My company recently hold a forum of climate change and we have expert to talk about climate change and MPOB and an economist/analyst as special guest. the take away from the forum is due to the el nino and hotter climate, palm oil yield will drop because apparently the tree will change from female to male. Hence less fruits. Also, there is a palm oil disease which is garnoderma which is a concern to palm oil player. All of this lead to lower crops produce. Hence they expect palm oil price to increase.
Windfall tax will kick in when oil plam price above Rm2500 for peninsular and 3K for Sabah and Sarawak. Currently the peninsular are subjected to windfall tax and also recent increase in foreign labour fee but sabah and sarawak is not affected at the moment.
The analyst mentioned that palm oil demand will increase due to festive season is around the corner and hot weather will probable last till jun will help to lift the price.
Based on the above, which is the best palm oil stock to buy??
EI Nino bring dual impact......it cause spike in CPO price......but it also resultant low in fresh palm oil production.....Jtiasa latest production yield data show slump down more than 50% in CPO production compared to immediate previous quarter
Don't need to trust Calvintaneng. Just buy what you think is good for you.
Hng33,
My Johor Buddies who owned lots of Oil Palm lands in Johor told me these past few months harvest were poor. But it will pick up again. Same scenario was repeated in 97/98 & 07/08.
So CPO is on track for Rm3,000 a ton.
Today, on market weakness I switched more counters into Plantation stocks.
Yup, because of EL Nino, production is low, therefore plantation stock cannot immediate capitalize on high CPO now as it offset by low yield.
Longer term, if EL Nino effect neutralize, production yield will pick up, but will CPO price remain high? Then, must analyses the degree of correlation between CPO price hike is like to low yield resultant from El Niño or CPO price hike is due also to increase demand and expand in export market
El Nino hit both Palm Oil & Soy Oil production. So Vege Oil Price goes up!
Then when El Nino ends La Nina arrives!
La Nina will wipe off all new soy plant but not Oil Palm trees. So CPO Price will remain at elevated level.
El Nino cause the relentless evaporation of moisture from earth.
When weather finally cool off. All the Rain Clouds will suddenly Crash back to earth in ferocity - wiping off all young plants & trees below 5 feet tall. Only Oil Palms are spared.
It takes 6 mths for d flowers to germinate into fruits.Current drop in ffb due to elnino happened 6mths ago d present weather is going to affect d crop for d next 1yr.Global warming has started n there is no end for this as commonsense will tell that daily trees r being felled n no one to one replacement n at this rate not only yield is going to be affected even human r going to die due to heat wave but nothing being done.To save d oil palm industry stop chopping trees instead with good agro practise try to improve d yield on d existing land.If you can remember, Unilever a foreign Co having Palmol estate in sabah was only getting 21mt of fruit n cost of production also high so they sold to IOI n they proved with 30mt n sacked all d excecutives etc n this became a talk of d industry.
Now I got info, that the new MD a senior planter is going to be appointed, a brown skinned personal n he has to turnaround fgv.Currently 90% tress r old n have to go on intensive replanting.Please understand anybody can replant but at the end of the 5th yr of planting you should get a yield above 25mt in peninsular, is only achievable, with good agro practise, replanting cost must be kept to a minimum otherwise, go on bank borrowing n Co goes bankrupt.We need very hardworking comitted planter n not exMB Isa becomes d MD who know nuts about Oil Palm, a lot of nonsense going on the oil palm industry. Do you know S... on huge debts?
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
ryanze
86 posts
Posted by ryanze > 2016-03-22 16:48 | Report Abuse
usd-myr back to 4.01