Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 16:17 | Report Abuse

Jaks Chinese partner has designed and build most of the power plants in China.....the project has secured all the financing agreements and with an IPP agreements that has variable tarif clauses based on coal prices...I don't see what all the critics are worried about?

but losers like raider will always remain losers...that says all.

Posted by soojinhou > 2017-06-26 16:21 | Report Abuse

Can you please comment on Jaks in Jaks' forum? Please don't spam up the whole thread.

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-26 16:21 | Report Abuse

stockraider sifu ,

dui, dui,dui,...
对，对，对，。。。

luckily i did not put my money in jaks....
but did make a fast bite and run away fast...






"....Also Jaks....recognise profit....during construction period, but this is not really real profit mah....this are profit...make by own financing...and own pricing and mark up and charge ownself.. ....during construction loh...!!

That means...since it is ownself...can easily set any high profit margin loh..!!

The real profit comes only....from selling power to the govt and this is a few years down the road loh...!! "

Posted by stockraider > 2017-06-26 16:24 | Report Abuse

JAKS RELY ON ITS PARTNER THE CHINESE TO SPEARHEAD THE CONSTRUCTION, DON U UNDERSTAND...THE CHINA GOVT AND VIET GOVT DON HAVE GOOD RELATION..THEY FOUGHT A MANY WARS AND SKIRMISHES AGST EACH OTHER THE LAST 30 YEARS LOH....!!

FOR A START THIS ALREADY A MAJOR RISK LOH....!!
BESIDE U STILL HAVE THE PROBLEM OF EXECUTION AND FOREX RISK LOH..!!

Posted by stockmanmy > Jun 26, 2017 04:17 PM | Report Abuse

Jaks Chinese partner has designed and build most of the power plants in China.....the project has secured all the financing agreements and with an IPP agreements that has variable tarif clauses based on coal prices...I don't see what all the critics are worried about?

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 16:27 | Report Abuse

that is how capitalism works at its best.... how billionaires become billionaires.....certainly raider not included.

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-26 16:27 | Report Abuse

soojinhou,

never mind , let them talk, we learn whether black or white
otherwise where to learn such thing as "real" or "not real profit"



Posted by soojinhou > Jun 26, 2017 04:21 PM | Report Abuse

Can you please comment on Jaks in Jaks' forum? Please don't spam up the whole thread.

Posted by stockraider > 2017-06-26 16:30 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2017-06-26 16:35 | Report Abuse

Raider says stick to petron & hrc....they have proven good long term record to make good profit as a refinery mah...!!

Yes crude oil price fluctuate and uncertain loh....but so its everything from sugar, flour, steel, alumininum, plastic even hypermkt inputs loh....!!

The key is whether the true operating margin and stable demand...long term can support the steady business or not loh...!!

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 16:38 | Report Abuse

it figures because raider is a loser. Very appropriate.



y stockraider > Jun 26, 2017 04:35 PM | Report Abuse

Raider says stick to petron & hrc....they have proven good long term record to make good profit as a refinery mah...!!

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-26 16:38 | Report Abuse

Life is a gamble, full of uncertainties too ! Nothing can be certain in this world, at least to me.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 16:40 | Report Abuse

life is a gamble...certainties command a premium....that is why companies with more certainties command a higher PE.



y Newmaster > Jun 26, 2017 04:38 PM | Report Abuse

Life is a gamble, full of uncertainties too ! Nothing can be certain in this world, at least to me.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-26 16:41 | Report Abuse

Hope bro stockmanmy will take thing easy and be kind hearted innerly.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 16:49 | Report Abuse

tell me....why probability, raider , soo, new and so many others find it so difficult to resist low PE stocks? even when the earnings in the E is so variable, unpredictable, uncertain, ?

I call these people kiasu investors...In my long experience, I have never met a successful kiasu investor.

Posted by stockraider > 2017-06-26 17:05 | Report Abuse

Warren Buffet confirm & admit he is a true kiasu investor mah...!!

If u play mkt...being kiasu...as a starting point is very very important starting point loh....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2017-06-26 17:21 | Report Abuse

Yes i don know like this mammy simply attack good people...like probability, icon, kchong, paperlane....they are the true sifu, who are willing to share their investment knowledge with i3 readers with no ulterior motives loh...!!

Very very few like them loh....!!

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 17:30 | Report Abuse

raid

I have seen Warren the Buffalo buying companies in temporary difficulties. I have never seen him buying a share just because it reported one or two good quarters but with very uncertain prospective earnings.
I have seen Warren the Buffalo buying a share with high PE as long as there is certainties in earnings..

I have seen Warren the Buffalo buying with good business sense...never seen him doing what kiasu investors such as raider do.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 17:34 | Report Abuse

probability,

tell me...why you find shares with extremely low PEs so very irresistible?

you think the market full of idiots?

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 17:37 | Report Abuse

learn to respect the market ...if the share is going down and you don't know why......it is best to avoid.

Posted by probability > 2017-06-26 17:39 | Report Abuse

you were just talking about business...now you had jumped to market?
how am i to treat you as a single coherent consciousness entity?

please find some other form on entertainment mammy...dont spoil the i3 forums space.

Posted by Equityengineer > 2017-06-26 17:47 | Report Abuse

Have Petron and last week bought PETRON -CC and with probability calculations thinking about getting HRC too.

Market is always volatile, it gives opportunity to buy instead of buying high

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 17:51 | Report Abuse

refinery and petrol stations may look simple enough for you.

but it is complex enough for true experts such as Esso and Shell to quit the business in Malaysia.


mainly also because Petronas is the main competitor as well as regulator and they cannot even go to toilet without asking permission from Petronas.

then , of course, also a very thin margin business subject to high regulations, fluctuations in raw material prices, timing differences that can create wild fluctuations in PL, ESSO and Shell also prefer to give up their fights with Petronas.

suddenly turn bullish after a 100% rally is not the smartest move in the world.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 17:53 | Report Abuse

probability calculations....but no probability guarantee....don't forget.


Equityengineer > Jun 26, 2017 05:47 PM | Report Abuse

Have Petron and last week bought PETRON -CC and with probability calculations thinking about getting HRC too.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 17:59 | Report Abuse

same thing happened last year...somebody keep promoting Shell and Petron at the high....only to see both collapse by more than 50%...this year, it is probability calculations...devaju.

Posted by soojinhou > 2017-06-26 17:59 | Report Abuse

Stocknanny is going to clog up half the space in petron's thread with his business sense. Horrible. Wish he just go away and stop spamming the thread. Look, use your head a bit ok. For shell and Exxon, their business in Malaysia is just a tiny spec in their entire global empire that they own. They don't really give a shit about giving up a tiny speck of sand ok. Unlike Exxon, petron is from 3rd world country, the business means a lot to them. As a result, they r way more aggressive than Exxon, and the results show they r winning market share. R u going to talk about business sense next and spam up the thread with hundreds of senseless posts? Damn hate it whenever stocknanny come and hijack the thread.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 18:02 | Report Abuse

soo...you can hate me....don't hate the uncles and aunties who you are causing them to lose money on Petron and Hengyuan.

Posted by Equityengineer > 2017-06-26 18:04 | Report Abuse

I have been trading pEtron since 2015... It good share. Sold off before MTA.. Come back again this year. Jay and Probability had enhanced deep understanding in this business. Thinking about getting HRC. but the Debt is scary. thinking...

Posted by soojinhou > 2017-06-26 18:07 | Report Abuse

Uncle aunties losing their panties is not my responsibility. It is everyone for himself in the stock market. What I dislike, is reading nonsense. Do u know how much is shell and Exxon worth? Do u think they give a shit about their tiny ass business in Malaysia? Do u think they bother to put much effort to compete? So please, if u have nothing sensical to say, just don't post. It's annoying not only for me, but serious investors, to have to scroll through all your nonsense. My scroll button on my mouse is getting worn out bcoz of your nonsense.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 18:10 | Report Abuse

soo...what part of my criticism about the uncertainties of Petron/ Hengyuan earnings is not spot on?

can I short to you?

Posted by stockraider > 2017-06-26 18:10 | Report Abuse

raid

I have seen Warren the Buffalo buying companies in temporary difficulties. I have never seen him buying a share just because it reported one or two good quarters but with very uncertain prospective earnings. BUT STUPID COMPANY LIKE JAKS WILL BE A NO NO TOO HIM LOH..!!
BTW...ONE OR TWO QTR UP...IS KYY STUPID IDEA OF DYNAMIC INVESTING MAH..!!

I have seen Warren the Buffalo buying a share with high PE as long as there is certainties in earnings..YES THIS JAKS WHERE GOT CERTAINTY IN EARNINGS LEH ?? EVEN A SIMPLE CONSTRUCTION WORK IN MSIA RAN INTO DELAY AND LAD LOH....!!
ALSO VERY STUPID MALL THEY INVESTED LOH....~!!!

I have seen Warren the Buffalo buying with good business sense...never seen him doing what kiasu investors such as raider do.
BUYING INTO JAKS IS NOT BUSINESS SENSE IT IS SILLY SENSE..BUT BUYING INTO PETRON AND HRC ARE BUSINESS SENSE LOH...!!

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 18:22 | Report Abuse

idiotic raider

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 18:29 | Report Abuse

I am thinking forward a bit....

I will be getting a lot of thank you notes in the near future.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 18:31 | Report Abuse

I am thinking forward a bit....

I will be getting a lot of thank you notes in the near future....from those who sell Petron and Hengyuan now instead of later.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-26 18:35 | Report Abuse

Guess MORE thank you notes will come if you stop the thread.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 18:50 | Report Abuse

how? how to stop the thread?

Posted by Jeffbkt > 2017-06-26 18:51 | Report Abuse

We are here to learn from each other not to hate each other. There is no right or wrong so please be mature in making your own dicision. Please also don't underestimate the intellectual of others by calling them untie or uncle. A lot of them are smarter than you think.
If you don't agree with anyone comment please provide facts with figures and just rest your case. Don't force others to agree or disagree with you. Sad to see why people are so emotional and not following the rule in I3investor.

Posted by probability > 2017-06-26 18:54 | Report Abuse

hi jinhou, do you not think the Mar17 gross profit of 183M were arrived after considering a stock loss of similar value ~ 21M?

Posted by soojinhou > Jun 26, 2017 03:35 PM | Report Abuse

I did a simple proportional study and estimated the stock loss for Q2 is around 25m. Since they make around 100m per quarter, that will shave off around a quarter of eps, i.e. 30 cents instead of 40 cents. Thanks Jay for the notes from Petron AGM.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 19:07 | Report Abuse

jeff.....there is no merits in probability calculations....none, zero, ziltch....only serves to con uncles and aunties.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 19:21 | Report Abuse

I will get a lot of thank you notes from people who sell Petron and Hengyuan now instead of later.....

Posted by probability > 2017-06-26 19:23 | Report Abuse

mammy. at the age of 60 plus...i suggest you make a brain scan to check if there is any part of your brain is permanently disconnected from the others due to poor blood circulation or tumor.

split brain patients have the right hand writing messages that are completely non-coherent with thoughts from their right brain. Perhaps you have similar issues..

its not wrong to attack on people who have competing interests...but to attack someone without any gain to the self seems completely incomprehensible for a rational mind.

Thus, i sincerely advise u to make a brain scan for the benefit of yourself and others in i3.

Posted by soojinhou > 2017-06-26 19:44 | Report Abuse

Probability, I didn't go as detail as you into the computation, hopefully tomorrow is another holiday I still have time to work on it. I estimated that the stock loss for Mar17 is not as severe as the upcoming Jun30, because Brent crude dropped 6% in Mar17 vs 15% so far this quarter. So I've estimated inventory loss for Mar17 to be around 11m, which is somewhat offseted by 15m forex and derivative gains. With both non-recurring gain and loss more or less cancel themselves out, Mar17 net profit is more or less the core profit, I just deduct 25m inventory loss from 108m Mar17 net profit to arrive at eps 30 cents, which in my opinion, is enough reason for me to bet big. I'm also pleasantly surprised from Jay's notes that their main income is from retailing/marketing, not refinery, and that is fantastic news because earnings should be less volatile.

Posted by soojinhou > 2017-06-26 19:50 | Report Abuse

I use a rough calculation. According to Jay's notes, Petron made 60m in inventory gain in 2016. Opening price and closing price is 37.4 and 56.8, a difference of 19.4 For Jun17 so far, we have from 53.6 to around 45.5 today's price, a drop of 8.1. Do a simple ratio 60/19.4*8.1=25m. 25m loss is a needle prick for a company making 100m in profit.

Posted by probability > 2017-06-26 19:57 | Report Abuse

Ok thanks jinhou. Especially on the forex and derivative gains info.

30Sept16: 49 USD/brl
30Dec16 : 56 USD/brl
30Mar17 : 50 USD/brl
30Jun17 : 43 USD/brl

i was just using above figure for Brent to estimate stock loss/gain . Just incase, note that its not the % change that matters on the inventory loss estimation, its just the delta - change in price.

Even if the products are the major fraction in its inventory instead of feed Brent, the 'change' in value is proportional to the delta change in Price only (assuming the crack spread remained the same between the reporting period).

I see even the crack spread of gasoline and fuel oil did not change much between the reporting period for Mar17.


Posted by soojinhou > Jun 26, 2017 07:44 PM | Report Abuse

Probability, I didn't go as detail as you into the computation, hopefully tomorrow is another holiday I still have time to work on it. I estimated that the stock loss for Mar17 is not as severe as the upcoming Jun30, because Brent crude dropped 6% in Mar17 vs 15% so far this quarter. So I've estimated inventory loss for Mar17 to be around 11m, which is somewhat offseted by 15m forex and derivative gains. With both non-recurring gain and loss more or less cancel themselves out, Mar17 net profit is more or less the core profit, I just deduct 25m inventory loss from 108m Mar17 net profit to arrive at eps 30 cents, which in my opinion, is enough reason for me to bet big. I'm also pleasantly surprised from Jay's notes that their main income is from retailing/marketing, not refinery, and that is fantastic news because earnings should be less volatile.

Posted by soojinhou > 2017-06-26 20:03 | Report Abuse

I also counter checked Newmaster maid's numbers, I got
1Q16: 6.4
2Q16: 7.1
3Q16: 5.2
4Q16: 7.1
1Q17: 8.7
2Q17: 9.5
Numbers agree with his except for 2Q16, mine's higher. I have a paper by McKinsey&Company called "impact of low crude prices on refining". According to them, the immediate impact is improved profitability for refiners. The mass sell off, in my opinion, is a bloody rare opportunity to load up. And here's some excerpts from the paper:

"Developments in the downstream market in response to lower crude prices are generally following historical patterns of behavior. This typically progresses through three stages.

In the first stage, market volatility is the dominant force. Product prices often fall less quickly than crude as demand for products to build storage grows. This first phase normally comes to an end after a few months as soon as product price declines catch up with crude price declines.

In the second stage, supply and demand fundamentals stabilize resulting in a compression of refining margins. With lower crude prices, there is a general compression of most refining products spreads and differentials. Most spreads reflect the “cost” of transforming one crude or product into another, with most of the cost theoretically being equivalent to a loss of volume. At lower absolute prices, the cost of this volume loss declines, narrowing the spread. A good example is the narrowing of the light/heavy differential, evidenced by historical relationships between crude price and the light/heavy spread. Based on the light/heavy differential developments in the main hubs, the differential compression also seems to hold true in the case of the most recent crude price decline.

The third stage effect depends on how sustainable the new crude prices environment becomes. With sustained low prices, there will typically be a rise in demand for light products. This comes both directly from the reduced incentives to improve efficiency or boost non-oil based substitutes and from the indirect effect of lower prices on economic growth. However, this usually takes place only in the longer term, as both supply and demand typically need more time to react to changed crude prices."

We are at first stage, we are going to see $$$.

Posted by soojinhou > 2017-06-26 20:09 | Report Abuse

OK, I see now why our numbers differ slightly, I'm using 31/3/17 53.5, you are using 50.

Posted by probability > 2017-06-26 20:10 | Report Abuse

1Q16: 6.4
2Q16: 7.1
3Q16: 5.2
4Q16: 7.1
1Q17: 8.7
2Q17: 9.5

Walao....fantastic figures for Gasoline, actually the above a matching very very closely with HRC's CCS margin i calculated now considering the exchange rate at the relevant point in time. he he..

super confident now...

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 20:51 | Report Abuse

hahaha...I can't wait for the myths of the 4 blind mice to be exploded.......


then what excuse for the probability miscalculations?

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 21:14 | Report Abuse

we shall see soon....its deva ju....happened last year too.

I already forgot the name of your predecessor of last year who promoted Shell and Petron at their heights and has since disappeared without trace....................

Posted by probability > 2017-06-26 21:19 | Report Abuse

dont wait for it to happen...there is nothing to gain by seeing the results and seeing others being massacred...

we really want u to prevent it..

please help all here...

"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing"

Posted by stockraider > 2017-06-26 21:23 | Report Abuse

This conman mammy...is just a dog of kyy.....u trust a dog like mammy for his analysis meh ??

u must understand the severity loh....yes Petron and HRC have uncertainty....but it make and has the proven ability to make great many many millions...in time of uncertainty loh...now compare to Jaks what is there to show in terms results loh...other than the big mouth of KYY and his dog barking everyday loh...!

Raider says stick to petron & hrc....they have proven good long term record to make good profit as a refinery mah...!!

Yes crude oil price fluctuate and uncertain loh....but so its everything from sugar, flour, steel, alumininum, plastic even hypermkt inputs loh....!!

The key is whether the true operating margin and stable demand...long term can support the steady business or not loh...!!

DON BE SILLY...DON BE FOOLED BY A DOG LIKE MAMMY LOH...!!
NO MATTER HOW INTELLIGENT HE IS...!! HE JUST A LOYAL DOG OF KYY MAH..!!
DON LET THE BARKS OF THIS DOG, FOOL U LIKE AN IDIOTS LOH...!!

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 21:23 | Report Abuse

you are wrong....It gives me great pleasure to see that I am right all along to have avoided the low PE traps of these Petron and Hengyuan.
I can't wait for the day.




probability > Jun 26, 2017 09:19 PM | Report Abuse

dont wait for it to happen...there is nothing to gain by seeing the results and seeing others being massacred...