paktua,during trying times like now,it is imperative pmx push the HSR to boost our economy,cant rely too much externally,after all govt is not spending a single sen on hsr as it is a private initiative
paktua,as soon israeli war is near the end mkts will move again,nov to jan are always the best months for mkts,n this war will not last long as the power balance is too lopsided
I think the recent drops in YTL share price are due to market disappointment on MRT3 project not included in 2024 budget and the risks of Israel-Palestine conflict escalating.
On the first concern, MRT projects are usually not included in the budget as these are Prasarana projects funded off the balance sheet. As the bid validity has been extended to 31 Dec 2023, I think that MRT3 project award may still come out in next 2 months.
On the second concern, I think the likelihood of Israel-Palestine conflicts escalating to regional war is quite low, as it will not serve US interests well. I expect it to be contained within Gaza strip but only time will tell. Foreign fund managers will sit on the sideline until the situation becomes clearer. Meanwhile, I suspect it is the local shorties who have been pushing down YTL and YTLPower shares for short term gains. However, such net short positions are reducing every week as share price gets lower. Soon the shorties will have to cover their positions.
This HSR project keep on delay and don’t know this project still on the track or not. if next month quarterly report not good, you will price below 1 anytime.
The proposed injection of Hotel Stripes in KL from YTL to YTL Hosp REIT for RM138 million has become unconditional. YTL will soon receive cash of RM138 million which will add to its coffer for the proposed RM1.0 billion dividend for FY2024.
Yes there may have been some panic selling in past few days on YTL shares, but I don't see any change in fundamentals. The earnings outlook is still good for next few quarters, operating cashflows remain strong and YTL is on track to distribute RM1.0 billion for FY2024.
MRT3 project award is still on track by end of the year, and HSR is also on track in the RFI stage followed by meeting with Singapore counterpart end of the year or early next year.
MCement is also on track to deliver stronger earnings in coming quarters driven by strong bulk cement selling price and dropping coal prices, irrespective of whether MRT3 or HSR project will go ahead or not.
There are still a number of unlisted assets under YTL to be monetised or injected into the REIT, after the proposed injection of Hotel Stripes is complete.
As of 20 Oct 2023, the net short position on YTL is zero, meaning that shorties have closed out short positions on YTL as its share price has corrected substantially (over 25% from a peak of RM1.71 to now RM1.26), so the downside is limited.
From the chart, I see RM1.28 as a good support which is the 21-week moving average, and expect the weekly close on this Friday to be supported at this level.
The day to day share price fluctuations are hard to predict and hard to explain, affected by many factors mostly speculative actions. As long as the company fundamentals remain strong, earnings higher than last year, dividend on track for 9.0-9.5 sen for FY2024 (which will provide dividend yield of over 7% at share price of RM1.28), I see good chances for YTL share price to rebound in coming months to retest previous high of RM1.71.
That's all I can say. Have a good evening and good luck to all.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
paktua73
18,195 posts
Posted by paktua73 > 2023-10-19 11:17 |
Post removed.Why?