Posted by Good123 > 2023-03-06 08:42 | Report Abuse

Ytl paid rm3.75 per share to lafarge previously,now rm2.25, time for privatisation too, a good proposition Indeed

Posted by Good123 > 2023-03-06 08:49 | Report Abuse

Jualan 2022 rm1.7bil+ > 2021 hanya rm1.1bil+

2023 lagi tinggi sektor pembinaan dah kembali normal ... Pandemik kovid dah tamat...

Vaksin dah tak laku dalam kalangan warga msia kini

Posted by Good123 > 2023-03-06 08:50 | Report Abuse

Harga penswastaan jika jadi rm4 - rm5, nta rm4.42 @31.12.22

Posted by Good123 > 2023-03-06 08:53 | Report Abuse

Mrt, lrt, ecrl, rumah kos mampu milik, dll akan memerlukan banyak simen

Posted by Good123 > 2023-03-06 08:54 | Report Abuse

Banyak projek perumahan dah siap... Renovasi juga menggunakan banyak simen

Posted by nicholas99 > 2023-03-06 08:55 | Report Abuse

privatize at 2.00 gogogogo YTL

Posted by Good123 > 2023-03-06 09:32 | Report Abuse

bernama.com
https://www.bernama.com › news
Cement prices continued to climb in December 2022 -- DOSM
9 Jan 2023 — -- The unit price index of cement rose 1.5 per cent in December 2022 from November 2022, marking the second consecutive month of increase, ...

Malay Mail
https://www.malaymail.com › news
Report: Cement prices up 30pc since Oct, yet to come down
6 Dec 2022 — Citing several industry players, the Malay daily reported that the average 50kg bag of cement jumped 30 per cent

Posted by Good123 > 2023-03-06 09:41 | Report Abuse

Rebound of cement players are inevitable

https://www.theborneopost.com/2023/01/10/cement-price-up-by-15-per-cent-in-sabah/

Posted by Good123 > 2023-03-06 09:47 | Report Abuse

Time to accumulate cement stocks, it would rebound rigorously...cement prices are rising like airlines fares

Posted by Good123 > 2023-03-06 09:48 | Report Abuse

The next boom stock is cement

GlobeNewswire
https://www.globenewswire.com › ...
Global Cement Market to Hit Sales of $459 Billion by 2028 |
23 Nov 2022 — Global cement market was valued at USD 323.24 Billion in 2021, and it is expected to reach a value of USD 459.06 Billion by 2028, ...

Global Cement
https://www.globalcement.com › Pri...
Displaying items by tag: Prices
In the US market, the company's cement volumes increased by 5.6% in 2021, with a 5.1% rise in concrete sales. Prices in

Posted by Good123 > 2023-03-06 11:01 | Report Abuse

uptrend for cement players baru bermula, ada wang accumulate

Posted by Good123 > 2023-03-06 11:04 | Report Abuse

keuntungan bertambah bagus
Financial Year: 30-Jun-2023
23-Feb-2023 31-Dec-2022 896,969 24,314 15,317 15,258 1.71% 0.26% 1.16 0.00 4.42 1,501.05% -72.22%
24-Nov-2022 30-Sep-2022 858,854 4,130 917 953 0.11% 0.02% 0.07 0.00 4.41 -97.21%

Posted by Good123 > 2023-03-06 11:05 | Report Abuse

harga yg dibayar oleh ytl untuk membelinya dulu

15/05/2019 00:00:00 3.7500 0.0300 90.000m 433.345m 337.500m 1.625b 3.7500 10.5920 -
15/05/2019 00:00:00 3.7500 0.0300 90.000m 433.345m 337.500m 1.625b 3.7500 10.5920 -
15/05/2019 00:00:00 3.7500 0.0300 90.000m 433.345m 337.500m 1.625b 3.7500 10.5920 -
15/05/2019 00:00:00 3.7500 0.0300 90.000m 433.345m 337.500m 1.625b 3.7500 10.5920 -
15/05/2019 00:00:00 3.7500 0.0300 73.345m 433.345m 275.043m 1.625b 3.7500 8.6319 -

Posted by Good123 > 2023-03-06 11:06 | Report Abuse

sebelum pandemik, harga belian RM3.75, kini dah endemik, balik ke harga sebelum pandemik OTW

Posted by Good123 > 2023-03-06 11:12 | Report Abuse

5:05PM
MCEMENT MICHAEL YEOH SOCK SIONG (15,000,000 units Transacted)
Wednesday, 22 Feb 2023
5:39PM
MCEMENT YOOGALINGAM A/L VYRAMUTTU (1,000,000 units Transacted)
5:39PM
MCEMENT ASMAT BIN KAMALUDIN (1,000,000 units Transacted)
Tuesday, 21 Feb 2023
5:02PM
MCEMENT YEOH SEOK KIAN (15,000,000 units Transacted)
Monday, 20 Feb 2023
5:26PM
MCEMENT YEOH SEOK HONG (15,000,000 units Transacted)
5:26PM
MCEMENT YEOH SOO KENG (15,000,000 units Transacted)
5:26PM
MCEMENT FRANCIS YEOH SOCK PING (15,000,000 units Transacted)
Monday, 13 Feb 2023
5:06PM
MCEMENT YEOH KHOON CHENG (1,000,000 units Transacted)
Thursday, 9 Feb 2023
5:28PM
MCEMENT TAN GUAN CHEONG (1,000,000 units Transacted)

Posted by Good123 > 2023-03-06 11:17 | Report Abuse

Terbaiklah


The Acquisition continues to bolster profitability and value enhancement. The effectiveness and efficiency of the Group’s cement operations and ability to deliver seamless solutions to customers will be optimised, boding well for the positive growth and outlook of the Group and the industry going forward. In addition, the Langkawi Plant is well positioned to capitalise on the continuing healthy demand from the export market.

Posted by Good123 > 2023-03-06 13:06 | Report Abuse

RM2.50 to RM3 easily achievable

Posted by Good123 > 2023-03-06 13:07 | Report Abuse

cement usage starts booming.... all projects restarted... tak banyak orang pakai mask kini

Posted by Good123 > 2023-03-06 13:49 | Report Abuse

retained earnings RM400mil++++++++++ boleh bayar dividen tak terhingga :)

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION - continued

Unaudited
As at Audited
As at
31.12.2022 30.06.2022
RM’000 RM’000
EQUITY
Share capital 5,345,817 5,345,817
Reserves:
Foreign currency translation reserve 37,110 33,032
Fair value reserve 3,373 3,373
Retained earnings 409,124 392,912
Equity attributable to owners of the parent 5,795,424 5,775,134
Non-controlling interests 3,815 3,793
TOTAL EQUITY 5,799,239 5,778,927

LIABILITIES

Non-current liabilities
Lease liabilities 32,317 36,587
Borrowings 2,828,738 2,986,526
Deferred tax liabilities 71,094 85,258
Post-employment benefit obligations 21,936 21,734
2,954,085 3,130,105
Current liabilities
Trade and other payables 754,084 650,073
Contract liabilities 2,055 3,055
Amount due to holding companies 4,464 4,397
Amount due to related companies 20,296 19,304
Lease liabilities 15,627 18,799
Borrowings 935,114 813,614
Post-employment benefit obligations 1,737 2,422
Income tax liabilities 8,891 4,586
1,742,268 1,516,250
TOTAL LIABILITIES 4,696,353 4,646,355
TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES 10,495,592 10,425,282
Net assets per share (RM) 4.42 4.41

Posted by Good123 > 2023-03-06 13:50 | Report Abuse

tunai dari operasi ~RM90juta, hebat!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS FOR THE FINANCIAL PERIOD ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2022

6 Months Ended
31.12.2022 31.12.2021
RM’000 RM’000
Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Profit before tax 28,444 47,073
Adjustments for:-
Amortisation of intangible assets 1,066 1,065
Depreciation of:
- investment properties 2 2
- property, plant and equipment 120,995 95,148
- right-of-use assets 9,899 10,148
Dividend income (4) (180)
Interest expense 96,671 57,278
Gain on disposal of property, plant and equipment (net) (642) (2,179)
Gain on termination of leases (net) (1) -
Interest income (6,195) (3,095)
Property, plant and equipment written off 607 37
Provision for inventory obsolescence (net) 300 1,080
Provision for retirement benefit 473 460
Reversal of impairment loss on receivables (net) (67) (9,870)
Share of results of joint venture (20,907) (20,305)
Unrealised gain on foreign exchange (net) (2,372) (2,511)
Operating profit before changes in working capital 228,269 174,151
Changes in working capital:-
Inventories (16,289) (15,947)
Receivables (27,099) (61,102)
Other assets (28,886) (36,326)
Payables 103,923 21,083
Contract liabilities (1,000) (985)
Related parties balances (56,126) 120,577
Cash generated from operations 202,792 201,451
Interest paid (89,881) (87,323)
Interest received 6,003 3,095
Retirement benefit paid (271) (794)
Income tax paid (net) (29,189) (19,697)
Net cash generated from operating activities 89,454 96,732


The Condensed Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows should be read in conjunction with the audited financial statements for the financial year ended 30 June 2022 and the accompanying explanatory notes attached to the interim financial statements.

Posted by Good123 > 2023-03-06 13:52 | Report Abuse

kaya tunai , hebat!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Cash and cash equivalents comprise :-
Fixed deposits with licensed banks 437,562,000
Cash and cash balances 153,375,000
Total RM590,937,000

Posted by simonwong8238 > 2023-03-14 09:12 | Report Abuse

This share can trade for 3 months?

Posted by samlim30 > 2023-03-29 16:31 | Report Abuse

详细技术分析点评Mcement：-
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/cube/blog/blposts/mcementbysamlim/samlim30

Posted by yong1985cm > 2023-05-17 07:59 | Report Abuse

hume has announced excellent result, same will happen to ytl cement?

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-17 10:44 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/dragon328/2022-08-29-story-h1628813084-YTL_Corp_4QFY2022_Continuous_Improvements_in_Utilities_Hospitality_and_

Read this article again to gauge how much earnings MCement can make in this upcoming Q3

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-17 10:44 | Report Abuse

The differences now compared to last August are that bulk cement prices are above RM380/MT and coal prices have dropped by half since Jan 2023

Posted by 80gram > 2023-05-22 08:21 | Report Abuse

so, what's your best guess this quarter will do? Mcement is 5-6x bigger, market share wise than Hume...My simple estimate sld be 5-6x of Hume's profit

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-22 11:05 | Report Abuse

Exactly how much MCement can earn this quarter, I don't know. But looking at the parameters, I expect MCement to report a record quarterly EBITDA and profit.

Hume made how much profit in its latest qtr? RM15m or so? MCement will easily beat that by 7x.

Posted by 80gram > 2023-05-23 12:00 | Report Abuse

YTLC prides themselves to be more efficient...So, not expecting anything less if Hume and CMS can deliver the results

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-26 16:10 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/dragon328/2023-05-26-story-h-269658206-YTL_YTL_Power_Croaching_Tiger_Hidden_Dragon

An update note based on latest quarterly result

Posted by observatory > 2023-05-26 19:16 | Report Abuse

@dragon328, thanks for the sharing.

With increased pace in property construction, and assuming more infrastructure projects are rolled out in 1-2 year time, what is your estimate of a sustainable revenue level, margin and valuation of MCement?

Looking back at Lafarge Malaysia history, annual revenue reached ~RM2.8 billion during the boom time of 2012-14. PBT margin was as high as 18% (in 2013).

After acquiring YTL Cement assets, capacity should have been expanded further. Rawang plant has been closed for upgrade. Once completed, it should become a more efficient plant.

On the valuation side, we have to account for the 467m ICPS issued when acquiring YTL Cement assets.

I'm trying to get an idea of what a full valuation will look like. Any idea?

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-28 11:55 | Report Abuse

@Observatory, first on the 467m ICPS, I think I have included this into the enlarged share base of 1,310 million shares. I double checked that MCement share base was 853m in 2020, so total share base has expanded by 457m, a little short of the 467m you stated.

I am not sure of the discrepancy. You may have more details.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-28 12:12 | Report Abuse

As for projections of revenue and profits going forward, it is not easy. To be honest I have got it wrong twice, both occasions on the cost side.

MCement achieved revenue of RM990m in the latest Q3 2023 and gross profit of RM277m (gross profit margin of 28%). If annualised, MCement may achieve revenue of RM4.0 billion a year.

But this can change easily, depending on the coal prices and bulk cement selling prices going forward. I would expect gross profit margin to expand in next Q4 after the assumed forward hedges at higher coal prices wind down.

However, over long term, I think the current margin of 28% can sustain or at slightly higher level of 30% when demand improves. So on a sustainable basis, I would expect gross profit of RM300m per quarter and RM1.2 billion per year.
Minus out depreciation charges, interest expenses and other overhead that total RM750-800m a year, profit before tax can maintain at around RM400-450 million a year.

Cashflows will be higher at RM650-700m a year after adding back depreciation charges. Capex is usually less than RM50m a year, so free cashflows may hit RM650m a year or 50 sen a share.
Assuming a 60% payout, dividend payments may top 30 sen a share, which values the stock at RM4.28 at 7% yield.

Posted by observatory > 2023-05-28 14:26 | Report Abuse

@dragon328, thanks for sharing your calculation.

I refer to quarterly report Note B13 (i) and (ii), wt. avg number of ordinary shares is 1,310m. ICPS 467m. The fully diluted share base = 1,310m + 467m = 1,777m.

Yes, it's difficult to project future revenue and profit for such cyclical industry with highly variable cost, volume and ASP.

One simple approach I used is to assume that, in the long run, the business will at least earns its cost of capital, and shareholders earn their cost of equity. Price to book should be at least 1 time.
The latest equity attraibutable to owner is RM5,870m. Divided by 1,777m (assumed all ICPS converted), net asset per share = RM3.30. So I assume RM3.3 is a conservative estimate for the long term share price.

However, when acquiring from Lafarge, and again when injecting assets into Malaycan Cement, YTL valued it at RM3.75 per share. Maybe they're confident to generate synergy and to create more values from the enlarged business.

Another approach is to use asset replacement cost. I once read in a HLIB report that replacement cost is USD100 per metric ton of capacity. I failed to find other sources that confirm their assumption. Let's assume they're right.
HLIB put the current capacity at 23.84m Ton.
Therefore the enterprise value = 23.84m * USD100 * 4.6 (exchange rate) = RM10,966m
Fair market cap = EV (10,966m) - non controlling interest (4m) - debt (3,519m) + cash (474m) = RM7,921m
Dividend by 1,777m shares, value per share = RM4.46

Based on above methods, the long run value I got is between RM3.3 to RM4.5 (but your value is lower at RM3.13 if divided by 1,777m shares)

Posted by observatory > 2023-05-28 15:49 | Report Abuse

Extracted from HLIB's latest report:

"We believe attaching a 50% discount to 10 year P/B mean is justified considering: (i) structurally
lower infra spending (vs the past) and (ii) heavy carbon emitting business"

"Our TP is derived based on fully diluted target P/B multiple of 0.87x based on c.50% discount to 10 year P/B average (implies -1SD to 10 year mean)"

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-28 23:10 | Report Abuse

Apologies, I made a mistake in the above cashflow calculations. I need to deduct projected tax payments estimated at RM140m a year, so free cashflows may come to RM510 million a year, still able to support dividend payouts of 30 sen a share. (excluding ICPS which I assume is not entitled to ordinary dividend payouts)

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-28 23:14 | Report Abuse

The replacement cost method you presented above is sound, my only reservation is that we may need to apply some discount as MCement has not been using up all its production capacity, not even 70% after incorporating capacity of YTL Cement and Lafarge.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-28 23:22 | Report Abuse

I do not have the latest research report of HLB on MCement. Based on your note above, HLB is giving a TP based on 0.87x of fully diluted P/B. If the fully diluted book value is RM3.30 as per what you calculated above, then the TP given by HLB is RM2.87?

Again, I am not a fan of the P/B valuation method, unless you think that MCement may be sold to another party at such a valuation method. Another reason why I do not like the P/B valuation is that MCement has a large asset value after incorporating assets of YTL Cement and Lafarge, which has quite some spare capacity in current cement market here.

Also I am puzzled on HLB suggestion to apply a 50% discount to the 10 year mean P/B of MCement, based on the 2 reasons above: 1) lower infra spending now, 2) heavy carbon emitting

Cement business is always heavy carbon emitting, and has been like that in past decades, why apply 50% discount now on such an environmental concern?

Lower infra spending now compared to the past? Lower by how much? compared to which year in the past?

To me, it is just an arbitrary number.

Posted by Tibbers > 2023-05-29 10:53 | Report Abuse

RM3.20

Posted by observatory > 2023-05-29 11:44 | Report Abuse

HLIB's TP is RM2.78 based on 0.87x P/B multiple.
Working backward, the book value per share = RM3.2, which is slightly lower than my calculated BVPS at RM3.3
10 year average PB should therefore = 2 * 0.87 = 1.74x.
P/B multiple should correlate with ROE. The highest ROE achieved was about 11% in 2012-13.

However I notice the share price peaked in 2013 to 15, close to RM10 per share, even though profits were less impressive.
I suspect the share price then was driven by speculative fever as it was the period where the Najib's government tied to push multiple mega projects like LRT3, MRT3, HSR, ECRL ...

Yes, HLIB's position of 50% discount to 10-year PB average is arbitrary. However, they have a point that future infra spending is unlikely to match Najib's time, which sent Lafarge Malaysia share price to almost RM10 on future expectation that never came true. Hence a lower valuation now as compared to the past standard.

Their second justification on "heavy carbon emitting business" probably refers to fund managers today shunning perceived polluting companies. Either these managers' mandate prohibit them from investing, or they're concerned about how to exit in the future if many other fund managers are prohibited from investing. Such reduced interest from money managers due to ESG factor is a recent development. So it could also drive valuation lower as compared to the past.

Posted by observatory > 2023-05-29 11:49 | Report Abuse

I agree that P/B approach is not satisfactory due to the arbitrary nature of book value. But valuation based on multiple allow easy comparison with the past. The other multiple appoaches like P/E, P/S, P/CF are equally challenging due to business volatility as discussed earlier.

You have a good point on current low utilization. Yes, valuation cannot reach replacement cost if the industry is still awash with idle capacity in the forseeable future. Replacement cost, at best, represents the ceiling of valuation at this moment.

Yeah, the ICPS is entitled for dividend, at 1:1 to each ordinary share.

Posted by cktay > 2023-06-02 17:06 | Report Abuse

[Good to see dragon328 and observatory in this forum]

Getting some share pricing into perspective and what we may hope to expect in future

In 2013 and 2014, MCement (Lafarge)’s revenue was around RM700m per quarter and pre-tax RM120m per quarter and MCement (Lafarge) share price was around RM10 compared to present RM2.70

MCement Q3 results reported recently, Revenue was RM990m, pre-tax was RM63m
For HumeInd’s revenue was RM288m Profit was RM27m

(As some may know and what I am hoping) if HSR is launched, things are going to look a lot different for MCement.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-04 11:41 | Report Abuse

@cktay, as what you pointed out, Lafarge cement used to make RM120m pretax profit a quarter, now MCement is larger than the then Lafarge, hence higher revenue. If Mcement gets its cost hedging right, it is not surprising for it to make RM120m pretax every quarter.

Posted by sharkdododo > 2023-06-04 22:51 | Report Abuse

Turnaround time!

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-08 14:27 | Report Abuse

CIMB latest research report on MCement out today, tp raised to RM5.08 from RM3.97.

It forecasts free cashflows of around RM680 million for FY2024 and FY2025, supporting maiden dividend payouts from FY2024.

Posted by enning22 > 2023-07-03 11:20 | Report Abuse

property market sets for a total recovery, so cement industry will be benefitted

Posted by cheoky > 2023-07-03 22:38 | Report Abuse

cement industry in tailwind

Posted by Gun8811 > 2023-07-05 15:39 | Report Abuse

No dividend for past 7 years?

Posted by cktay > 2023-07-06 22:18 | Report Abuse

CIMB maintained its “add” call on Malayan Cement Bhd (MCement) with a higher target price (TP) of RM5.08, from RM3.97, amid stronger recovery in volumes.
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/670352
https://assets.theedgemarkets.com/pics/2023/20230608cement1.png
Quite a big jump for analyst Chong to make, from RM3.97 to RM5.08
(Still figuring out what my own TP should be)
Today’s Price : RM3.22
PE : 37.1 (PE will come down, Q1 EPS was 0.07s, Q2 1.16s, and Q3 4.83s if the quarterly profit trend continues)
NTA : RM4.48

Posted by cktay > 2023-07-06 22:19 | Report Abuse

To understand better …
In 2019, YTL bought a 51% stake in Lafarge Malaysia for RM1.63 billion cash, or RM3.75 per share, from AICL (Associated International Cement Ltd) which was on a divestment spree in the region.
Subsequently, a mandatory general offer (MGO) to buyout the remaining shares at RM3.75 per share.
The transaction price of RM3.75 per share was 19% above Lafarge Malaysia’s five-day volume weighted average share price of RM3.15
https://theedgemalaysia.com/article/ytl-cement-completes-acquisition-51-stake-lafarge-malaysia?
Subsequently in 2021, Malayan Cement took over YTL Cement's cement and ready-mixed concrete biz in RM5.16b deal (RM2b cash, shares plus preference shares at RM3.75)
https://www.edgeprop.my/content/1845373/malayan-cement-take-over-ytl-cements-cement-and-ready-mixed-concrete-biz-rm516b-deal
The aim was to consolidate the cement business under a singular umbrella, improving operational efficiencies, leveraging shared expertise, experience and resources.