Posted by noisyboy > 2016-01-19 12:01 | Report Abuse

we will be...its a matter of time maybe in 2 month. Not to mention public mutual also recommended this stock, and they are known to be very conservative in their stock picks.

Posted by asoh > 2016-01-19 21:59 | Report Abuse

Kaput, no spring to jump....

Posted by ETFIsee > 2016-01-20 11:30 | Report Abuse

Time for collection if $$$

Posted by graemesquires85 > 2016-01-20 18:02 | Report Abuse

Sinking ship...

Posted by ETFIsee > 2016-01-21 10:46 | Report Abuse

its raining, ya sinking ship

Posted by ETFIsee > 2016-01-26 15:57 | Report Abuse

Habis no NCY ang paw

Posted by graemesquires85 > 2016-01-26 22:45 | Report Abuse

Faster sell. Big gun disposed 500+ nos liai. Run for life!

Posted by graemesquires85 > 2016-01-27 09:42 | Report Abuse

Faster sell today lol

Posted by graemesquires85 > 2016-01-27 17:18 | Report Abuse

Big sell today. Puncture...

Posted by mark chan san chonn > 2016-01-28 08:58 | Report Abuse

discounts~! time to buy more :D

Posted by noisyboy > 2016-02-03 13:42 | Report Abuse

there is a good support at 68.5, hopefully it will move north bound further

Posted by noisyboy > 2016-02-04 13:13 | Report Abuse

good job Looyee, very true on the analysis part...let these jokers shout whatever they want, we know the company's value. I have yet to realised my gains, holding out for more, hehe.
Volume has build up btw

Posted by noisyboy > 2016-02-04 16:41 | Report Abuse

i believe their Quarter 4 results will be good. On another note, palm oil futures are rallying, more upside i guess

Posted by graemesquires85 > 2016-02-05 09:26 | Report Abuse

Temporary glory only...puncture..

Posted by Maxmin > 2016-02-05 09:48 | Report Abuse

This counter is steady.

Posted by noisyboy > 2016-02-05 11:30 | Report Abuse

graemesquires85, please go take your rubbish somewhere else. Why are you even here when you obviously are not holding the share? feel free to join other rubbish stocks forum, there you will find alot of your kind, and you can get all the attention you need there, haha

Posted by graemesquires85 > 2016-02-05 11:53 | Report Abuse

See when talking fact. Ppl not happy. Today big selling force. That y down...

Posted by noisyboy > 2016-02-05 14:40 | Report Abuse

graemesquires, shares dont move in a straight line. Somedays up some days down, thats how it works. Being a long term player we are not really bothered on day to day movement as we know it will reach our target price.
You on the other hand every time down keep shouting run and puncture, i think you are more matured then that. No need for such negative comments, if you have no interest in this counter please leave

Posted by noisyboy > 2016-02-05 14:41 | Report Abuse

Happy CNY my fellow buddies, fight on!! huattttttt arrrrrrrrrrr

Posted by graemesquires85 > 2016-02-10 10:30 | Report Abuse

Happy cny!!!huat ah!!!down ah!!!

Posted by Lee Kian Hoo > 2016-02-10 17:44 | Report Abuse

punture again

Posted by Tipster > 2016-02-10 21:36 | Report Abuse

Tdm has already lost its shine from the hay days.

Posted by graemesquires85 > 2016-02-10 23:27 | Report Abuse

Some ppl still unable accept fact n dreaming become rm1....lol

Posted by Gtrader > 2016-02-11 16:38 | Report Abuse

We are at 2580-2600 on the Apr/May contracts. Why can palm oil prices be higher?

Posted by Gtrader > 2016-02-11 16:46 | Report Abuse

1) The biggest consumers, india pakistan, middle east and china are late for coverage and has yet to buy
2) Indonesia has $400M of cash reserves to use local palm into biodiesel
3) Ramadhan comes earlier this year (may-june)
4) weaker ringgit will only be supportive palm oil
5) BMD just had a technical breakout. OI dropped, indicating it was more to shortcovering i/o new longs getting in

Most importantly, in 2014 when TDM hit RM 1 when CPO was at 2600-2800.
Today we are at 0.70/ 2550.

Potential downsides compared to 2014: Macros, and production may be lower by 10%(meaning lower revenues)

In lieu of macros, a more realistic TP should fall within 80-90cent

Gramesquires85, what are your reasons that it would not go higher?

Posted by noisyboy > 2016-02-12 10:41 | Report Abuse

Gtrader, looks like you have done your research, nice work bro

Posted by Gtrader > 2016-02-12 14:54 | Report Abuse

We are at 2625 today only going to go up

Posted by noisyboy > 2016-02-12 16:11 | Report Abuse

unfavourable market conditions worldwide, the new government levy have all contributed to a rather slow increase to this stock price...im actually eagerly waiting for their quarter result.

Posted by Gtrader > 2016-02-12 17:44 | Report Abuse

2640 as we speak

Posted by noisyboy > 2016-02-15 10:25 | Report Abuse

i was in 2 weeks before public mutual recommended it(when it spiked up to 78cents if im not mistaken.....i normally dont really join in commenting in the blogs, but i just read along here and there

Posted by noisyboy > 2016-02-16 16:02 | Report Abuse

yes it is, but then again this past 2 days market green, can't really conclude...lets see when market is red, that could give us a clearer picture. btw today volume quite high

Posted by graemesquires85 > 2016-02-16 17:38 | Report Abuse

Today volume high due to high selling force la idiot. About 1300+ out of 2000 nos being sell....

Posted by noisyboy > 2016-02-18 11:09 | Report Abuse

seems like got trend, everyday morning up to 71.5 then end of the day back to 70, maybe can try FIFO

Posted by Gtrader > 2016-02-18 20:00 | Report Abuse

Gents,

Why are we talking about 1-2 cents movement?

I just did a simple analysis on tdms fair value by comparing their expected revenue streams versus where they were trading in 2014.

I basically took the palm oil prices x the production volume out of terengganu (published in Malaysian palm oil website) for 2014.

To gauge this years earnings , i take a conservative approach and assume prices will be lower than current by 3% and production lower by 5% versus 2014.

If you ask the big players, they will tell you instead prices will be higher and production unchanged from 2014 (rightfully so).

I indexed the delta between where tdm was trading in 2014.
Below are the concluded fair values (using conservative assimptjons and taking current macros into consideration)

Q1- 73 cents
Q2 - 86 cents
Q3 - 96 cents
Q4 - 85 cents

We are not far away from my assumption values for Q1 so it makes sense that tdm stays lacklustre at 70c.

However Q2 onwards is where the action is. In Q2, production rebounds by 15-20% and prices are higher by 4% vs Q1.
These info is easily available. I invite you to do your homework and challenge my assumptions.

This (and other palm oil counters) could be the trade of the year. U heard it here first.

Posted by ljmeng > 2016-02-19 09:49 | Report Abuse

this counter worth to buy.....!

Posted by graemesquires85 > 2016-02-23 21:39 | Report Abuse

How worth is worh? Downtrend dee...

Posted by graemesquires85 > 2016-02-25 11:49 | Report Abuse

Puncture again lol to all the expert in analysis...

Posted by Gtrader > 2016-02-25 14:42 | Report Abuse

Let's see in 5-6 months time once q2 is announced

Posted by Gtrader > 2016-02-25 14:44 | Report Abuse

Dont be bothered looyee.diff ppl have different trading mindsets /timeframes when trading

Posted by noisyboy > 2016-02-25 15:17 | Report Abuse

very true, everyone has their own trading ideas....we shall stick to ours

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2016-02-25 18:06 | Report Abuse

@Gtrader Thanks for the analysis and opinion. This is the kind of comment that adds value here. Even if things don't pan out as projected, thoughtful analyses are always appreciated. These are so unlike the "Run for your lives", "Buy!! Will go up 20 sen by next month!!" which aren't backed by anything. Even if they turn out to be correct, these comments are essentially useless.

I'm watching the plantations too. Commodities are cyclical. Even though prices are depressed, CPO seems to have come off the bottom. But timing is critical too, as with the buying price. It's always a good thing to be able to buy at a reasonable level. With TDM I'll wait a bit more. Let the market shake out the weak holders first.

Posted by Gtrader > 2016-02-25 19:21 | Report Abuse

Too many traders have a hit and run mentality , and loose sight of true value. Hence you get such comments.

To me,factors that may cause further selloffs

I) macro panic.
Ii) devastating q1 results (which is a possibility) as we were hit with shit production and prices.

However if ii) happens i would load up big time as production turns around quick march onwards. Q2 prices shall be supported as ramadhan demand comes in a month early. Worldwide stocks are are drawing down. Did I also mention China and India have yet to buy?

Feels like the weak holders are mostly out IMO. Cant imagine it dropping to 60c. But let's see.

Posted by graemesquires85 > 2016-02-25 22:25 | Report Abuse

No need see la. The trend is dropping. 60 cents no problem....

Posted by Gtrader > 2016-02-25 22:34 | Report Abuse

Would you short at current levels, hypothetically speaking?

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2016-02-26 01:53 | Report Abuse

Many traders' timespan is limited to only the contra period. Or, at most, a few weeks. If day trading is their thing, then that's fine. Their capital, their choice of method. Have to say that I do indulge in very short-term trading too at times. At the same time, I do have a specific portfolio with the allocated capital for counters that I believe have businesses that should still be around at least 10 years from now. Regardless if there's a worldwide severe recession.

I see TDM as one of the potentials. This isn't a counter that will create much excitement among traders. As mentioned in the previous comment, there will be the time when investors start to favour plantations again, and I'd want to have these counters when they are prepared to pay a premium. Whether it will go to 0.60 or below again, no one knows. But there is one thing that we should take note of: CPO had likely found the floor when it went to RM1,900 or so some months ago. If that's the case, then it's reasonable to expect better results in the future. Subject to production, of course.

Have to come in and buy sooner or later. Must be realistic and not be too hopeful about "the best case scenario" - buying, and it later turns out to be the best price possible. Most likely it will drop...and then turn north. This kind of counter requires commitment - once I decide to buy, must be prepared to wait. And ignoring the daily price movements.

Posted by Maxmin > 2016-02-26 09:46 | Report Abuse

on boat.

Posted by VenFx > 2016-02-29 21:16 | Report Abuse

Solid & Growing , well diversified entity.

Posted by Harold Huong > 2016-02-29 21:17 | Report Abuse

price toward 80?

Posted by Yaw Lam > 2016-03-01 07:08 | Report Abuse

Price will fly again after public bank comes out with their new price target report.

Posted by noisyboy > 2016-03-01 15:54 | Report Abuse

Looyee how many rounds you make d? haha