not be able to fund two rigs at the same time. According to the management, there were 25 rigs working in Malaysian waters, mostly foreign-owned.
Net gearing for the company was expected to rise to 102 per cent in financial year 2012 (FY12) before improving to 63 per cent by FY13, premised on strong cash flows from MOPU chartering.
On the other note, Perisai might be able to participate in EOC Ltd’s floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) at Petronas-Hess’ US$5.2 billion North Malay basin development where the gas floater Lewek Arunothai would undergo modification to meet 1Q13 first gas production timeline.
Ezra Holdings Ltd (Ezra) has 24 per cent stake in Perisai currently. This would be reduced to 16 per cent after Perisai’s managing director completes the exercise of his option. As such HwangDBS Vickers noted that Ezra might want to inject the FPSO into Perisai in return for new shares to raise its stake again.
HwangDBS Vickers expected 13 per cent earnings boost by FY14 for 4Q14 contribution before realising full-year earnings impact of as much as 44 per cent earnings growth in FY15. It went on to peg a fair value of RM1.20 per share for the company.
Volatility and uncertainty are the catchwords for 2012. The stock picks for the year by fund managers reflect a cautious outlook. Apart from stocks with defensive qualities, their choices were skewed towards stocks that cater for consumers, such as those in the food industry. Perisai is one of the counters.
THE oil and gas sector is still able to offer promising upside potential to investors over the near to medium term, backed by growing energy demand as well as unlocking of new resources, said a fund manager.
"The oil and gas story is still upholding," said Henrietta Lance, senior portfolio manager of Amundi Islamic Global Resources.
Speaking at a briefing hosted by AmIslamic Funds Management, Lance foresees that Asian energy demand will grow from 18 million barrels a day in 2010 to 24 million in 2020 and 30 million in 2030.
"In Europe, new technology is breathing fresh life into mature Norwegian and UK North Sea reserves and unlocking new resources and extending mature reserve life, while some American manufacturers have taken the decision to 're-shore'.
"Energy is not only 'defensive' in today's markets, there is also upside potential for investors though these dynamics are not yet reflected by equity markets," she added.
In terms of outlook, global resource companies with good visibility of earnings and attractive risk-reward ratios are among the key strengths.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
excelyou
1,255 posts
Posted by excelyou > 2012-10-18 11:24 | Report Abuse
Calm down period. Today TH Heavy and Pantech rise due to best results. Perisai and Alam will follow too.