Posted by lcwin > 2019-10-25 09:44 | Report Abuse

Hi Turbohydro, yes I am an novice here so let me ask you to find out yourself if MFCB power plant is a base load or a load following power plant?
If there is a garanteed offtake from the client then very good then the next question is how many % of capacity?
For your info jaks coal plant is 60% min which means if demand is less than 60 jaks will get paid for 60%. I make my profit assumption based only on 65% of capacity factor although a lot of people will take 80% to shiok sendiri n to sell the idea as gold harvesting.

Posted by The_Reds > 2019-10-25 10:48 | Report Abuse

"For the first 3 years after the commercial operation date, annual guaranteed payment is 90% of the Base Energy (2028 x 90% = 1825GWh). This amounts to US$112.2 million per year (minimum guaranteed amount)"

Is this term still valid in the Power Purchase Agreement signed with EDL???

Posted by lcwin > 2019-10-25 11:58 | Report Abuse

ok then its very good returns way higher than any power plant that i look at. Sorry than I never seen IRR this high before.

Posted by lcwin > 2019-10-25 13:37 | Report Abuse

guaranteed payment is for 3 year after which it will depend on demand. I guess MFCB will likely try to pay off the loans within 3 years as this will remove the uncertainity after this period. Its a very good deal for MFCB as its capital cost can be recoup within 3 to 5 years. The assumption for earning after 3 year will probably be very much reduced as it will be on demand basis.

Posted by The_Reds > 2019-10-25 16:46 | Report Abuse

Nope...it's not depending on demand, it's actually based on "take or pay" basis...so the key point is how can they optimise the hydropower supply in order to make sure they get the maximal profit from it

Posted by lcwin > 2019-10-25 20:39 | Report Abuse

maybe i read wrongly go n c the details again..3 yrs fixed, subsequent years earning on market demand, 5 yrs tax free subsequent 24% on profit etc

Posted by The_Reds > 2019-10-25 21:43 | Report Abuse

I think u don't have to worry about the demand...Cambodia and Laos are craving for more electricity for their high paced development, Cambodia is even more desperate for it

Posted by Joe Ng > 2019-10-26 19:41 | Report Abuse

Time to buy more

Posted by Joe Ng > 2019-10-28 10:45 | Report Abuse

Can expect mfcb to be above 10.00 in 3 years

Posted by limcs > 2019-10-28 13:18 | Report Abuse

Rm 10 !!! After 5th turbine ?

Posted by Thelastone > 2019-10-28 14:11 | Report Abuse

I think can expect rm10 by end 2020 or latest by mid 2021.
Everything depends on US-China trade agreement successfully signed and world economy recovery on track

Posted by pjseow > 2019-10-28 17:29 | Report Abuse

public invest estimated a profit of 200 to 260m annually from Don.Sahong power plant. With the cuurent 435 million shares and some unconverted warrant, total number of mfcb shares is estimated to be about 500 million shares comes end April 2020.when the warrants mature. Assuming a 250 million profit during the matured period of fully.running the power plant,earning per share will be 50sen. A PE of 14 will give the tgt price of 7.00 .This estimate is based on 4 turbines. When the fifth turbine is operational,you can add another 25 %. PE of 14 is based on current PE of M alakoff which has numerous power plants.

Posted by pjseow > 2019-10-29 09:40 | Report Abuse

just add another 25 % . The profit.is estimated to be 300 million assuming there is such demand.

Posted by limcs > 2019-10-29 13:42 | Report Abuse

Good say pjseow ! Hopefully rm 10

Posted by Dangel > 2019-10-29 16:53 | Report Abuse

I agreed with pjseow, thanks for your sharing.

Posted by limcs > 2019-10-29 20:46 | Report Abuse

Wow rm 8 Huat Huat !

Posted by Thelastone > 2019-10-29 22:12 | Report Abuse

Malakoff profit margin only 4.1% over last 2 years and current Roe 5.13,
Mfcb profit margin average 17.2% over last 2 yesrs and possibility of going above 20% from Don Sahong,Roe 9
Definitely Mfcb can get better PE than 14x may be around 17-18% esp when they start to distribute dividends

Posted by Thelastone > 2019-10-29 22:14 | Report Abuse

PE17.5x of eps 60 sen the price will be rm10.5

Posted by Thelastone > 2019-10-29 22:14 | Report Abuse

Haha...dreaming !

Posted by pjseow > 2019-10-30 08:08 | Report Abuse

Don sahong is a.cash cow business with very good profit margin. Assuming a dividend payout of 30 sen per share and 4 % dividend yield, its share price will be 7.50. Malakoff dividend yield is 7.16 % which is very high . Malaff is paying all its profit as dividend while I am assuming mfcb pay only 50% of its profit of 60s. Mfcb need to use the profit to pay off its debt first.

Posted by Samtuckfatt > 2019-10-30 17:11 | Report Abuse

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/595830. Malakoff sold off Aus wind farm to peel down the debt.

Posted by KL Tneoh > 2019-11-04 09:36 | Report Abuse

Public Investment Bank raise TP to $5.71

Posted by limcs > 2019-11-04 09:45 | Report Abuse

buy call from pbbank , RM5.71 !!!
huat !!!

Posted by utopia86 > 2019-11-04 09:47 | Report Abuse

Wow, later Maybank will follow suit, the gen is slowly reveled.

Posted by Thelastone > 2019-11-04 14:46 | Report Abuse

Good news indeed!All 4 turbines Vroom Vroom,going to start soon!

Posted by TurboHydro > 2019-11-04 15:45 | Report Abuse

Received a lot of valuable information from PIB. They follow up very closely with the management. The management is doing a good job and very transparent.

I'm excited to see MFCB grow progressively. The target of $5.7 is very reasonable for the time being.

Posted by shpg22 > 2019-11-04 19:10 | Report Abuse

Most of the excitement already been price in ahead (+175% gain since 2016). Beware of unexpected incident. This is how stock works.

Posted by Samtuckfatt > 2019-11-04 22:20 | Report Abuse

MEGA FIRST CORPORATION - Waiting To Reap Gains
Author: PublicInvest Publish date: Mon, 4 Nov 2019, 9:18 AM

It is pleasing to note that Mega First’s (MFCB) Don Sahong Hydropower project in Laos is almost complete pending the testing for all four turbines. Testing of the final turbine should some time next week and will be ready for operations ahead of commencement of its PPA on 1st Jan 2020 under a “take or pay” scheme. Meanwhile, MFCB’s 3QFY19 results are expected to be released on 18 Nov with expectation of smaller construction earnings recognition given the hydropower plant being at the tail-end stages. We raise our SOP-based TP to RM5.71 after removing the 10% discount attached in our valuation model with the dissipation of construction risks, as well as the lower beta attached given the plant’s completion ahead of the timeline.

In the midst of testing turbines. The first of four electricity turbines at the Don Sahong Hydropower plant on the Mekong river in Southern Laos’ Champasak province was tested on 11 Oct following the 4 years of construction. The test was witnessed by Laos Minister of Energy and Mines Khammany Inthirath. MFCB will test each energy generator every 10 days and, with all the generators expected to be fully tested and synchronized by end-Nov. As the new 500kv transmission line is not ready as yet to cope with the full energy generation, the group plans to run 2 full turbines and shut down the other 2 turbines during these 2 months. Based on our rough estimates, it will be able to churn about USD6m (RM25m) of electricity sales in 4QFY19 which will be recognized as per the normalized margins guided by auditors. Meanwhile, capex for the 5th turbine, which has a size of 65MW, will be around USD60m (RM246m), and is expected to be ready by 2023.
Transmission lines. Our checks in Cambodia have revealed that the 60km 500kv transmission line from Laos-Cambodia border to Stung Treng is almost 90% complete. The new 22km 500kv transmission line from the Ban Hat substation to Laos-Cambodia border is already done, and is awaiting streamlining of both the towers. Following the recent power purchase agreement signed between Laos and Cambodia involving 2,900MW, we believe all electricity sales from Don Sahong will be sold to Cambodia due to its close proximity to the country. It also allays fears of not being able to monetize its electricity production, which could have led to payment issues for MFCB.
Eyeing solar projects. MFCB and Pekat Teknologi S/B have recently established a 55: 45 joint venture called MFP Solar S/B to undertake solar projects up to 10MW in Malaysia, which is believed to give far better investment returns of 10%-12%. MFP Solar S/B will be the engineering, procurement and construction and commissioning (EPCC) contractor to undertake the installation of solar power projects on the rooftop of industrial and commercial buildings under various models, namely, Build-Operate Transfer (BOT), outright sale or leasing. MFCB will ride on Pekat Teknologi’s vast experience in the solar industry. For a start, the JV intends to tap on multi-national companies for opportunities.
Source: PublicInvest Research - 4 Nov 2019

Posted by pang72 > 2019-11-04 22:23 | Report Abuse

A big rally expected to Mfcb, toyoink and Jaks..
IPP theme again!

Posted by Teh1986 > 2019-11-05 09:30 | Report Abuse

Buy... 5.00 coming

Posted by limcs > 2019-11-05 10:01 | Report Abuse

@Teh1986 , 4.5 at first
huat!

Posted by Teh1986 > 2019-11-05 10:05 | Report Abuse

I Q alrealy sell at 4.50...hihihi

Posted by linjie > 2019-11-05 10:28 | Report Abuse

expected RM9 by 2023 when 5th turbine complete

Posted by linjie > 2019-11-05 10:28 | Report Abuse

3 year to go to gain 100% from current price, every year 30%+ return, buy !!!

Posted by Teh1986 > 2019-11-05 11:16 | Report Abuse

4.50 alrealy

Posted by limcs > 2019-11-05 14:01 | Report Abuse

@Teh1986 , congratulation ! But i wont sell at the moment !

Posted by utopia86 > 2019-11-05 14:44 | Report Abuse

You might not even can buy it back at 4.50 after you sell, hold tight and enjoy the rally!

Posted by Dangel > 2019-11-05 16:54 | Report Abuse

Today create another new high!

Posted by bzeew > 2019-11-05 17:14 | Report Abuse

Strong buy.

Posted by limcs > 2019-11-05 17:18 | Report Abuse

@shareinvestor88 , i dont know the tp ..maybe we should consult cold eyes !

huat!!!

Posted by pjseow > 2019-11-05 17:31 | Report Abuse

Public invest just upgrade the target price to rm 5.71 yesterday. Maybank last tgt price on 8 oct was 5.00

Posted by Davidl > 2019-11-05 20:55 | Report Abuse

5.00 surely not a problem! De question is when?

Posted by linjie > 2019-11-05 21:00 | Report Abuse

when start showing np from don sahong which should be another 2 qtr

Posted by pjseow > 2019-11-05 22:41 | Report Abuse

projected eps for 2019,2020 and 2021 are 20.7 s, 48.9s and 50.2s respectively. Dividend yield projected are 31 s for both 2020and 2021. This give dividend yield of 6.8 % at today closing price of 4.56. Report from Nanyang quoting public invest analyst.

Posted by shpg22 > 2019-11-05 22:43 | Report Abuse

Hope is not another LONBISC from Public invest

Posted by newbie5354_ > 2019-11-06 10:49 | Report Abuse

05-Nov-2019 Additional Listing ESOS - 13,000 shares at 2.000.
31-Oct-2019 Additional Listing Exercise of Warrants - 1,123,011 shares at 2.220.
31-Oct-2019 Insider FMR LLC (a substantial shareholder) disposed 200,000 shares on 29-Oct-2019.

Posted by newbie5354_ > 2019-11-06 10:49 | Report Abuse

ESOS RM 2, exercise W, FMR LLC disposed why is good news?

Posted by utopia86 > 2019-11-06 12:58 | Report Abuse

Warrant conversion and ESOS is all expected, nothing much to worry because the future earning is high. Disposed share by someone also meaning acquisition share by another!! It depends on how you look at it. Half full or half empty?? I am seeing the light at the end of the tunnel !!

Posted by leong1188 > 2019-11-06 14:07 | Report Abuse

The FMR LLC has been holding since 10 yrs ago with the entry cost easily at only RM1-1.60. Based on the current prices, profit taking from them is normal given the huge gains they have made in this stock.

Posted by limcs > 2019-11-06 14:21 | Report Abuse

FMR LLC already masuk pocket > 100% of return ... their pocket should be very warm now :)

Huat !!!