Posted by lloydlim > 2019-10-09 15:38 | Report Abuse

Dumb dumb hold until next year & laugh to de bank

Posted by Thelastone > 2019-10-11 09:51 | Report Abuse

Read the Maybank article again,it said rm5.0 is undemanding valuation at FY20E PER 7.8x
Think carefully in 2020 will the market give Mfcb PER 7.8x or the more reasonable PER 12-15x
At PER12x it will be rm7.69 and 15x will be rm9.61

Posted by KL Tneoh > 2019-10-11 10:18 | Report Abuse

I guess that is the normal practice of Investment Bank when come to PE, as for MFCB the hydro power plant is not yet 100% complete. Besides the estimated earning is just a projection, so they normally will give low PE for that, however once the hydro power plant is up & running , and the earning is actually match the projection, I am sure that they will raise the PE.

For reference, Malakof current PE is stand around 14.

Posted by Stevecheahsw > 2019-10-11 15:09 | Report Abuse

Agreed

Posted by Thelastone > 2019-10-11 15:54 | Report Abuse

Ya,that’s right.Just more months to wait to see our investment double in value!
Hehe.

Posted by limcs > 2019-10-12 19:10 | Report Abuse

According to fb article , there was open ceremony for first running turbine on 11/10/2019 .
Huat!!

Posted by cskok72 > 2019-10-12 19:12 | Report Abuse

https://www.facebook.com/groups/459777487714608/permalink/967332720292413/

Posted by limcs > 2019-10-12 20:31 | Report Abuse

经历超过10年的耕耘，美佳第一（MFCB,3069）位于辽国的东萨宏发电站终于迎来了收获，开始创造盈利。

随着第一台机组成功并网发电，意味着美佳第一於2015年10月动工建造的发电站，正式步入卖电给辽国电力公司（EDL）

实现盈利的阶段。该公司也于本月11日（星期五）在发电厂房内举行简单隆重的发电仪式，出席者包括辽国能源部长卡马尼，

美佳第一董事主席吴南侨，执行董事邱鼎杰等人。

该260MW的发电厂拥有四台机组，其余3台目前正在紧张调试中，并会在数个月后，即2020年1月进入商业营运。

首台机组65MW的电力是通过连接230KV的班哈（Ban Hut）变电站，将电力出售给EDL，而第2，3，4台机组的电力则是连接辽国

和柬埔寨边境的500KV电网，转售给急需电力的柬埔寨。 该电站与柬埔寨仅相隔2公里，建成后可供电自用，亦可输电给邻国，无形

中带来巨大的经济效应。

连接东萨宏发电站的500KV输电线正如火如荼建设中，预计在12月完工。该公司乐观看好整项工程能在明年一月全面发电。

另一方面，该公司在8月的第二季度财报中宣布，在获得辽国政府的批准后，将增建第5台发电机，前景可期。

美佳第一在2015年与辽国电力公司签署了包销购电协议，并获得25年特许经营权，水电站每年可产电力2000GWH，发电生产率达90%，

在水力发电领域中可谓名列前茅。

东萨宏水电站位于辽国南部，建设在湄公河17条主要河道之一上，由于水电站不需要建造水坝来蓄水，因此符合环保条件，同时大

大提升了该区域人民的生活素质。

美佳第一董事部多次在股东大会上透露，水电站将是该公司最主要的盈利来源，每年大约可带来1亿美金的现金流，在2020年财政年起，将把

集团的盈利带至另一高峰，届时会派发丰厚股息。

Posted by Chong Hon > 2019-10-12 21:50 | Report Abuse

http://10j.powerchina.cn/index.php?m=content&c=index&a=show&catid=25&id=6917

Posted by lloydlim > 2019-10-14 13:04 | Report Abuse

Don Sahong hydropower plant close to completion, earnings (and dividends) to jump multi-fold.

Posted by Davidl > 2019-10-15 12:44 | Report Abuse

Time to accumulate!

Posted by bottomtrawler > 2019-10-15 14:43 | Report Abuse

on steroid

Posted by Davidl > 2019-10-15 15:08 | Report Abuse

Seems like uptrend towards 5.00 in de making!

Posted by utopia86 > 2019-10-15 15:15 | Report Abuse

10 bagger is coming!! Buckle up!!

Posted by VivoPrince > 2019-10-15 15:18 | Report Abuse

My late mother will be very happy. Her favourite stock has finally come to life!!!

Posted by lloydlim > 2019-10-15 15:30 | Report Abuse

We probably wouldn't c 4.40 anymore by next year due to auto pilot mode to the north alr switched on.

Posted by thesteward > 2019-10-15 21:25 | Report Abuse

Holding tight

Posted by pantor > 2019-10-15 22:24 | Report Abuse

Adrenaline boost!

Posted by Davidl > 2019-10-16 11:10 | Report Abuse

Breaking another new high now!

Posted by Dangel > 2019-10-16 18:20 | Report Abuse

Yup, holding tight!

Posted by gkyt88 > 2019-10-16 18:33 | Report Abuse

tp?

Posted by VivoPrince > 2019-10-17 09:35 | Report Abuse

Consolidation phase.

Posted by limcs > 2019-10-18 09:47 | Report Abuse

hold tight ...the uptrend wave is coming !!!

huat!!

Posted by KL Tneoh > 2019-10-18 10:40 | Report Abuse

I expect Public Investment Bank to come out their Analysts Report soon, expect with an upgrade TP of $0.30-$0.50 !

Posted by utopia86 > 2019-10-18 11:21 | Report Abuse

Public Investment Bank selected MFCB as their stock pick 2019, can see they put high confidence on MFCB... The market shall follow suit...

Posted by Davidl > 2019-10-18 11:37 | Report Abuse

The price being consolidated for more than 2 years, do u think de recent uptrend end at 4.50? I dun think so.

Posted by limcs > 2019-10-18 12:57 | Report Abuse

@Davidl, what is your opinion ? rm 7 ? :P

huat!!

Posted by lcwin > 2019-10-18 13:55 | Report Abuse

Hi KL teoh I look at your Hydro power plant estimation earlier. There is one assumption you made that I think should be amended. The capacity factor of 80% is very high. I would put it around 40 to 55% max. Coal power plants are usually used as base load supply. They cannot ramp up and down in short notice compared to hydo and even then I think 75% for coal power is already an optimistic figure.

Posted by KL Tneoh > 2019-10-18 14:27 | Report Abuse

@ lcwin, the assumption is based on feedback from the management.

First class average hydro power plant output efficiency is around 90%, and personally I think 80% is about right. Anyway I might be wrong.

Posted by lcwin > 2019-10-18 14:37 | Report Abuse

hi KL Tneoh Capacity factor is differnt from output efficiency. Real world cumulative data for hydro averages 40% with Brazil highest and China about 40%. Anyway hydo power have one of the lowest operating cost among the alternatives.

Posted by KL Tneoh > 2019-10-18 14:43 | Report Abuse

That I m not too sure but the assumption of Average 5 millions kilowatts of output per day is based on management feedback.

Posted by Joe Ng > 2019-10-18 14:50 | Report Abuse

Rm 8 soon

Posted by lcwin > 2019-10-18 14:51 | Report Abuse

Ok then just to let you know what to expect down the road when earning results starts coming out

Posted by VivoPrince > 2019-10-18 14:58 | Report Abuse

@Icwin & @KL Tneoh: Thanks for the insightful exchanges that are done in an intellectual manner. Good luck to all MFCB faithfuls.

Posted by KL Tneoh > 2019-10-18 15:06 | Report Abuse

Noted with thanks

Posted by 般若 金刚 > 2019-10-19 22:29 | Report Abuse

A lot china hydro power can archive above 80%. Range around 80 to 91%. For MFCB, i read some hydro power construction company research report say dry session is around 80% and wet session can archive around 90%. KL Tnoeh say 80 % is very reasonable and confirm many time by management. This is reason y MFCB planed use 260mw turbine not 240mw or 220 mw turbine. Actually a lot information can search in google.

Posted by lcwin > 2019-10-19 23:38 | Report Abuse

From your comment i am sure you have read the feasibility study done for the project and take the capacity factor from there.
OK Please go and check the published Hydroelectric capacity factors in the Vietnam and Laos government published statistic . You can google it.They have a lots of hydro power plants around the Mekong basin and dating back for more than 20 years. The average power capacity factors achieved for power plants above 200mw and larger is around 30 to 50%.
A lot of feasibility studies reports are done in such a way so that the banker financing portion can be maximized. Bankers and investors need to be convinced. Its routine to overstate cashflow and returns assumption figure by 30 to 50% on a most cases. If you look at many malaysia privatized toll roads the figure can border on the ridiculous. But then this is another story. Please never ever take my words as gospel go and check n recheck the facts. It just so happen I am researching another company that is in the same industry .
good night

Posted by 般若 金刚 > 2019-10-20 10:23 | Report Abuse

Thanks for sharing information.
For more reference please check link below.
http://www.mrcmekong.org/assets/Other-Documents/Don-Sahong/DSHPP-Engineering-Status-Report-2011.pdf

Disclaimer: Planning and actual maybe difference. Please take on your own risk.The final result let time to proof.

Posted by KL Tneoh > 2019-10-20 10:53 | Report Abuse

@ 般若金刚 I was reading the same report years ago, and I personally asked the management about the estimated output. In fact one of the person in charge gave me the detail explanation, why the power generation output on DSH can achieve such a high rate.

Anyway, let keep the fingers cross, is the outcome will be matching what they had estimated.

Posted by lcwin > 2019-10-20 11:54 | Report Abuse

Yes that report is paid by MFCB and not the independent Gov reports on Hydroelectric power in the Mekong region. Its better to see the Independent report that shows the various hydroelectric dams operating there and it details a lot of Dams of various capacities. Generally larger dams have better capacity factors. However the good thing about this MFCB dam is the low cost per MW compare with its peers.

Posted by shareinvestor88 > 2019-10-20 15:17 | Report Abuse

What report ? The link ?

Posted by lcwin > 2019-10-20 19:52 | Report Abuse

I guess u hv to Google it yourself as I was not interested in hydro but doing some comparison n benchmarking
electric power plants under differentt real world scenarios . Anyway I like to thank people like you to give feedback n opinions different than by own

Posted by limcs > 2019-10-21 11:31 | Report Abuse

随着第一台机组成功并网发电，MFCB（3069）美佳第一正式步入卖电给辽国电力公司（EDL）实现盈利的阶段。

根据可靠消息透露，接下来的计划是每10天试运行一台机组，即2号，3号及4号机组，大概在11月就能调试完毕。

消息说，在连接东萨宏水电站与Ban Hut（班哈）的输变电线之间，辽国电力公司在第23号电塔的位置驳接一条全长10KM（25支电塔）的临时输电线，目前正火速赶工，计划11月底完工。

这替代方案有效的解决了数月前困扰着该公司有电力但没有输电线的窘境。

至于柬埔寨方面，500KV的输电线正如火如荼建设中，并已完成80%，预计在12月完工。

综合以上种种利好因素，该公司也在季报中表示乐观看好整项工程能在明年一月全面发电。

美佳第一在2015年与辽国电力公司签署了包销购电协议，并获得25年特许经营权，水电站每年可产电2000GWH，发电生产率达90%，在水力发电领域中可谓名列前茅。

图片说明：

图片1 ： 柬埔寨的500KV输变电线赶工建设中。

图片2 ： 铺设在柬辽边境约60公里的500KV线路，对两国未来的电力输送至关重要。

图片3 ： 重型机械神手在第23号塔旁挖掘，开始临时输变电线的建设。

图片4 ：班哈变电站连接东萨宏与辽国电力公司，将电分配到境内各地方。

图片5 ： 至关重要的临时输电线工程从23号电塔开始建设。

Posted by limcs > 2019-10-21 11:32 | Report Abuse

https://www.facebook.com/groups/726842394052430/permalink/3140832129320099?sfns=mo

Posted by gyl6886 > 2019-10-21 11:50 | Report Abuse

I do not know how much the share will go up. But for me MFCB now still have potential to growth. Basic study, Laos have nothing to lose... Since they kick start Test run successful, share price proof the value of this counter.

Posted by The_Reds > 2019-10-23 16:34 | Report Abuse

thank you to create an opening for me to buy in today, this is my 1st entry in MFCB

Posted by Thelastone > 2019-10-23 16:51 | Report Abuse

Any correction in price is good opportunity to enter!
Year 2020 will be company first harvest year after 5 years wait

Posted by The_Reds > 2019-10-23 17:07 | Report Abuse

yup...I believe it will be a high growth stock as well as good defensive stock in 2020

Posted by TurboHydro > 2019-10-23 21:58 | Report Abuse

@icwin - there are many senior and experienced experts here. The information doesn't come from google alone... 万事具备... the unpolished gem is time to shine soon :)

Posted by lloydlim > 2019-10-24 13:35 | Report Abuse

At least 6.50