bravoUp, I really doubt my mathematics skill to get 1.5b shares.
1. Existing share - 230m 2. After 1:5 bonus - 46m 3. OR - max 286m 4. Warrant - max 57m 5. ICUL 289m unit, after conversion - max 212m
Total shares after OFS & rights & warrants & bonus - around 830m shares.
Of course, RCUL-A and RCUL-B and further exercises are yet to know. And therefore after RCULS, the mother shares will become more than 1.5b, maybe up to 2.0b?
Huh? 2.0 billion? That even worst.... might as well make it 3 billion like hubline hahaha....... Mr market going to punish these people.... * I get 1.52 billion as stated in prospectus and don't go further detail on it (as always my argument will be supported with fact and figure).
The numbers I get from prospectus too. The bonus will not cover the LR, OR and Warrant as stated in prospectus, and I believe the 1.5b shares will only happen after RCUL-A and RCUL-B.
1st Paragraph, Page 48, Section 12.5 – Procedures for sale and/or transfer of the Provisional Allotments of Rights Existing: The Provisional Allotments of Rights are renounceable and will be traded on Bursa Securities commencing 15 September 2014 until 23 September 2014 at 5.00 p.m.. Amended: The Provisional Allotments of Rights are renounceable and will be traded on Bursa Securities commencing 15 September 2014 until 22 September 2014 at 5.00 p.m..
1st Paragraph, Page 54, Section 13.5 – Procedures for sale and/or transfer of the Provisional Offer of ICULS Existing: The Provisional Offer of ICULS are renounceable and will be traded on Bursa Securities commencing 15 September 2014 until 23 September 2014 at 5.00 p.m.. Amended: The Provisional Offer of ICULS are renounceable and will be traded on Bursa Securities commencing 15 September 2014 until 22 September 2014 at 5.00 p.m..
To make sure the cheating get more victims on Bursa for LR: 1) Reference price on the first day is put as 41.5 cents even though the reference suppose to be 26 cent. This catch the attention of the investing public as some think it is a buy after 60 discount from reference price. The LR is the second most active counter on Monday 15/9/2014 and close limit down at 11.5 cent with 110 million LR traded. The LR again become second active counter on the second trading day with 90 mill LR trade. 2)Announcement of bonus issue is made 1 trading day before the listing of the LR / OR (Bursa probably unaware or just overlook) 3)LR/OR is listed for 6 tradings days,... it supposed to be listed for 5 trading days only (newbies do not know this) 4) The amendment on OR/LR made last minute (just before 1 day of trading)....that suppose to be amended on the first day.
====> As a result many investing public get slaughtered.......
Forever.... just want to let u know...if you buy 1 million LR (10,000 lot) at 0.03 you need to pay rm30,000 + 500,000 = rm530,000.00 to subscribe the ICUL. That is more than half a million ringgit.
If you don't have the rm500,000.00 ..your rm30,000 will become 0 (you lose the entire rm30,000). LR last day trade is on Monday 22/9/2014...after that no more LR.
Not to scare you or anything (because it your money ...up to you)...just to make sure you are aware of it.
Forever is a millionaire that ok for him. Anybody have less than 1 million cash in account don't ever try to follow him buying 1 million LR.... This beast is different from other LR/OR because it is actively trade with huge supply. In case you plan to contra you needs another gambler millionaire to buy from you.
Looks like issued shares will reach 1.4b, near to what bravoUp described. But in reality, that should happen only after a few years, maybe in 2018/2019?? In the short term, the increase is only from 229.0m to 618.2m (rights+bonus). To reach 1.4b, will need shareholders to convert 68.7m warrants, 651.6m ICULS (443.1m shares), and 402m RCULS (254.3m shares). RCULS is held by major shareholders, and conversion can only begin in Sep 2015. Half of all ICULS also controlled by major shareholders. In total, major shareholders control about 60% of all new shares to be created after the rights+bonus issue. And by converting ICULS and RCULS, the major shareholders will have a lot of value to gain from the public. Do you think they want to see share price hit bottom, equalling to zero gain for them? From this inference I think they will only convert over a few years period. BravoUp what are your views?
LR is a good buy now ,because it traded at discount, after subscribe for LA, and If LA does reach the required public spread, it might not be listed, in that case you can just convert to mother share and sell it, and it is very STUPID to hold mother share or buy mother share now, because if you have mother share you should swap it to LR , because 10,000 mother shares can become about 14,000 mother share while if you hold the 10,000 mother shares , after getting your bonus, you only get 12,000 units instead of about 14,000 units.
((((BravoUp: 2)Announcement of bonus issue is made 1 trading day before the listing of the LR / OR (Bursa probably unaware or just overlook) 3)LR/OR is listed for 6 tradings days,... it supposed to be listed for 5 trading days only (newbies do not know this) 4) The amendment on OR/LR made last minute (just before 1 day of trading)....that suppose to be amended on the first day.))))
BravoUp, personally don't see much big issue with these things..Any major cause for concern? because the bonus issue must have been approved by shareholders and also announced to Bursa much earlier. The LR/OR listing for 6 days can be taken on the cover page of the prospectus and also on the application forms. Amendment on OR/LR trading date is errata for some details in the prospectus for avoidance of doubt. But normally majority of people should have followed the dates stated on prospectus cover and also the application forms. Personally don't see any big issue with these, although the oversight on the errors in the prospectus create some doubt on the merchant bank and the company's QC. Although it is understood that IB work crazy hours but a material typo, seriously?
If mother share remains at that say 1.10, after bonus it becomes (1.1x5)/6 =91.6 cents, do not listen those who are talking rubbish that it will fall to 68 cents, the sell down of LR is that LR holders were told that after converted to LA and LA might not be listed due to insufficient public spread of 25 %
The way I see it, based on textbook calculation worst case scenario it could drop to 68 sen, if 50% of ICULS are converted (221m new shares), which is very very unlikely. So worst case scenario is a breakeven scenario, but those who bought high for LR will have different risk scenario. But how will Mr Market value the stock eventually is hard to say.
the simultaneous buying and selling of securities, currency, or commodities in different markets or in derivative forms in order to take advantage of differing prices for the same asset. "Here we look at the concept of arbitrage, how market makers utilize ‘true arbitrage,’ and, finally, how retail investors can take advantage of arbitrage opportunities ..
some may too lazy or too poor in mathematics .. : )
Judging from the active trade of the LR (possibly 400 million in 5 trading days --- more than 300 mill in the first 4 days) and the fact that the ICUL can be converted to share anytime it is expected many of new ICUL holders will convert immediately or in a near future. Take a round figure issue share probably close to 1 billion in near term (end 2014 / early 2015). At 1 billion issue, NA per share is estimate around 75-78 cent. (rough estimate based on 71 cent/ per share at 1.13 billion share issue as mention in prospectus).
(*Current NA per share for IBhd before this exercise is rm2.24 based on 229 mill issue share)
Whether the mr market want to value it at NTA or above or lower I am not very sure. To be safe value it at NA value. Another concern this share is thinly trade with not much volume in the past and huge issue share after this exercise might put downward pressure to the share price. (*Many property listed company trade trade below NTA as property sector are cycle in nature) Take note also unlike I City which provide constant income for IBhd...their next project/new project are subject to property cycle in nature.
That my 2 cent view....and also I seriously think that I Bhd LR is really one of the scary beast ever listed on Bursa especially when it is actively trade and many retailers don't understand what they are dealing with.
A listed issue which is active and cheap normally attract newbies and many of them do not know what kind of beast they are dealing with. That should be the concern as it involve investing public. Rich guy like tjh and forever should not be a problem because they are millionaire.
If anyone plan to buy LR I just want to give a friendly reminder.....if you buy 1 million LR (10,000 lot) for example at 0.03 you need to pay rm30,000 + 500,000 = rm530,000.00 to subscribe the ICUL. That is more than half a million ringgit.
If you don't have the rm500,000.00 ..your rm30,000 will become 0 (you lose the entire rm30,000). LR last day trade is on Monday 22/9/2014...after that no more LR.
*Pls note that several hundred million LR probably still in the hand of someone and they probably want to dispose it by Monday 22/5/2014 unless they are millionaire and they don't have any other counter to buy/invest.
If anybody make money out of bullying, cheating others especially those less knowledgeable like market newbies.... believe me.. KARMA will punish you....
Greedy shareholders will be punish by mr market and market will remember the slaughter on LR buyer because it is actively trade.
Market will remember this ...as our market consist of the very same people. Newbies come from time to time and losers will left the market. Experience traders / investors will remember the mass slaughter of the investing public and will shy away from the counter.
Anybody think they are getting an offer to buy the share at 69 cent...they probably need to rethink.... because after the entire exercise NTA will be less than 69 cent.... as stated in the prospectus.
There a hundreds of counter listed in Bursa trade below NTA...
air... If you buy rm30,000 worth of share and it become rm20,000 that still normal and acceptable But, if you buy rm30,000 of LR and it become 0....(because you don't have the additional rm500,000 to subscribe)
Then i think it should be a concern....and someone with knowledge should inform the ones less knowlegeable....
bravoup, why you are so concern about peoples buying the LR, are you the one is going to apply for huge amount of excess iculs ????? I see you are working very hard these few days , just to discourage the public from buying LR ? what is your main motive behind? to get huge amount of LA through excess application ?
bravoUp, you are too concerned about others that I started to get "concerned" about you.
Sorry to say, that blind traders will always be blind no matter what advice or knowledge given to them, simply because of mindset problem. Why would traders read the prospectus before they trade? Simply because they don't know what all these LR, OR, etc mean, and simply because they know price, buy, sell only.
cytew.... if you want to take up the LR go on and the company welcome you. In fact they try very hard to lure you in including fake 41.5 cent reference price on the first trading to make sure the LR look cheap after discount. Yet nobody want as it required huge cash money. It cheap now. Several hundreds million change hands and it is getting cheaper and cheaper. Your entry at least relief some of those without cash to subscribe to dispose today (last day). Because it needs a millionaire to subscribe 10, 000 lot LR and as it require over half a million ringgit cash. Me want to get huge excess application? No, i am not a interested at all.
By the way, why are you so eager to to get people to buy LR? So that you can dispose million of LR in hand. Yeah today is your last day to do so and good luck to you.
bravoup, why you are so silly , just like a layman in the street,think out of box, when most peoples do have cash to take up to subscribe, then only is a GREAT opportunity for us, if when every body also can see the opportunity , then it is not a good opportunity,i will buy 100 units of LR, and then apply for one million units of LA through EXCESS application since everybody is not interested,so i would have GOOD success rate, no worry I had been buying LR, OR and WR over last 30 years since bursa started to trade renounceable rights in early 1990s.
balravoUp please explain how you get 0.415 sen reference price? Also for the NTA the prospectus did not state that it will go below 69 sen as you have claimed. In the near term the maximum scenario is only a decline from 1.37 to 1.17 assuming full exercise of warrants, which is very unlikely. The next stage is a decline to 0.71, which is also very unlikely because it requires ALL public holders of ICULS to convert into approximately 220m new shares, not to mention the major shareholder is controlling the other half all the ICULS in issue, will they want to exercise all and risk the share price bottoming and thus zero gain for them? And for your claimed 69 sen it only happens theoretically if RCULS are fully converted, which can only start to be converted from Sep 2015 onwards, and also note that it is controlled by the major shareholder. So these will only theoretically happen after a few years down the road, and also is based on the flawed assumption that the asset base remains stagnant, do you not think the assets of a growth stage company will not increase over the next few years but remain stagnant?
While your intention is good, your biasness of reporting certain info does make it seem like you're trying to fear monger for some personal vendetta.
You have been repeating the same issue for many times. But Why limit and fear monger by how much funds will eventually be hit with with only small lots of LR? Can't it be the other way round? Say I have 100k to invest so I work backwards to see how many LR I should buy?
The 41.5 cent reference price --- is the reference price on the first trading of ICUL...it close limit down at 11.5 cent on first trading days. The reference should be 26 cent taking into consideration adjustment price from bonus issue.
NTA 69 cent is mentioned in the prospectus...after completion of the exercise. Yes growth possibly but not that as of what we see now since the share issue have increase tremendously.
ok if someone have 100k to invest and have no other counter to buy because fall in love already....can buy around 2000 lot LR. But look at the volume...that 2000 lot don't make a change, while seller keep growing (not enough money to convert). This beast is heavily traded with volume on the back of thinly trade IBhd. It is not like Aramada OR or any others in which the ratio is reasonable and not on active list.
Mkt can't absorb it as yet...supply far exceed demand (5:1 ratio for LR)....it is a great shock to the mkt even to shareholders as company demand too much cash from shareholders/mkt.
Dear bravoUp, why don't we just focus on work and wait for announcement? It's only 3 weeks from now, then at that time we know the take up percentage of ICUL, then we can conclude instead of doing it now. Whether listed or not doesn't affect much if all are to be converted to mother shares.
bravoUp, for the NTA matter you are providing info based on the the highly unlikely scenarios, and even if such scenarios do somehow play out, they will only happen after a few years down the road, which also assumes all things are constant i.e. zero growth in the company. This is a completely biased and unfair representation of the company.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
bravoUp
541 posts
Posted by bravoUp > 2014-09-20 02:18 | Report Abuse
What Pika? Algebra form 2?..... Errrr..... go and check that guy education level...