As long as illicit cigratte stay at high levels, BAT and all legal players are bound to be affected. 65% illicit market share as of Oct 19. Let's see if it will grow more by Oct 20.
Posted by CatchThe Bull > Jan 6, 2020 4:39 PM | Report Abuse
14.60 is the lowest price for this round of downtrend. Bottoming almost complete and strong foundation here, prepare for strong rebound soon. If you have extra money, park here. No regret.
Posted by CatchThe Bull > Jan 6, 2020 4:39 PM | Report Abuse
14.60 is the lowest price for this round of downtrend. Bottoming almost complete and strong foundation here, prepare for strong rebound soon. If you have extra money, park here. No regret.
sigh, this is actually saddening this just shows how incompetent our govt is in handling illicit ciggies, or they are actually allowing them for some reasons, which shall not be mentioned. if continue to be like this, more companies are leaving here to do biz.
The initial privatisation offer was RM7.80 per share (March 2014), which was subsequently revised to RM8.20 per share (May 2014), implying a forward PER
Now, assuming that long term wise, BAT can only make 200m a year, which is about 38% down from current earnings.
As they pay out all earnings as dividends, valuation becomes quite "straightforward".
This would translate to around a value of RM4.4bil, if discounted at 4.5%. Given current enterprise value of around RM4bil.
You have about 10% margin of safety.
Now, if the Malaysian govt, actually crackdown hard on illegal cigarettes, or even just ban transshipment of cigarettes and only have one port of entry of import of cigarettes, more than half of the problem for illegal cigarettes will be solved, causing earnings to go back up.
The question now is, will the govt do that?
Or is corruption too entrenched, and political will lacking (smokers are a significant part of the voting base)
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Baby Shark
5,914 posts
Posted by Baby Shark > 2020-01-20 12:31 | Report Abuse
Rm2.00 you nangis kuat kuat..