Tanker rates to carry liquefied natural gas (LNG) surged 15%-35% over the past week to more than $150,000 a day, as Asia’s recovering economies and strong demand during the peak winter season led to a clamour for scarce ships.
Colder weather in some parts of north Asia, coupled with a supply crunch globally, has caused spot Asian LNG prices to spike to multi-year highs.
In a filing with Bursa Malaysia, MISC said for the transaction, it has entered into Memorandum of Agreements (MOAs) with six indirect wholly-owned subsidiaries of Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co Ltd.
"The charters for the vessels are expected to commence in the fourth quarter of 2020. Samsung Heavy Industries Co Ltd and Hyundai Heavy Industries Co Ltd, both shipyards in Korea, are constructing three vessels each,” it added. - Bernama
MISC Berhad on course to become world’s largest ethane carrier operator
8 January 2021
Malaysia’s MISC Berhad has taken delivery of the second of six VLECs it is building in South Korea under long-term time charter contracts with Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co.
Now that we have passed 1st January 2020, the much anticipated global sulphur cap is finally a reality. The importance of this clean air initiative for global health is widely agreed and should not be under emphasised. Likewise, the critical role that LNG can play in clean air and global health initiatives must not be forgotten or trivialised as these are still matters of real concern to the world’s citizens. This time last year I said 2019 would be the year of acceleration for LNG, and it was! With increasing orders for LNG-fuelled vessels and LNG bunker vessels, together with expanding infrastructure shoreside to provide the critical last-mile delivery of LNG to ships; LNG as a marine fuel remains THE economic and environmental choice.
Increasingly too, LNG is seen as THE transition fuel to a net-zero carbon future. While we anticipate LNG as marine fuel will evolve into bio or synthetic methane, the LNG safety and operational guidelines, as well as infrastructure, will act as best practice for the adoption of alternative fuels over the longer term.
As attention now turns to the carbon emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050, we must recognise that, in 2020, we are well down the road from the 2008 baseline and there must be a pragmatic chronology to achieving a more sustainable, decarbonised future for shipping. The global deep sea fleet consists of more than 60,000 vessels with an average life expectancy well in excess of 25 years. This fleet, that fuels the economy – upon which we all depend – cannot be turned around overnight. This is precisely why there is increasing recognition and acceptance that LNG as a marine fuel must play a central role in transitioning to a zero carbon industry. LNG is the only commercially viable fuel widely available today.
"Increasingly too, LNG is seen as THE transition fuel to a net-zero carbon future."
THE ABOVE WILL REVIVE NOW in 2021....after IMO2020 effects on LNG demand were subdued by COVID 19 in 2020
Malaysia occupies third place in the list, with LNG exports of 33bcm in 2018. The country operates PETRONAS LNG Complex, an integrated LNG production complex and one of the world’s largest LNG production facilities in a single location.
With nine production trains, the PETRONAS LNG Complex has a production capacity of 29.3mtpa. PETRONAS Floating LNG (PFLNG) is another major facility that enables the processing of LNG to be carried out offshore. The PFLNG Satu is currently operating at Kanowit gas field, offshore Sarawak, while PFLNG Dua, the second floating LNG facility, is expected to be completed by 2020.
The country also operates Beryl Gas Field located in Block SK10 off the shore of Sarawak, Malaysia, near the Helang gas field and Layang oil field that are located within the same block.
Malaysia is also set to commence production from the Pegaga gas field, located in 108m of water in Block SK320 off the shore of Sarawak, in 2021. In July 2019, PTT Exploration and Production Public Company (PTTEP) discovered a large gas field with its first well on the SK410B block offshore Sarawak, Malaysia.
ya , i very curious rss volume no change but someone keep pressing the price for what ? that unknown guy out there , what is your game plan? washing people out then collect cheap ticket? because u know few more coming month the price will be spike up
KUALA LUMPUR (March 3): MISC Bhd, which is a 51%-owned subsidiary of Petroliam Nasional Bhd, has completed its maiden ethane cargo delivery, which is also the largest to-date in the history of ethane shipping at over 51,000 tonnes.
In a statement today, MISC said its first very large ethane carrier (VLEC) Seri Everest has completed the cargo discharge at Lianyungang port, Jiangsu province, China on Feb 28.
The cargo was loaded from Orbit Terminal, Nederland in the US last October where Seri Everest was the first VLEC to call on the new terminal, it added. The loading and discharge was managed by Eaglestar Shipmanagement Gas (S) Pte Ltd.
Seri Everest is chartered to Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co Ltd for a period of 15 years, alongside five other VLECs, MISC said.
MISC also took delivery of a second VLEC Seri Erlang in January this year, currently on its maiden voyage to the US. The shipping firm is expected to take delivery of the remaining four VLECs within the first half of 2021.
“The recent positive development of Seri Everest is certainly a landmark achievement, driven by the strong passion and dedication of her crew from Eaglestar and the various teams at site and shore,” said MISC president and group chief executive officer Yee Yang Chien.
“This successful feat is a testament to our expertise and commitment in moving energy. I would like to take this opportunity to thank Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co Ltd for their trust and confidence in us. We are certainly proud to support the growing needs of the ethane market and we look forward to sharing more developments as we progress further with our voyages in moving ethane safely and efficiently,” Yee added.
At end-2020, MISC Group’s fleet consisted of more than 100 owned and in-chartered vessels comprising liquefied natural gas (LNG), petroleum and product vessels, VLECs, 14 floating production systems (FPS), as well as two LNG floating storage units (FSU). The fleet has a combined deadweight tonnage capacity of more than 11 million tonnes.
“A new chapter is in the making as we make our entry into the global ethane market with these six VLECs and a new alliance in China. The acquisition of these six VLECs marks a milestone in MISC’s offerings for large scale ethane transport,” Yee Yang Chien, MISC’s President and CEO, commented.
“Adding to the strength and expansion of our existing fleets as well as diversifying our portfolios, we are now the proud owner of six VLECs – which are the largest vessels of its kind, aside from the existing seven VLECs in the world. As one of the only three owners of such vessels in the world, this new addition to our fleet would strengthen MISC’s competitive advantage in this segment.”
“Despite the current challenging market environment, MISC Group has been making notable strides; as part of our effort to diversify our portfolio, develop new solutions and enlarge our presence with the addition of new markets. The long-term charter parties are instrumental to the build up of our sustainable income stream,” he added.
“China and Malaysia have been having a very good relationship for quite a long time. Especially during the recent years, the cooperation between the two countries has been greatly increased,” Yang Weidong, Chairman and President of STL, pointed out.
MISC - Mild impact from 3 long-term Shell charters
We maintain BUY on MISC with an unchanged sum-of-parts based fair value of RM8.50/share, which reflects a premium of 3% from our ESG rating of 4 stars. This also implies an FY21F EV/EBITDA of 9x, at parity to its 2-year average.
MISC has secured long-term charter contracts to own and operate 3 newbuild LNG dual-fuel very large crude carriers (VLCCs) from Shell Tankers (Singapore) Pvt Ltd to operate in international waters for 7 years, commencing in 3Q2023.
A dual-fuelled LNG vessel, which has been retrofitted, is able to burn LNG as a bunker fuel. According to a Channoil Consulting-Gibson Shipbrokers study, VLCCs can save up to US$7.7K/day from using LNG instead of conventional bunker fuel that is compliant to the International Maritime Organization’s sulfur standards.
This is not the first time that MISC is involved in LNG dual-fuel petroleum VLCC tankers as the group had earlier secured 2 such charters from Total in April 2020, which are scheduled for delivery in 1H2022. Hence, these 3 new charters from Shell will increase the group’s VLCC fleet by 27% to 15 by 2023.
The announcement did not reveal the capex nor charter rates of the vessels. However, assuming a capex of US$6mil to add a dual-fuel LNG engine system to a newly built VLCC could raise the capex by 7% to US$94mil/vessel. As such, we expect that the total capex of US$282mil (RM1.2bil) for these 3 new vessels could be part of MISC’s growth capex of US$1bil annually.
Assuming 3-year VLCC charter rates of US$28K/day over 20 years and operating costs of US$6K/day, we estimate that these charters could generate a mild project IRR of 6% and slight impact to FY23F earnings. Hence, we maintain MISC’s FY21F–FY23F earnings.
Meanwhile, we expect tanker rates to remain depressed in 1H2021 due to the extension of Saudi Arabia’s quota in April this year and weak crude demand amid global tonnage rising by over 20mil dwt this year, partly offset by expectations of increasing demolition of old vessels after being offloaded from floating storage usage.
Nonetheless, we estimate that the additional construction earnings from the US$2bil Mero-3 FPSO project should be able to offset this main drag from the tanker segment in 1HFY21. By 3QFY21, with the global rollout of Covid-19 vaccinations, we are optimistic that improving economic growth prospects and rising transportation needs will support higher tanker rates towards the traditional seasonal end of the year.
The stock currently trades at a fair FY21F EV/EBITDA of 8x – 1 standard deviation below its 3-year average of 9x, while sustaining a compelling dividend yield of 5%.
KUALA LUMPUR (March 11): MISC Bhd has secured seven-year charter contracts from Shell for three newbuilding crude carriers, for operations in international waters. In a filing today, MISC said the contracts were secured by AET Inc Ltd, the vessel-owning entity of petroleum shipping firm AET Tanker Holdings Sdn Bhd, which is in turn wholly-owned by MISC. The three vessels are LNG dual fuel very large crude carriers (VLCCs), which will serve Shell’s unit Shell Tankers (Singapore) Pvt Ltd from the third quarter of 2023, the filing said. It is the first long-term contract announced by MISC this year. At end-2020, MISC Group’s fleet consisted of more than 100 owned and in-chartered vessels comprising liquefied natural gas (LNG), petroleum and product vessels, very large ethan carriers, 14 floating production systems, as well as two LNG floating storage units. The fleet has a combined deadweight tonnage capacity of more than 11 million tonnes.
“We are probably never going to experience a demand increase similar to what we are likely to see over the next nine months for tankers,” said Eirik Haavaldsen, a shipping analyst at Pareto Securities AS in Oslo. “Six months down the road, we will have higher OPEC+ production because the world is going to consume a lot more oil as vaccines take effect and economies recover.”
China’s smaller liquefied natural gas buyers are seizing on reforms that’ve opened access to import infrastructure to boost competition, issuing a spate of tenders for the fuel over the past month.
The second-tier gas firms, including Guangdong Energy Group Co. and Shenzhen Energy Group Co., are forecast to continue to seek more cargoes with spot LNG prices low, adding a new source of demand for global exporters, according to energy consultant FGE.
“We can expect more emerging Chinese players to be in the market for spot procurement in the coming months as China continues to open up its LNG receiving facilities,” said Alicia Wee, a senior analyst at FGE in Singapore.
Until recently, China imported most of its LNG through the three major state-owned energy giants, which owned pipelines, import terminals and distributed the fuel directly to smaller players. That’s changed with the formation of China Oil & Gas Pipeline Network Corp., known as PipeChina, which has consolidated the infrastructure into a single firm.
PipeChina has awarded over ten companies third-party access to its terminals, meaning smaller players can issue tenders directly when the need arises, instead of going through a larger state company, according to traders who requested anonymity to discuss private details.
Chinese gas firms are tapping into the spot market where fuel is cheaper Companies like Dongguan Daosen Natural Gas Co. which bought its first cargo via a direct tender this month, have been operating in domestic markets for years, according to Wood Mackenzie. Shenzhen Energy and Guangzhou Gas are among others to have bought cargoes in recent weeks.
While the infrastructure reforms are help diversify the field of importers, the majority of terminal access is still being awarded to the nation’s top buyers, including China National Offshore Oil Corp. and PetroChina Co. Terminal capacity available to third parties offered by PipeChina is 5.7 million tons per year, a fraction of China’s total capacity of 87 million tons per year at the end of 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie.
A further drop in Asian LNG prices could prompt another wave of spot cargo purchases by smaller firms this summer, said Beijing-based Wood Mackenzie research director Miaoru Huang.
The benchmark Japan-Korea marker fell to $5.56 per million British thermal units on March 2, the lowest level since last October, according to data from S&P Global Platts. Prices have since increased, in part on higher demand from the second-tier importers, and were trading on Monday around $6.70 for April delivery.
Smaller buyers are also signing more long-term deals. The firms accounted for 83% of total Chinese contracts signed last year, from a 26% share in 2019, according to BloombergNEF.
China’s Pursuit of Natural Gas Jolts Markets and Drains Neighbors Beijing’s quest to run world’s second-largest economy on cleaner energy is reshaping global trade in the fossil fuel
Beijing’s efforts to shift from coal to gas as a fuel over the longer term has drawn ever-larger liquefied natural gas imports
China’s quest to anchor its industrial growth to cleaner energy is whiplashing global prices of liquefied natural gas, reshaping trade in the world’s fastest-growing fossil fuel and raising fears of power blackouts in neighboring economies competing for the resource.
A sudden confluence of global supply outages and an unusually cold winter tripled LNG prices in mid-January to a record $32.50 a million British thermal units from early December—and brought into focus China’s increasingly outsize role.
Underpinned by its economic boom and rising presence in LNG spot markets, Beijing’s efforts to shift from coal to gas as a fuel over the longer term has drawn ever-larger LNG imports in recent years, tightening supplies available to gas-dependent neighbors Japan and South Korea. The three economies account for 60% of the world’s LNG consumption.
China’s voracity worsened a natural-gas shortage in January in Japan—which China last year outstripped as the world’s largest LNG importer—that put parts of Japan at risk of blackouts. In December, China imported 7.6 million metric tons, the most ever.
Utilities in Japan reported severe shortages of natural gas and averted blackouts by turning back to coal, oil and other older means of power generation.
Chinese LNG consumption rose last year by some 11%, far outpacing the 1% rise globally, data from consulting firm Wood Mackenzie shows. Imports meet about 45% of China’s demand, which has been rising since President Xi Jinping set around 2015 decadeslong plans to pipe natural gas into millions of Chinese homes and factories. Beijing views natural gas as a steppingstone—a cleaner fossil fuel—in its campaign for carbon neutrality by 2060.
Provincial authorities, including in southern Guangdong, began requiring more manufacturers to burn gas instead of coal last year, official reports say. And Beijing loosened rules in the past two years to allow more companies to import LNG, turning provincial gas distributors into more active bidders in spot markets once reserved for a handful of state-controlled giants.
“When you have an extreme need for supply and physically can’t deliver on it, then that underpins this type of price rallies.” said Jeffrey Moore, analytics manager at researcher S&P Global Platts.
China's drive for natural gas is driving recentprice volatility, eating into supplies for othereconomies and shaking up trade.
Prices for the fuel have fallen to around $6.30 MMBtu in mid-February, an 81% dive from January’s record, as the fading cold snap eased buying competition. Just weeks earlier, the outsize imports didn’t seem to be enough. Platts estimates show that LNG stocks in northeast Asia were 64% of capacity heading into winter, well below the 70% average in previous years, forcing buyers to the spot market.
Unexpected shutdowns of export plants in Australia, the world’s top producer, and elsewhere, meant Asia had to rely on imports that needed three times as many days—or more—to ship.
In late December, China’s top economic policy body ordered domestic gas producers to operate at capacity and LNG shipping terminals to give priority to imports. Authorities also had to fall back to coal-fired power and ordered more coal imports, too.
“We are doing everything possible to increase supply of the resource,” the National Development and Reform Commission said at the time. “We are making every effort to increase the purchase of spot LNG.”
In Japan, power plants in the heavily populated Kansai region were running at 99% of generation capacity; more than the usual 60% for LNG-fueled plants. Japan depends on natural gas for about a third of its electricity.
The strains on Japan’s grid forced operators to turn to old playbooks, including running some plants beyond capacity and, in the case of Tokyo-based utility Electric Power Development Co., burning crude oil for two days in January to keep up power generation.
The heady prices in January were profitable even at the height of the rally: In China, prices for end-use LNG trucked into metropolitan Beijing were 20% higher than imports. The gap widened in smaller and less-developed cities.
“Our biggest priority is to have stable supply, which means we purchase from the spot market when necessary,” said Korea Gas Corp. spokesperson Kim Chi-ho. “This year, our spot purchases increased due to unexpected cold waves."
Like most of its counterparts, state-owned Kogas locks in more than half its LNG supply through long-term contracts but relies on the spot market to meet sudden demand.
China has been buying ever-larger imports of LNG from Australia, the world's largest supplier, which has been shipping relatively less to Korea and Japan in recent years. Australia LNG exports
China’s huge presence has chipped away at its neighbors’ supplies. For years, Australia has been the top exporter to Japan, accounting for about a third of its LNG imports. But last year, Japan imported 26.3 million metric tons from Australia, down from each of the previous two years. Australian LNG shipments to China rose 5% year over year to a record 29 million metric tons last year.
Korean data shows that Australian LNG imports have stayed largely flat since 2018. Korea began looking elsewhere for shipments in recent years. The U.S. share of Korea’s LNG imports has risen to 14% in 2019 from 1% in 2016, after Kogas agreed in 2017 to long-term supply by Houston-based Cheniere Energy Inc.
But China, too, is shipping more from the U.S., with imports reaching a record 3.2 million metric tons last year, up 50% from 2018.
China’s gas demand is set to keep rising, underpinning the potential for supply shocks to turn prices volatile in coming years.
“Even before winter, there were a lot of policies to hasten infrastructure investment” in China’s LNG storage and connectivity, said Woodmac analyst Miaoru Huang. “But I think after this price spike, there will be renewed incentive to advance the build.”
Aframax freight rates on key ex-Asia routes have reached w90 for the first time in 2021 on the back of tight supply as several ships clean up to load refined products, many ballast to the Mediterranean and cracking margins improve for refining light crudes, market participants said March 4.
The benchmark Persian-Gulf-East route was assessed at w90 March 3, up 24% week on week, S&P Global Platts data showed.
Rates on ex-Asia routes had hovered below w70 earlier in the year, dragging down the earnings of owners to negative, and further gains are potentially in the offing. If OPEC+ opts to increase crude output at its meeting later in the day, the Aframax freight market could receive a further boost, one broker said.
This year, it signed agreements to supply LNG vessels to Exxon Mobil Corp and Mitsubishi Corp, after the world’s biggest LNG exporter Qatar Petroleum set off a “stampede” by announcing plans to order as many as 100 new carriers, he said.
The cargo was loaded onto the Seri Camar LNG Carrier operated by MISC Bhd for shipment to Petronas LNG Buyer in Thailand, it said in a statement today.
"Similar to our flagship floating facility, PFLNG Dua's mobility will allow us to unlock even more marginal and stranded gas fields in the future, providing Petronas with new and sustainable sources of LNG to meet the growing demand for cleaner energy," he added.
The canal blockage is certainly not bad news for everyone — spot freight rates are set to jump even higher on pent-up demand, making money for the operators, market watchers say.
“A more prolonged closure of the Suez Canal would see container shipping as the biggest beneficiary, while tanker, dry bulk and air cargo might also see some higher rates,” wrote JPMorgan, describing the tightening of shipping rates “as a upside risk.”
Who is set to benefit most? JPMorgan highlights Asian liners, saying that despite higher bunker costs due to longer rerouted journeys and increased congestion, they expect higher spot freight rates. “This instead of hurting profitability is expected to be positive for bottom-line for Asia liners, in our view,” the bank wrote.
The Ever Given ship has been freed in the Suez Canal, after being stuck for nearly a week. The Ever Given ship was dislodged by an Egyptian crew in the Suez Canal early Monday morning, after it was stuck for nearly a week, reports say.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Posted by fortheemprah > 2021-02-25 16:43 | Report Abuse
MISC trading pattern quite insane. Price jump up and down 2 bids in transaction. It's like there are two dudes sitting in front of the computer trying to have the final say.