The first priority for excess application is given to those shareholder before ex right share, in which these shareholder are all holding more than RM 1.07 the day before ex right....so these group of shareholder are in big paper loss, will they willing to come out even more capital to oversubscribed !? Yes or not.....
The second priority is given to those shareholder after ex right, in which these group of shareholder are now holding cost 75 sen, will these group-willing to come out even more capital to oversubscribed !? Yes or not.....
The last is given to those OR holder, in which these group of OR holding at cost 11 sen, will these group willing to come out even more capital to oversubscribed!? Yes or not.....and how big is oversubscribed ?
Remark: all the above group must first own OR as right before can oversubscribed and excess application entitlement is based on pro rated basis. And as told earlier main reason to buyback at last is due to big seller desperate to cash out at 11 sen, prompted likelihood high odds to get excess application
Hahaha, let's see......be positive minded always.....risk is nil other than opptunity cost.....but reward is great.....definitely worth of investing in excess application....
If so laku, OR won't drop drastically in the first day of trading.....if so laku, Mbsb won't trading at 75 sen causing those shareholder suffer big paper loss....if so laku, there won't so many desperate OR seller at last .....logic.....hahaha
Just have meeting and discussion with my private group of follower...close friend and relative......most of them augue my last min call to buyback at 11sen, instead should just realize handsome profit straight on OR.......
Well, I spend length time to explain......my point are....
1. Huge last desperate seller emerge at 11 sen.....wan to cash out in these last trading day.....warrant signal it could have high odds for excess application.
2, why I give up most of realizable handsome gain at average sold price 11.5+ sen vs cost holding 9.3+ sen.....then bought back at 11 sen again.....as most of them diffuse to follow, instead happy with their 25% gain......my point is that....I scrarified most of these profit first and opt for even higher gain later....
......how.....in theory my holding cost remain still at 9.3+ sen.....I opt for subcription at 59 sen and top double to oversubscribed.....my point is that, if I can sell back at 75 sen later after listing, I stand to reap gain 6.7 sen/share instead of today 2.2 sen/ share.... a massive 72% gain......of course, my 59 sen also need to take into account, but tag risk free interest return on 59 sen for month.....it only deduct maximum 0.3 sen/ share.....
3. How sure and odds to convince them that oversubscribed will get free excess lot....!?.....I point are.....in every right application, there is almost certain have some degree of excess as the factual is NOT all OR holder trading is to subscribe right...some may left over due to tight financial......
......take example....if valid acceptance for right is 99% .....total valid excess application is 4%......then, odd to get free excess application is 25%.... the odd will increase for OR holder if less excess application come from first priroty group of shareholder whom hold at big paper loss due to hold more RM 1.07 cost before ex right......
it is particularly obvious if there is large number of seller in the end of last day of trading.......I also point out further.......although OR holder had least priority in turn of excess lot.....but, Look at how MBSB share perfromance now......how it make disappoint to their shareholder......how bashed down and depress their share price now?.....how poor OR performance even at 11 sen today if compared to their original cost more than 20 sen.....many shareholder are in big paper loss....and unhappy.....therefore chance for them to apply even more capital for excess lot is slim....... Thus, chance for big excess application will be likely on those OR holder......even can 25% success rate, and sell back 75sen once listed will give rise to more than 5% gain in less a month....
Another factor to consider whether there is a higher oversubscribtion for MBSB rights Vs Boustead rights is the right issue price ie. much lower RM0.59 Vs RM2.55
dont forget price may drop to arround 0.6+ before right shares credit to your account, market actually see this RI no good, look at the TERP 0.88 and OR last price 0.11 you should see clearly, if it is good OR won't be discounted so much
Beso,still back to the same issue...if mbsb is holland stock then OR shall close at 0.05 or even lower as what kk123 predicted..but it closed higher instead...
If think this is a holland stock just move on to other counters....dont hv to waste yr time here...we shall reap what we sow...all will go holland with epf...sigh..
wait longer bargains is better, asking for money is alway bad for share prices, dont rush.on bad news sell quick dont hope or be in love be cold n run fast. like all events it is made worse than necessary..... dropping much much more then call for down grade....at may be a bargain price instead...... all time low last 6 years.
TheContrarian , WHAT YOU look at TIENWAH OR, will up?
and hi team or experts , I have some curious, why when MBSB issue RI many people say bad la ,no good la , no money need to ask for money , However when TIENWAH issue RI , some of them say good , they say give u chance to buy at cheap price ?
so do ANY EXPERTS CAN COMMENTS AH , i TRY TO LEARN MORE .
so the bottom line is right issue is a bad thing?since asking money from us shareholders means the company does not have enough cash reserve?and also indicate the company is in trouble?just need advice from the fellow shareholders abt this thought of mine.
@angel, both MBSB and TIENWAH also good based on my analysis..is time to collect cheap for both..just go ahead to subscribe...you are in a safe zone already as current price is consider cheap compared to their peak!
There has been many right issue to be issued among bank, public bank,RHB and Hong Leong Bank due to they have to meet capital tier 1 ratio. RI is not just issued from Mbsb..
Bino Caka , thanks for expl, and I also think mbsbs and tianwah dividend very high, do you know why they short of money due to RI but still can give high dividend everyear
And Angielim, to answer your question on Parkson, I'm afraid I don't see much hope of a recovery of their share price. There's no end to the forced selling of WC's shareholdings.
Thecontrarian. Thanks for your opinion. But parkson do everday sbb and seem increase volume of sbb. Don't you think is a good sign ? And parkson seem got doing some chgn in their parkson biz stategy . Unless wc giving up parkson.
anybody knows when is the last date to buy mbsb rights,59sen per share?how come mbsb didn't post any forms regarding the right issued?i was told to buy bank draft?really dun know how?pls help...
Portfolio now have triple exposure to MBSB now.........Bought back MBSB at 74.5 sen + subscribe all right share at 59sen + apply excess application....all in, now MBSB is my biggest stake in portfolio.....form more than 81% of total capital now......
By concentrate capital on MBSB....any 1 sen incremental gain will bring significant impact to portfolio growth.....fortune will now rely on MBSB performance......
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
hng33
20,530 posts
Posted by hng33 > 2016-07-01 18:06 | Report Abuse
The first priority for excess application is given to those shareholder before ex right share, in which these shareholder are all holding more than RM 1.07 the day before ex right....so these group of shareholder are in big paper loss, will they willing to come out even more capital to oversubscribed !? Yes or not.....
The second priority is given to those shareholder after ex right, in which these group of shareholder are now holding cost 75 sen, will these group-willing to come out even more capital to oversubscribed !? Yes or not.....
The last is given to those OR holder, in which these group of OR holding at cost 11 sen, will these group willing to come out even more capital to oversubscribed!? Yes or not.....and how big is oversubscribed ?
Remark: all the above group must first own OR as right before can oversubscribed and excess application entitlement is based on pro rated basis. And as told earlier main reason to buyback at last is due to big seller desperate to cash out at 11 sen, prompted likelihood high odds to get excess application