Posted by 2Invest > 2023-06-20 19:53 | Report Abuse

Good to see you back James. LOL

Wish you are right Longranger.

That's ok Stoneage. I cut loss at 4.++ & it costs me 40K+-, but for sure I will be back. 🤗

Good news is if I didn't cut, today on paper will be loss about 90K 😂

Posted by value_seeker > 2023-06-20 20:07 | Report Abuse

3 is the defence for the share. Once broke will get lower. So let see how this turn out.

Posted by stoneage > 2023-06-20 20:17 | Report Abuse

Lesson learn, don't catch falling knife.

When you think its already lowest, it will become lower in coming month.

Shorties have too many ticket.

Posted by James_Bond > 2023-06-21 10:48 | Report Abuse

Come on, sell to papa! Haha….

Posted by James_Bond > 2023-06-21 10:58 | Report Abuse

Queue buy at 3.06. I dare you all,shorties to dump Hapseng shares below 3.06.

Posted by Nepo > 2023-06-21 11:17 | Report Abuse

just wait couple of days, plenty of shares below RM3 for you bargain hunting..

Posted by prudentinvestor > 2023-06-21 11:50 | Report Abuse

"Queue buy at 3.06. I dare you all,shorties to dump Hapseng shares below 3.06."
@007, you have started collecting Hap Seng more than two months ago when it was trading at over RM4.80. Must have collected several million Hap Seng shares by now.

Posted by stoneage > 2023-06-21 14:19 | Report Abuse

Don't play fire with Shorties
Casino royale fund can not beat shorties
wait 2-3 month then check back price

Posted by geary > 2023-06-21 14:19 | Report Abuse

HAPSENG has 6 business divisions, Sustainable n Cyclical consumer products n services!?
Market value range #2.00/3.00.!?
Hopefully, will add slowly, we don't know where is the bottom, unless earnings, is depleted or debt ballooned.!?

Posted by hhhiii123 > 2023-06-21 18:06 | Report Abuse

See accumulation trend now,No more RM3?

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2023-06-21 19:45 | Report Abuse

Debts too high , default maybe if rate hike !

Posted by hhhiii123 > 2023-06-21 22:12 | Report Abuse

Debt is never an issue for HS, instead they are make use of debt to make money, total of Current/Non Current borrowing is 7068mil as at Q4 last financial year, with total finance cos of 155mil, which give effective interest rate about 2.2% (155/7068), I guess I am right? The only question is HS capable to achieve the past EPS in order to maintain the dividend payout for current/subsequent year....

Posted by ivanlau > 2023-06-21 22:17 | Report Abuse

If based on forward eps 22x12 , the fair value in 2023 will be rm 2.60 . Today closing 3.10........

Posted by geary > 2023-06-22 09:25 | Report Abuse

HAPSENG, last 2Q, Net Margin, Asset Turnover n Financial Leverage are considered low.
WACC probably much higher than its ROE!?
Plus business partners, restructuring of financial services n property!?
Others we don't know what's going on between insiders!?
Forward earnings, free cash flow, dividend, n debt, difficult to predict!?

Posted by KClow > 2023-06-22 09:32 | Report Abuse

Ya agree. Looks like game over for hapseng.
Best stay away for me.

Posted by beluga > 2023-06-22 12:24 | Report Abuse

Do you guys know that once upon a time ago, Boustead Holdings a diversified conglomerate (finance, plantation, pharmaceutical, property, trading etc ) used to consistently pay high dividend while having a high gearing ? Not same but you know what i mean...

Posted by bingoman > 2023-06-22 12:30 | Report Abuse

@007 already become substantial shareholder already bcoz keep accumulate for 2-3 month ago.

Posted by loneranger > 2023-06-22 14:28 | Report Abuse

@007 keep accumulating using his month and keyboard. Don't be serious. Hahaha.

Posted by prudentinvestor > 2023-06-22 15:14 | Report Abuse

It was a tongue in cheek comment. You think a sensible person would come out with over RM10 million to invest in a counter whose future is in doubt?

Posted by hhhiii123 > 2023-06-22 20:03 | Report Abuse

here is some good news for this share, shorties just close its 3.7mil shares short position as at yesteday, I hope the left hand to right hand game is end and expecting upward trend within one or two years

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-06-22 21:38 | Report Abuse

The stock is downtrending, so, I picked up some more today at 3.08, bringing my total holdings to 3.2% of my total portfolio. Still no where near 5% target allocation. Expect there will be more lower prices to come and if the drop is big, then, will add more at lower prices. Nice that it's now below NTA.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-06-22 22:06 | Report Abuse

Price should have some reaction around RM3, where for 5 months in 2013-2014, price kept testing around there. This requires patience, 99% of investors don't have the patience to play the long downtrend game and so, when they try to catch a falling knife, they lose. I think it is unclear how price will react at RM3, whether that's going to be support to bounce back, or break through below. If doesn't hold, then, next big one is RM2.6-2.7. If not hold, then, around RM2. I expect to still be accumulating if it falls down to RM2. Trouble is, one never knows if it will break below RM3. It might also never go below RM3. So, much easier to mechanically get something for the long term around RM3+ and then, see and make sure got enough bullets.

From dividend yield perspective, at these sort of prices - RM3 or RM2.6 or RM2, the dividends are super, super, super attractive.

My personal guess is for sure, there will be a dividend cut, because 2023/Q1 EPS is the lowest Q1 EPS over past 8 years and market is spooked how future quarter earnings. HapSeng is a prudent and disciplined dividend payor in the sense that they never pay more than what they earn in dividends, and I like that very much.

Historically, its earnings have been stable and diversified, allowing it to pay nice stable dividends (with small fluctuations). But market now thinks 2023 earnings will be much lower than past 8 years, hence, penalizing the company. I feel Q1 is too early to think so because there's still 3 more quarters to go before year end.

Anyway, for what it's worth, at RM3.08, if Hapseng pays the lowest ever dividend at 25 sen, the DY is already a massive 8%+. 25 sen is the lowest ever dividend paid over past 8 years. If it pays a record low 20 sen, the DY is still 6.7%, super attractive, much better than EPF.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-06-22 22:13 | Report Abuse

EPS 2015 / 16 / 17 / 18 / 19 / 20 / 21 / 22 / 23Q1 = 42.3 / 43 / 44.2 / 46 / 46.7 / 30.1 (Covid) / 36.2 / 38.2 / 2 (Spooky).

Notice how Hapseng EPS was growing steadily from 2015 to 2019 (inclusive), and then crashed in 2020, before recovering in 2022 and then Q1/2023 earnings is a tiny 2 for 1 quarter - so, market is spooked very, very much.

But stop and think for a while. Q1 is historically Hap Seng's slowest quarter. I think a lot of the fears are overblown. With 3 more quarters to go, Hap Seng has decent 50/50 odds of pulling out a market surprise. So much bad news have been priced in, if the bad news is not as bad, this stock is likely to do the reverse sometime this year - that's my guess.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-06-22 22:17 | Report Abuse

DPS 2015 / 16 / 17 / 18 / 19 / 20 / 21 / 22 = 30 / 35 / 35 / 35 / 35 / 25 (Covid) / 35 / 30.

Notice how Hapseng lowest ever DPS was 25 sen during 2020 Covid year.

At RM3, 3% dividend yield equate to 9 sen.

Meaning if you buy and treat this like an FD that pays 3%, and present your buy price at lower prices, and not watch your "FD", you will eventually do well just collecting your dividends long term and get a result better than FD. Diversified stocks like this back by a diversified range of business, it is better than FD at this kind of prices.

But never bet a big part of your portfolio - for me, it's worth 5% of my portfolio. A good diversified bet.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-06-22 22:20 | Report Abuse

Institutional funds cannot afford to buy in a downtrend and show a poor quarterly result.
But the advantage of individual investor is that I never measure my performance on a quarterly basis or even on yearly basis on market prices - it's a folly game. Instead, I measure on how much dividend yield I get.
So, if you have a multi year outlook, on a diversified range of portfolio, you can't help but get a good result if you do things like this.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-06-22 22:25 | Report Abuse

Appreciate there's lot of traders here. I'm not a trader. So, I never cut loss. I also rarely sell. I'm an investor who likes to collect real, profitable, cash generating businesses that pays dividends, and I like to own them at cheaper and cheaper prices. The only time I sell is when price goes up and the dividend yield shrinks and shrinks and shrinks that when it is over-valued, then, I let go. So, lower prices is to accumulate, high enough higher prices is time to start to de-cumulate (i.e. let go very slowly at higher and higher and higher prices). I never cut loss.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-06-22 22:27 | Report Abuse

However, because I own over 40+ diversified businesses, there is maybe 1 or 2 stocks in the past where I stopped buying at lower prices because I was wrong about the future business prospects. They never hurt me more than 1% of my portfolio at the worst so far.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-06-22 22:29 | Report Abuse

To illustrate (for those who are strong in simple mathematics).
My ownership of Hap Seng is 3.2% of my portfolio with an average price of below RM3.3. (let's use 3.3 for simplicity).
Let say I am wrong 20% and Hap Seng falls down to 2.64, around the RM2.6-2.7 support price.
My loss = 20% x 3.2% = 0.6% of capital - I don't lose sleep or even bother to watch the price.
Instead, I focus on its dividends.
And note, it is extremely hard to lose 1% capital.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-06-22 22:31 | Report Abuse

However, if there is another Asian Financial Crisis, or a Global Financial Crisis, or another Covid pandemic, market sell of like mad. Then, everything you own crashes including 40+ businesses. Then, if market crashes 20%, your portfolio should lose a bit less than 20% too (or less because it's dividend paying businesses).

But wait out 1-2 years and price bounce back and it's like nothing happened. You keep collecting dividends as these businesses keeps making profits.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-06-22 22:38 | Report Abuse

So, how do I measure against dividends? Simple. 2 benchmarks:
1. EPF - let say EPF pays 5%. 5% x RM3 = 15 sen. So, if Hapseng pays me more than 15 sen dividend per year, I win.
2. Fixed Deposits - let say 3%. 3% x RM3 = 9 sen. So, if Hapseng pays less than 15 sen, but still pay me higher than 9 sen, I am okay and can accept this because it's still better than FD.

So, compare against:
DPS 2015 / 16 / 17 / 18 / 19 / 20 / 21 / 22 = 30 / 35 / 35 / 35 / 35 / 25 (Covid) / 35 / 30.
EPS 2015 / 16 / 17 / 18 / 19 / 20 / 21 / 22 / 23Q1 = 42.3 / 43 / 44.2 / 46 / 46.7 / 30.1 (Covid) / 36.2 / 38.2 / 2 (Spooky).

If you treat your (up to 5% portfolio) investment like EPF or FD where you never check on them, what are the odds over the next 5 years that you'll lose out to EPF or FD, when this highly diversified profitable conglomerate business will lose out to EPF or FD?

I think over a 5 to 10 year outlook, the odds it would lose to EPF and FD is minimal. Very, very likely, it'll beat them well.

But never bet the farm or the house, or even the car on this 1 stock - diversify.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-06-22 22:55 | Report Abuse

If you do the above, then, "Stop buying" is a very powerful tool when we are wrong.

To illustrate. Let say I am wrong at 3.3 entry and price drops 20% to 2.64. My 3.2% shrinks by 20% too to become 2.56% of my portfolio if I "stop buying" and the rest of my portfolio is say flat. It is a good thing if your losses naturally becomes a smaller and smaller part of your portfolio. Go to other businesses and focus to win there.

And mathematically, if the rest of the business wins there, then, your losing 2.56% shrinks even further.

It is a very good thing, when you do nothing to your losses, that they shrink naturally to allow the rest of your portfolio to win.

This is simple maths to ensure winning.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-06-22 23:01 | Report Abuse

In fact, the 3.2% is against cost. Hapseng is now only 3.1% of my portfolio on Market Value basis. This means, as price falls, my Hapseng falls but because the rest of my portfolio grows slightly, Hapseng already becomes a slightly smaller part of my entire portfolio. All I did was slow down my accumulation when I'm wrong.

Posted by geary > 2023-06-23 08:31 | Report Abuse

DividendGuy67. Thanks for your good advices!
It depends on individual, age, risk management, n temperament of investors/traders!
Rules of #50/50; #75/25, 80/20 n #90/10.
Stock, Low cost Index Fund, Bond, Swing Traders, n even Time deposit.

Posted by KClow > 2023-06-23 09:12 | Report Abuse

Dont waste ur time talking investment style.
Here is hapseng forum.
Talk hapseng.
Hapseng game over.
Fell too fast too low. No support means game over.
Move on.

Posted by KClow > 2023-06-23 09:13 | Report Abuse

Natsuko hisima is right.
Hapseng is over sad but true..

Posted by KClow > 2023-06-23 09:14 | Report Abuse

RIP

Posted by scott88 > 2023-06-23 12:19 | Report Abuse

Hahaha...waiting below Rm3
only focus la

Posted by James_Bond > 2023-06-23 16:25 | Report Abuse

No one dump hapseng! All the way up! Haha…

Posted by prudentinvestor > 2023-06-23 17:11 | Report Abuse

I think it has to stay above RM3 for several weeks before one can say that its price has stabilized.

Posted by 2Invest > 2023-06-24 16:05 | Report Abuse

RM2 is possible if next quarter result remain the same.

Thanks @DividendGuy67 for details sharing. It definitely will benefits some upcoming investors.

Fund allocation is definitely 1 of the key skills for all investors.

@Prudentinvestor, hard to say also. I chip in around RM4.8 & during that time it was quite stable with about 1-2 sen up down for about 2 weeks. I find that price was reasonable if result remain above 100M profit. Mana tahu halved or 2/3 gone.

2 bulan lagi, lagi 2 bulan we will know it will continue down south or u turn.

Sabar dulu buat sementara ini. 😂

Posted by geary > 2023-06-24 19:01 | Report Abuse

Forward Ratio for HAPSENG:
1. Net Profit Margin is low.
2. Asset Turnover is Medium.
3. Financial Leverage Ratio is low.
Looking at various variables of earnings, dividend, debt, products n services, interest rates, perpetual growth rate or average 10Y, bond rate, n WACC!?
Intrinsic Value range:
+/-@ RM 2.50.!?

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2023-06-24 20:25 | Report Abuse

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/24/high-interest-rates-economic-uncertainty-boost-corporate-defaults.html

Posted by trader808 > 2023-06-25 12:56 | Report Abuse

1. In the last 3 weeks of trading, investors have been rushing out in a massive sell down to avoid a fatal stampede IN HS. In a surprise fund manager's portfolio adjustment,53 million shares changed hands at 3.62 during pre-closing. Thereafter, shares price continued to weaken and falling a little every other days.

2. Trading volumn has dwindled and volatility is non existence. Over the week still and calmness seem to have returned to HS.

3.Where does it go from here.?
Technically, according to the MACD indicators the 12 days MA line has crossed over the 26 day MA line from bottom to above on the 19th of June. In the following 4 days of trading leading up to its close of 3.11 on Friday, the graph registered 4 green histogram above the 9 day signal line.
4.This is encouraging and it indicates some evidence of buying interest amid the current skeptical fundamental of HS.

5.However, basing on the technical chart of SMA in which the death cross that was longed established and the gap between them has widened with no signs of narrowing.
continue to indicates weakness and lack of market confidence.

6. Daily trading prices have been falling much faster than moving averages and its closing prices have persistently closed below the 12 day MA lines let alone the 26 day line.
7.Last closing at 3.11 is still below the SMA lines. Technically speaking, HS is still in its long term down trend surrounded by bearish market sentiment and diminishing investors' interest and participation.

8. We believe HS is currently caged and will remain in this situation until its next quarter result announcement to determine a more definitive share price direction.

Happy trading
25/6/23

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2023-06-26 01:22 | Report Abuse

Guess harta n hapseng who will become penny stock first ?

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2023-06-26 01:22 | Report Abuse

Guess harta n hapseng who will become penny stock first ?

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2023-06-26 01:23 | Report Abuse

Once break under rm 3 than water fall to 1.50 !

Posted by geary > 2023-06-26 08:07 | Report Abuse

Jim Simons the Day/Swing Trader!
1. Find a pattern that seems like an anomaly.
2. The pattern must be statistically significant. It must have many trades and signals.
3. Don’t override the computer (you obviously can’t simulate or backtest that).
4. “There’s no data like more data”.
5. Don’t ask why. There are so many variables to explain an outcome, and most traders underestimate the vast variables that influence asset prices. No one really knows why. Thus, it doesn’t make sense to ask “why”.
6. Presumably, the win ratio is pretty low at about 51%.
7. Simons and the Medallion Fund conceal their trades. If an asset shows an anomaly at 11 AM, they conceal their trades by not buying precisely at 11 AM.
8.They use leverage because of their extreme diversification.
Leverage is the main reason for the returns.
Whale Margin Trading!?

Posted by KClow > 2023-06-26 13:40 | Report Abuse

Harta penny stock first then hapseng

Posted by KClow > 2023-06-26 13:40 | Report Abuse

😂

Posted by Nepo > 2023-06-26 16:23 | Report Abuse

waiting this to crash