Wow, US cuts interest rate again, like that Malaysia will follow soon ! Lower interest rate is good for stock market and all other sector to become bullish and prosperous !
US rate cuts { indirectly affect the dollar} if BNM maintain their rate. Funds are likely to sell dollar and swap emerging countries currencies (spread between interest rate} USD may weaken and MYR strengthen. Bad for our exports going forward
13-Nov-2019 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 886,100 shares on 08-Nov-2019. 12-Nov-2019 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 786,700 shares on 07-Nov-2019. 11-Nov-2019 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 797,600 shares on 06-Nov-2019. 08-Nov-2019 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 3,000,000 shares on 05-Nov-2019.
Maintain MARKET PERFORM with an unchanged Target Price of RM4.55 based on CY20E PER of 27.7x, implying mean. While FY20 should spell out a better year for IOICORP from stronger upstream and solid downstream, at current price level, the group appears fully valued at CY20 PER of 28.3x.
IOI's earning performance has been overall unstable in last five years, whereby its earning per share overall fluctuated from 0.82 sen to 48.7 sen. Its earnings mostly has been affected by low CPO prices in the latest financial year. Dividend payout in the latest financial year totalled 8 sen per share, which corresponds to a dividend yield of 1.66%.
Despite its unstable and deteriorating earning, its share price has hit record 10 year high, defy gravity. KLCI linked stocks seems to be supported by hidden hand despite its deteriorating condition making it relatively unattractive to foreign investor. They are not stupid and they got lots of other option out there.
Based on comparison of 44 plantation counters listed in Bursa Malaysia, IOI is shown to be one of the TOP 8 plantation counters worthy to pay attention to and potentially invest in. IOI stands out in performance indicators such as having high market capitalization (RM 29,538 million), high cash flow reserve (RM 2,599 million) and high trading volume in the latest financial year.
Covid-19 make economy slown down fundamental company will metamorphism and company with high debt will the time to collapse.Expect local and foreign funds money would not flow in big cap and mid cap stock because everybody scare buy high losses money . In this few month expect Funds manager money would flow out in bigcap and midcap stocks and will short selling midcap stocks for make money so now no prospects cannot buy and hold. market stock RM50 drop to RM25,followed RM25 drop to RM10, followed RM10 drop to RM5,RM5.00 drop to RM 2.00 ,followed RM2.00 drop RM1.00,followed RM1.00 drop to 50 cent,followed 50 cent drop to 20cent ,followed 20 cent drop to 10cent ,followed 10cent drop to bottom. High debt company cannot hold ,high prices stock cannot hold , market never sleep money never sleep just buy bottom low prices with cash rich company . This is a opportunity markets smarts money no longer will flows in cheaper stocks market will goreng lows price stock at bottom..
IOI dragged down by forex loss on USD denominated loans. Companies with USD denominated loans will be hit. Last year MYR trading at 4.09 - 4.10. March 31 MYR drop and depreciated to 4.38 - 4.40
MPOB will issue a compound followed by licence suspension or termination for operators of estates and palm oil mills who have not yet commenced the process of MSPO certification on Jan 1, 2021.
Jan 1, 2020, the government fixed the date of implementation of mandatory MSPO certification. In line with the mandatory implementation, all parties in the palm oil industry including smallholders, must implement MSPO certification at their premises.
Long time ago in Malaysia timber failed, coco failed, rubber failed (now very hard to see rubber trees), then now palm oil like puah cheh si (struggling to stay alive), what else can malaysia do ?
Plantation - Key Takeaways From Globoil's Webinar Date: 9th October 2020
Solvent Extractors Association of India organised a webinar yesterday titled “World Price Outlook for Vegetable Oils and Meals”. There were three speakers i.e. Thomas Mielke from Oil World, Dorab Mistry from Godrej International and James Fry from LMC International. Here are the key takeaways from the webinar: -
James Fry said that rains and good palm prices would encourage better estate maintenance in Malaysia and Indonesia, leading to improved palm production in year 2021F. Rains would boost CPO supply in early-2021F and in the meantime, there would be a seasonal pick-up in production in 4Q2020. Peak palm production may be delayed by a month or two from the usual month of October or November in Malaysia.
In terms of demand, many companies in the HORECA sector (hotels, restaurants and catering) may not survive without government support. Families in low income countries may be trading down to smaller bottles of cooking oil. James Fry did not give a price forecast.
Thomas Mielke said that CPO prices may hover around US$700/tonne (RM2,905/tonne) in 1H2021. He forecasts global production of palm oil to increase by 3.5mil to 4mil tonnes in 2021F. CPO output in Indonesia is estimated to rise by 3mil tonnes in 2021F from about 43mil tonnes in 2020E. Thomas Mielke expects CPO production in Malaysia to be flat in 2021F.
He added that global soybean supply is ample currently in spite of weather-related losses in the US. He expects world soybean supply to increase by 21mil tonnes in 2020E/2021F as Brazil is envisaged to record a record output of 132.5mil tonnes (2019/2020E: 126.5mil tonnes).
Dorab Mistry believes that CPO production in Malaysia would be flat at 19.9mil tonnes in 2020E compared with market expectations of a decline. We believe that this implies that 4Q2020 production would be strong as Malaysia’s CPO output fell by 4.7% YoY in 8M2020. He did not give a production forecast for 2021F although he said that palm supply would be good.
Dorab has suggested a dynamic biodiesel mandate to the Indonesia government whereby if CPO prices exceed US$600/tonne, the biodiesel mandate would be reduced to B25 from B30. If CPO prices exceed US$700/tonne, the biodiesel mandate would be reduced further to B20. With this, the biodiesel mandate would still be implemented but at the same time, the smallholders would not be affected by the CPO export levy. Currently, Indonesia implements the B30 biodiesel mandate with subsidies from the CPO export levy of US$55/tonne.
Kalyana further pointed out that soy as a vegetable oil with the largest terrestrial footprint in the world, was able to avoid the spotlight.With the wildfires burning forests in South America on a scale that made the 2015 fires in Indonesia look like a campfire, the scale of soy’s impact in the world was peeled back just enough to raise global alarms.Citing independent study findings, he said the global palm oil industry, with a terrestrial footprint that contributed 2.3% to deforestation, pales in comparison to deforestation caused by the meat and soy industries. Today palm oil ranks among the most consumed of the 17 different competing oils and fats. This progressive rise up the ladder has also come with a hefty price to the industry straddled with a myriad of controversies, critics and accusations of unsustainable operations throughout the supply chain.The industry expert stressed that if there is a silver lining to the criticisms and controversies concentrated on palm oil, it has to be the fact that the industry is most ready to prove itself as a solution for mitigating climate change and biodiversity preservation.
Although they have rebounded from the trough in March, only PPB is marginally higher by 0.6% YTD among the plantation stocks. The other three plantation counters have yet to recoup their losses since the beginning of this year. YTD, Kuala Lumpur Kepong declined 11.8%, Sime Darby Plantation is down 8.3% and IOI Corp slid 7.2%.
Prevailing CPO Price as of yesterday is RM 3354. Cost of producing is between RM 1500-1800. This will be good for our farmers. So we expect more movements in this counter due to feel good effect on the latest Indian FGV Oil Palm Contract, Bullish FCPO (Jan FCOP has already breaches RM 3,144), current CPO prices plus the feel good effect of 2021 Budget which will be tabled tomorrow.
New IPO: The onshore and offshore support services provider for the O&G industry, Steel Hawk Bhd aims to list on the Ace Market!
MQ Trader 2884 views | 2 d ago
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New IPO: The largest mini-market player and a leading groceries retailer in Malaysia, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings Bhd aims to list on the Main Market!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
tkl88
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Posted by tkl88 > 2019-10-31 10:31 | Report Abuse
Fed cuts interest rates, but indicates a pause is ahead.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/30/fed-decision-interest-rates-cut.html
Wow, US cuts interest rate again, like that Malaysia will follow soon !
Lower interest rate is good for stock market and all other sector to become bullish and prosperous !
Huat ah ! Heng ah ! Ong ah !