Posted by observatory > 2023-07-23 18:13 | Report Abuse

While car and motorcycle markets are different, HLIND shareholders need to keep an eye on how the local EV market evolves. The launch of Tesla's Model Y this week and BYD's Dolphin next week already leave their marks on BAuto share price.

Posted by lionel messi > 2023-07-24 16:56 | Report Abuse

Our board and management must be on top of the game. I trust they are competent enough. Have confidence.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-07-25 13:42 | Report Abuse

The biggest problem in Malaysia is B40 income could not catchup with inflation. They have no money to buy EV. Therefore, motorbikes that consume petrol (the fuel that could only be cheaper in future) will still be popular for decades. This is especially true for rural and suburban areas where charging station would be impractical and unprofitable.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-07-25 13:47 | Report Abuse

As for building material sector, tile manufacturing will boom because Malaysian popular has started to age. New property development will slow down. People tend to buy 2nd-hand houses at good location and renovate it with new tiles. This will happen at both cities and suburban areas. Retirees will move from cities to suburban areas and many will do renovation before they move in.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-07-25 13:49 | Report Abuse

People will choose smaller home with better renovation due to smaller family size and higher standard of living.

Posted by observatory > 2023-07-25 20:31 | Report Abuse

In a PE valuation model, share price = EPS * PE multiple.
It will take EV a long long time to displace ICE vehicles. So EPS will not be impacted, at least initially.
However, the impact to PE multiple can be immediate
This is happening to BAuto now. Despite solid market demand, its share has been de-rated by investors. 15% fall in a week

HLIND should take the lesson and prepare itself.
1. Work out a credible e-bike roadmap and communicate to the market
2. Clearly articulate its non-motorbike investments to the investing community
3. Return its mountain of idle cash to shareholders

This could re-rate the stock overnight. Surely the controlling shareholder also understand. The question is, are they willing to act on it?
Until they do, the institutional investors are standing at the sideline, despite Kenanga's recent coverage.

Posted by lionel messi > 2023-07-27 17:03 | Report Abuse

There is no need to re-rate the stock. Serious and responsible businessman don't have hang ups with share price. Let it remain in its current deep value state. A jewel will be recognised by serious investors sooner or later. Meantime, minority shareholders can quietly and slowly buy more before it gets too expensive. Wonderful life.

Posted by observatory > 2023-07-27 21:04 | Report Abuse

The market may overlook a hidden gem for a few months, or even for a few years. But for 7 years? Note the share price has been going sideway since 2017.

Today a company fundamental data is easily accessible through various stock screeners. Not to mention professional investors who could access their Bloomberg terminals. How could a hidden gem be overlooked for 7 years in a competitive market?

More likely is, while this company has good potential, it also has defects (A more polite term will be it lacks the catalyst to unlock the value)

Yes, the company free cash flow runs into several hundred millions a year. It has accumulated 1.4b net cash. These are all very impressive. But holding idle cash incurs opportunity cost. In a stock market where cost of equity is about 10% per annum, cash gives only low single digit return.

This is the main reason that the Return on Equity has been falling from about 20% in the period of FY17 to FY19, to about 16% in FY21, and less than 15% in the past 12 months.

One major missing catalyst is when will the company better utilize the idle cash, through investment and/or return to shareholders. The least the management could do is to clearly communicate their intent to the investment community.

Clear communication is not self-promotion or inflating share price. Clear communication is actually being responsible to all shareholders - reassuring the minority shareholders that the Board and management have their best interest at heart, and outline what is being done to move the company forward.

Therefore, I do not see current situation as waiting for this jewel to be recognized by serious investors. Minority shareholders already have 7 years to “quietly and slowly” buy more. Surely 7 year is more than enough time to accumulate any position!

I see the situation as waiting for the Board and management to take steps to unlock the company value. They should take a leaf from YTL Power, where management has actively reached out to analysts and fund managers since last year to improve understanding. And now look at the results.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-07-28 19:05 | Report Abuse

Not sure about others. But I'll tambah if dividend increases.

Posted by observatory > 2023-07-29 01:16 | Report Abuse

Fair enough. Afterall each of us has different return expectation and risk tolerance.

Dividend has grown modestly from 45sen in FY17 to 57sen in FY22, representing a CAGR of 4%. The current dividend yield at 6.3% implies limited downside – the reason that I continue to hold.

I will hesitate to add until there are signs of change by the Board.

I fully agree that this stock has a place within a dividend stock portfolio. My only gripe is its full potential has not realized.

Posted by lionel messi > 2023-07-30 11:52 | Report Abuse

Sardin, if you are confident enough abt an increase in dividend, tambah now. If you wait till reality, price will have risen as insiders will be buying first and push up the price. As mentioned before stock market is an insider's game. Try and beat them at their own game. Being outsiders we have no choice but to be savvy and early. After that it's just a holding and waiting game. Life is peaceful. Cheers.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-07-31 20:57 | Report Abuse

Hi Lionel, nothing to do with confidence. No money, have to save first ><.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-07-31 22:19 | Report Abuse

Market has not overlooked HLIND for 7 years. It's giving a low value to HLIND not because of its poor business, but because HLIND doesn't share its net cash with shareholders, leaving the market to speculate that one day, shareholders will lose out on the Net Cash.

Here's a sample snapshot of HLIND Net Cash over past years:
3/2016 = 275m
3/2017 = 379m
3/2018 = 645m
3/2019 = 1041m
3/2020 = 1232m
3/2021 = 1580m
3/2022 = 1351m
3/2023 = 1636m

Market has lost patience with HLIND for generating so much profit and cash, but only giving lip service increase in dividends. And yes, historically, market trust on Quek is too low that Quek will share with shareholders. Hence, market is penalizing Quek because current cash is worth at least RM5, the business priced at 9-5 = RM4.
It's long term EPS is around 90 sen, which means the business is priced only at a PE of only 4+.


Is the business really poor? Of course not! This business generates so much cash.

So, where's the problem?

Simple. Market over the past decades doesn't trust Quek. The Net Cash grew from 200 million to 1,600 million and it is not even shared with shareholders - the dividends could have been so much larger than the lip service increment given.

The best thing analyst can do is draw this long term attention to the market. Push HLIND to share its wealth with shareholders. Else, market won't value this stock well.

It doesn't take much to increase the dividend yield from current 5.9% to say 10%. The business earnings yield is right now well over 22% or higher. This means raising dividends by another 67% higher. This won't even eat into the 1.6 billion net cash.

This is a classic situation where HLIND simply refuse to share its wealth with shareholders. No matter how great the business is, no matter how large the cash pile is, they continue to refuse to share.

I have around 2% of my portfolio in HLIND to earn a paltry 6%, when this business can easily reward shareholders twice as much without dipping into its cash.

The question is - who is going to force HLIND to share its wealth with shareholders?

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-07-31 22:22 | Report Abuse

This stock is really not about electric motorcycles or anything. It has a clearly superior business that generates huge amount of cash - just look at how it increases its cash pile by 8 times in 8 years. Its management is superior. It's business model is excellent.

The only problem is - when will shareholders gets their share of the cash?

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-07-31 22:26 | Report Abuse

In case if you think that the cash cannot disappear, it is too easy for Quek to force HLIND to buy one of its own businesses at exhorbitant price, transfer the assets into HLIND and transfer the cash out of HLIND. Then, suddenly, that huge pile of RM1.6 billion disappear.

Because of this lack of trust, this stock price has stabilized around RM9 for a very, very long time. If HLIND really want to increase its share price to RM15, this can be done very easy, by just raising the dividends by 67% and the price will quickly go up.

Problem is someone has other plans for HLIND huge cash pile of RM1.6 billion and it won't go to HLIND shareholders.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-07-31 22:43 | Report Abuse

Oh, in case if you have doubts, Quek never listens to shareholders. The proof is simple:
1. Ask HLIND shareholders if they like to see some of the Net Cash position rising from 200m to 1.6 billion over past 7-8 years declared as special dividend? Yes / No?
2. Ask HLIND shareholders if they like to see a dividend payout ratio that is higher than past 8 years like 80% instead of paltry amounts like 50% in some years. Yes / No?

I can bet you that if HLIND were to survey 1,000 of minority shareholders, nearly 1000 will say Yes to both questions.

But do you think HLIND cares about minority shareholder views? Ha ha ha

Posted by observatory > 2023-08-02 00:11 | Report Abuse

@DividendGuy67, thank you for your comments. Yes, this is my main concern with HLIND, that Quek has never intended to share the cash.
The track records of other Hong Leong companies are not exactly reassuring. I've mentioned a few examples earlier.

Fortunately, listing rules dictate that the controlling shareholder must seek EGM approval for any related party transaction that is above 5% of revenue/ profit/ asset value ...and the controlling shareholder has to abstain from the vote.
(They could still bypass minority shareholders' votes if RPT value is just below 5%, like how Genting Malaysia bailed out Empire Resorts by buying from Lim family's private asset.)
The key is the minority shareholders must be smart enough and united in rejecting any unfair deal. Such unity usually breaks down if the share price has been declining for a few years, as new shareholders/ traders may happily accept a privatization offer at 20% premium to prevailing share price, even though the offer price is a steep discount to the company's long term value. Recent example includes MMC privatization.

Fortunately, in HLIND case, the company performance has been good and consistent. I don't see any near term possibility for share price to drop to too low a level. Quek could not, for example, privatize at RM9 when share price drops to RM7
That doesn't stop Quek from trying to privatize at RM11 at current price of RM9. But I doubt it will succeed.

There could be other tricks that I'm not aware of. But as long as the Board is willing to pay dividends (dividends were paid even in mid 2020, albeit with a cut from 35sen to 25sen), the downside is limited.
To be prudent, I ignore the net cash in my valuation (you're right it's RM1.6b now; I wrote RM1.4b which should be 2022 net cash).
I don't like the RM400m investment in tile manufacturing, where there has been little explanation. But given that I've ignored the RM1.6b cash, I shall ignore RM400m too.
While 10X PE and 6% dividend yield may not be fantastic, it's good enough. I will only think about what to do with my holding (to sell or to hold) should market changes its mind, and for no good reason pushes it to RM10-11 range.

Posted by Fabien _the efficient capital allocator > 2023-08-04 11:18 | Report Abuse

Just hold. i have been holding this stock for 5 years. treat it as fixed deposit. you can choose to reinvest the dividends in this company or deploy elsewhere for better returns.

this company has good economics. generate huge cash flows with low capex requirements.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-08-06 14:21 | Report Abuse

Observatory, net cash, the PE is only 4+, and dividend yield at RM9 is 6%, so, for me, I'm happy to hold my 2% in this stock, put it in a drawer mentally,. and forget I even own this stock. My cost is well below RM9, if price drops below my cost, I'm happy to add but otherwise, not really much for me to do as it is a good boring stock. Clearly the TTM57 sen dividend is supportable for long term, I cannot imagine them cutting dividends, however, the only thing I can imagine is one day, either one time or several times, some of that cash holdings won't necessarily go to minority shareholders when it should be.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-08-06 14:23 | Report Abuse

Quek is a shrewd businessman, it's deep in his DNA to find ways to enrich himself further and Bursa rules doesn't apply to him.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-08-06 14:27 | Report Abuse

If we compare HLIND to say MAYBANK, clearly, one is more superior to dividend investor than the other. I have greater peace of mind and hold much larger in one than the other. The wierd thing is business wise, I like the other one better, only if he shares the wealth with shareholder.

Posted by lionel messi > 2023-08-07 14:18 | Report Abuse

Hello DividendGuy67. What you have narrated above is that HLIND is a gem of a stock with a win win balance between the safety of a consistent high dividend but boring stock while at the same time has great growth potential. Wow, this is god sent and I fully agree. This is a goldilocks stock, not too hot, not too cold. I will add more even at current price levels. No need to wait for if and when it goes lower. Life is good. Cheers.

Posted by observatory > 2023-08-09 21:30 | Report Abuse

When I first commented on i3 a few years ago, I benefited from the insights of people like kywoo. Kywoo liked three companies – Hong Leong Industries, RCE Capital, and Allianz. It happened that I also liked them. Over the next two years we discussed the merits of these stocks on and off.

The three stocks had several similarities – strong business fundamentals, domestic markets, good management, mid/ small cap, continuous records of earnings and dividend payment over at least ten years, and the valuation was also not demanding.

But they also have differences – HLIND and RCE are controlled by local tycoons while Allianz is a MNC. REC had a smaller market cap then. It also operated in a niche market of personal loans to civil servants.

Posted by observatory > 2023-08-09 21:31 | Report Abuse

I have reservation about HLIND’s cash hoarding right from the beginning. I also view HLIND as being less transparent versus the other two. For example, in its annual reports it would lump performances of different businesses together instead of providing breakdown. Unlike the other two, it also did not open to analysts through regular results updates.

Therefore it was not a surprise that HLIND share price remained range bound. In fact, on a 5-year basis (week 7-Aug-2018 to today), even after adding back dividends received, the total return was practically zero (RM8.98 to RM8.99). In fact, if dividends are excluded, the return would be -23% (RM11.70 to RM8.99)!

Posted by observatory > 2023-08-09 21:33 | Report Abuse

On the other hand, RCE Capital was a pleasant surprise. For several years, the growth was rather weak at low single digit. RCE profit records are not superior to HLIND. But one big difference is RCE Board was willing to return excess capital to shareholders, thereby improving its capital efficiency as illustrated in its robust ROE.

After adjusting for the bonus share issue, annual dividend was increased from 3 sen in 2017, to 4 sen in 2018, 5 sen in 2019, 6 sen in 2020, 7 sen in 2021, and 9 sen in 2022. And there was another 18 sen special dividend in late 2022.

The market took notice of RCE’s good corporate governance. On a 5-year basis, share price grew 163% (from RM0.83 to RM2.22) on unadjusted basis. After factoring dividend, share price actually grew 296% (RM0.56 to RM2.22)!

Posted by observatory > 2023-08-09 21:38 | Report Abuse

Out of these 3 stocks, I like Allianz the most. Allianz’s 5-year return is not as impressive as RCE, but it is still much better than HLIND. On unadjusted basis, its return was 21% (from RM12.50 to RM15.14). After dividends are included, it returned 54% (from RM9.81 to RM15.14). So, unlike HLIND, a 5-year investment in Allianz has at least earned the cost of capital for its shareholders!

More importantly, just like RCE Capital, Allianz has been returning excess cash to shareholders in increasing amount. Dividend per share has increased from 40 sen in 2018 to 85 sen in 2022, and is still increasing. So the market has taken notice recently. Share price has been moving upward in tandem.

Of course, there are many other good investment opportunities besides these three companies. I mention these three for illustration purpose – that good businesses and good management alone are no guarantee for good investment return. The Board has to be shareholders oriented, and is willing to share its fruits with the minorities!

Therefore until HLIND board shows sign by being more (minority) shareholders centric, I will continue to underweight HLIND and overweight Allianz.

Posted by lionel messi > 2023-08-22 12:23 | Report Abuse

Great call Observatory. Allianz is surging. Hopefully one day HLIND will be like this. It has all the necessary ingredients. After all Quek is getting old. Not implying he is sick or going to go soon. Just that when people are nearer to god or heaven, they can change to be more generous. Sort of like a calling or born again. Cheers.

Posted by ykloh > 2023-08-22 15:24 | Report Abuse

Bonus issue and share split is overdue.

Posted by remus > 2023-08-24 12:47 | Report Abuse

Useful insight & sharing from Observatory DividendGuy67.
despite the growing huge cash pile, > 60% div payout from earnings is quite reasonable, can't really accuse the company for not sharing the profit.
my gut feeling is, nothing going to change (on cash pile) as long Quek is around. anyway the old man is 82, if we can hold the stock long enough; the hope is eventually someone with different mind will emerge to do something that could uplift the stock valuation & price.

Posted by lionel messi > 2023-08-29 10:53 | Report Abuse

Fair comment remus. As long as dividend yield is more than 6%, I can live with that.

Posted by Fabien _the efficient capital allocator > 2023-09-06 21:30 | Report Abuse

Look at this way. you are getting paid 6% every year while waiting. this is cash rich company risk of bankruptcy is low. has dominant market share. stable earnings and cash flows.

Posted by lionel messi > 2023-09-08 08:11 | Report Abuse

Spot on Fabien. Just auto cruise and enjoy the scenery. Wonderful. Life is peaceful. Cheers.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-17 15:54 | Report Abuse

Quek can live up to 100 quite easily with the monies he has. But I am also okay to get 6% returns for the next 18 years ..... haha

Posted by Sardin > 2023-09-21 12:13 | Report Abuse

For a certain reason, I think there will be a great news for all shareholders not late than 2025, and most likely to be in within next 12 months. The news that all of you have been waiting for so long.

Posted by lionel messi > 2023-09-21 15:04 | Report Abuse

Thanks Sardin and long time no hear. I also have a certain feeling you are going to be right. Cheers.

Posted by keithtrade > 2023-09-24 11:00 | Report Abuse

Yes they may well be accumulating capital for expansion or new venture such as electric motorcycle

Posted by lionel messi > 2023-09-29 07:56 | Report Abuse

Will competition from many new electric scooter players impact HLI? Trust the board and management are on top of the game and we remain taikor in our core business.

Posted by ykloh > 2023-09-29 10:07 | Report Abuse

E scooter will definitely impact HLI.

Posted by lionel messi > 2023-09-29 14:22 | Report Abuse

HLI can and will also be market leader in electric scooter lor. No big deal and no problem. We have the means, size, expertise and connection.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-09-29 18:44 | Report Abuse

The Queks are buying... they already own 77%... what do you think is their next move?

Posted by ykloh > 2023-09-29 23:44 | Report Abuse

Could it be a selective capital repayment to buy out the minority shareholders ?

Posted by lionel messi > 2023-10-01 16:42 | Report Abuse

HLI has plenty of cash, a dominant market share, bright prospect going forward with the implementation of targeted petrol subsidy. Makes great economic sense to take it private. The shrewd, savvy and opportunist like Quek will surely be aware of this and is getting ready to pounce before gets too expensive. Too cheap and lucrative to ignore and share.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-10-02 17:56 | Report Abuse

Highly possible. The price spread and movement is very small... extraordinarily small, don't you feel strange?

Posted by Sardin > 2023-10-02 18:20 | Report Abuse

Hi lionel messi, do you plan to attend AGM? Just curious... anyone know what door gift was given in the AGM last year?

Posted by lionel messi > 2023-10-03 08:51 | Report Abuse

Unable to Sardin. Football season is still on in the US :))

Posted by lionel messi > 2023-10-04 11:33 | Report Abuse

Sardin, anything extra you can decipher from the latest annual report. Looks like their e scooter is launching soon. Great development.

Posted by lionel messi > 2023-10-05 10:39 | Report Abuse

Somebody wants to put a floor on the price by stacking buy orders at various prices. Interesting....

Posted by Sardin > 2023-10-09 21:00 | Report Abuse

Hi lionel messi, I do not put too much focus on the e scooter because those things are technical and design ready and I do not worry about HLYM's manufacturing and marketing capability. I believe motorcycle sales continue to be resilient and boring while sales of tiles are recovering with widening profit margin. Overall I'm confident that sustainable EPS above 90 sen annually is quite possible for the present and next financial year.

Posted by Dehcomic01 > 2023-10-29 09:12 | Report Abuse

In my analysis of the Bursa auto sector, (https://focusmalaysia.my/are-there-investment-opportunities-in-the-bursa-auto-sector/) HLInd came up on top of my screen. Of course, you have to dig deeper if you want to invest as a value investor

Posted by x3mg33 > 2023-10-31 16:35 | Report Abuse

Has anyone been to the AGM today? Can share some good news?