Plantation - Key Takeaways From Globoil's Webinar Date: 9th October 2020
Solvent Extractors Association of India organised a webinar yesterday titled “World Price Outlook for Vegetable Oils and Meals”. There were three speakers i.e. Thomas Mielke from Oil World, Dorab Mistry from Godrej International and James Fry from LMC International. Here are the key takeaways from the webinar: -
James Fry said that rains and good palm prices would encourage better estate maintenance in Malaysia and Indonesia, leading to improved palm production in year 2021F. Rains would boost CPO supply in early-2021F and in the meantime, there would be a seasonal pick-up in production in 4Q2020. Peak palm production may be delayed by a month or two from the usual month of October or November in Malaysia.
In terms of demand, many companies in the HORECA sector (hotels, restaurants and catering) may not survive without government support. Families in low income countries may be trading down to smaller bottles of cooking oil. James Fry did not give a price forecast.
Thomas Mielke said that CPO prices may hover around US$700/tonne (RM2,905/tonne) in 1H2021. He forecasts global production of palm oil to increase by 3.5mil to 4mil tonnes in 2021F. CPO output in Indonesia is estimated to rise by 3mil tonnes in 2021F from about 43mil tonnes in 2020E. Thomas Mielke expects CPO production in Malaysia to be flat in 2021F.
He added that global soybean supply is ample currently in spite of weather-related losses in the US. He expects world soybean supply to increase by 21mil tonnes in 2020E/2021F as Brazil is envisaged to record a record output of 132.5mil tonnes (2019/2020E: 126.5mil tonnes).
Dorab Mistry believes that CPO production in Malaysia would be flat at 19.9mil tonnes in 2020E compared with market expectations of a decline. We believe that this implies that 4Q2020 production would be strong as Malaysia’s CPO output fell by 4.7% YoY in 8M2020. He did not give a production forecast for 2021F although he said that palm supply would be good.
Dorab has suggested a dynamic biodiesel mandate to the Indonesia government whereby if CPO prices exceed US$600/tonne, the biodiesel mandate would be reduced to B25 from B30. If CPO prices exceed US$700/tonne, the biodiesel mandate would be reduced further to B20. With this, the biodiesel mandate would still be implemented but at the same time, the smallholders would not be affected by the CPO export levy. Currently, Indonesia implements the B30 biodiesel mandate with subsidies from the CPO export levy of US$55/tonne.
looking for low pe oilpalm stocks?bumitama 48.5cts.sg(p8z.sg)half year eps 2.3cts.sg.total planted areas 187,679ha,which were 132,578ha nucleus and 55,101ha plasma and average age 10.6years.km loong and sarawak plantation,after ta ann took over sarawak plantation management,the efficency increase dramatically to boost up net margin.must be patient.........
yup. agree with u. even last QR CPO price around 2400++ lots of plantation companies already earning big. Can consider go for better fundamental one like SOP, Taann, swkplt..... which has healthier balance sheet. JTIASA, rsawit, TDM, THplant debts are quite high
VERY GOOD FOR JAYATIASA PLANTATION NOT AFFECTED BY FLOOD IN SARAWAK LOH!
Indonesia gears up for heavy rainfalls as La Nina phenomenon comes INDONESIA Saturday, 17 Oct 2020
Motorists take shelter from heavy rain under a bus shelter on Jl. Sudirman in South Jakarta. - Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency has expected parts of the country to experience an anomalous intensity of rainfall in the near future. - The Jakarta Post/ANN
JAKARTA, Oct 17 (Xinhua): Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency has expected many parts of the country to experience an anomalous intensity of rainfall in the near future.
They include provinces of Lampung, South Sumatra, West Sumatra, Bengkulu, Riau, among others, head of the agency Dwikora Karnawati said on Saturday (Oct 17) after attending a virtual cabinet meeting.
On the La Nina phenomenon, Karnawati pointed out that in the October-November period, the phenomenon would affect most of the Indonesian areas except Sumatra.
"Although La Nina will not affect Sumatra, the intensity of monthly downpours is high as it could reach 400 millimeters per month occurring from the tip of Aceh province to the southern tip of Lampung province," she noted.
Indonesian President Joko Widodo has called on relevant authorities to anticipate and gear up for possible natural disasters and La Nina's impacts on various sectors in Indonesia.
"Impacts of La Nina on agricultural products should be well calculated. The same should also be done on the sectors of fisheries and transportation," the president told a cabinet meeting in Jakarta on Tuesday.
So far this year, the National Disaster Mitigation Agency recorded 2,256 natural disasters including floods, whirlwinds, landslides and forest fires, which left 307 people dead, 25 missing and 469 injured.
The disasters also damaged 34,100 houses, 641 educational facilities, 672 houses of worship and 131 health facilities.
The Jakarta Post, reported that seven neighborhood units (RTs) in South Jakarta and West Jakarta were inundated after a heavy downpour in the capital on Friday afternoon.
Jakarta Disaster Mitigation Agency official Insaf said two RTs in Bangka subdistrict, South Jakarta, and five others in Srengseng, North Sukabumi, and Kebon Jeruk, West Jakarta, were flooded until 5pm on Friday (Oct 16).
“The flooding ranged from 10 to 70 centimeters in depth. Despite the flooding, no residents have taken shelter yet, ” Insaf said on Friday, as quoted by kompas.com.
In addition to the seven RTs, at least 19 roads in the city were flooded, including Pramuka in Matraman, East Jakarta, and Ciledug Raya in South Jakarta.
The Meteorological, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) warned that torrential rain accompanied by lightning and strong winds would hit many parts of the country between Friday and Sunday.
The agency previously warned that the ongoing La Nina weather phenomenon could increase total precipitation in Indonesia by up to 40 per cent until February 2021.
La Nina, a periodic cooling of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, tends to cause extreme weather in the archipelago. The BMKG has warned authorities that continuous extreme weather could result in flooding and landslides in many parts of the country.
you know what environment impact soya beans plantation i watch on video .... there is no any animals at all lmao. palm oil plantation you still can find animals inside.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Mabel
24,511 posts
Posted by Mabel > 2020-10-09 18:57 | Report Abuse
Me too ...Jtiasa is one of my 11 Plantations
It's been good to me..
Thank you Calvin!
Meow Meow Meow