Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-11 09:10 | Report Abuse

Haha i3lurker,
For 5 seconds no need to book room, any free toilet will do.

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-11 09:13 | Report Abuse

Theory of Hedging

Expectations
you booked a CRACK for say USD20 per barrel

Reality and Physical
you only managed to sell physical USD40 per barrel as crack climbed to USD90
coz as CRACK climbed to USD90
insurance, sales confirmations, payments, logistics freight ships and available docks were a nightmare

Hedge Gap
The Hedge Gap is the losses you sustained between
actual 40
and the
losses 90 - 20 => (70)

Gross Loss (70) + 40 => (30)

Conclusion =>
would have been better had not hedged and booked sslee's closet space for free. No need to lose USD30

Company suffered a Gross Loss and Loss far exceeds Shareholders' Funds. Company Banklap [Dragon is very happy]

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-11 09:21 | Report Abuse

Grossly over hedging is a gamble
Grossly under hedging is also a gamble

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-11 09:23 | Report Abuse

Hedging protects an investor's portfolio from loss. However, hedging results in lower returns for investors. Therefore, hedging is not a strategy that should be used to make money but a strategy that should be used to protect against losing money

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-11 09:24 | Report Abuse

Companies usually are "Totally Unable" to sell or buy physical at the hedged peak or hedged low.

The Hedged Gap if HUGE is what banklaps companies [Dragon is very happy]

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-11 09:28 | Report Abuse

Haha i3lurer,
Reality and Physical
you only managed to sell physical USD40 per barrel as crack climbed to USD90??

This one you must be a very charity man to do so or Malaysia governmemt selling RON95 at RM2.05 and Diesel at RM 2.15

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-11 09:32 | Report Abuse

sslee was expecting this

Gross Profit (70) + 90 => 20

Hedged => 20

Expectation
so 20 = 20 and sslee marries Paris Hilton

Reality
Paris Hilton marries someone else

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-11 09:35 | Report Abuse

i3lurker,
Do you know:
Hengyuan realised derivatives loss for Q2 RM 438,758,000 and culmulative 6 months RM 870,964,000 all flow thro the P&L and yet HRC acheived H1 PAT of RM 714,941,000 and Operating profit before changes in working capital RM 939,171,000?

Only the unrealised derivatives loss did not flow thro the P&L because unrealised loss is non cash flow items.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-11 09:43 | Report Abuse

The product prices during 2Q 2022 and YTD 2022 improved from an average price of USD75 per barrel and USD71 per barrel for the corresponding
periods in 2021 to USD151 per barrel and USD133 per barrel respectively.

So HRC is not so charitable selling their products YTD 2022 at USD 133 per barrel and Q2 at USD 151 per barrel

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-11 09:48 | Report Abuse

The main issue is still on Sustainability (bsides China Boss), though yr good friend expected the high diesel prices to stay forever......

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-11 10:02 | Report Abuse

normally its will stay forever until you buy those shares, just like Gloves
:)

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-11 10:03 | Report Abuse

As long as Russia cut their gas supply to EU and EU boycott Russia diesel then diesel price will remain high

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-11 10:05 | Report Abuse

At current HRC price a very high/good chance when Q3 and Q4 report come up the price will fly.

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-11 10:07 | Report Abuse

For speculations, HY is certainly a better play than Petronm

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-11 10:08 | Report Abuse

Posted by Sslee > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

At current HRC price a very high/good chance when Q3 and Q4 report come up the price will fly.

The price went limit up fm RM4 to RM6 few days b4 Q2 result, then plunged all the way to RM4.70+ now

Not 1+1 =2 kinder garden maths loh

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-11 10:09 | Report Abuse

Must panlai panlai buy low sell high loh

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-11 10:10 | Report Abuse

If say Probability's dreams come true on Q3 profit (EPS RM3.00), u think the price will limit up or jump very high after Q3 result ah?

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-11 10:15 | Report Abuse

No
No way coz Big Funds from local and overseas wun buy.
even EPF wun buy
most mother in laws wun buy

=> This is not Gloves

only limited purchases from Batang Kali gamblers

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-11 10:15 | Report Abuse

Got the Q profit prediction correct but share price pokxi how?

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-11 10:17 | Report Abuse

But why would share price come sdown after an excellent Q result (once in a century excellent results)?

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-11 10:17 | Report Abuse

after QR out will be a rout of Sell On News

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-11 10:19 | Report Abuse

The important thing is by Q4 if HRC cash flow can repay the RM 1.5 billion borrowing and the marked to market derivatives loss is negligible as on 31/12/2022 then most likely the HRC price uptrend can sustain for some time.

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-11 10:20 | Report Abuse

U see, u all engineers very panlai can do a lot of tedious n complicated calculations or profit projections chun chun on Q profit

I read book not much have to try my luck in this shares biz, predicting price movement so as to earn some humble meals (chicken rice etc), if luck is good lah

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-11 10:21 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-11 10:22 | Report Abuse

It's true HY is a more "speculative stock" than PetronM.

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-11 10:23 | Report Abuse

Posted by Sslee > 46 seconds ago | Report Abuse

The important thing is by Q4 if HRC cash flow can repay the RM 1.5 billion borrowing and the marked to market derivatives loss is negligible as on 31/12/2022 then most likely the HRC price uptrend can sustain for some time.

Ya ya if only high diesel price becomes a new normal n stay for a long long time (so is Ukraine War) n HY can make EPS RM2 or RM3 every Q for a long long time

Pray 24 hours that it will not plunge like Mogas 92 or Tin or CPO etc etc etc etc

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-11 10:24 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-11 10:24 | Report Abuse

Will it happen or not?

Let me have a start....I will go Genting today to try my luck...if I kena jackpot of Royal Caribbean today I will go next month. If next month I kena jackpot again I will believe high diesel price to stay forever n I will sialang in HY

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-11 10:25 | Report Abuse

Posted by BobAxelrod > 32 seconds ago | Report Abuse

No way can anyone compare the cyclical prices for Oil with those of Tin and Palm Oil (artificial and export ban induced)

Mogas 92 leh? Can compare or not?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-11 10:26 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2022-09-11 10:27 | Report Abuse

exactly - keyword: pray that diesel crack wont dip below 12 USD/brl (2017 hurricane harvey peak was 17 USD/brL)

despite charlest pessimistic outward expressions...his background processors keeps learning...


Posted by CharlesT > Sep 11, 2022 10:22 AM | Report Abuse

Posted by Sslee > 46 seconds ago | Report Abuse

The important thing is by Q4 if HRC cash flow can repay the RM 1.5 billion borrowing and the marked to market derivatives loss is negligible as on 31/12/2022 then most likely the HRC price uptrend can sustain for some time.

Ya ya if only high diesel price becomes a new normal n stay for a long long time (so is Ukraine War) n HY can make EPS RM2 or RM3 for a long long time

Pray 24 hours that it will not plunge like Mogas 92 or Tin or CPO etc etc etc etc

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-11 10:28 | Report Abuse

Pray won't help. Supply and demand equilibrium shifting will determined the price of Mogas92, diesel, jet feul, tin, CPO, glove and etc.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-11 10:28 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2022-09-11 10:29 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-11 10:30 | Report Abuse

I guess most Fund Managers are more dumb than the Sifus in I3....

They dont see the beauty of HY

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-11 10:31 | Report Abuse

Finally Probability wakes up to do his daily routine work in I3....

ya ya

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-11 10:31 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-11 10:32 | Report Abuse

Posted by probability > 3 minutes ago | Report Abuse

exactly - keyword: pray that diesel crack wont dip below 12 USD/brl (2017 hurricane harvey peak was 17 USD/brL)

Pray doesnt sound that pessimistic lah...it sounds HOPE....

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-11 10:32 | Report Abuse

Many IB analysts only wrote what their boss wanted to see.

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-11 10:33 | Report Abuse

Posted by probability > 42 seconds ago | Report Abuse

IB-they are certainly dumber than charlest...whose background processor is functioning

Not really dumber than lah...at most as dumb as CharlesT only...they never buy yr Q3 EPS RM3.00 story also mah

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-11 10:33 | Report Abuse

Posted by Sslee > 53 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Many IB analysts only wrote what their boss wanted to see.

Who is Probability's Boss in this case of HY?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-11 10:34 | Report Abuse

Prices held high.....many would have IB's meat for satay with the CW

Posted by miracle_trader > 2022-09-11 10:34 | Report Abuse

this is Petron forum, why are we discussing Hengyuan here?

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-11 10:34 | Report Abuse

Posted by BobAxelrod > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

Oh, you still don't know yet?....O&G is still a taboo.....not holding for long......just a small play, once in a while.

Probability will say u r wrong....dead wrong...high diesel price will stay forever....it's sustainable n ever lasting

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-11 10:35 | Report Abuse

That may be true....but HY's price would still be turbulent.......

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-11 10:36 | Report Abuse

Most likely probability's boss is his holding of HRC at high price and now looking at huge book loss.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-11 10:36 | Report Abuse

Staying high would crucify IB

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-11 10:37 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-11 10:37 | Report Abuse

Ya..HOPE...pray more...instead of posting more yr profit projections here

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-11 10:38 | Report Abuse

Posted by Sslee > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

Most likely probability's boss is his holding of HRC at high price and now looking at huge book loss.

Shhhhhhh.......keep it silent