Posted by Kyou > 2018-01-12 13:55 | Report Abuse

investment bank cover petronm again with good prospect ..
may go more 20c later ..?

Posted by Kyou > 2018-01-12 17:19 | Report Abuse

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/329789/petron%E5%A4%A7%E9%A9%AC%E4%BB%8A%E5%B9%B4%E7%8E%B0%E9%87%91%E6%96%995%E4%BA%BF-%E6%89%A9%E4%BA%A7%E8%83%BD-%E6%96%99%E4%B8%8D%E5%A2%9E%E5%8A%A0%E6%B4%BE%E6%81%AF

Posted by Kyou > 2018-01-12 17:25 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/3042cl.jsp

Exercise price : RM 15.80

sumthg wrong?@@

Posted by ManiMari > 2018-01-12 17:49 | Report Abuse

Good wor

Posted by ManiMari > 2018-01-12 17:51 | Report Abuse

stockraider DEAR PJSEOW,

LET RAIDER CORRECT SOME OF YOUR WRONG PERCEPTION LOH;

Posted by pjseow > Jan 12, 2018 04:33 PM | Report Abuse

Thanks raider for the write up on Petron by both RHB and Public Bank.
Although Petron and HY are like brother and sister , they are different .
Petron has 580 petrol stations which do petrol and diesel retailing plus mini markets . I am switching to Petron because of the following reasons .
1. Petron earnings in 2016 and 2017 is after paying taxes. Hence its
2018 earnings are more predictable . We also expect its Q4 earning to
be very high ( due to high crack spread plus inventory gain).
SAME AS HENGYUAN LOH...AS U MENTIONED HIGH GAIN COME FROM CRACK SPREAD AND INVENTORY GAIN, IF THAT IS THE CASE HENGYUAN WILL MUCH MORE COMPARE WITH PETRON BCOS IT IS A BIGGER AND MORE ADVANCE REFINERY THAT PRODUCE MUCH MORE AND CARRY MUCH MORE INVENTORY LOH...!!

2. There is no planned shutdown in 2018. SURPRISING ALL REFINERY NEED TO SHUTDOWN FOR SCHEDULE MAINTENANCE IN 2018, THIS INCLUDE PETRONAS, HENGYUAN AND PETRON TOO LOH....!!

3. The 580 petrol stations provide a stable and more predictable
earnings . If Q4 make a record earning like HY , then we expect total
eps for 2017 to be more than RM 160 . HENGYUAN HAS MORE THAN 1000 PETROL STATION OF SHELL, IT IS AN OEM TO SHELL MARKETING, BASICALLY SHOULD BENEFIT ON THE SAMETHING AS PETRON LOH...!!

4. Petron is debt free and in a net cash position.YES THIS RAIDER AGREE BUT ONCE PETRON EMBARK ON RM 6.4 BILLION REFINERY 60K BLD EXPANSION, ITS BALANCE SHEET WILL LOOK MUCH WEAKER THAN HENGYUAN LOH..!
4. PETRON was covered by RHB and Public bank . Both give a PE of 12 .
Assuming an estimated eps of RM 160 in 2018 , then its target price should be RM 19.2 . THere is an upside of RM 6.00 which represent an upside of 45 % . IF HENGYUAN PE OF 12X AND EPS 2018 IS RM 2.70, ITS TP WOULD BE RM 32.4 AN UPSIDE OF 90% LOH...!!
12/01/2018 17:17

Posted by ManiMari > 2018-01-12 17:52 | Report Abuse

I dun agree with RHB lor. Still believe the dividend by Petronm will be higher than previous year.

Posted by moneykj > 2018-01-13 17:08 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/changwt/144123.jsp

Posted by Whey Whey > 2018-01-13 18:36 | Report Abuse

Think everyone should read this from The Star Online

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/01/12/as-oil-hits-us$70-warning-lights-flash-up-in-asia/

One of the key point in the article

Singapore refining margins (DUB-SIN-REF), which act as Asia’s benchmark, have slumped by 90 percent from their 2017 high, to below $6 per barrel this week - the lowest seasonal level in five years.

Posted by Whey Whey > 2018-01-13 18:37 | Report Abuse

Would it cause a crash on monday? Is this The Star Online trustworthy? And how many readers there?

Posted by Newmaster > 2018-01-13 20:44 | Report Abuse

Hehe, don't dream to catch this gem at lower price anymore ! It would go up and up as per RHB paper

Posted by shortinvestor77 > 2018-01-13 21:16 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/01/12/as-oil-hits-us$70-warning-lights-flash-up-in-asia/

Posted by KL Tneoh > 2018-01-13 21:41 | Report Abuse

Short term share price I m not too sure, however fundamentally this company is getting stronger gradually.

Same like oil prices, Refinery margin will go up & down and that is part and parcel of Petronm business. The most important thing is Petronm is very hunger for growth, 2017 itself Petronm had opened up around 30-35 new petrol stations (as stated in AGM). Their commercial sector (Aviation sector & Gutsul) also obtain double digit growth in term of sales for the first 9 months of 2017 as compared to 2016.

As I said above Short term price movement I got no idea but long term I guess it still a sound company.

Anyway just personal view only.

Posted by pjseow > 2018-01-13 22:14 | Report Abuse

If you look at the eps for the last 4 qtrs of Petron , the eps seems to be quite " immuned " to the wild swings of crack spreads .



Q4 2016 41.71 sen
Q1 2017 40.2 sen
Q2 2017 33.7 sen
Q3 2017 39.3 sen

The crack spreads for Q4 16 and Q1 17 are the highest despite the facts that the crack spreads are the lowest of the 4 qtrs at between 5 to 6 dollars . Q3 17 crack spreads was more than 8 but the eps was 39.3 sen.
The stability of Petron 's eps is one of the plus point for such stock.
If Petron share was to drop tremendously , I will sapu .

Posted by pjseow > 2018-01-13 22:18 | Report Abuse

sorry , correction : I meant the eps of Q4 16 and Q1 17 are the highest despite their respective crack spreads are the lowest among the 4 qtrs at between 5 to 6 dollars .

Posted by 中国大妈炒股专家 > 2018-01-13 22:23 | Report Abuse

我们大妈团也会再加注 !

Posted by pitbull > 2018-01-14 13:09 | Report Abuse

事实上，如果我们考虑到其巨大的库存价值12.63亿令吉 （可以抵消95％的借款），恒远实际上拥有超过8.5亿令吉的净现金。 这个现金水平相当于每股2.83令吉的现金

Posted by pitbull > 2018-01-14 13:15 | Report Abuse

HY inventory value ady can cover all their debt !
Dividend is the matter of time!
3042 PE can hit 12.5
IF 4324 PE hit 12.5
Which 1 more UP TREND?
3042 eps 160
4324 eps 311
Is double lo....

3042 price is 14
IF 4324 following the double eps is 32 loh!

Posted by pitbull > 2018-01-14 13:17 | Report Abuse

IF 3042 UPGRADE to MORE capacity..
ALSO bcome BIG debt company loh

Posted by pjseow > 2018-01-14 13:31 | Report Abuse

With coverage from RHB and Public bank on Petronm, I liked Petronm's consistent and growing earnings in the last 3 years despite the huge swings in crack spreads between US 5 to 9.5 dollars . Owning Petron is like owning half of PetDag with 50 % discount . PetDag has been growing for the last 20 years with consistent profit growth . Owning Petron is also like owning half of HY . IF HY earn big money in the comming few qtrs with good crack spreads and inventory gain , Petronm will also gain correspondingly in tandem with HY . Although there is a possibility that those who bet on HY will get 100 % profit in one or two years time , I am contented with just a 50 % profit from Petron because I can sleep better with a more predictable and consistent earnings from Petron .

Posted by Collin Soo > 2018-01-14 14:16 | Report Abuse

With limited modal, i am able to hold cw instead of mother share. So i hope the correction is end and will start to rebound next week.

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-14 17:11 | Report Abuse

Pjseow,
Very positive thinking

This first principle of investing is never lose money

How?

Consistent and sustainable earning
Better earning ahead after the expansion

Investing is a betting on future
I see a better future for petronm after the expansion

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-14 17:17 | Report Abuse

Do not worry about the capexp for expansion
The management is more intelligent than you and me to ensure better cashflow and earning after the expansion
Why worry or fear if you trust the management can create value for you

Posted by pjseow > 2018-01-14 19:50 | Report Abuse

Halite , I agree with you that Petron 's parent company is smarter in funding the new refinery which cost US 3.5 billion or RM 14 billion if they decided to go ahead with the plan . Petronm will not have enough money to fund such a huge investment through internal borrowing or from the profits . The parent company is committed to invest in such plan .
In my opinion , it is better for Petronm to focus on the retailing business ( like PetDag) and carve out the refinery portion and combined with the new refinery investment by owning 30 to 40 % of that new refinery company without paying a sen . With such restructuring , Petronm will be awarded a higher PE since it is 100 % like PetDag . At the same time , Petronm still own a big percentage of the new refinery company which will be like HY . The eps of Petronm may drop by half and assuming it still make between 80s to 100 s a year which is what PetDag is earning now . The share prices of Petronm will then be comparable to PetDag . Haha , my opinion only .

Posted by peterchu > 2018-01-14 21:27 | Report Abuse

Sell both petronm and hengyuan

Posted by moneyJohn > 2018-01-14 21:30 | Report Abuse

Come come, sell down for many waiting out there to collect more.

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-15 08:52 | Report Abuse

Pjseow,

Forget the HY, after all you have already finished the ride and made enough pocket money for 2018
Now is a new year to focus on consistent and sustainable earning.
Trust the petronm management, they are more creative and smarter than us. They had already proven their " boleh", why should we worry.

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-15 08:57 | Report Abuse

The first priciple of investing is

DO NOT LOSE MONEY


CONSISTENT AND SUSTAINABLE EARNING IS BETTER THAN THE MAGICAL EARNING

Posted by joeshare > 2018-01-15 09:33 | Report Abuse

Fuh superman dive

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-15 09:44 | Report Abuse

That is why i said we should buy a stock that we can sleep well before you make big money

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-15 09:46 | Report Abuse

Big money is not easy to make
You must sweat and fear before you make it

Posted by 8085208 > 2018-01-15 09:50 | Report Abuse

wat fart u say

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-15 09:51 | Report Abuse

I reduce my sweat and fear with the pocket money i made in hengyuan
So
Buy when you should buy
Sell when you should sell
Do nothing when you do not know what is best to do
But
Enjoy your pocket money is still a more difficult than to buy, sell or hold for many sifu here

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-15 09:58 | Report Abuse

Too emotional you can't think well

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-15 10:00 | Report Abuse

You are not going to sell
You are not buying CW
why make yourself so stressful

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-15 10:01 | Report Abuse

If nobody can force you yo sell
Then you will not lose
If you will not lose
Why so stressful

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-15 10:05 | Report Abuse

But talk is always much easier than doing
So i put the whole 1 year pocket money in my pocket
Then my talk is much easier than doing
Because big money is always made in the waiting and it is very difficult job without pocket money in the pocket

Posted by ManiMari > 2018-01-15 10:06 | Report Abuse

Halite, good advice and tq

Posted by joeshare > 2018-01-15 10:10 | Report Abuse

@halite is petron a stock thr can make u sleep well?

Posted by Kyou > 2018-01-15 10:13 | Report Abuse

Today huge drop again ...catch some ...
HY massive sell down again , catch some too

Posted by sheldon > 2018-01-15 12:21 | Report Abuse

PetronM is not for the faint-heart. Past price movements have indicated that it's extremely volatile. So it's rough seas for now. If you make it through then there's a possible pot of gold waiting for you.

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-15 12:40 | Report Abuse

You are right
A pot of gold
In the sea not so rough

Posted by Equityengineer > 2018-01-15 12:43 | Report Abuse

Still holding my warrants .. define them QR Ks going to be outstanding

Posted by pjseow > 2018-01-15 13:59 | Report Abuse

When HY dropped RM 2 at one point this morning , Petronm lost only 20s .
I just wrote yesterday and a few days ago , I sold HY at RM 17.00 and switched to Petronm because Petronm has the retailed businees like PEtDag which has much more stable earnings to cushion the more volatile refining earnings . This morning big drop of HY share price is in response to the online news in Star that the crack spread drop to US 6 . Petron earnings in Q4 16 and Q1 17 were more than 40 sen despite the fact that the crack spreads were only 5 to 6 dollars during that time . HY is not for the faint hearted whereas Petron earnings are more consistent. You can sleep better if you invest in PEtron compared with HY . OF course , if HY share price shot up suddenly due to a big spike in crack spread to more than 10 dollar , dont feel jealous . Just Be contented with a more slow and steady rise while you enjoy your good night sleep every night .

Posted by pjseow > 2018-01-15 13:59 | Report Abuse

When HY dropped RM 2 at one point this morning , Petronm lost only 20s .
I just wrote yesterday and a few days ago , I sold HY at RM 17.00 and switched to Petronm because Petronm has the retailed businees like PEtDag which has much more stable earnings to cushion the more volatile refining earnings . This morning big drop of HY share price is in response to the online news in Star that the crack spread drop to US 6 . Petron earnings in Q4 16 and Q1 17 were more than 40 sen despite the fact that the crack spreads were only 5 to 6 dollars during that time . HY is not for the faint hearted whereas Petron earnings are more consistent. You can sleep better if you invest in PEtron compared with HY . OF course , if HY share price shot up suddenly due to a big spike in crack spread to more than 10 dollar , dont feel jealous . Just Be contented with a more slow and steady rise while you enjoy your good night sleep every night .

Posted by Fergus Chong > 2018-01-15 14:02 | Report Abuse

I'm still holding Petronm,Petron is still sleeping... sad

Posted by stockraider > 2018-01-15 14:06 | Report Abuse

U will have the same risk investing in petron mah....!!

Yes Petron share losses lesser....but gain also lesser loh....!!

But For now only loh.....!!

What happen Petron spend Rm 14 billion on new refinery leh ??
Balance sheet will be terrible loh...!!

Raider think Petron new capex of Rm 14.00 billion for new refinery is stupid...that will mean Hengyuan is worth Rm 45.00 loh...!!

But if Petron is smart Hengyuan is worth more than Rm 45.00 loh...!!
Raider hope petron is smart loh...!!

When HY dropped RM 2 at one point this morning , Petronm lost only 20s .
I just wrote yesterday and a few days ago , I sold HY at RM 17.00 and switched to Petronm because Petronm has the retailed businees like PEtDag which has much more stable earnings to cushion the more volatile refining earnings . This morning big drop of HY share price is in response to the online news in Star that the crack spread drop to US 6 . Petron earnings in Q4 16 and Q1 17 were more than 40 sen despite the fact that the crack spreads were only 5 to 6 dollars during that time . HY is not for the faint hearted whereas Petron earnings are more consistent. You can sleep better if you invest in PEtron compared with HY . OF course , if HY share price shot up suddenly due to a big spike in crack spread to more than 10 dollar , dont feel jealous . Just Be contented with a more slow and steady rise while you enjoy your good night sleep every night .


pjseow
72 posts
Posted by pjseow > Jan 15, 2018 01:59 PM | Report Abuse

When HY dropped RM 2 at one point this morning , Petronm lost only 20s .
I just wrote yesterday and a few days ago , I sold HY at RM 17.00 and switched to Petronm because Petronm has the retailed businees like PEtDag which has much more stable earnings to cushion the more volatile refining earnings . This morning big drop of HY share price is in response to the online news in Star that the crack spread drop to US 6 . Petron earnings in Q4 16 and Q1 17 were more than 40 sen despite the fact that the crack spreads were only 5 to 6 dollars during that time . HY is not for the faint hearted whereas Petron earnings are more consistent. You can sleep better if you invest in PEtron compared with HY . OF course , if HY share price shot up suddenly due to a big spike in crack spread to more than 10 dollar , dont feel jealous . Just Be contented with a more slow and steady rise while you enjoy your good night sleep every night .

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-15 15:52 | Report Abuse

We should be thankful to stockraider and probability
If not their kind sharing of knowledge we may not aware hengyuan and petronm are great buy
But we fo it with a different plan and all had msde big money

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-15 16:04 | Report Abuse

Do not worry about the 14b expansion
It is to create value not to destroy value
You will be surprised the management is more crestive and smarter than you

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-15 16:08 | Report Abuse

Which management is that idiotic to do an expansion to destroy value.
Many hengyuan shareholders including epf and asb may had thought the same that the china man was destroying value when acquiring shell refinery

Posted by sheldon > 2018-01-15 16:12 | Report Abuse

Come on baby, come on down. Daddy's waiting to catch you!