Posted by madiba > 2014-12-08 21:16 | Report Abuse

I feel good and confident that when you have the major shareholder reverting back to an accumulation mode almost daily, it signals a bottoming process as stated earlier and when the market turns higher it will definitely follow suit.

It also signals what I have learn from this stock from previous experience ie when the owner sells you sell and when the owner buys you just follow the same stance with stamina and deep pocket. Its clear as daylight that with the market spinning downwards the insiders are not selling but accumulating this stock. Something big is brewing I know!

Total stock bought by Mr Chew in the last 4 days of trading amounted to 1.5 million shares on the mother and zero accumulation on the warrants. More to come. Perfect.

Posted by 1star > 2014-12-08 22:12 | Report Abuse

operator accumulation also will turn bad or worse because oil price continue to falling down as KLCI will drag many counters to low, lower and lowest.

Posted by Jackychanbv > 2014-12-08 22:47 | Report Abuse

Tipu mpay... Nanti Turun lagi...

Posted by berakah > 2014-12-08 23:12 | Report Abuse

expect to buy at 0.140 soon.....and warrant at 0.015......hehehe

Posted by MultiBillionaire > 2014-12-09 06:36 | Report Abuse

It will go below 0.10

Posted by simon84 > 2014-12-09 08:38 | Report Abuse

Cautios!
KLCI may hit 1720 and any improvement may rebound from this stage .However any failure will break below 1700 .

S1:1720 (possible rebound)
S2:1660 (if unable to hold above 1700)
S3:1600 (critical level)

R1:1766
R2:1805
R3:1845

Chart:
https://www.facebook.com/536182926525672/photos/a.536202076523757.1073741828.536182926525672/568246046652693/?type=1&theater

Disclaimed :This is not a buy or sell call but just for ''Reference Only ''.Gila Saham is not responsible for any lost or misinformation and trade at your own risk

Posted by madiba > 2014-12-09 08:39 | Report Abuse

Good morning. I love it when the bears are out otherwise how do you accumulate good average prices. In any case if you are selling at these levels obviously you are way behind the curve, losing money and missed the great selling zones way back in August 2014 to which I have sold completely earlier.

The Malaysian KLCI index has another 20-40 points more to go on the downside. Its a secular bear concentrated on the O&G counters earnings contraction so I doubt Mpay a technology counter will get to 10 cent during this period. Did you know that at the macro level the overall budget spending by the public and private sector on technology and systems related to epayment migration is one of the few growth stories in Malaysia.

To me the worse case scenario on Mpay is 16 cent, to which I will be buying all the way down if that happens whilst the upside is a secret. All I can say is I know I am going to have a wonderful CNY ang pow bonus from this stock when the hot news and earnings are out. Good luck everyone, buy or sell at your own risk.

Posted by MC88 > 2014-12-09 08:51 | Report Abuse

Thanks for all the coaching lessons Madiba. U sound like my caddy in the golf club.

Posted by madiba > 2014-12-09 09:13 | Report Abuse

@MC88 no worries but I am no one's caddy. I am known as one of the superheroes.

Posted by bracoli > 2014-12-09 09:16 | Report Abuse

Madiba when will mpay be goreng-ed?

Posted by madiba > 2014-12-09 09:25 | Report Abuse

@bracoli you know as well as I do the rule of thumb on this stock

1) No contra;
2) When the owner buy you follow; likewise when the owner sells you follow.
3) You can't go wrong buying below 20 cent if you can hold to CNY you will be well rewarded.


The rest of the exciting corporate news I cannot tell you yet as I am still accumulating. Why do I want to screw up my own average below 20 cent.

Posted by MC88 > 2014-12-09 09:35 | Report Abuse

I like the way u call yourself superhero. Okay Wonder woman thanks for showing me the way.

Posted by pzul > 2014-12-09 09:44 | Report Abuse

Madiba.. thanks for ur explanation.. last a few days i can say accumulation concentrated at 0.195.. i assume 0.195 this will be a big block..

Posted by eastlands > 2014-12-09 10:23 | Report Abuse

@madiba...no caddy, superhero, wonderwoman....u are my idol.....and i can see that you will be very successful in life - successful not only in terms of wealth but also your contribution to society.......and the fact that u write so well, i would like to think that u speak just as well.....personally i do not know u but i am yr biggest fan!

Posted by alienated > 2014-12-09 11:59 | Report Abuse

@madiba..thanks for all the great advices provided, I have been your fan since early this year and benefited from all the info you shared. Unfortunately, I no longer able to invest in this counter as it is not syariah compliant anymore. Would you care to share other counter you are advising and is syariah compliant?

Posted by Jackychanbv > 2014-12-09 12:16 | Report Abuse

madiba...gambatah

Posted by madiba > 2014-12-09 13:07 | Report Abuse

@Grace Cheong

" Seems like ghlsys is better than mpay. The price goes up steadily but not to mpay. Sad"

05/12/2014 16:17

_______________________________________

This is in reply to your comments on the 5 Dec above :

A performance comparison for this morning session between the two listed epayment play:

GHL currently down -4 cent or -5.6% to 66.5 cent;
Mpay up slightly or +2.5% to 20 cent.

GHL closing on 5 Dec was 71.5 cent thus down 7% from that date;
Mpay closing on 5 Dec was 19.5 cent thus up 2.5% from that date.

The former obviously is still undergoing distribution phase whilst the other accumulation.
Simple statistics that shows clearly which counter outperforms in a cyclical bear market.

Posted by lt54 > 2014-12-09 14:48 | Report Abuse

Madiba your comments are very constructive n inspiring. I like to follow this forum instead of glotec which is gutter rubish n write way out of line

Posted by bracoli > 2014-12-09 16:39 | Report Abuse

Logitrader veli good excel spreedshit

Posted by MultiBillionaire > 2014-12-09 20:46 | Report Abuse

The owner trap all of you in .. madiba u one of the owner?

Posted by madiba > 2014-12-09 22:49 | Report Abuse

The substantial shareholder and CEO of Mpay Mr Chew bought another 1 million mother shares in the open market today.

That is double of his past 500k shares single series transaction. The buy back everyday is not only consistent but intensifying despite the weak overall market. Mr Chew seems very keen to mop up his own shares and that takes confidence and guts when the market is volatile and tumbling. This clearly points the way forward how the stock will behave once the market recovers.

No buying on the warrants which confirms that even the owner feels the warrants are overpriced which answers my contention with a certain person named L2 previously.


http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1820921

More positive news to come. Don't get caught short.

Posted by bracoli > 2014-12-09 22:55 | Report Abuse

Madiba wat r ur thought with this type of CEO buying and dumping consistently?

Posted by 1star > 2014-12-09 23:00 | Report Abuse

1997-98 crash pattern , CEO also lost kaw kaw until sell company

Posted by madiba > 2014-12-09 23:15 | Report Abuse

@bracoli there is really no need to think too deep. Every listed company owner has the right to take profit when they feel their stock is over priced with lofty valuation or buy when they feel it is under priced with some measure of certainty what is coming in terms of earnings and corporate prospects.

Corporate governance wise at least Mr Chew does not transfer shares out to nominees through direct deals to sell like what I have seen in some other counters or utilize the RM 18 million cash in the company account to buy back his own shares through fraud schemes.This does not appear so in Mpay.

The corporate governance in Mpay is intact.

Posted by Jackychanbv > 2014-12-10 10:26 | Report Abuse

madiba,why mpay-wa down so much?why?

Posted by madiba > 2014-12-10 10:58 | Report Abuse

@Jackychanbv please read my comments earlier dated 5 Dec when the warrants were trading at 6 cent about the fair value of the warrants:

Dec 5, 2014 07:54 AM | Report Abuse

@L2 good morning. Applying your subsets into the NYU model below.

Valuing Warrants when there is dilution.

This program is designed to value cash converting warrants, the exercise of which can create more shares and thus affect the stock price. As a general rule, using an unadjusted
option pricing model like the BS Model to value these warrants will overstate their value.



Enter the current stock price = 19 cent
Enter the strike price on the option = 20 cent
Enter the expiration of the option = 0.67
Enter the standard deviation in stock prices = 25.41% (volatility)
Enter the annualized dividend yield on stock = 0.00%
Enter the treasury bond rate = 3.44%
Enter the number of warrants (options) outstanding = 183031190
Enter the number of shares outstanding = 402668580


VALUING WARRANTS WHEN THERE IS DILUTION
Stock Price= 19 # Warrants issued= 183031190
Strike Price= 20 # Shares outstanding= 402,668,580
Adjusted S = 13.07298345 T.Bond rate= 3.44%
Adjusted K= 20 Variance= 0.0646
Expiration (in years) = 0.67 Annualized dividend yield= 0.00%
Div. Adj. interest rate= 3.44%

d1 = -1.82944836
N (d1) = 0.033666234

d2 = -2.037438174
N (d2) = 0.020803076

Fair Value of the warrant = $0.03

___________________________________________________

With the mother shares hovering at 19-20 cent the warrant price will continue to deteriorate over time to its fair value of 3 cent sooner or later.

Posted by MC88 > 2014-12-10 11:10 | Report Abuse

Well there is expectation for the mother to shoot up to 30 cents next quarter with excellent set of results expected and roll out by management on e-payment. What would the warrant be? Thanks Madiba

Posted by madiba > 2014-12-10 11:56 | Report Abuse

@MC88 my reasonable projection for the mother shares TP is not as high as 30 cent by 1st quarter 2015 though I am bullish on the stock. All I can say is you will not lose money buying the mother below 20 cent and holding on for the exciting corporate news to come out Jan-Feb 2015 period.

Needless to say 30 cent will be reached sometime in year 2015 though I expect the warrants to start trading at a discount after the 1st quarter of 2015. I have zero interest in the warrants currently at this price of 5 cent.

Posted by Jackychanbv > 2014-12-10 14:06 | Report Abuse

mati lah dulu beli, 0.11- 100,00.lot

Posted by Jackychanbv > 2014-12-10 14:07 | Report Abuse

mother i pun ada, tapi price tinggi tak tahu nak tungguh lagi,atau jual habis...
pening,,,,,

Posted by eastlands > 2014-12-10 14:49 | Report Abuse

@jackychanbv - never mind all is not lost, you are a very humble person.....at least your name has the best of both worlds.... jacky chan- the icon from Hong Kong and brahmal vasudevan- the creador founder supporting ghlsys and smrt.....not bad man!

Posted by nitestayer > 2014-12-10 15:59 | Report Abuse

wooooo..... it is going to ROCK next year. :-)

Posted by MC88 > 2014-12-10 17:02 | Report Abuse

Hey Madiba. Check out YGL

Posted by 1star > 2014-12-11 12:52 | Report Abuse

cannot lah Mpay, confirm cannot get projects, guaranteed zzzzzzz whole 2015 at 18c-23c range........better sell all and switch to others

Posted by star7 > 2014-12-11 13:54 | Report Abuse

1star ,wah u r so powerful one,sum more gurantee punya,price r determine by u,sure or not ?

Posted by nitestayer > 2014-12-11 14:22 | Report Abuse

everyday + 0.005 = good la..... sikit sikit menjadi bukit....hehehehe

Posted by Jackychanbv > 2014-12-11 16:37 | Report Abuse

100% wayang sahaja...

Posted by madiba > 2014-12-11 17:48 | Report Abuse

@jackychanbv its not just 100% wayang but 110% solid support at 19-19.5 cent despite the extremely poor market condition and sentiment. I rather be investing in a stock that preserves my capital in a depreciating market whilst the rest are tanking. For example Iris collapsed another 5% or -1.5 cent to just 26.5 cent closing today.

The question is why is the major shareholder Mr Chew and the rest of the insiders mopping up all the sellers below 20 cent. Try figuring that but stay out of the warrants.

Posted by MC88 > 2014-12-11 18:42 | Report Abuse

It's time for MPAY to break 20 cents convincingly and trend upward. I have accumulated a lot at 19 cents N below.

Posted by kelvinfixx > 2014-12-11 19:52 | Report Abuse

Stay out of warrant!!!! Make way for me to buy the warrant, I am accumulating.

Posted by pzul > 2014-12-11 20:00 | Report Abuse

Go kelvin go..make sure ur bot strong enoungh..i will jump in if u has change ur bot to speed bot..

Posted by MC88 > 2014-12-11 20:06 | Report Abuse

Ok Kelvin. I m in with you too. Will start accumulating more 2mrw too. MPAY is Year 2015 stock.

Posted by deepmarine > 2014-12-11 21:01 | Report Abuse

really?

Posted by 1star > 2014-12-11 21:05 | Report Abuse

Many counters already drop kaw kaw, next week Mpay turn to drop kaw kaw, sharks will sell off

Posted by madiba > 2014-12-11 22:21 | Report Abuse

This is a good forum where you can basically distinct over time the clueless boys from the real insightful men and separate the wheat from the chaff by their substantive contribution or the distinct lack of it though loud.

Posted by eastlands > 2014-12-11 22:37 | Report Abuse

@kelvinfixx @mc88 - i admire yr guts ....i wish both of good luck in yr warrant endeavour

Posted by lt54 > 2014-12-12 00:51 | Report Abuse

Well said madiba....agreed

Posted by Jackychanbv > 2014-12-12 10:16 | Report Abuse

madiba.....gambatah

Posted by bracoli > 2014-12-12 10:18 | Report Abuse

thinking back, if mpay further slip below 19.5 habis cerita can bankcrupt liao.. thats why die die must standstill..

Posted by madiba > 2014-12-12 11:27 | Report Abuse

@bracoli what an illogical and over-simplified analysis of Mpay or the shareholder Mr Chew . Neither will bankrupt if the price drop below 19.5 cent.

Mpay full year earnings coming out in February 2015 will be strong coupled with cash balance in excess of RM 18 million whilst Mr Chew is currently buying in the market at 19.5 cent and likely to continue higher without any appearance that he is buying on margin or being force sold on the other side. So your analogy that it will go bankrupt below 19.5 cent does not make any sense.