Posted by hng33 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

MCEMENT major input cost fot manufactue cement is coal.

Import coal price is in USD. Selling finished priduct, cement is in RM.

USD have weaken by 9% since Jun from RM 4.72 to RM 4.33 now. The lower feedcost via currency weakness alone will boost Mcement profit significantly as cement selling price remain elevated unchanged.

Upcoming MRT3, Penang LRT, Johor BRT, HSR, booming Data center and China +1 semiconductor industry all will increase cement demand forward.

Posted by hng33 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

If check MCEMENT latest Q result, it cost of sale have decrease significantly, boosting it's Pretax profit margin to 40% from 30%. However, net profit increase only smaller due to one off impairment RM 131m. Stripping out the impairment, MCEMENT EPS in actual can deliver 16sen instead of 8sen.

Next coming Q result will be very interesting, if revenue sustain at current level, profit margin will further increase from current 40% to up to 45% due to significant 9% weaken USD cost currency on import cost coal. Next EPS could range 18sen-20sen

Posted by UlaSawa > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

this one wont go up. It will follow ytl trend.

Posted by UlaSawa > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

sell fast before it start crash again

Posted by hng33 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

added more Mcement at 4.70-4.77

Posted by ggleow > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

any stock link to ytl dont touch.

can limit down

Posted by sdgrte45eerw > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/dragon328/2024-05-23-story-h-161458128-YTL_YTL_Power_The_Best_Performing_Stocks_May_Again_Double_Up_in_AI_Driv https://hillclimb-racing.com
For leisure reading, you might want to explore and get acquainted with the parent company, YTL.

Posted by hng33 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Mcement debt level have trim down significantly due to strong cash flow generated RM 1.2 billion yearly. Mcement balance sheet will like turn net cash position in 1-2 year time. Higher dividend is expected

Posted by dragon328 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

@hng33, you really had a good spot here again after winning big in PBA. Indeed a sifu in stock picking!

MCement latest Q4 result shows that its debt level has reduced by RM600 million in a year, due to its super strong cash flows of RM930 million in FY2024.

Q4 net profit would have been much higher if not for an impairment of RM137m recognised in the quarter for plant and machinery at Rawang plant. Pretax profit would have been at RM281 million without the impairment and net profit about RM215 million or EPS of 16.2 sen.

Posted by dragon328 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Without the impairment, EPS would have been 16 sen a quarter, annualised to 64 sen for FY2025. At a conservative PER of 10x, MCement should be worth at least RM6.00.

Based on its operating cashflows of RM930 million a year, MCement would be valued at RM13.3 billion at 7% FCF yield, or RM9.90 per share as what I had initially projected back in 2022.

Posted by dragon328 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

As YTL owns some 73% stake in MCement, the surging profits at MCement will help to propel YTL earnings up in next few years and to push YTL share price to double up also by 2028.

Posted by hng33 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Dragon328
Yes, if without ome off impairments incur in Q4, it EPS will be 16sen.

Based on current strength in
RM against import feedstock, coal at USD cost and stabilise ongoing coal selling price, Mcement is expect deliver even better next Q profit forward.

Posted by hng33 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Upcoming MRT3, Penang LRT, JB BRT, HSR and more exposure in SARAWAK market aftet secure state gov import permit to expand cement market share to west Malaysia, Mcement also now is direct proxy to SARAWAK construction activities and may through SARAWAK also penetrate to kalimatam, new Nusatara capital

Posted by hng33 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Dragon
If compared between YTL and Mcement, i still prefer Mcement for its direct exposure instead of conglomerate which often need to trade at discount level.

Posted by hng33 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Market also have will give premium valuation to Mcement given fact that it is largest cement marker in Malaysia, control more than 60% whcih if including new market in SARAWAK, Mecemnt market share should even higher.

Posted by hng33 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Dragon
For direct utilities exposures - YTLP and PBA

For cement and building materials exposures - Mcement

For hospitality - YTLREITS

After stripping out above gem, YTL construction profit margin is too slim either external or internal work

Posted by dragon328 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Yes I agree with your arguments above.

But YTL is still cheap as a construction stock, if not seen as a conglomerate. YTL will be the key beneficial for the upcoming mega projects like MRT3 and HSR as one of the front runners to win the projects as a contractor.

Posted by hng33 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

locked profit, sold at 5.38-5.40