Hi Turbohydro, yes I am an novice here so let me ask you to find out yourself if MFCB power plant is a base load or a load following power plant? If there is a garanteed offtake from the client then very good then the next question is how many % of capacity? For your info jaks coal plant is 60% min which means if demand is less than 60 jaks will get paid for 60%. I make my profit assumption based only on 65% of capacity factor although a lot of people will take 80% to shiok sendiri n to sell the idea as gold harvesting.
"For the first 3 years after the commercial operation date, annual guaranteed payment is 90% of the Base Energy (2028 x 90% = 1825GWh). This amounts to US$112.2 million per year (minimum guaranteed amount)"
Is this term still valid in the Power Purchase Agreement signed with EDL???
guaranteed payment is for 3 year after which it will depend on demand. I guess MFCB will likely try to pay off the loans within 3 years as this will remove the uncertainity after this period. Its a very good deal for MFCB as its capital cost can be recoup within 3 to 5 years. The assumption for earning after 3 year will probably be very much reduced as it will be on demand basis.
Nope...it's not depending on demand, it's actually based on "take or pay" basis...so the key point is how can they optimise the hydropower supply in order to make sure they get the maximal profit from it
I think u don't have to worry about the demand...Cambodia and Laos are craving for more electricity for their high paced development, Cambodia is even more desperate for it
I think can expect rm10 by end 2020 or latest by mid 2021. Everything depends on US-China trade agreement successfully signed and world economy recovery on track
public invest estimated a profit of 200 to 260m annually from Don.Sahong power plant. With the cuurent 435 million shares and some unconverted warrant, total number of mfcb shares is estimated to be about 500 million shares comes end April 2020.when the warrants mature. Assuming a 250 million profit during the matured period of fully.running the power plant,earning per share will be 50sen. A PE of 14 will give the tgt price of 7.00 .This estimate is based on 4 turbines. When the fifth turbine is operational,you can add another 25 %. PE of 14 is based on current PE of M alakoff which has numerous power plants.
Malakoff profit margin only 4.1% over last 2 years and current Roe 5.13, Mfcb profit margin average 17.2% over last 2 yesrs and possibility of going above 20% from Don Sahong,Roe 9 Definitely Mfcb can get better PE than 14x may be around 17-18% esp when they start to distribute dividends
Don sahong is a.cash cow business with very good profit margin. Assuming a dividend payout of 30 sen per share and 4 % dividend yield, its share price will be 7.50. Malakoff dividend yield is 7.16 % which is very high . Malaff is paying all its profit as dividend while I am assuming mfcb pay only 50% of its profit of 60s. Mfcb need to use the profit to pay off its debt first.
Received a lot of valuable information from PIB. They follow up very closely with the management. The management is doing a good job and very transparent.
I'm excited to see MFCB grow progressively. The target of $5.7 is very reasonable for the time being.
MEGA FIRST CORPORATION - Waiting To Reap Gains Author: PublicInvest Publish date: Mon, 4 Nov 2019, 9:18 AM
It is pleasing to note that Mega First’s (MFCB) Don Sahong Hydropower project in Laos is almost complete pending the testing for all four turbines. Testing of the final turbine should some time next week and will be ready for operations ahead of commencement of its PPA on 1st Jan 2020 under a “take or pay” scheme. Meanwhile, MFCB’s 3QFY19 results are expected to be released on 18 Nov with expectation of smaller construction earnings recognition given the hydropower plant being at the tail-end stages. We raise our SOP-based TP to RM5.71 after removing the 10% discount attached in our valuation model with the dissipation of construction risks, as well as the lower beta attached given the plant’s completion ahead of the timeline.
In the midst of testing turbines. The first of four electricity turbines at the Don Sahong Hydropower plant on the Mekong river in Southern Laos’ Champasak province was tested on 11 Oct following the 4 years of construction. The test was witnessed by Laos Minister of Energy and Mines Khammany Inthirath. MFCB will test each energy generator every 10 days and, with all the generators expected to be fully tested and synchronized by end-Nov. As the new 500kv transmission line is not ready as yet to cope with the full energy generation, the group plans to run 2 full turbines and shut down the other 2 turbines during these 2 months. Based on our rough estimates, it will be able to churn about USD6m (RM25m) of electricity sales in 4QFY19 which will be recognized as per the normalized margins guided by auditors. Meanwhile, capex for the 5th turbine, which has a size of 65MW, will be around USD60m (RM246m), and is expected to be ready by 2023. Transmission lines. Our checks in Cambodia have revealed that the 60km 500kv transmission line from Laos-Cambodia border to Stung Treng is almost 90% complete. The new 22km 500kv transmission line from the Ban Hat substation to Laos-Cambodia border is already done, and is awaiting streamlining of both the towers. Following the recent power purchase agreement signed between Laos and Cambodia involving 2,900MW, we believe all electricity sales from Don Sahong will be sold to Cambodia due to its close proximity to the country. It also allays fears of not being able to monetize its electricity production, which could have led to payment issues for MFCB. Eyeing solar projects. MFCB and Pekat Teknologi S/B have recently established a 55: 45 joint venture called MFP Solar S/B to undertake solar projects up to 10MW in Malaysia, which is believed to give far better investment returns of 10%-12%. MFP Solar S/B will be the engineering, procurement and construction and commissioning (EPCC) contractor to undertake the installation of solar power projects on the rooftop of industrial and commercial buildings under various models, namely, Build-Operate Transfer (BOT), outright sale or leasing. MFCB will ride on Pekat Teknologi’s vast experience in the solar industry. For a start, the JV intends to tap on multi-national companies for opportunities. Source: PublicInvest Research - 4 Nov 2019
projected eps for 2019,2020 and 2021 are 20.7 s, 48.9s and 50.2s respectively. Dividend yield projected are 31 s for both 2020and 2021. This give dividend yield of 6.8 % at today closing price of 4.56. Report from Nanyang quoting public invest analyst.
Warrant conversion and ESOS is all expected, nothing much to worry because the future earning is high. Disposed share by someone also meaning acquisition share by another!! It depends on how you look at it. Half full or half empty?? I am seeing the light at the end of the tunnel !!
The FMR LLC has been holding since 10 yrs ago with the entry cost easily at only RM1-1.60. Based on the current prices, profit taking from them is normal given the huge gains they have made in this stock.
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Posted by lcwin > 2019-10-25 09:44 | Report Abuse
Hi Turbohydro, yes I am an novice here so let me ask you to find out yourself if MFCB power plant is a base load or a load following power plant?
If there is a garanteed offtake from the client then very good then the next question is how many % of capacity?
For your info jaks coal plant is 60% min which means if demand is less than 60 jaks will get paid for 60%. I make my profit assumption based only on 65% of capacity factor although a lot of people will take 80% to shiok sendiri n to sell the idea as gold harvesting.