mikekong55, so I should hold on to my shares 1st & don't do anything? Hmm... since i don't have extra bullet, I also can't do anything now. Wait until I get my bonus in May only decide ba~ Happy, 1st time get bonus in my life time~
HLIND will rise more, why? Institution buying, simple as this. And future of cements will be good. Tasek and NARRA, use some imagination, something bigger brewing.
I) PROPOSED DISPOSALS BY HONG LEONG INDUSTRIES BERHAD (“HLI”) OF: (A) 30,000,000 ORDINARY SHARES OF RM1.00 EACH REPRESENTING 100% EQUITY INTEREST IN HUME INDUSTRIES (MALAYSIA) SDN BHD TO NARRA INDUSTRIES BERHAD (“NARRA”) FOR A DISPOSAL CONSIDERATION OF RM48,000,000 TO BE SATISFIED BY THE ISSUANCE OF 48,000,000 NEW ORDINARY SHARES OF RM1.00 EACH IN NARRA (“NEW NARRA SHARES”) AT AN ISSUE PRICE OF RM1.00 EACH; AND
(B) THE ENTIRE 175,000,000 6-YEAR 2% NON-CUMULATIVE IRREDEEMABLE CONVERTIBLE PREFERENCE SHARES OF RM1.00 EACH IN HUME CEMENT SDN BHD TO NARRA FOR A DISPOSAL CONSIDERATION OF RM300,000,000 TO BE SATISFIED BY THE ISSUANCE OF 300,000,000 NEW NARRA SHARES AT AN ISSUE PRICE OF RM1.00 EACH (COLLECTIVELY, THE “PROPOSED DISPOSALS”); AND
(II) PROPOSED CAPITAL DISTRIBUTION INVOLVING THE DISTRIBUTION OF 345,030,635 NEW NARRA SHARES TO SHAREHOLDERS OF HLI BY WAY OF A CAPITAL REDUCTION EXERCISE IN ACCORDANCE WITH SECTION 64 OF THE COMPANIES ACT, 1965 AND A CAPITAL REPAYMENT EXERCISE ON THE BASIS OF 1,080 NEW NARRA SHARES FOR EVERY 1,000 ORDINARY SHARES OF RM1.00 EACH IN HLI HELD ON AN ENTITLEMENT DATE TO BE DETERMINED AND ANNOUNCED LATER
This is a company that have proven itself through the years to be able to weather all kind of market conditions by producing resilent business results that keep on improving despite intense market competition. You can feel that it is a very strong and persisitent company. I believe share prices have better upside in the future. Anyone should be comfortable holding this counter, it pays dividends twice a year and the current market price is justifiable. Already makes 40 cents per share or net profit of 153 million in the last 9 months. In brief, it share price is better bargain than those semiconductors shares like Unisem and MPI. I think its motocycles are also selling like hotcakes.
MONEY TALK HONG LEONG INDUSTRIES (HLI MK) Tapping On The Growth Of Hume Cement We are increasingly positive on the growth prospects of Hume Cement, underpinned by its plant’s improving efficiency and a potential doubling in production capacity to cater to more markets. Given the relatively lofty valuation in Narra, investing in Hume Cement through HLI (HLI investors to receive 1.08 Narra shares for every share held) could be a more attractive option. Upgrade HLI to BUY with a higher target price of RM7.95. WHAT’S NEW • Increasing target price to RM7.95. As we are more optimistic on the operational efficiency and utilisation rate of the Hume Cement plant 18 months after production commencement, we raise our forecast for Hume Cement’s 2015 net profit to RM70m (from RM55m) and thus Narra’s 2015 net profit forecast to RM80m. Pegging at a higher 18x of (previously 17x) 2015 PE for Narra, our SOTP target price for HLI is raised to RM7.95, from RM7.16. • To double cement production capacity in 2 years’ time. We understand Hume Cement’s plant utilisation rate has hit 82-85% and the company intends to double the capacity via Phase 2 expansion adjacent to its existing plant. This potential RM500m-600m expansion will see Hume Cement’s capacity surpassing that of some peers (potentially becoming the third-largest cement player) and improving its economies of scale. After ramping up its capacity, Hume Cement plans to penetrate the southern regional markets which it has yet to have a presence. And in the longer term, it may also consider moving downstream to the ready-mix cement market. • Potentially to use par value for share price adjustment. Separately, we understand that so far, Bursa seems to have no issue with HLI’s proposal to use the par value to adjust its share price to reflect the distribution of Narra shares to HLI shareholders (1.08 Narra shares for every HLI share). If so, after the shares go ex Narra distribution, HLI’s share price will be adjusted by RM1.08, which is significantly lower than the potential distribution value of Narra of >RM5/HLI share (based on Narra’s present valuation). STOCK IMPACT • Restructuring exercise expected to complete in end-September. Management is hopeful of completing the restructuring exercise by end-September. The company is currently waiting for the court’s approval for capital reduction and distribution. KEY
• Hume Cement doing well in FY14. After achieved an impressive RM7.8m net profit in FY13 with only one quarter of official commissioning production, we understand Hume Cement is likely to achieve more than RM50m net profit in FY14. Moving into FY15, we believe the higher utilisation rate and gradual improvement in efficiency will allow Hume Cement to see further bottom-line improvement. Hume Cement’s good limestone reserves make it more efficient than peers who source for limestone externally. Our 2015 RM70m net profit forecast assumes 1.6m-tonne production and RM295/tonne net selling price. • Expecting sustainable earnings and dividend payout post restructuring. HLI’s earnings are sustainable or stronger in FY15-16, after stripping out Hume Cement’s ICPS and Hume Concrete. We expect better prospects from its other building material segments (significant turnaround at Guocera tiles division as well as additional capacity and better pricing in the fibreboard business) to offset the exclusion of Hume Concrete’s earnings from the group. In addition, Hume Cement currently does not contribute any earnings to HLI’s bottom line, with the exception of dividend income from the ICPS. • Prospective dividend yield of 4.7-5.2%. While there is no formal dividend policy, management guided that HLI will continue paying out at least 50-55% of its earnings (FY15F DPS of 27-30 sen). This implies a prospective yield of 4.7-5.2% after HLI’s share price goes-ex, assuming a RM1.08 share price adjustment. EARNINGS REVISION • No change to our earnings forecasts but we increase Narra’s 2015 net profit forecast by 23%. VALUATION/RECOMMENDATION • Upgrade to BUY with a higher target price of RM7.95, derived by adding: a) the implied value of Narra share at RM3.39/HLI share (HLI’s shareholders will be receiving 1,080 Narra shares for every 1,000 HLI shares), and b) a 20% holding company discount to our SOTP valuation of RM5.70 for HLI’s remaining assets. Our valuation methodology is unchanged and we revise Narra’s 2015 PE valuation from 17x to 18x. • 18x 2015F PE for Narra is reasonable. We deem an 18x (previously 17x) 2015F PE for Narra is fair, given that peers are trading at an average of 19x 2015F PE. Furthermore, we believe Hume Cement has better growth prospects as it plans to significantly raise production capacity in the intermediate term.
John Cash, I have a question for you. If as you said, Hume cement is expected to register net profit of RM50 million for FY14 and Narra after the restructuring is going to become a roughly RM379 million shares of par value 1 dollar company ( capital reduction 62milion/2=31 million + new shares to issue to HLI = 348 million) , the mathematics will tell you that than means Narra will make only about 13 cent per share. My question is how can a company that makes 50 million/379 million=13 cent per share be expected to register a market price of >RM5 per share. Do you know mathematics?
Actually, Narra will have to issue the whole of 448 million shares to acquire new businesses and capital restructuring of 62 million/2=31 million shares. Narra will have new share capital of 479 million shares. If net profit is going to be just RM50 million for FY14, it does not justified your prediction of a price of >RM5.
Ya CB! You are right! Words speaker louder than actions. I see this counter looking like it is half dead already. Are you trying to get people to rush in so that you can get out of this counter? We are all adults, we already know how to take care of ourselves.
Cowboy, AS a buyer or a seller, I don't know which side you are on ? If you are the buyer, you want to try to pay the seller a market price that is as close as to its net tangible asset per share (book value)!!!!!!! Of course, if you are the seller, you want to use PE ratio to try to convince your buyer what you are selling is of good quality and you deserve a premium for what you are selling (fair market PE ratio is 15).
For a buyer or seller, the use of PE implies differently. For the seller, they use PE ratio to ask for a premium price, but the buyer can use the PE ratio to check how risky is the purchase.
Bear it in mind, to the buyer, the PE ratio is only a way for you to guage whether the company is currently financially healthy or not. A PE ratio of 15 or below implies that a company relative to the current market price is risk-free (send a green light to buy). A good deal is however to buy a company that has a PE ratio of around 12 since 15 is fair value. AS a buyer, you want to buy at a price not more than 10 % of nta or the book value of an asset to realize a profit (This is warren Buffett's way of doing thing).
Most Importantly, HLI's net tangible asset value now is RM4.11 per share. If you apply the Warren Buffet way, the fair price of HLI is RM4.50 per share (RM4.11*1.10).
As for Narra, its business value is zero because it hasn't been able to turn in a substantial profit in the past 5 years.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
林俊松
6,930 posts
Posted by 林俊松 > 2014-02-15 17:13 | Report Abuse
mikekong55, so long. Walao~
How u knw the date ya?
Then I better get more lots b4 the date~