Posted by trader808 > 2023-07-08 22:13 | Report Abuse

1.HS has 1.8b money market deposit and 1.1b cash and bank balance. Therefore the total cash balance is 2.9b

2. It has long term borrowing of 4.67b and short term borrowing of 2.54b. Hence, the total borrowing for HS is astronomically high at 7.21b.
The net debt 7.21b minus 2.9b is 4.3b

3. A more critical approach to evaluate the strength and weakness, safety and risk of a company is to calculate the gearing ratio. Gearing is a measurement that indicates to what extent is the company's financial leverage are funded by shareholders' funds versus creditors' fund. The higher the gearing the greater the risk.
4. HS has total shareholders' equity of 9.06b

5 Gearing is total debts divided by total equity. That is 7.2b divided by 9.06b. The gearing for HS is horrendously high at 79.5%. That means close to 80% of HS business are funded by creditors' fund. That is scary. It goes to show that the company has been spending money indiscriminately,freely and frivolously like a drunken sailor.

6. The share price of HS has fallen from almost Rm10 in its prime to Rm3.2 currently and erased market capital of 2.489b shares x (-6.8) -Rm16.9b. The number is incredibly huge and crazy, yet it is true.

7. The high gearing of 79.5% is fatal and it has consequences. Morgan Stanley MSCI has excluded HS from its regional index, Fund managers adjusted its portfolio and engaged in a programmed sell off of huge quantity in June to ease long term severe financial pain.
8. Rm3.20 may not be sustainable. So, what are you going to do Monday. Are you still monitoring and watching with folded arms without lifting a finger?.
Think about it
8/7/23

Posted by prudentinvestor > 2023-07-10 12:08 | Report Abuse

After dropping to RM3.03 on the 19 June, its lowest level in over 9 years, it has staged a modest recovery. I am quite confident that its downtrend has ended.

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2023-07-10 12:13 | Report Abuse

Congrats above , u are in the trap !

Posted by prudentinvestor > 2023-07-10 14:44 | Report Abuse

Only less than 3% of my portfolio, nothing to be scared of. You would miss a golden opportunity to make money.

Posted by skyu > 2023-07-11 09:07 | Report Abuse

Dumping begin again today

Posted by trader808 > 2023-07-11 09:10 | Report Abuse

Allocating 3% of fund in a counter is an investment strategy. Buying into HS is a stock pick.

Spreading your fund thinly over many counters is diversification to reduce risk and
stock pick comes after thorough and vigorous analysis of fundamentals, strength and weakness of balance sheet, P&L and cash flow statement for capital gains.

Good investment strategy with bad stock pick yield heartache and frustration. It is akin to having a strong bow and arrow and missing the bullseye.

Aim accurately with a single arrow.
11/7/23

Posted by KClow > 2023-07-11 19:20 | Report Abuse

No promotion can change or help a stock that has fallen from 8 to 3
Good luck to those who buy...

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2023-07-12 12:21 | Report Abuse

Opr will hit 4% eventually , super high debts will make company bankrupt , very difficult to raisr funds through coporate bonds ! This is a very high risks stock with dividen value yrap !

Posted by geary > 2023-07-12 13:09 | Report Abuse

HAPSENG!?
Hold/Swing!#75/25.!?
◉⁠‿⁠◉

Posted by prudentinvestor > 2023-07-12 17:27 | Report Abuse

Hap Seng's debt is not super high, Tenaga's debt is super high. As long as it is able to turn in profits in excess of RM600 million yearly, it should be able to service its debts.

Posted by speakup > 2023-07-12 20:35 | Report Abuse

Tenaga got Monopoly. Buffet call this a moat. Hapseng mana ada monopoly? Big difference

Posted by 2Invest > 2023-07-12 21:38 | Report Abuse

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/674559

For those who worry about debt. Reduce another 200M

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2023-07-12 23:10 | Report Abuse

See how long can tahan rm 3 !

Posted by flatso > 2023-07-13 09:05 | Report Abuse

Good news, free up some cash. Its freedom!

Posted by prudentinvestor > 2023-07-13 17:02 | Report Abuse

"See how long can tahan rm 3 !"
It has held above RM3 for more than three weeks now. If it could hold above RM3 for another three weeks, I am quite sure it won't dip below RM3.

Posted by trader808 > 2023-07-14 09:15 | Report Abuse

1.This is a different, alternative and somewhat dissenting view. HS has collapsed from almost 10 in its prime days to 3.2 currently and erased 16b in market capital in the last 6 months.
2. The bears had been overworked and now recuperating and hence, HS and its share price are undergoing consolidation with declining volumn and dwindling interests.

3. While the sharp fall has ceased and the momentum of decline had eased, but the weak undertone and the weakness in fundamental and business operation strongly persist. Hence, the continued diminishing returns and reduction in profit performance is real and imminently forthcoming.

4.HS and its versatile management has resolved to numerous assets disposals to generate cash to improve working capital and reduce debts and dangerously sky high gearing ratio.
5. Do not underestimate and much less ignore the damaging impact and negative effects of abnormally high gearing.

6. MSCI cut off you,fund managers abandoned you, bankers shunned you, institutions and smart smart investors left you.
7.If this is not resolved loyal and die hard investors could be in for another rude surprise.

8.June has just ended and the 2nd quarter result is sealed. The direction of share price going forward is greatly dependence on its profit performance. Notice that CPO price remains low, construction lackluster, trading and services sluggish. it is like Mercedes going downhill without brakes
9. Many believe it is not rosy. What about you?
Trade cautiously.
14/7/23

Posted by James_Bond > 2023-07-14 15:21 | Report Abuse

Haha… serve you right shortsellers! We r laughing to the bank! Cheers!

Posted by James_Bond > 2023-07-14 15:22 | Report Abuse

Grabbed 80% of my tickets below 3.10! Cheers!

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-07-17 10:03 | Report Abuse

My last buy was 3.08. Was hoping it would hit 3 to add but didn't. I am patient and still queueing. Let's hope the weak undertone works for next few months and price falls to fill me there :-).

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-07-17 19:53 | Report Abuse

Hapseng has a potential bearish divergence, showing likely price falls - today's intraday high is only 3.28, lower than the intraday high at the end of June of 3.29. If it fails to break above 3.29, then, the likely direction is lower, perhaps testing 3.0x. So, that's where I'll wait to add more to Hapseng. No need to chase, let price comes to you.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-07-17 20:13 | Report Abuse

For those who has written off Hapseng, consider its profitability over the past 10 years and note the resilience of Management. Here's the Maximum Quarter Profits over the past 10 years:
Q1/23 - 51m (too early to tell)
Q3/22 - 563m
Q3/21 - 381m
Q4/20 - 351m
Q4/19 - 681m
Q2/18 - 644m
Q2/17 - 629m
Q2/16 - 606m
Q2/15 - 557m
Q2/14 - 245m

So, I personally won't take Q1/23 profit of 51m and then annualize it to 204m. It is 100% certain that such highly simplistic methodology will be incorrect by the time this year end comes. Hapseng earnings is seasonal, we'll have to wait till 31/12/2023 before I write off Hapseng. For now, it's buy the dips - buying dips means I put faith on Hapseng Management to resolve its profitability problems like what it has done for an extremely long time over the past 10 years, every year.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-07-17 20:23 | Report Abuse

Btw, I like what the Monthly Candlestick chart is showing - the hidden bullish divergence looks to be forming nicely if price does not make a new low this month. Give it a few more months and the uptrend on this stock will be amazing given the chart structure.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-07-17 20:26 | Report Abuse

Hapseng is 3.2% of my portfolio. Don't bet the farm.

Posted by geary > 2023-07-19 21:21 | Report Abuse

DividendGuy67
Hapseng is 3.2% of my portfolio. Don't bet the farm.
2 days ago
Sustainable n normal earnings/GDP growth product/service= Around #20, Bull Eyes!?
That's #5% of our average capital allocated on one right business, running by right management n selling at right price!?

Posted by trader808 > 2023-07-20 22:03 | Report Abuse

1.Having spent so much time, energy and resource in analyzing HS and yet only invest 3% of total capital depicts pessimism,absence of courage and a complete lack of self confidence and risk appetite.

2. Philosophically,nothing in life is worthwhile unless you take risk.

3.We cannot live our life too cautiously that we do nothing so that we make no mistakes, or only engage in very small things in which the result has no meaningful and significant impact whether success or failure.

4. In the spirit of Nelson Mendela he said and i quote

“There is no passion to be found playing small – in settling for a life that is less than the one you are capable of living.”

5.This is not intended to belittle you. It is hope that these words of wisdom would add to your courage, confidence and optimism.
6. It has enlightened and inspired me and so did you.
Happy trading
20/7/23

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-07-22 11:43 | Report Abuse

trader808, the older I get, the more I realize that I don't know a lot of things especially common stocks. This lack of knowledge has served me very well financially to help accumulate wealth long term.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-07-22 11:44 | Report Abuse

geary, I have 40+ stocks. The benchmark is 2.5%

Posted by geary > 2023-07-23 10:55 | Report Abuse

DividendGuy67
geary, I have 40+ stocks. The benchmark is 2.5%
Benchmark of #5/10%
Not more than #20 stocks.
Swing #20%! Sometimes need to
Cut -Loss! Numbers very important, no emotions for traders!?
Average single stock is #5%, to Cut-Win, to lower average capital allocated n higher DY!

Posted by trader808 > 2023-07-23 23:05 | Report Abuse

1.How on earth can someone handles 40 companies simultaneously while Jack Ma finds it so tough to manage just one Alibaba. Your portfolio is larger than the size of KLCI index comprising 30 stocks. It is an incredulous feat with no logic.

3. Nonetheless, you are not as dumb as what you have said and what the market has thought.

4. In anyway I choose to differ and, agree to disagree with this comments.
Stay focused and loaded on a few stocks to accumulate wealth. Avoid diversification with tiny weightage.
5. All the best
24/7/23

Posted by hornbill > 2023-07-24 10:03 | Report Abuse

Smart #1 selling price very compatitive expected below 200K.

Posted by tnang > 2023-07-24 14:41 | Report Abuse

haha , trap, trap, trap

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-07-24 23:23 | Report Abuse

geary, I am an investor. This year, my portfolio outperforms KLCI index by over 500+ basis points, with lower volatility.
trader808, many ways to skin the cat. I'm glad it has no logic to you. An advantage with investing is that one can have investing size greater than traders, so, 3% of portfolio is typically larger than what traders trade, which traders typically overlook. it is actually not much effort if you know what to look for. Been doing this for decades.

Posted by trader808 > 2023-07-25 07:26 | Report Abuse

Appreciate your polite and professional response. I am glad you have found an investing style and strategy that suits and works well. The discussion, sharing and learning together is continuing.
In the meanwhile, let's move on to elsewhere in which energy and passion could be more productive and beneficial.
All the best in our journey in search of knowledge and wealth.
25/7/23

Posted by fusing79 > 2023-07-25 11:22 | Report Abuse

Hapseng forum is peaceful。 Very educated, very gentlemanly traders
trader808👍 DividendGuy67 👍

Posted by prudentinvestor > 2023-07-25 15:18 | Report Abuse

After plunging to RM3.03 five weeks ago, the lowest in 9 years, it has steadily moved away from its multi year lows and is now well clear. Naysayers who predicted that Hap Seng would dip below RM3 have now gone into hiding.

Posted by Go lucky Happy > 2023-07-27 09:25 | Report Abuse

HapSeng on the way up to it's original price.

Posted by Go lucky Happy > 2023-07-27 09:28 | Report Abuse

Better not miss the boat.

Posted by 8u29song > 2023-07-28 10:05 | Report Abuse

Ah Seng old d....can climb to 4 very lucky d....

Posted by hhhiii123 > 2023-07-28 17:23 | Report Abuse

As HS has many land bank at Klang, I guess the share price going to fly, since most land value is going surge there lol

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nst.com.my/amp/property/2023/07/935092/klang-be-proclaimed-city-soon

Posted by Eric Lim > 2023-07-28 17:26 | Report Abuse

why will fly? you think boss will sell the land and distribute the money to you???

Posted by hhhiii123 > 2023-07-28 17:33 | Report Abuse

Property segment is so hot recently, Hs is the sleeping giant lol, especially palm oil price increase also,

Posted by ken > 2023-07-28 17:37 | Report Abuse

buy keep for rm6... good div.. can keep long long..

Posted by ken > 2023-07-28 17:39 | Report Abuse

rm3.03 already bottom up..

Posted by geary > 2023-07-28 19:35 | Report Abuse

HAPSENG Market Value should be @4.00!? BUT;
Mr. Market -- he's kind of a drunken psycho!
Some days he gets very enthused, some days he gets very depressed. And when he get really enthused, you sell to him and if he gets depressed you buy from him.
There's no moral taint attached to that.” Buffett.

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2023-08-01 12:06 | Report Abuse

2nd round cut vege feast , enjoy !

Posted by Go lucky Happy > 2023-08-01 13:19 | Report Abuse

@ken, agree with you. Everyone expecting it go below $3, pls stop dreaming. CPO prices is recovering.

Posted by 8u29song > 2023-08-02 16:12 | Report Abuse

steady....no below 3.30 now...

Posted by Aubree > 2023-08-02 18:29 | Report Abuse

What's the real story behind this plunge?

Posted by ken > 2023-08-02 19:26 | Report Abuse

I m ok go below 3.30.. I can collect a little more. I won't sell in short or medium term.. I am waiting for rm6...

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-08-06 14:12 | Report Abuse

What happened with the recent "plunge" the past 1-2 weeks? Normal price action and part of the bottoming process. Having plunged so much from RM7, it tried to find a base at around RM6 in March and failed, then tried to find base at around RM5 from Mar to May and failed, didn't bother much with R4 and failed, and now tried to find base at RM3 for the past 2 months. It tries to rally but hit a resistance near the 20dMA twice and failing to recapture the resistance, needs to "plunge" down again the past few days. All these are normal price actions where there's really not much to do but just let market does what it does. As the 20dMA and 200dMA slope is still downtrending, the rebasing normally (more than 50% chance) will take a very long time - measured in several months minimum - and we'll probably know in Q4 or next year if the bottom is really RM3 or not. Given this is now coming to 2 months, and given the size of the fall, odds are increasing that RM3 could be the real bottom from a multi-month perspective i.e. investors around these prices will now start to be very interested in this stock. If you are an investor that waits patiently and let price comes to you at lower prices, this would be one of the stock to keep in the radar screen. I am not in full allocation yet because a part of me thinks there is a minority chance that it could go below RM3 sometime this year and if it does, I plan to add some more because I have a multi-year perspective.