Posted by Joe Ng > 2019-11-06 16:32 | Report Abuse

I think they are trying to push the price down by the share sale to buy at lower prices...

Posted by Joe Ng > 2019-11-06 16:32 | Report Abuse

But apparently they cant now

Posted by utopia86 > 2019-11-06 16:37 | Report Abuse

You definitely can't hold back a running horse! You need to ride on it to your destination!

Posted by factslim1 > 2019-11-06 17:14 | Report Abuse

Maintain outperform with a higher target price (TP) of RM5.71: It is pleasing that Mega First Corp Bhd’s (MFCB) Don Sahong Hydropower Project in Laos is almost complete pending testing of all four turbines and will be ready for operations ahead of the commencement of its power purchase agreement (PPA) on Jan 1, 2020 under a “take or pay” scheme. Meanwhile, MFCB’s third quarter of financial year 2019 results are expected to be released on Nov 18 with expectations of smaller construction earnings recognition given that the hydropower plant was in its tail-end stages. We raise our sum-of-the-parts-based TP to RM5.71 after removing a 10% discount attached to our valuation model with the dissipation of construction risks as well as the lower beta attached given the plant’s completion ahead of the timeline.

Posted by leong1188 > 2019-11-06 20:58 | Report Abuse

FMR won't buy back la. they are sitting with a gain of more than 250%. There is a mandate to sell once it reaches the certain level of gains. Same as cut loss, once it triggers the level, it is required to sell. That is the professonal investment practice adopted by fund management companies

Posted by leong1188 > 2019-11-06 21:09 | Report Abuse

If u guys look back all the MFCB reports, the Public Invest has always maintained its Buy call. It started covering when it was around RM2.10 level in 2014. But, how many readers would have held the stocks until today.

Posted by pjseow > 2019-11-06 23:34 | Report Abuse

power generation business is unlike other businesses which depends on supply and demand and big variations on product pricings and its costs. power generation business is a.contractual business with pricings and others stated unfront with contractual agreements. The risks are project delays and unexpected projects costs .Big Investors will not give high.PE during the early phases due to these risks. Once the project run.smoothly and near completion, higher.PE will be accorded. I am not surprised a PE of 14 will be accorded to mfcb once it started earning about 50 sen per share as projected in 2020. The 25 years contract is a solid 10 billion ringgit order book which is an envy of many.companies. These 10 billions future revenues are with good contractual margins.

Posted by pjseow > 2019-11-06 23:40 | Report Abuse

I have been buying mfcb since a few years ago at 2.20 and buying.more and more in the middle of this year . I have never sold.a single.mfcb shares. It is worth waiting for the trees to bear fruits. Why sell the plantation when the trees grow so well and start to flower. We will enjoy the fruits in the next few months

Posted by 4444 > 2019-11-07 05:37 | Report Abuse

Sure no manipulation? Why last QR sales and profit drop?
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/3069.jsp

leong1188 FMR won't buy back la. they are sitting with a gain of more than 250%. There is a mandate to sell once it reaches the certain level of gains. Same as cut loss, once it triggers the level, it is required to sell. That is the professonal investment practice adopted by fund management companies
06/11/2019 8:58 PM

Posted by leong1188 > 2019-11-07 08:29 | Report Abuse

Attn to Reader 4444:

Firstly, u must understand what is construction profit?

Since the commencement of the construction of Don Sahong Hydropower project, by accounting practice, it is required to recognise construction profit (paper profit) from the development progress during the construction period based on their agreed net margin of 28%. That is what had contributed to the group's strong earnings over the last 4 years. As the construction is nearly complete, the % of construction progress is getting smaller. I would expect the upcoming 2H results would see much smaller numbers compared to a year ago as the construction of the power project already at the tail-end.

Once the PPA kick starts in early-2020, the proceeds received from the electricity sales would be known as real cash-flow profit (the real money), that is the time where investors will enjoy annual 30sen dividend for the next 25 years.

Posted by limcs > 2019-11-07 09:10 | Report Abuse

@leong1188 , kuat !!
huat!!

Posted by utopia86 > 2019-11-07 09:39 | Report Abuse

The future is bright and quite certain with the estimated profit. There is no 100% sure in this investment world, not even coldeye. But certainly the risk is always smaller when you are buying in something you know. Huat!!

Posted by Samtuckfatt > 2019-11-07 13:09 | Report Abuse

leong1188, pjseow, how u all look those company just get their power plant project or going to start to build the plant like Tadmax, Toyoink, should start accumulate or waiting plant construction start or only buy 1-2 years before plant completion?

Posted by shpg22 > 2019-11-07 15:55 | Report Abuse

Be extremely cautious with this stock. I had advise the same for LONBISC when its at 0.60.

Posted by gkyt88 > 2019-11-07 16:06 | Report Abuse

shpg22 what's the prob

Posted by TurboHydro > 2019-11-07 16:52 | Report Abuse

shpg22. Yes. We will be cautious about stock investment.

You can stay away from MFCB if you feel insecure. else post us the facts tell us what problem.

Posted by The_Reds > 2019-11-07 18:05 | Report Abuse

hahaha...someone tried to compare LONBISC with MFCB...definitely joke of the year

Posted by linjie > 2019-11-07 19:52 | Report Abuse

gkyt88, that's always got some sour ppl bad mouth when they're not making money from the counter, u can check all his comment on every counter all bad mouthing

Posted by pjseow > 2019-11-07 22:46 | Report Abuse

Sam, I have no knowledge about the companies you mentioned. At present , I put my investments in Jaks and mfcb of which their power plants are near completion.

Posted by Samtuckfatt > 2019-11-08 00:34 | Report Abuse

Thks,seow here is the news https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/tadmax-active-after-getting-govt-nod-develop-pulau-indah-plant

Posted by leong1188 > 2019-11-08 07:48 | Report Abuse

Firstly, u need to look at capex for the construction project and whether the balance sheet can undertake such a mega project or not. Otherwise, the fund raising exercise and borrowing cost can kill their financials. 1MW coal-fired/hydro = USD1m-2m. Secondly, how transparent and prudent the management is. If u refer to 2017 annual report, they even managed to get a cost reduction for the project from USD417m to USD401m and is looking to announce a lower capex with the lower interest rate. I think a lot of us might not hear of such thing called "project cost reduction". What we normally hear is "cost over-run", eg. the Malaysian company, which has a power plant in India.... If there is a cost-overrun, the losses are all borne by the shareholders.

Well, any company can make a big shout by venturing into the power business, but how transparent they are with the construction progress and whether they are on track with the timeline is another key concern. Otherwise, it is going to be an white elephant. If u read through all the quarterly results in MFCB, they will update us the progress of the project (work scope, % of the progress and next action....)

Posted by The_Reds > 2019-11-08 10:25 | Report Abuse

Everyday new high...pening ah~~~

Posted by TurboHydro > 2019-11-08 10:32 | Report Abuse

@leong1188 I'm agreed with you. MFCB quarter results have very detailed information, it proves that the management is committed and very transparent on the aspect of their businesses. They really did a very good job.

I wish that the completion of this project will bring MFCB to another level and looking forward to MFCB to achieve another big milestone in the near future.

Posted by pjseow > 2019-11-08 10:54 | Report Abuse

MFCB is not new to management of power plants. It has managed two power plants before. One in China and the other one in Tawau malaysia. Besides ,its JV partner is also power plant expert. Experience count.

Posted by The_Reds > 2019-11-08 11:57 | Report Abuse

Mr ciaksai...is it really matter??? don't make me laugh la, yesterday I edy laughing non stop when another guy compared LONBISC with MFCB

Posted by shpg22 > 2019-11-10 11:45 | Report Abuse

Hehe...if our Public Invest is so smart, do you think they will recommend LONBISC despite so many red flag that a only novice can't notice.

Posted by leong1188 > 2019-11-10 18:08 | Report Abuse

I am sure most of us including the investment gurus had the experience of making the wrong calls in the stock mkt. Research analysts including the high profile also cannot spare from it as they do make mistakes as well. If all the calls are judged 100% accurately, that is called "God of stock market". What is the point of keep criticising weakness in one counter but no credit to the good call? It also shows "the sour grape" personality in a person. Being an investor, there is an investor behaviour to adopt, otherwise, u will lose money "forever". At the end, a succesful investor measures ur gains outweighs the losses.

The MFCB recommended by Public Invest started since around 2014 at around RM2.10, are u trying to say their call is wrong throughout the years after rising more than 120%? If u randomly pick any of the MFCB reports, it nvr fails to give a "BUY" call and it comes with an increasing TP.

If MFCB touches RM5 level in less than 2 mths, hopefully, these bunch of "sour grape" investors will disappear from the chat here.

Posted by lloydlim > 2019-11-11 14:17 | Report Abuse

Not even 5, up to 6 also no problem!

Posted by shpg22 > 2019-11-11 20:34 | Report Abuse

I ll recommend BABA

Posted by limcs > 2019-11-12 11:35 | Report Abuse

@shpg22 , it is ALIBABA ?

Posted by RainT > 2019-11-13 00:02 | Report Abuse

JAKS will be future mfcb

Posted by limcs > 2019-11-13 10:24 | Report Abuse

美佳第一辽国东萨宏（Don Sahong）水电站於11月12日提前完工，为该公司经过15年精心打造的发电站填上美丽璀璨色彩。

11月12日，机电安装分局承建的老挝东萨宏水电站3号机组完成72小时试运行，至此东萨宏水电站四台机组全部入商业运行，比合同工期提前48天。

为确保电流能高素质的传送，辽国及柬埔寨火速搭建输电线，工程接近尾声，全面配合电站的启用。

https://www.facebook.com/groups/726842394052430/permalink/3212576348812343/

Posted by 般若 金刚 > 2019-11-13 12:37 | Report Abuse

http://10j.powerchina.cn/index.php?m=content&c=index&a=show&catid=27&id=7033

Posted by lloydlim > 2019-11-13 13:44 | Report Abuse

Great! More to go!

Posted by The_Reds > 2019-11-13 20:03 | Report Abuse

top up a bit today...drop more then can top up more

Posted by TurboHydro > 2019-11-14 10:09 | Report Abuse

Share price inching closer to its full value. Stripping out all other businesses, the Don Sahong Hydropower project is valued at an estimated TP of RM4.95/share, accounting for 87% of our SOP-based target price (refer to Figure 2). We believe upon receiving the first payment (to take about 3 months from now) from the electricity sales, the share price should re-rate closer to our SOP-based target price as it clears lingering uncertainties overpayment issues.

Time to reap gains for warrant holders. The total warrants outstanding are about 40.2m, with an exercise price of RM2.22. As the plant approaches its commercial operation date scheduled on 1st Jan 2020, in-the-money warrant holders should contemplate converting their existing holdings before expiry on 08 April 2020. Based on our estimates, we see a potential DPS of at least 30sen based on 40% payout from the Group’s free cash flow, just reward for all long-term shareholders of the company.

Monetising Serudong Power S/B’s assets. To recap, the 51%-owned subsidiary, Serudong Power S/B, which ran a 36MW diesel-fuelled power plant in Tawau, had ceased operations following the expiry of the concession on 2 Dec 2017. MFCB’s management has agreed to sell the power plant and structures together with all the facilities, equipment, plant and machinery at a total consideration of RM3m. A total provision of RM16.6m was incurred in 2018 to cover all costs associated with the dismantling of the power plant. Upon completion of the asset sale, the entire provision will no longer be necessary and will be reversed into Serudong’s profit and loss position. This will collectively contribute an estimated gain of RM9.6m or EPS of 2.43sen to MFCB’s results based on its 51% shareholdings (RM3m pre-tax gain on disposal + RM16.65m reversal of provision.

Posted by KL Tneoh > 2019-11-14 10:27 | Report Abuse

Cambodia to import 200MW from Don Sahong start from next year.

The spokesperson also stated the transmission line is almost complete and should be ready by early next month.

Cambodia is facing power shortages.

https://m.phnompenhpost.com/business/kingdom-import-200mw-lao-hydropower-plant

Posted by Samtuckfatt > 2019-11-14 14:11 | Report Abuse

Any one miss MFCB, might take a look at Jaks, both will be good power plant Darling

Posted by bzeew > 2019-11-16 10:52 | Report Abuse

After taking nearly 4 years, Mega First’s Don Sahong Hydropower project in Laos has finally been completed. According to an official statement from the Chinese contractor, Sinohydro dated two days ago, all turbines have now entered commercial operation after the successful trial of the fourth turbine. The USD401m project was completed 48 days ahead of schedule. We laud the strong efforts from all parties given the earlier-than-expected completion period as well as prudent management in bringing down the project cost. Maintain Outperform call with an unchanged TP of RM5.71.
Source : PUBLIC BANK

Posted by stock_investor > 2019-11-18 18:53 | Report Abuse

One bomb come down.

Posted by Beast > 2019-11-18 18:55 | Report Abuse

Lol expected result la ,construction revenue stop already. The energy sales havant start also. Please read firet before comment anything

Posted by The_Reds > 2019-11-18 19:11 | Report Abuse

drop in profit is expected...prepare the cash to sapu tomorrow if there is any idiotic selldown

Posted by The_Reds > 2019-11-18 19:16 | Report Abuse

basically MFCB already completed the whole Don Sahong projects, whatever left is the construction of transmission line which is under Laos/Cambodia authorities

Posted by DK66 > 2019-11-18 19:35 | Report Abuse

Prospects
Power Division
1. Hydropower - Don Sahong Hydropower Project (“Don Sahong Project”)
Civil works of the Don Sahong power plant and Don Sahong’s portion of the
transmission line from the Don Sahong switchyard to Ban Hut sub-station are
completed at the date of this report. On even date, all four generating turbines
have been successfully tested and are ready for commissioning.
Construction of the 500KV by-pass transmission line by Électricité du Laos (“EDL”)
to the Laos/Cambodia border and the 500KV connecting transmission line by
Electricite Du Cambodge (“EDC”) from Laos/Cambodia border to Stung Treng in
Cambodia is scheduled for completion before the year end.
Management remains confident of achieving commercial operation date (COD) by
the end January 2020.
The Group is expected to recognise most, if not all, of the remaining 5% of the
construction revenue and profit in the final quarter of 2019. Additionally, the Group
is expected to recognise some energy sales from commissioned turbines in the
fourth quarter. Before the completion of the 500KV line which is capable of
transmitting up to 85 MW of power.
On 12 September 2019, EDL of Laos signed a new PPA with EDC of Cambodia
to sell up to 500 MW hydro power to Cambodia. This is on top of the 195 MW PPA
signed between the same parties earlier on 6 March 2019. Given the additional
hydro power demand from Cambodia, the government of Laos has given in
principal approval for the 5th turbine expansion by Don Sahong subject to, amongst
others, approval of feasibility study report and environmental report, and the
conclusion of negotiation of the commercial terms with EDL.

Posted by newbie911 > 2019-11-18 20:52 | Report Abuse

Result like shit !!!

Posted by sg999 > 2019-11-18 21:12 | Report Abuse

habis!

Posted by sg999 > 2019-11-18 21:12 | Report Abuse

limit down on tomorrow!

Posted by Samtuckfatt > 2019-11-18 21:14 | Report Abuse

Standby bullet, collect mode.

Posted by Chrishau > 2019-11-18 21:49 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow sure down.
Will enter if the price below RM4

Posted by The_Reds > 2019-11-18 22:45 | Report Abuse

It won't drop below 4, if retailers throw then funds will happily buying